NEW TECHNOLOGIES. Philippe Francken. WSRF 2012, Dubai 1
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1 NEW TECHNOLOGIES Philippe Francken 1
2 Introduction Insertion of new technologies in space systems is not a goal in itself, but needs to be viewed within the broader context of innovation the ultimate objective of which is value creation. Successful management of innovation is a key risk management challenge. High-profile failures have durably reduced the industry s risk appetite. However, failing to innovate can also be a major risk! Questions we propose to address: WHY do we need to innovate? WHAT type of innovation is relevant? HOW to make innovation successful and properly manage the risks? 2
3 WHY we need to innovate Customer needs are changing: Exponential growth of internet consumption and connected devices, emergence of new services. Evolution of video-based services. Terrestrial telecommunication infrastructures are evolving at a much faster pace than space infrastructures: R&D budgets are orders of magnitude those of the space industry. Exponential performance increase and cost reduction of terrestrial technologies will continue, while satellite might at most evolve with linear performance increase. Wireless evolution will follow the same trend, but will face a capacity bottleneck: Hybrid satellite-terrestrial systems are a solution. Opportunity for satellites to be used for distribution of linear video content and/or for backhauling. Space industry needs to evolve and adapt in order to remain competitive. Strategic needs in terms of innovation include: The reduction of the total cost of ownership of space based solutions. Improving flexibility of satellite payloads to face market uncertainties over a 15+ year mission life. Addressing new markets and the convergence between the video and data at a system level. 3
4 WHAT type of innovation is relevant Proposed innovation concepts must address identified strategic needs. Innovation must be viewed from a system standpoint, considering simultaneously: The launch vehicle, The satellite bus and payload, The ground network, User equipment aspects. Innovation shall allow either: A qualitative step allowing new features / capabilities not permitted by traditional technologies. A large quantitative step at system level e.g. improvement of at least 25% in a key parameter (cost, throughput, lifetime, ). Innovation shall be more than normal product line evolutions: Most product line evolutions address marginal improvements of performance parameters. Product line evolutions tend to concern aspects of little direct relevance to the customer, like improvement of product line commonalities or management of obsolescence issues. Relevant initiatives shall be looked from a long-term perspective, not as a short term response to a need. With limited R&D budgets, innovation needs to focus on the right objectives! 4
5 Examples of relevant innovation Flexible payloads: Flexible payload technologies at antenna and repeater levels, for instance DTPs (channelizers), on-board IP routers, phased array antennas. The extra cost and performance impacts of those technologies require a detailed study of end benefits at system level in order to judge the worthiness of such investments. Addressing new markets and the video / data convergence: Development of system-level solutions for efficient spectrum utilization and interference protection through smart antenna technologies (Cognitive Radio, MIMO ). Development of system-level solutions for hybrid satellite terrestrial networks, like an intelligent satellite IP-overlay. Reducing infrastructure costs: Development of all-electric propulsion satellites (i.e. using electric propulsion for transfer orbit as well as station-keeping), in combination with smaller, less expensive launch vehicles as a means to significantly decrease space infrastructure costs. New bus architectures could decrease costs to a point where small satellites become a more attractive option - with numerous advantages in terms of shorter manufacturing cycles, lower concentration of risk, and increased flexibility from an operator's fleet management standpoint. 5
6 HOW to manage the risks? Innovation conflicts with the space industry's technically conservative culture and with operators' heritage requirements. This dilemma requires to delineate real innovation, where new technologies are game changers justifying the extra risk, from evolutions leading to marginal gains. A sound technical risk management approach considering all aspects of design, qualification, manufacturing and testing is essential. Risk evaluation criteria: Available alternatives (can similar performances be achieved with flight proven technologies?). Testability (is ground qualification and testing fully representative of conditions in orbit, over the entire life and considering all interactions at system level?). Equipment criticality and redundancy. Availability of risk mitigation options. Risk / reward ratio. Innovative solutions at system level can often be based on heritage components which are combined and utilized in new ways - leading to a lower risk approach. New risk sharing / risk transfer arrangements shall be investigated jointly by satellite operators, manufacturers, space agencies and the insurance community. 6
7 Conclusions Innovation is essential to the future of our industry, and not just to improve the competitiveness of one operator or manufacturer against its peers. True innovation is not limited to technology developments, but involves a proper combination of technical, economic and market intelligence aspects leading to real value creation. Innovation needs to focus on significant reductions in total system cost, on payload flexibility improvements and on solutions addressing specific market needs, including the video / data convergence. Proper risk management of innovation is key to the continued success of the space industry, requiring close cooperation between the various actors of the sector: operators, industry, space agencies, and insurers. Innovation also needs a long-term vision and sustained commitment and efforts from the various parties. 7
8 Thank you. Philippe Francken Vice President, Risk Management and Innovation SES 8
9 Biography Dr. Francken is Vice President, Risk Management and Innovation at SES. His responsibilities encompass various aspects of satellite and launch vehicle technical risk management, and space insurance. He has also been coordinating SES innovation programme since Prior to this, Dr. Francken held several positions in SES with responsibilities in the areas of satellite and launch vehicle procurement, advanced technologies, reliability analysis and orbital mechanics. Dr. Francken holds a PhD in Theoretical Physics from the University of Brussels. He has been teaching at multiple universities and is the author of numerous publications in international scientific journals and presentations at international scientific conferences. 9
10 About SES SES is a world-leading satellite operator with a fleet of 50 geostationary satellites. The company provides satellite communications services to broadcasters, content and internet service providers, mobile and fixed network operators and business and governmental organisations worldwide. SES stands for long-lasting business relationships, high-quality service and excellence in the broadcasting industry. The culturally diverse regional teams of SES are located around the globe and work closely with customers to meet their specific satellite bandwidth and service requirements. SES (Euronext Paris and Luxembourg Stock Exchange: SESG) holds participations in Ciel in Canada and QuetzSat in Mexico, as well as a strategic participation in satellite infrastructure start-up O3b Networks. Further information under: 10
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