Unlocking Unexploited Opportunities in the Chinese Foundry
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1 Research Brief Unlocking Unexploited Opportunities in the Chinese Foundry Abstract: China must overcome self-inflicted and politically instigated impediments to competitively strengthen its foundry s core value proposition, if it is to leverage the emerging opportunities. By Kay-Yang Tan Recommendations Establishing relationships with key government and business contacts is paramount for foreign invested fabs to further flourish in China. The Chinese foundry players must know their targeted market opportunities well. Companies must proactively form partnerships to collaborate with potential local organizations that have healthy financial background records. Existing foundry players that do not intend to build a fab in China should consider forming strategic alliances with key Chinese foundries to benefit from lower cost structures and booming local market opportunities. Publication Date: 25 June 2003
2 2 Unlocking Unexploited Opportunities in the Chinese Foundry Capitalizing on the Era of Outsourcing China's foundry fever has intensified in the recent years. Spurred by the potential lucrative returns, a number of new Chinese wafer fabrication plants have sprouted up assertively, despite the global semiconductor slowdown since Recent progressive developments inside the country have reshaped the lens through which the world once viewed the primitive domestic Chinese competitors. For the past decade, China has been a well-established bastion for the electronic equipment production. Its strong market dominance and attractive low-cost manufacturing have positioned the country as a conduit to many rewarding investments within the downstream supply chain. Many of the world s premier semiconductor manufacturers have significantly marked a presence in China, betting on its latent business prospects and potent opportunistic growth. China is still in the nascent phase of building up its foundry business model. Although the country has recently rushed ahead with spate of 8- inch fab construction plans and aggressive road map announcements, only a few entrants appeared to have made headway at the moment. Gartner Dataquest estimates that the local foundry production revenue reached just $352 million in 2002, accounting for merely 4.3 percent percent of the total market share in Asia/Pacific (for detailed revenue breakdown analysis, refer to SCSI-AP-MS-0135). Only two 8-inch foundry operators ramping up in volume production, namely Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corp. (SMIC) and Hua Hong NEC. However, emerging soon from the construction pipeline include: Grace Semiconductor Manufacturing Corp. (GSMC) Shanghai Belling Advanced Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. (ASMC) Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co.'s (TSMC's) latest venture. Although China's present achievements have yet to make it a formidable technological superpower, its potential high-tech prowess should not be underrated. There are indisputable convictions that in the next five years, China will become a fervent manufacturing powerhouse in Asia/Pacific, transforming the regional economy with its dynamic clout of technology revolution. An obvious attraction is its sheer domestic market size. In 2002, the country semiconductor consumption hit $23.2 billion, representing as much as 40 percent of the Asia/Pacific shipment market. Gartner Dataquest forecasts that China consumption market will continue to grow at a robust CAGR of 17.4 percent for the next five years, reaching $51.7 billion by However, before the country could become a stabilizing force in unfolding creative innovations and empowering influential growth in the high-end manufacturing arena, there remain a few steep technology impediments that need to be totally surmounted Gartner, Inc. and/or its Affiliates. All Rights Reserved. 25 June 2003
3 3 China's high-tech trajectory is still hobbled by the Wassenaar Arrangement, which dictates that U.S.- based equipment companies are restricted from shipping advanced 0.18-micron lithography tools and photomasks into the country. Although such restrictions can be circumnavigated by turning to alternative European and Japanese suppliers, the limited access to a wider option of advanced equipment could still seriously impede the local foundries technological competitiveness. This issue is further compounded with another similar political barrier in that the Taiwanese government will only allow its more-mature technologies to be transferred across the strait, albeit lifting its semiconductor investment ban recently in China. Under restricted guidelines, Taiwanese premier chip makers that possess 12-inch fabrication facilities are eligible to construct only 8-inch wafer fabs (that are a generation or two behind) in China. Hence, unless all these governmental limitations are fully overcome, foundries in China will continue to boost little paradigm-bending technological innovations as compared with the rest of the global players. Yet another thorny issue that China must face with top priority is to increase its ability to safeguard designs and proprietary technology more efficiently. Despite its entry into World Trade Organization (WTO), China has done little to enforce the intellectual property protection. The country has yet to curb the widespread piracy, which is essential for current and future foreign investments to further flourish. Although the Chinese foundries have signed a code of conduct not to copy or pirate other companies designs, bootlegged replications are still easily available throughout the country. As a result, many skeptical foreign fabless and design houses are still reluctant to utilize the local foundries unless a more proactive legislative system is instilled to protect the proprietary design schemes at a greater confidence level. 8-Inch Activities Heating Up China's foundry industry can be segmented into two distinct categories, namely, the established domestic and the newly emerging foreigninvested ventures. Domestic players include a bevy of trailing-edge fabs that are either partly state-owned or wholly government-initiated. These chip makers are likely to continue with quarter micron or larger process technologies to produce lower-value-added chips to satisfy the strong local demand market. Unlike the domestic fabs, foreign invested fab ventures are targeted at the more sophisticated process manufacturing technology. Adopters of this service cluster are likely foreign design companies with houses set up locally to bypass the 17 percent tariffs related on products destined for the country end markets. The following provides a brief overview of the more prominent 8-inch activities in China Gartner, Inc. and/or its Affiliates. All Rights Reserved. 25 June 2003
4 4 Unlocking Unexploited Opportunities in the Chinese Foundry SMIC, a privately held startup funded mostly out of Taiwan and the United States, is progressing well as the stalwart of China s high tech manufacturing industry. The company has established several technological alliances with many industry veterans such as Infineon, Elpida, Chartered, Toshiba, Fujitsu and IMEC since its operation in Besides its three active fabs in Shanghai Pudong, SMIC is now aggressively building up a 12-inch pilot line in Beijing Economic- Technological area. GSMC is also another independently funded new fab that broke ground only at the end of Backed by the sons of China's ex-president, Jiang Zemin and the chairman of the Formosa Group Wang Yuan-ching, the company with technology licensed from Oki, has however delayed its original production schedule for more than a year due to the current global slowdown. One of China's greatest attractions is that the foundry manufacturing process fit well with the government's hunger to obtain leading-edge technology. Hua Hong NEC was spawned from the Chinese government's early effort to initiate a state-of-the art wafer fab for Project 909, a sponsored program to develop the domestic chip industry. The company wasoriginatedasacaptivedramproducerfornecbuthascompletely shifted its strategy to the foundry business since Likewise, ASMC and Shanghai Belling, which are expanding their trailing-edge facilities with newer 8-inch capacities, are also partly state-owned enterprises, in which the government is a significant shareholder. These extended plants are not built to compete in the high-end arena. In fact, these companies will be equipping their plants mostly with refurbished used equipment that has been fully or partially depreciated to reduce cost. Focus will be more on the niche Bipolar and Bipolar Complementary Metal Oxide Semiconductor (BiCMOS) technologies that specifically support the burgeoning domestic demand. Taiwan had previously banned its high-tech industry from proceeding into China in fear of weakening its leading position in the semiconductor industry. With the long-standing restriction finally eased under certain guidelines and conditions, TSMC had officially announced to construct its first 8-inch wafer fab in the Songjiang industrial park by Nevertheless, we believe that the company's strategic move into the mainland will be rather conservative unless China's endeavor in its foundry business can provide significant underpinning domestic growth in the near term. Gartner Dataquest Perspective Under China's wider manufacturing growth shadow, the Chinese foundries are moving fast to achieve a competitive technology base rivaling several of the second-tier global players. A notable standout is SMIC, which has not only produced chips with 0.18-micron design rules, but has also carried out early research spadework on 0.13-micron technology. However by any standards of measurement, the country's technology competency still doesn't measure up to the top-tier premier 2003 Gartner, Inc. and/or its Affiliates. All Rights Reserved. 25 June 2003
5 5 foundries that have already moved into the 90-nanometer geometry. Although technology leaders at the highend often tend to reap the fattest returns, followers can nonetheless be successful as well. Manufacturing prowess is no doubt beneficial; however, this is not critical in attributing the Chinese foundry's success in the initial stage. Instead the Chinese foundry players should focus very well on their targeted market opportunities. As competition intensified, chip making proficiency is no longer the sole key differentiator determining a company's success; instead the cost of production has become more significant. Cost per die has ultimately become the underlining key to attract clients and build up market shares. Although newly established Chinese manufacturers are mainly followers in technology, these players can nevertheless still thrive well in their identified opportunistic markets. There is a typical entry strategy practiced among the new Chinese players to get a quick foothold share of the market. By staying behind the bleeding-technology edge, the Chinese foundries have identified a "sweet spot" to maintain competitiveness. New entrants would usually either depend on equipment makers to provide the already known process technology solutions or form technological alliances with established IDM veterans to shorten the required learning curve. DRAM is usually the core commodity ramping up the initial production lines. Being unproven and therefore more risk-averse, the key approach for these chip makers is usually focused in offering competitively aggressive value pricing to gain better positioning and market acceptance. China's foundry production clearly represents only a small fraction of what is been consumed locally. In 2002, the foundry industry contributed only 4.3 percent of the domestic consumption market. Gartner Dataquest estimates that this ratio will increase significantly, as the country gradually revamps its traditional low-cost manufacturing and importoriented model to a higher-value-added and consumption-based structure. The undersupplied domestic market critically reflects huge potential growth in the locally based fabless industry indirectly. Still in the infancy stage of development, many of these companies, whose revenue is capped at a couple of hundred million dollars at most, are concentrating only in printed circuit board and low-level embryonic system designs. However, some of these design firms will eventually poise to become significant future contenders in the advanced chip design arena. Therefore, part of the Chinese foundry model's success will stem considerably from how strategic partnerships can be carefully developed along the way with these vital players. Key Issue How fast will semiconductor contract manufacturing services grow in Asia/Pacific? 2003 Gartner, Inc. and/or its Affiliates. All Rights Reserved. 25 June 2003
6 6 Unlocking Unexploited Opportunities in the Chinese Foundry This document has been published to the following Marketplace codes: SEMC-WW-DP-0291 For More Information... In North America and Latin America: In Europe, the Middle East and Africa: In Asia/Pacific: In Japan: Worldwide via gartner.com: Entire contents 2003 Gartner, Inc. and/or its Affiliates. All rights reserved. Reproduction of this publication in any form without prior written permission is forbidden. The information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable. Gartner disclaims all warranties as to the accuracy, completeness or adequacy of such information. Gartner shall have no liability for errors, omissions or inadequacies in the information contained herein or for interpretations thereof. The reader assumes sole responsibility for the selection of these materials to achieve its intended results. The opinions expressed herein are subject to change without notice
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