A new role for Research and Development within the Swedish Total Defence System

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1 Summary of the final report submitted by the Commission on Defence Research and Development A new role for Research and Development within the Swedish Total Defence System Sweden s security and defence policy has throughout the 1990s been gradually changing. The focusing on self-sufficiency and strong defence against invasion as a basis for this policy, prevailing during the postwar period, has successively been replaced by changed and new demands on the Total Defence System. In the reorientation, particular attention is paid to demands on flexibility and adaptability to meet an enlarged spectrum of threats, risks and tasks. Greater importance has been attached to the capability of contributing towards international efforts. The orientation of the Total Defence Reform, firstly to adapt the Total Defence System to new tasks, secondly to maintain the capability of progressively developing and renewing the necessary resources in order to solve these tasks, assumes that the Swedish security and defence policy more often opens up opportunities for deepening international co-operation. The ever-quickening technical development, on the whole reduced resources and a widened task spectrum for the military as well as the civil defence, which is known as the Total Defence System, makes this necessary. An enlarged security concept, internationalisation, adaptability and more extensively focusing on the utilisation of civil technology and civil resources thus constitute some of the basic elements of the governmental reorientation of this System. The transition from defence against invasion into rapid-reaction defence presupposes adaptability, which in turn builds on futureoriented Research and Development (R&D) efforts being made for the purpose of facilitating future changes if need be. Here it is firstly about early understanding the need for changes to meet new situations and secondly being prepared to actually and rapidly enough procure the necessary resources and being able to take measures to anticipate alternative developments of events. Without target-oriented and powerful concentration on R&D this is not possible to achieve in the Commission s opinion. In a situation with a substantial uncertainty as to what future one has to deal with, the task of the R&D activity is firstly to create the most 1(10)

2 complete possible picture of conceivable future developments, secondly to contribute towards developing the different means that is needed in order to manage alternative developments of events. It is merely efforts of the R&D character that can give us this, and therefore the R&D activity is one of the most essential within the future Total Defence System. Previously, the threat pattern and needs have been the predominant driving forces for the developments of the Total Defence System, whereas the R&D has had a more supporting role. The Total Defence reform signifies that the R&D must take on a more explicitly driving function. The technical know-how generated by the R&D activity shall to a great extent serve as guidance to further developments of the Total Defence System. An R&D accurately designed, accordingly becomes the decisive prerequisite of a successful reform. To implement the demand for remodelling of the Total Defence System according to the Government s intentions, it is important to rapidly launch R&D efforts that target and delineate feasibilities of renewal. So the scope for sufficient funds must, within the framework of available resources for research, technology and materiel supply, be ensured for such an R&D, promoting freedom of action and adaptability, and creating several lines of action for future decision situations. Cutting-edge expertise within certain areas creates the basis of collaboration schemes with countries, which is instrumental in enhancing reliability in know-how, technology and materiel supply. To sum up, the Commission hold the opinion that the future R&D activity should be oriented to support the Total Defence System as follows: Draw on the unique possibilities that R&D efforts hold out in order to obtain and describe future feasible development options, and to find various means necessary to anticipate different developments of events and be instrumental in carrying such means into effect. Follow, understand and explain crucial trends in the developments in relation to security policy, technology and Society, and delineate in an active manner and make the consequences for the future design of the Total Defence System evident. Target, evaluate and make contributions towards realising new optional lines of action, by means of which the demand for enhanced adaptability, etc., can be made tangible. Seek cooperative opportunities in the form of national and international effort for the purpose of supporting the Total Defence System with technical know-how, originating from other countries and Sweden as well. 2(10)

3 Support preparation for and participation in international operations within the Total Defence System. Be a contributor to ensure the Total Defence System s remodelling in the next few years. Draw up the line of activities as regards materiel acquisition and foster the in-service support of existing systems. These thrusts are valid in the main also today, but the Commission judge that there must be a new focus to conform to the intentions of the Total Defence Reform. The Commission s considerations and proposals Research and technology developments constitute a significant aid to find new solutions and contribute towards the further development of the Total Defence System. By means of close links to studies, simulations as well as demonstrations and trials, the R&D activity results may be efficiently utilised for different purposes and users. The Total Defence R&D thereby extensively contributes in the form of supporting the management of the System s further development, crisis management capability, international efforts, materiel supply, the authorities supply of competence, the development of military units and tactics as well as measures taken to protect Society s infrastructure. The Commission have not broached the issue on international collaboration. Our judgement is that such collaboration calls for special attention by the Government, predominantly in terms of R&D for the technology and materiel supply. The reason for this is that other R&D is, to a substantial extent, already internationalised, according to long-standing tradition within the world of research scientists. Normally, no pronounced governmental actions are called for to promote international collaboration in terms of e.g. research in the areas of international crisis management, Society s vulnerability, etc. The state of things, however, is different as far as materiel-oriented R&D is concerned. Different countries have in this case reasons for being restrictive. It is all about secrecy and a wish to protect the development results, etc. that shall prospectively be further processed into materiel to be introduced into the international market. These circumstances lead additionally on to the Government s judgement and control of international collaboration, preferably being based on both technical and materiel supply aspects and issues on harmonisation of operational requirements and crisis management capability. In the judgement of the Commission, this has also been the case to date. The Commission have not had the ambition to cover the Total Defence R&D activity in the whole of its extent. In the light of the 3(10)

4 available time, the benchmark for the performance of work has been set on the basis of a changed perspective, and has accordingly been limited to such an R&D that is of the greatest importance in relation to the changes contained in the new governmental orientation of the Total Defence System. Furthermore, areas that we consider demand the Government s attention to a particularly high degree, have been focused on. The following issues have been felt to be crucial to deal with: The need of delineating, on the part of the Government and the authority placers of orders, the strategic orientation of the R&D activity and improving the processes for the utilisation of the R&D activity results. National and international collaboration. Further development of working methods and networks for R&D co-operation, both within the Total Defence System and between military and civil R&D, within Sweden and with other countries. Collaboration between the military and civil defence in terms of joint R&D areas. R&D activity supporting adaptability. This predominantly comprises the military defence R&D activity and demonstrators for the purpose of indicating future optional lines of action. The demand for links to an adequately built out analysis and study activity is emphasised, as well as the demand for drawing on the prospects that utilisation of modelling and simulation offer. Research supporting the management of the Total Defence System development, and delineation of the enlarged security concept. R&D supporting the participation in international operations. The Government s control of the R&D activity as well as the distribution and earmarking of resources for it. R&D strategy at governmental level. Below the Commission s considerations and proposals within these fields are succinctly commented on. Processes and working methods for control, orientation and utilisation of R&D The system for assignment-geared procedures, introduced in 1994/95 and applied to the Total Defence R&D activity, have worked out well. The Commission have, however, after their mapping out and analysing the problems found out that improvements must be made, predominantly in two respects. 4(10)

5 Firstly, authority placers of orders (including the Swedish Government Offices) should, in a more clear-cut manner than to date state their demand for knowledge and expertise build-up in a long-term perspective, and in dialogue with the major R&D producers document this. Such documents of intent and strategy shall form the basis for orders of research and development activity, thus creating predictability for mainly the major producers. This additionally facilitates recruitment and supply of competence. Secondly, the results from the R&D activity must more extensively be transferred and be of use through further development of relevant and already established working methods and processes. A crucial instrument for this is an enhanced study and analysis activity. Technically oriented R&D in the early phases of the materiel process The technically oriented R&D activity constitutes a crucial part of the early phases of the materiel process. It spans the whole period from early research efforts in order to target new opportunities and their value, over demonstrations of new technical solutions to acquisition of fully developed systems and in-service support of systems in operational use. To decide on measures that promote future adaptability, the Government and the authority placers of orders need access to adequate decision-making data. It is all about building up, by means of R&D efforts, understanding of the developmental consequences in relation to defence and security policy as well as technology in the world around. Amongst other things, there is a need for knowledge and expertise in support of preparing an adjustment of the Total Defence System to the current threat patterns and risks. Data for such decision-taking is mainly gained by concentrating on research, general technology developments without ties to objects, as well as demonstrators, focusing on build-up of know-how about future threats, risks and opportunities. As a comprehensive term for research and technology developments in early phases of the non-object-oriented R&D activity within the military defence, henceforth the designation R&T will be used. The demonstrator activity in the early phases of the R&D process is, in the Commission s opinion, an imperative complement to the R&T activity that we have had up till now in the military defence, and is of crucial importance to ensure the future adaptability of the military defence. Early efforts in the form of research, technology developments and different kinds of technology and field demonstrators contribute 5(10)

6 towards resolving uncertainties, testing feasibility and pointing out a large number of conceivable approaches. Furthermore, the demonstrator activity contributes to a great extent towards R&T results being transferred and utilised for intended purposes. Accordingly, the future adaptability is also promoted. Resources for initiating and performing a demonstrator programme with this purpose must be made available by rerouting of funds within the current budgetary limits for the military defence materiel supply. In order to ensure that the results of the enhanced R&D efforts in the early phases of the decision-making process are thus transferred and can be drawn on for the intended purposes, it is called upon the R&D activity closely interacting with an enlarged study activity within the Total Defence System. This study activity shall comprise participation by all the authorities concerned. If need be and whenever suitable, external expertise from universities, colleges of higher learning and industry may additionally be utilised. An important starting point is that the activity can be performed on a long-term basis, and partly separated from the daily operational activity of the authorities, at the same time as it shall be carried on closely to the Total Defence activity it is to support. The above constitutes a very brief summary of the Commission s considerations and proposals for aim and direction and financing of the technically oriented R&D activity in the early phases of the materiel process. Research activity as support for management of the Total Defence developments Through the Total Defence reform and the associated Total Defence System s reorientation, the demands for flexibility and adaptability to encounter an enlarged spectrum of threats, risks and tasks take a prominent position. The widened security concept provides new prerequisites of the security policy, and implies that the threat patterns turn more diffuse and is, to a greater extent, widened into non-military threats. Furthermore, the technical developments, both civil and military, place higher demands on expertise to follow, understand and to draw on the new opportunities, the capability to encounter new threats imperatively being further developed. Within the framework of a widened security concept, new requirements are set on co-ordination and collaboration between the civil and military defence. Time may have come for mustering of strength, meaning a thoroughly new manner of co-ordinating the Total Defence resources. 6(10)

7 The implication of this is new and enhanced requirements on a global view and a capability of overall management of the developments of the Total Defence System, and on that of taking strategic decisions on adjustment measures and international operations. The qualities of leadership must be designed to control, by means of sufficient lead time, and to signal such changes in the world around that call for special efforts or measures to be taken. To foster such a capability there are needs for research activity and special research efforts, both at the authority and governmental level. Strategic studies, strategic analysis and planning, monitoring of the world around, e.g. through intelligence, are part of the current pattern of demands. There is a demand for research with bearing upon the developments of the world around, both in relation to security policy and to Society and technical developments, as well as research touching upon the issues on strategic decision-making capability. Furthermore, there is a demand for an analysing and evaluation capability at the highest system level, amongst other things for the purpose of targeting and evaluating optional lines of action in the future. Additionally, this need comprises research and study activity as well as scenario generation on the character of future conflicts and the management of them. These research fields are exceedingly dual for the civil and military defence, and the Government, the Armed Forces and the Agency for Civil Emergency Planning are all assigners. In the Commission s opinion, information assurance documents of intent on research efforts within areas such as international operations, protection of the infrastructure crucial to Society, information operations, ITsecurity and NBC issues should be jointly drawn up for the military and civil defence. Such documents should also state how roles and the running co-operation between the participants concerned should be designed. The Government s control of and priority considerations on R&D The Government s control of the R&D activity must predominantly focus on the monitoring of how the authorities translate into action the transformation plans that the Government have expressed by means of the Total Defence Reform. The follow-up should be based upon an account on the part of the authorities, which in turn constitutes the basic facts for a dialogue with the Government. The progressive account that the Government annually petition the authorities should, apart from the purely economic follow-ups of different R&D allocation entries, also comprise, to a greater extent than 7(10)

8 today, accounts of how the allocated funds are distributed as support of different purposes or capabilities. The capabilities referred to in this context are Qualities of leadership in relation to the management of the Total Defence developments, Adaptability and Operational capability. The R&D resources invested in different types of demonstrators should be of paramount importance and be a specific part of the accounts. Moreover, the authorities should annually submit to the Government a progress report on the internationalisation of the R&D activity. As regards the issue on the budgetary limits of the Total Defence R&D activity, the Commission are of the opinion that this should also continuously be at a high level of ambition. The justification of this is accounted for in the Commission s final report, where the crucial importance of the R&D activity to the translation into action of the Total Defence reform has been emphasised. The Commission have furthermore drawn the conclusion that the technically oriented R&D activity in the early phases of the materiel process, through rerouting of funds within the total budget for materiel supply for the military defence, needs a capital injection for the purpose of enhancing and broadening the Armed Forces freedom and future opportunities to act. In other respects, the Commission think that the submitted proposals for control and evaluation improvements should be accomplished prior to more far-reaching reconsiderations of priorities related to R&D resources. R&D strategy at a governmental level As previously mentioned, it is the Commission s stand that the Total Defence R&D activity ought to be controlled and further developed by means of documents of intent and strategy documents at different levels. These documents are complementary to the regular steering documents, such as the governmental Appropriation Directions, etc., and should be designed to provide a long-term basis for the orientation of the R&D activity at the executing authorities, but also guidance to the parts of industry concerned and universities and colleges of higher learning. Accordingly, the governmental level R&D strategy should, apart from guidance in terms of the R&D, directly ordered by the Government, also create a framework for the strategies intended to cover the demands of the authority placers of orders. The Commission have laid down a tentative plan for the Government s R&D strategy. This plan and the Commission s final report are based on the resolutions passed by the Swedish Parliament, the Riksdag, on the orientation of research and development on account of the government bill, The New Defence. The plan is further building 8(10)

9 on the judgements of the Government s bill and on the experiences progressively gained during the Commission s work and on the tangible proposals delivered in their final report. The strategy should, except the parts to be found in the Commission s proposals, contain directives of how roles and tasks for the different players are to be designed. The continuing work on the R&D strategy ought to be conducted by the Ministry of Defence in co-operation with the authorities concerned, the prerequisites of which are that the Ministry has access to sufficient expertise to be a fully valued partner in a dialogue. Before the strategy is established, it should be the subject of an extended circulation for comment, where, apart from the different authorities of the Total Defence System, universities and colleges of higher learning and industry will be given the opportunity of manifesting themselves. Measures to be preferably taken by the Government The Commission wish to lay the main stress on the importance of the Government actively participating in the endeavours to direct and evaluate the Total Defence R&D activity. In this regard, the Government ought to take the following tangible measures: 1. Decide on the R&D strategy at the governmental level after circulation for comment and thorough preparatory processing. 2. Reroute funds in the region of SEK 500 million per year to strengthen R&T. The means are mainly to be utilised for the building up of a demonstrator programme in the early phases of the R&D activity. Out of these means, approx. SEK 400 million are earmarked for the raising of the level of ambition, and approx. SEK 100 million for the demonstrator activity of the character referred to in this context, which already today is being carried out, but financed within the materiel allocations framework. The approx. sum of 100 million per year should be transferred as soon as possible. The approx. sum of 400 million per year, earmarked for the raising of the level of ambition, should be progressively and annually transferred during a 3-year period of time, commencing in 2002, which implies that the raising of the level strived for will be attained in full as from year Assign the authorities concerned as regards the organisation and contents of the Total Defence study activity and decide on ways and means to finance this. 4. Assign the authorities concerned to submit proposals for a joint infrastructure, taking advantage of the potential that the 9(10)

10 drawing on modelling and simulation holds out. For this purpose, the Government should, in the Commission s opinion, divert resources, initially SEK 50 million per year during a 5- year period. 5. Assign the Armed Forces and the Agency for Civil Emergency Planning to work out a joint direction and R&D forms to collaborate (strategy documents) within the following areas: - International operations - Protection of the infrastructure crucial to Society - Information operations - NBC issues. 6. Carry out reviews of the prospects of initiating R&D programmes at a national level within spheres that are beneficial to the Total Defence System and take advantage of the synergistic effects which such joint programmes can offer. 7. Ask, in connection to the authorities 2002 annual report, for a general account of firstly the R&D-activity efforts and results in capability terms, secondly how the internationalisation progresses and a special account of the work on and result of the demonstrator activity in the early phases of the R&Dactivity. 8. Ascertain that there will be a dialogue on the Total Defence R&D activity, also at the highest level between the Government and the ministries and authorities concerned by forming an R&D-board chaired by the Minister of Defence. Ensure that there will also be sufficient resources and expertise at the Ministry of Defence to support the R&D-board and to create a forum for constructive dialogues. 10(10)

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