Fog of War and Intelligence Planning in Wargaming. Brant Guillory BayonetGames

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1 Fog of War and Intelligence Planning in Wargaming Brant Guillory BayonetGames

2 Who Am I Head Boardgame Developer & Game Commando, BayonetGames Deputy Brigade S-2, 37th Infantry Brigade Playtest Coordinator / Game Developer, Oberon Associates, Inc. Author, Battle Lab series, Wargamer.com PhD Student Ohio State School of Communication

3 What is the Fog of War Ask 10 people, you get 10 different answers Some excerpts - Fog of War is the state of affairs on the battlefield (or pertaining to it) that is beyond a commander's knowledge. For example, a commander may have a unit which has achieved a specific objective, but the commander is unaware of it due to the fact not having been relayed back to him. A second example may be that a specific objective may house an enemy commander's HQ but that knowledge is withheld for whatever reason; in terms of conditions on the battlefield may appear to be an irrelevant objective or one that seems a dangerous, undefined, or irrelevant mission.

4 What is the Fog of War Ask 10 people, you get 10 different answers Some excerpts - the enemy's course of action is unknown and/or unconfirmed.

5 What is the Fog of War Ask 10 people, you get 10 different answers Some excerpts - Fog of War refers to the confusion and lack of certainty a commander faces while making decisions on how to conduct a battle or war. Since modern war occurs over an area too large for a single commander to view, they rely on information from various sources to develop a mental model of what is occurring. They make their judgment and issue orders based on what they believe is occurring. Lack of information, wrong information, late information, all contribute to create an imperfect perception of what is occurring. This disconnect between what the commander thinks is occurring and what actually is occurring is referred to as the Fog of War.

6 What is the Fog of War Ask 10 people, you get 10 different answers Some excerpts - The Fog of War is the lack of certainty in regard to the intent and composition of the enemy.

7 What is the Fog of War Ask 10 people, you get 10 different answers Some excerpts - It is summed up as uncertainty based on lack of knowledge.

8 What is the Fog of War Ask 10 people, you get 10 different answers Some excerpts - The Fog of War is that period of uncertainty from when the Enemy's intentions are surmised and the enemy's actions are known.

9 What is the Fog of War Ask 10 people, you get 10 different answers Some excerpts - All the things everyone doesn't know for sure during an armed conflict.

10 Common Theme Generally, fog of war is the lack of perfect situational awareness that comes about naturally as a result of actions on the battlefield Present in varying degrees it is never either on or off Curiously enough, the US Army and Marine Corps have no official definitions in their field manuals defining operational terms and graphics.

11 Fog Of War vs Boardgaming How can we apply the problems, and their potential solutions, to boardgaming One area in which our computergaming brethren have our butts kicked Computer models can hide or reveal as much or as little as the programmers desire Much harder to hid information when it s all printed on a counter in front of you

12 Situational Awareness Most people immediately assume the lack of situational awareness is related to information about the enemy What information does the commander need about the enemy? Typically, however, most commanders are most interested in enemy (a) locations (b) strength (c) capabilities (d) supply status (e) morale

13 Knowledge of the Enemy In boardgaming (a) Locations - Known on the map (b) Strength - Printed on the counter (c) Capabilities - Understood from the rules (d) Supply status - Not always simulated, and when it is, it s tracked on the board (e) Morale - Often printed on the counter (Lock n Load) or in the scenario rules (PanzerGrenadier) On the battlefield, this information is often downright impossible to get

14 Other Considerations Wargamers seldom have to deal with three different scout teams reporting a sighting of a tank platoon Regularly-updated situations in the command post vs 30-minute-old information The Truth Is A Moving Target

15 Friendly Fog of War When asking around, only one person explicitly mentioned friendly forces: It can also include uncertainty or lack of knowledge as to your own forces, location, number, state of mind (ready to break, etc.)

16 Friendly Fog of War The fog of war that is often not addressed in a wargame is the friendly fog of war On the hexagonal battlefield, it is rare that units get lost mis-read maps report incorrect locations identify friendly units as enemy ones in fuzzy thermal sights lose a convoy at a tricky road intersection place the radio retrans team in the wrong place

17 Friendly Fog of War

18 Friendly Fog of War

19 Friendly Fog of War

20 Friendly Fog of War Would the 507 th Maintenance Company (of Jessica Lynch infamy) have been ambushed on a wargame map?

21 The Fog of War in Boardgaming Columbia Games blocks system SPI s Modern Battles II series incorporated the idea of untried units neither combatant knows how well the units will perform in battle until the battle is joined SPI s Invasion America had a similar system using question marks (? ) in place of some values until a unit entered combat.

22 Flaws in Execution Columbia s system prevents the opponent from seeing a player s units, but it prevents the opponent from seeing anything of that unit Recon may not be able to determine how well a tank unit can fight, they are certainly capable of at least determining that the enemy unit consists of tanks instead of dismounted infantry SPI s Modern Battles II system does not allow for any unit cohesion of any sort of knowledge (training, manning, etc)

23 SPI s Modern Battles II

24 Columbia s Blocks

25 Columbia s Blocks

26 Columbia s Blocks

27 Priority Information Requirements What do you need to know about the enemy and how do you go about getting it?

28 Information Requirements As noted, we often already know: (a) Locations - Known on the map (b) Strength - Printed on the counter (c) Capabilities - Understood from the rules (d) Supply status - Not always simulated, and when it is, it s tracked on the board (e) Morale - Often printed on the counter So what don t we know?

29 Where s the rat bastard headed?! And how do we kill him when we get there?

30 How to Integrate Battlefield Intel into Boardgaming Intel is critical information needed to make decisions is currently unknown, or known but likely to change Tactical intelligence is specific to the battlespace in which a commander operates needed to make decisions of a direct military nature, involving the employment of battlefield operating systems to accomplish his mission

31 Intel Tied to Battlefield Decisions Intelligence answers key questions on the battlefield that are needed to make timely and appropriate decisions during the fight These decisions are made at, or before, "decision points" on the battlefield Decision Points are the points at which one course of action must be chosen out of the available options There may be multiple decision points

32 An Unrealistically Simple Example I need to kill the enemy to accomplish my mission My best killing system = tanks but slower than my helicopters Need to commit them either left or right before they get to the city In order to decide which way to commit my tanks, I need to know where the enemy is

33 An Unrealistically Simple Example The location of the enemy's main body of forces becomes a key intelligence requirement The highway interchange outside the city becomes my decision point I must decide by then which way to commit the tanks

34 Doctrinal Use of IRs & DPs Typically, IRs & DPs are based on knowledge of enemy's doctrine If enemy tends to approach battle in a certain formation, uncovering part of it allows you to predict the rest of the enemy forces If the enemy tends to guard flanks with wheeled ATGMs on the high ground, then the presence of wheeled ATGMs on the ridge may be an indicator of where the enemy's flank is, allowing the intel geeks to template the rest of the enemy force, and narrow the area in which to focus his commander's main effort.

35 A Real-World Technique 2 COA sketches: Most Likely and Most Dangerous Once two sketches are developed, they are overlaid on top of each other on a map Where COAs diverge = Areas of interest Where COAs overlap = Projected engagement areas

36 However Gamers are not typically bound by enemy doctrine, unless certain limitations are written into the rules So, how can a gamer 'template' an enemy formation when his opponent may not be using that formation, or anything remotely resembling it? How can a gamer "predict" the location of his opponent s tanks, when he can see the tanks on the map?

37 A Way One method is to focus on the key actions needed to take to win the game, and the key decision points at which those actions must be triggered When a gamer s decisions are relative to his own actions, he doesn t need to "predict" any enemy actions, but instead look for other indicators that may tip him off to the enemy's next actions

38 North or South? For instance, are you headed for the north bridge or the south bridge? That decision will likely be influenced by (a) the number of defenders at each bridge (b) how fast the enemy can deploy his reinforcements to that bridge (c) the point at which your movement factors make it imperative to commit north or south, because it would take too many turns to change your direction

39 Scenario 1 US forces Hasty defense along the river 1 IN BN + 1 TK BN forward of the river 1 IN BN behind the river 1 TK BN guarding north bridge 1 TK BN + 1 CAV SQN in reserve The Soviet forces Deliberate attack 2 MRBs leading 1 RECON BN screen north Main body is 5 TK BNs + 1 MRB

40 Scenario 1 If both players are aware of each others' objectives within the game, then the analysis focuses on method Let's assume the US objective is to allow no Soviet units across the river, and the Soviet objective is to seize one bridgehead which the rest of the unit can exploit

41 Scenario 1 The intelligence requirements for each side could be outlined as follows: US #1: Will Soviet forces commit to northern or southern bridgehead? US #2: Will Soviet forces attempt to seize bridgehead with infantry or tank units? Sov #1: Will US forces collapse behind the river and defend from behind the river? Sov #2? Where and when will US forces commit their reserve?

42 Scenario 1 US COAs both concern commitment of reserves Soviets move north? US can wait to commit the reserve Soviet unit commits with infantry units first? US player may be able to delay commitment of reserve and fight straight-up, saving reserve to fight with the Soviet TK BNs The Soviet intel requirements are designed to tell the player (a) how fast can he move forward (b) how quickly he can/should shuffle his TK BNs to the front of the assault

43 Scenario 1a US player has one primary NAI (NAI 1) If TKs are forward, Soviets are likely prepping for assault, If TKs are back, the indicator may be which way the INF are moving It is possible for the Soviet player to feint with INF, and attack in the other direction with TK BNs (This would be an example of a player ignoring doctrine to accomplish his own mission) The Soviet player has two NAIs (A & B) NAI A tells the Soviet player the disposition of the southern defense NAI B the second, the disposition of the reserve

44 Scenario 1b If the game is played with "hidden" objectives then the NAIs change, too The US player needs to know if the Soviet player is even trying to cross the river, or simply seize and hold roads and towns The Soviet player needs to know if the US player is defending along the river, to planning a spoiling attack to disrupt his movement

45 Scenario 1b US #1: Will Soviets occupy towns along south/west side of the river? (This would indicate mission to seize roads/towns, since there is no bridgehead over the river there.) US #2: Will Soviets occupy town at NAI 2? (Again, potentially key crossroads, but not useful for crossing the river.)

46 Scenario 1b Sov #1: Will US infantry battalion cross the river at the southern bridgehead? (Would indicate a spoiling attack, since it would be easier to defend behind the river.) Sov #2: Will US reserve move to the road at NAI K? (This would indicate a counterattack, since the road would speed movement to a bridgehead, but not to a defensive position.)

47 Intel vs Fog of War Even with full knowledge of enemy capabilities, we don t know what he s going to do or how he s going to do it Analyze the mission and set priorities based on the decisions that must be made on the battlefield What decision? When must it be made?

48 A Tool for Intel NAI Observer If this is observed before this turn trigger this action

49 Scenario 1b Sov #1: Will US infantry battalion cross the river at the southern bridgehead? (Would indicate a spoiling attack, since it would be easier to defend behind the river.) Sov #2: Will US reserve move to the road at NAI K? (This would indicate a counterattack, since the road would speed movement to a bridgehead, but not to a defensive position.)

50 A Tool for Intel NAI Observer If this is observed before this turn trigger this action (none) N/A US INF BN moves across to south side of the river 3 2x TK BN echelon forward to meet likely spoiling attack K N/A US TK BNs on the road 4 Commit TK BNs to NORTH bridge

51 Rewarding Good Intel Work There are ways to reward good intel work in boardgaming, besides kicking your opponent s tail How to integrate into boardgaming mechanics?

52 Bonus Actions Neil Garra s Soldier Chess game rewards players with bonus actions Player designates a time & place he expects to see a certain type of unit Indicative of the enemy s COA Presence of unit triggers a prepared FRAGO, giving player a bonus action The idea is simple: the gamer who can correctly predict the actions of an enemy and is thinking ahead should be rewarded over the gamer who is merely assuming that all units on the board are only reacting to the actions of the enemy

53 Bonus Points In a victory-point game (most older SPI games), correct predictive analysis scores victory points for the player Involves no changes to the actions on the map

54 Enhancing Unit Capabilities Units may receive actions faster than normal If artillery is normally delayed a turn while the guns adjust from the previous fire mission, then perhaps alerting the artillery to what the player expects the enemy to do allows them to register some targets ahead of the mission This allows the artillery to react faster if the enemy actually rolls under one of those targets, and fire this turn instead of next turn

55 Bottom Line Nowhere Near the Front Replicating real intelligence work is difficult in a boardgaming environment Fog of War - both friendly and enemy - is greatly reduced on the tabletop Intel focus on the tabletop shifts from enemy status / capabilities to enemy actions and indicators Intel estimates of enemy s (potential) actions often driven by prior assessments of capabilities Lack of coherent doctrinal limitations makes real predictive analysis nearly impossible

56 Questions? Comments? THANK YOU! Brant Guillory

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