1926 Chandler Francis Houdina version.

Transcription

1 1926 Chandler Francis Houdina version.

2 CLOUD CAR AND THE CAR IN THE CLOUD THE DIGITAL TRANSFORMATION OF THE MOBILITY INDUSTRY HENRY TIRRI EIR, Aalto University Senior Advisor BBVA & SAMSUNG & Siris Capital

3 WHY?

4 BECAUSE DIGITALIZATION IN THE WORLD WE LIVE IN BITS EAT ATOMS. EVERY DAY. NOW BITS ARE EATING TRANSPORTATION. AND WE HAVE A PERFECT STORM.

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6 PROGRAMMABLE WORLD OBJECT COMPUTING Cloud Evolution Miniaturization Android Based Automotive Platform ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE HAD Voice Control Machine / Deep Learning & Analytics SENSORS / ACTUATORS AUGMENTED REALITY Digital Cockpit Augmented Audio envh CYBERSECURITY /BLOCKCHAIN Networked Audio/Video CONNECTIVITY

7 CLOUD CAR

8 PERFECT STORM CUSTOMER OWNERSHIP CAN CHANGE. ENTRY BARRIERS CAN DISAPPEAR. PLATFORM OWNER CAN CREATE THE RULES FOR OTHERS IN THE ECOSYSTEM. ADAS & AUTONOMOUS DRIVING CONNECTED CAR ELECTRIFICATION SHARING ECONOMY RISE OF CHINA Value shifting to SW/algorithms/AI Data players own assets that OEMs need Changing regulatory environment UX change Platformization end of walled garden infotainment Emergence as part of consumer digital life ecosystem New (car data) service ecosystem Lowered entry barrier for engine construction New tech control points (battery) New infrastructure emergence Business model disruption New customers Building bridges to FinTech Different ecosystem (Tencent, Baidu,..) Emerging to lead the key business model and tech drivers

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10 KITT (Knight Industries Two Thousand) 1982 LEVEL 4 AUTONOMOUS DRIVING: HIGH AUTOMATION MECHANICAL STEERING AND TRANSMISSION INTERFACES CONNECTED CAR TECHNOLOGY (CAN DO SEARCHES. CONTACTS ENTITIES) CONTEXTUAL ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE NATURAL LANGUAGE VOICE INTERFACE MACHINE VISION, AUDIO AND OLFACTORY BASED SENSING GAS COMBUSTION ENGINE WITH SILENT MODE (SIMILAR TO ELECTRIC CAR); 0 TO QUARTER MILE SECONDS

11 Lexus 2019 has

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13 WAYMO 3.5M MILES UNDER THEIR OWN GUIDANCE. EVERY DAY 10M VIRTUAL MILES.

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15 Autopilot, 500 miles and hauling lbs. Logistics is increasing, not enough drivers. Peloton Technology plans platooning trucks that can travel in packs and talk to each other via radio waves Starsky Robotics (SV) puts the driver behind a screen, in a call center to navigate the complex situations. New megacharger infrastructure.

16 Parking: 61B sqft reduction in US; less parking ticket revenue. Real estate: value of properties will shift. Insurance: drop of 90 percent of car accidents that are caused by human. Less traditional insurance. Hotels: need will drop as sleeping in car overnight. Media: increase in media consumption. Package and Food delivery: enormous economic gains. Auto repair: reduction in accidents causes collision repair shops business crash. Similarly new auto parts.

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19 CAR IN THE CLOUD

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23 BACK TO THE FUTURE CAR IN THE CLOUD CAN BE LITERAL. FLYING CARS.

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27 CAR IS PART OF THE INTELLIGENT CLOUD BASED ECOSYSTEM. WHY AUTOMOTIVE INDUSTRY CANNOT DRIVE (THE FUTURE). TRANSPORTATION INDUSTRY HAS TO GET USED TO THE RULES OF THE DIGITAL PLAYERS

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29 INTELLIGENT ASSISTANTS THE NEW PLATFORMS (YES, FORGET ios and ANDROID) Scale: NLP (and speech recognition) reaches billions. And it will arrive in cars. Like now.

30 Go East young man, and grow up with the world. If not East, go West. Forget South. HOW WILL EUROPE (FINLAND) DO?

31 $1B+ PLATFORMS BY REGION NORTH AMERICA ASIA EUROPE AFRICA & LATIN AMERICA North America has more platform firms than anywhere else in the world. China, with a large homogeneous market, is growing fast. Europe, with a more fragmented market, has less than ¼ the value of North America and is not far ahead of developing regions Source: P. Evans, CGE; CB Insights, Capital IQ, CrunchBase, 2015 :: marshall@mit.edu :: PlatformEconomics.com 2015 Parker, Van Alstyne & Choudary

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34 LEARNINGS NEW SERVICE PLAYERS LIKE ALPHABET, BAIDU, UBER CAN END UP CAPTURING THE HIGHEST VALUE IN THE VALUE CHAIN. OEM WILL DRIFT TO HYPERCOMPETITION MULTI-TIER PLATFORMS: THERE WILL BE MANY DIFFERENT LEVELS OF PLATFORMS. AUTO (INFOTAINMENT) OS, ADAS REFERENCE STACK (ALPHABET, MOBILEYE,..), INTELLIGENT UX PLATFORM (ALEXA CORTANA, BAIDU,..), SHARING SERVICE PLATFORM (UBER, DIDI,..). CAN A (CAR) OEM BECOME A DOMINANT PLAYER? ONLY IF IT CREATES AND OWNS A SUCCESSFUL INNOVATION PLATFORM AT SOME LEVEL. MOBILITY AS A SERVICE WILL CHANGE CAR OWNERSHIP, FINANCING, BLUR NOTION OF PUBLIC TRANSPORTATION AND CREATES NEW SERVICES. IMPACTS IN ADJACENT INDUSTRIES AND INFRASTRUCTURE (SMART CITIES, INSURANCE, FIN TECH ) WILL BE LARGER THAN IN WIRELESS ECOSYSTEM.

35 ALL THIS IS DRIVEN BY THE PHILOSOPHY ONLY THE PARANOID SURVIVE. (Andy Grove)

36 THANK YOU.