Scenario-planning and its use

Transcription

1 Foresight Center, Estonia. June 14, 2017 Scenario-planning and its use Ulf Mannervik Associate Fellow at University of Oxford, Founder of NormannPartners

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3 3 topics When is scenario-planning advisable? What is scenario-planning? Uses of scenario-planning

4 Tomorrow another yesterday? Wellbeing of a turkey Thanksgiving Days Source: Taleb/Russel

5 80 strategies that failed: why? Misleading prejudgments = 82% Misleading experiences = 64% Inappropriate self-interest, including wanting to be popular = 69% Inappropriate attachments = 43% SOURCE: Think again: Why good leaders make bad decisions and how to keep it happening to you (Finkelstein, Whitehead, Campbell; 2008) 5

6 Conventional forecasting OPTIMISTIC ALTERNATIVE FORECAST PESIMISTIC ALTERNATIVE Future is another past, tomorrow No breaks in logics allowed

7 Difficult to forecast Leave probability aside The crisis has thrown into doubt the whole standard approach to shortterm forecasting. LEX FT Published: 12 / 9/ :40

8 TURBULENCE NOVELTY UNCERTAINTY AMBIGUITY T U N A environments

9 Different ways of dealing with the future Prediction: stating what will be Forecasting: extrapolating and modeling Scenarios: simulating different futures - anticipatory - (sometimes) normative

10 Main actor Stakeholder environment Larger context Scenarios: stories about your future larger context Global, regional and national - Social values and demographics - Economic development - Technology development - Natural environment and climate - International regulations Survey & appreciate Challenges for actors involved in your immediate environment Influence & co-design YOU Control

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14 Futures of large urban regions in 2030 Implications for social welfare models High economic development GREEN RABBITS Shared sense of social unity, shared responsibility and trust in governments SHARKS AND MINNOWS Social unrest, low social cohesion and low trust in governments GREEN TURTLES Low economic development STRUGGLING JACKALS

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16 Some fields for scenario-planning

17 Future of transport? Multimodal and connected, lesser waste CLIMATE CHANGE SHARING ECONOMY ELECTRIFIED AUTONOMOUS CONNECTED What geo-economical structures of trade? Climate impacts and emissions legislations? National, regional or global standards? Who will take lead by enabling legislation? What actors will collaborate to win?

18 Future of tax? Adapting to and supporting change? NETWORKED WORLD URBANISATION SHARING ECONOMY DEMOGRAPHIC CHANGE CLIMATE CHANGE Fair: international and intergenerational? Enabling a fragmented workforce and more sustainable behaviour? Social welfare funding and provision aligned? Promoting private goods, minimising public bads?

19 Future of work? Several unknowns, big economic impact Changes expected in the UK: 20% of jobs gone by % of jobs performed by next generation do not exist yet. Professor Arturo Bris, IMD How might it affect different jobs? How attract investments? What tax implications, incl. what to tax? What education and training? Social insurance design? How enable meaning and quality of life?

20 Future of energy? Renewables: Not if, but when and how For the second year in a row, renewable energy accounted for more than half the new power generation capacity added worldwide. Sales of plug-in electric vehicles last year were 42 per cent higher than in 2015, growing eight times faster than the overall market. May 18, 2017 FT.COM Dieter Helm, 2017 Professor of energy policy, University of Oxford When and how might the game change? How provide future energy security? How fund transition to sustainable energy?

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23 Scenarios and risk assessment Policy as today Alternative A Alternative B Alternative C

24 (some) scenario-planning uses Linear, cyclical, parallel, processes Sense making Norming Identify priorities Risk mapping Strategic decision making Strategy/project forming Investment war-gaming Technology roadmaps Capability planning Stakeholder engagement Form collaborations Influence decisions Thought leadership Continuous sense-making Scouting framework Early warnings Inform strategy network Strategy delivery testing Source: Mannervik 24

25 Informing decisions TODAY Understand if what one plans to do, is viable in the light of what MAY happen

26 Scenario-planning effectiveness Some advice, from +20 years in the field Clarity of purpose Involve users, early on Bring policy assumptions to surface All in the process = scenario learners Plausibility is key, leave out probability Focus on big picture, don t get too technical Think of scenarios as processes, not products Don t confuse scenarios with options and intents SOURCE: Mannervik

27 Concluding Essence of scenario-planning Proactive awareness Accepting multiple views Prepared alternatives

28 Ulf Mannervik Engelbrektsgatan 9-11 SE Stockholm Sweden Tel: +46 (0) St. James s Square London, SW1Y 415 United Kingdom Tel: +44 (0)