RACE2050 Or A Past Rich with Future (for the European Transport Industry)

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1 RACE2050 Or A Past Rich with Future (for the European Transport Industry) Dr. Massimo Moraglio, Project coordinator - T.U. Berlin 1 DG Research Brussels 9 Sept. 2014

2 Contents 1. Project outline and philosophy 2. Megatrends and transport demand 3. Industry and innovation 4. Transport policy and research policy 2

3 Project Outline and Approach Project acronym Project title RACE2050 Responsible innovation Agenda for Competitive European transport industries up to 2050 Call identifier FP7-TPT-2012-RTD-1 [Prospects for transport evolution: challenges for the competitiveness of the European transport sector in the long term] Grant Agr. no Starting date 01/09/2012 End date 28/02/2015 Funding Scheme Coordination and support action 3

4 Project Outline and Approach 4

5 Project Outline and Approach Decline and hope as constants of European culture in the past century 5

6 Project Outline and Approach European transport industry: External threats of the past 1. American economies of scale (1960s-1970s) 2. Japanese high-quality, low-cost production (1980s-1990s) 3. Chinese low labour costs (Since 1990s) 6

7 Project Outline and Approach The American threat (1960s-1970s) Challenges The EU Reaction Addressed Europe s lack of economies of scale EU aviation sector heavily benefited from governmental investments See the Concorde and Airbus approach Europe achieved critical mass for the first time which led to economic and political scale effects 7

8 Project Outline and Approach The Japanese threat (1980s-1990s) Challenges The European Reaction Japan had a high-efficient, highquality and cost-saving production In Europe still: an outmoded, inflexible concept of Fordist mass production; mainly domestic business orientation Adapting to lean production Economies of learning and (international) cooperation Boosting EU integration towards the 1992 Single Market Catalysing global integration Precondition for further success in emerging markets today 8

9 Project Outline and Approach The Chinese threat (Since 1990s) Challenges The European Reaction Mixed blessing: - Rising competition in China - Profitting from Chinese demand -> Mixed blessing depending on sector and company Promote cost advantages within Eastern Europe Restore critical mass Eastward enlargement (2004) in the aviation sector to a European Single Sky Harmonization of the rail market Commissions high ecological vehicle and product standards 9

10 Project Outline and Approach Our assertion: Threat scenarios pushed the EU transport industry to successfully adapt and survive 10

11 Megatrends and transport demand Transport trends up to 2050 (NEAA et alii 2009, 70)

12 Megatrends and transport demand Increasing demand does NOT mean success

13 Megatrends and transport demand Climate change Resource scarcity Demographic change Infrastructural constraints and space issues Environmental threat Growing transport demand Rising energy costs Societal threat 13 LABEX Kickoff Workshop - Paris Dec.2013

14 Megatrends and transport demand Some issues seem to be stronger constraints 1.Energy price and accessibility 2.Weaker domestic market + social polarisation (in mature economies) 3.Car culture decline + mobility and social shifts (in mature economies) 14

15 Megatrends and transport demand Possible scenarios? The future European threat is domestic! Polarised mobility (both geographically and socially) political issue industrial issue (lack of scale) competitiveness issue (lack of adequate infrastructure) 15

16 Megatrends and Transport demand Possible scenarios? But in the long run we have potential! Coping with the new-normal, e.g. shared device and ICT highly supported transport system. fixing the urban mobility nightmare (both pass. and freight) keeping domestic market, with export target in mind crossover of tech, business and policy actions 16

17 Megatrends and Transport demand Which methodology behind those RACE2050 scenarios? Definition of 15 parameters concerning competitiveness (elaborated from WEF sets) Environmental issues and policies Energy and raw material prices Geo-political landscape Infrastructure conditions R&D background State of European Integration Financial environment (State of) Business awareness (State of) Technology preparedness Trade conditions Urbanisation and demographic conditions (State of) Globalisation of products and services (State of) ICT development Value chain breadth and international scope Market size 17

18 Megatrends and Transport demand Which methodology behind those RACE2050 scenarios? Definition of 12 industrial sub-sectors for the Transport industry (both service and equipment) Aviation freight services Shipping industry Freight transport on rail Road Freight transport Passengers service by motor-vehicles Passengers service Coach Passengers service Rail Passengers service Aviation Automotive Waterborne and ship industry manufacturing Rail equipment industry Aerospace (manufacturers) 18

19 Megatrends and Transport demand Which methodology behind those RACE2050 scenarios? Definition of the scenarios available for each sector Analysis of the 80+ scenarios against the 15 parameters 19

20 Megatrends and Transport demand Which methodology behind those RACE2050 scenarios? Definition of the scenarios available for each sector Analysis of the 80+ scenarios against the 15 parameters 20

21 Megatrends and Transport demand Which methodology behind those RACE2050 scenarios? Definition of the must crucial aspect for the competitiveness 21

22 Megatrends and Transport demand Which methodology behind those RACE2050 scenarios? Additionally, definition of the Vester diagram for the 12 sub-sectors Vester diagram concerning the Automotive sector 22

23 Industry and innovation How is the European transport industry acting today for tomorrow s markets? It varies according to sub-sector 23

24 Industry and innovation How is the European transport industry acting today for tomorrow s markets? It varies according to sub-sector Further crumbling of border between service and equipment industries 24

25 Industry and innovation How is the European transport industry acting today for tomorrow s markets? It varies according to sub-sector Further crumbling of border between service and equipment industries Two speed markets, e.g. mature and emerging economies (except premium segment) 25

26 Industry and innovation How is the European transport industry acting today for tomorrow s markets? It varies according to sub-sector Further crumbling of border between service and equipment industries Two speed markets, e.g. mature and emerging economies (except premium segment) Coping with (and shaping) societal trends 26

27 Industry and innovation How is the European transport industry acting today for tomorrow s markets? Unfortunately, there is no one winning solution. The successful industry stories have very different reasons. However, EU domestic markets critical mass (also as highly innovative experimental fields) The need for an external threat Export-oriented industrial culture 27

28 Transport policy and research policy Targets and outcomes: a mismatch? 1. Huge inertia of the sector, and against this, 2. current times as a turning point for the industry 28

29 Transport policy and research policy Where are we going? Hi-tech/premium segment way (as in the Waterborne and ship equipment industry) High energy efficient way (not necessarily overlapping with the above) Frugal way (due to higher and higher budget constrains) 29

30 Transport policy and research policy Research paths: which ones better fit future needs? 1.Energy is THE question (even with USA fracking) 2.Be aware of mismatches between tech achievements and everyday life of the industry (as in the shipping sector) 3.Fit the agenda and the tools to the new landscape (e.g. EU transport statistic) 30

31 Transport policy and research policy Research paths: which ones better fit future needs? We are witnessing in Europe a shifting role of mobility in the 21st century that should also shape new policy strategies. Despite the 2011 White Paper declaring that "curbing mobility is not an option, should we challenge the concept "more mobility is better mobility? 31

32 Thank you for your attention! And questions needed! 32

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