ASML Market dynamics. Dave Chavoustie EVP Sales Analyst Day, September 30, 2004

Transcription

1 ASML Market dynamics Dave Chavoustie EVP Sales Analyst Day, September 30, 2004

2 Agenda! Market Overview! Growth Opportunities! 300mm Market! Asia Overview / Slide 2

3 ASML Unit Market Share Trend 60% 12 & ArF ASML Unit Market Share 50% 40% 30% 20% 6 & early I-line 8 & I-line KrF & Step & Scan Immersion 10% 0% Source: ASML / Slide 3

4 Regional Equipment Markets 60% 50% Regional share (%) 40% 30% 20% North America Japan Europe Asia/Pacific 10% 0% Source: Gartner Dataquest, April 04 / Slide 4

5 Importance Targeted Markets 100% 90% 80% Litho share (%) 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% Targeted Markets Others (ex. Targeted Markets) ASML (ex. Targeted Markets) 0% Source: Gartner Dataquest/ASML / Slide 5

6 Importance of Targeted Markets 6,000 5,000 Litho sales (M$) 4,000 3,000 2,000 Targeted Markets Others (ex. Targeted Markets) ASML (ex. Targeted Markets) 1, Source: Gartner Dataquest/ASML / Slide 6

7 ASML Market Share (Excluding Targeted Markets) 80.0% 70.0% 60.0% 50.0% 40.0% 30.0% 20.0% 10.0% ASML revenue share ex. Targeted Markets 0.0% Source: Gartner Dataquest/ASML / Slide 7

8 Market Share Growth ($) p 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% ASML $ market share ex Targeted Markets ASML $ market share World Wide 20% 10% 0% Source: ASML / Slide 8

9 300mm System sales 100% 90% Unit share of market (%) 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% Targeted Markets Others (ex. Targeted Markets) ASML (ex. Targeted Markets) 0% Source: ASML / Slide 9

10 WW 300mm installs per region at known fabs 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% Japan ASIA USA EUR 30% 20% 10% 0% Actual Forecast Source: ASML / Slide 10

11 TWINSCAN XT:1400 EXtending TWINSCAN & ArF towards the 45 nm Node ArF >120 Shipments PAS 5500/900 Q PAS 5500/1100 Q PAS 5500/1150 Q TWINSCAN XT:1400 NEW Q TWINSCAN AT:1100B Q TWINSCAN AT:1200B Q TWINSCAN AT:850 Q TWINSCAN XT:1250D Q TWINSCAN AT:750S Q TWINSCAN AT:750 Q TWINSCAN AT:400 Q TWINSCAN >180 Shipments / Slide 11

12 TWINSCAN TM Value of Innovation Productivity Yield Imaging Overlay Maximum Good Die per Day / Slide 12

13 Value of Productivity at Fab Build Out Fewer Tools Required=More Fab Capacity, Higher Revenue ASML= 18 Competition=28 ArF KrF KrF I-Line ArF KrF KrF I-Line ArF KrF KrF I-Line ArF KrF KrF I-Line ArF KrF KrF I-Line KrF ArF KrF KrF I-Line ArF KrF KrF I-Line ArF KrF KrF I-Line ArF KrF ArF KrF KrF I-Line Reduced Building Footprint >500 m2 Reduced Building + Install Costs > $10M ArF ArF KrF KrF KrF KrF I-Line I-Line Additional Potential Capacity 1,000 wpm Additional Annual Revenue > $30M / Slide 13

14 Value of Overlay Tighter overlay provides higher yield = more good die per wafer!1nm overlay improvement = 1% Yield Improvement!1nm overlay improvement = >$1 million revenue / month! 40k wafers / month x 650 die x 0.01 x $5 Overlay Distribution Spec Limit Overlay Distribution Spec Limit Overlay (nm) Rework & Yield Loss Overlay (nm) Higher Yield & Reduced Rework / Slide 14

15 Value of Imaging Improved imaging provides higher yield = more good die per wafer!1 nm CDU improvement = > 1% Yield Improvement!1 nm CDU improvement = > $3 million revenue / month 30k wafers / month x 600 die x 0.01 x $16.50 CD Distribution CD Distribution Spec Limit Spec Limit Spec Limit Spec Limit CD (nm) Rework & Yield Loss CD (nm) Increased Yield & Reduced Rework / Slide 15

16 Lithography value on die performance yield Critical Dimension Targeting & Uniformity Determine Device Performance. Lithography is the Prime Driver for Critical Dimension Control. IC Speed Distribution Improved CD Control IC Speed Distribution + Speed (MHz) - + Speed (MHz) - More die at higher speed ($) / Slide 16

17 Top 20 CapEx Spenders 1 Samsung 4,453 2 Intel 4,000 3 TSMC 2,375 4 STMicroelectronics 2,200 5 UMC 2,000 6 Infineon 1,685 7 Micron 1,500 8 AMD 1,500 9 SMIC 1, NEC 1, IBM 1, TI 1, Sony 1, Toshiba 1, Chartered 1, Hynix Inotera Elpida Philips Powerchip 800 Top20 CapEx 33,019 Total Worldwide CapEx 44,763 Source: Gartner Dataquest, August 2004 / Slide 17

18 Asia Review Don Crabtree Vice President, ASML Asia Sales Analyst Day, September 30, 2004

19 ASML Asia Review Agenda! A Brief History of ASML in Asia! A Look At the Regions in Asia! The Future / Slide 19

20 A Brief History of ASML Asia / Slide 20

21 First System to Asia Tsinghua University, China (PAS 2000) / Slide 21

22 First New Systems to Countries Winbond, Taiwan PAS 2500 Evaluation AWA, Australia (PAS 2500) Samsung, Korea (PAS 5500) Chartered, Singapore (PAS 5500) ITI, India (PAS 2500) Siltera, Malaysia (PAS 5500) Seiko Epson, Japan (PAS 5500) / Slide 22

23 How ASML Built Its Business in Asia! ASML started by using local companies (agencies) to grow the business in each country:! Successful in Taiwan working with Hermes Epitek! ASML copied that formula elsewhere in the continent! Taiwan/SE Asia - Hermes Epitek: Sales & Service! China - Silicon International: Sales & Service! India - SIMCO: Sales & Service! Japan - Nissei Sangyo (later Hitachi High-Tech): Sales & Service! Korea - Bowoo Corp. (later Hantech): Sales & Service! As the business has changed and grown, the ASML business model has also changed so that now:! Taiwan/SE Asia - ASML Direct! China - ASML Direct! India - SIMCO: Sales & Service! Japan - Hitachi High-Tech: Sales & Contracted Service! Korea - Hantech and Haedong: Sales / Slide 23

24 How ASML Built Its Business in Asia! In 1998 ASML Established an Asia Headquarters Operation in Hong Kong! Began to establish infrastructure to support business operations including:! Sales Management! Service Management! Finance/Control! Contracts! Marketing and Marketing Communications! Established infrastructure in each country for! Sales! Customer Support! Finance! Marketing / Slide 24

25 Why Hong Kong?! ASML is one of the few semiconductor equipment companies to establish headquarters in Hong Kong! Central location! Easy flow of people, money and materials! Tax beneficial environment! Customer Neutral! Entrance visa access to China / Slide 25

26 Asia Business Continues to be a Large Share of ASML Total Business % Q Source: ASML Annual and Quarterly Reports Asia USA Europe / Slide 26

27 ASML Asia Installed Base of Systems Continues to Grow - nearly the same as USA Asia Installed Base:! Korea - 29%! Taiwan - 49%! China - 9%! SE Asia - 11%! Japan - 2% / Slide 27

28 A Look at the Regions / Slide 28

29 ASML in Taiwan, Republic Of China / Slide 29

30 ASML History in Taiwan! ASML s big break came in 1991 when it became the sole supplier of litho tools to TSMC fab 2B! ASML s success with TSMC allowed ASML to grow business with other customers in Taiwan and became recognized as a leader in the foundry market! By late 90 s, ASML s market share was consistently higher (~50%) than that of ASML market share world wide! Through its strength in Taiwan foundries, ASML became a strong presence in foundry fabs outside Taiwan / Slide 30

31 Foundry s Underlined Expectations on Exposure Tools! Time To Market is EVERYTHING -- very aggressive push for response when production is impacted! User-friendly software is needed for flexible manufacturing in a complex product mix! Intensive material handling with small batches and frequent reticle changes! Backward compatibility of new functionality ensures flexibility in production! Superior Value of Ownership in flexible manufacturing operation / Slide 31

32 Taiwan Market Outlook for the Next 5 Years! Taiwan market will remain one of the engines of revenue generation for ASML! Taiwan IC industry has healthy growth plans in both Foundry and Memory sectors! Most of the growth will be in the new 300mm fabs: Foundry is seeing the cost/technology benefit of 300mm Multiple 300mm fabs up and running by Taiwanese companies by 2006 / Slide 32

33 Potential for Growth in Taiwan forward 300mm Fabs: 8 fabs litho cells / Slide 33

34 ASML in Southeast Asia / Slide 34

35 ASML History in S.E. Asia! 1995: ASML established its presence when it was selected as the sole litho supplier to Chartered Fab 2! : ASML enjoyed tremendous growth by becoming sole supplier to 3 new 8 foundries! : Presence in Malaysia and also Australia was established! 2003: ASML won substantial orders from 2 new 300mm fabs! 2004: ASML began business with first non-foundry customer in S.E. Asia! ASML has maintained 50% market share over the years through its strength in the foundry market / Slide 35

36 Potential for Growth in S.E. Asia 2005 forward 200mm Fabs: 6 fabs - 50 litho cells 300mm Fabs: 6 fabs litho cells / Slide 36

37 ASML in Korea / Slide 37

38 Lithography Market in Korea is Unique! Very few high volume users! Leading edge technology! More steady capital investments! Small non-memory market / Slide 38

39 ASML Presence in DRAM Companies in Korea! ASML has largest market share (value) in both companies dominating KrF and ArF systems! Success has been driven by VOO and technology (cost is EVERYTHING in DRAM)! ASML has close cooperation with both companies on new technology programs! Both companies are constantly evaluating all litho suppliers capabilities / Slide 39

40 Potential for Growth in Korea 2005 forward 200mm Fabs: 6 fabs - 40 litho cells 300mm Fabs: 7 fabs litho cells / Slide 40

41 ASML in China / Slide 41

42 ASML China History! Throughout 1990s ASML was able to supply limited numbers to small, non-leading edge customers! Shanghai Belling was first major manufacturer to purchase ASML systems! Climate changed with start-up of SMIC and GSMC projects in Shanghai! New trailing edge projects will be the short-term future in China providing for significant growth! TSMC! UMC! Hynix/ST! Others / Slide 42

43 SMIC Changed the Market! Currently operating:! Fab 1-3 in Shanghai! Fab 7 recently acquired! Fab 4 300mm! Aggressive plans for future! ASML strong at all wavelengths / Slide 43

44 Potential for Growth in China 2005 forward 200mm (and below) Fabs: 20 fabs litho cells 300mm Fabs: 2 fabs - 48 litho cells / Slide 44

45 And the Final Frontier JAPAN / Slide 45

46 History of ASML in Japan! ASML together with Hitachi High-Tech have been actively marketing ASML products in Japan since 1991! First real break-through came with Seiko-Epson taking ASML for new manufacturing line in 2001! Decision to change due to VOO concepts and rapid delivery of product! Since then ASML has built upon this initial success and developed three new customers in Japan shipping:! 200mm! 300mm! KrF! ArF! I-Line! CCD systems / Slide 46

47 A New Strategy! The typical sales cycle for lithography systems in Japan is at least two years to accomplish! Consensus building throughout organization! Multiple demonstrations of ASML system capabilities! Heavy data analysis! On-site, and often head-to-head evaluations! The strategy of ASML/HHT was to win business one customer at a time and build upon this success! However, due to the sales cycle time this strategy is slow in developing! ASML recently decided to take a more aggressive sales approach in Japan by:! Significantly increasing sales and marketing staff! Cover all new accounts aggressively in parallel! Addition of support resources proactively / Slide 47

48 Office Locations = Office now (6) = Office committed (3) / Slide 48

49 New Strategy Represents a Significant Investment to Grow ASML in Japan! Investment will be in personnel growth both with ASML and HHT! New capabilities will be developed in Japan! Marketing! Technical Expertise! Infrastructure! Management! Investments will continue with local Japan suppliers! Investments will continue with evaluation systems needed to win new business / Slide 49

50 The Future / Slide 50

51 ASML Positioned For Growth in Asia! Over the last 15 years ASML has grown in market share and regional capabilities to become the leading litho supplier in Asia! Each region has room for continued growth in market! Sustaining market share in Korea! Growing new customers in Taiwan and SE Asia! Major growth will be in China and Japan! ASML will continue to add necessary management and infrastructure in Asia to support the continued growth of the semiconductor industry! ASML is willing to make the right major investments to support the growth of this business / Slide 51

52 Commitment