PÖYRY INSIGHT. World Fibre Outlook up to 2025

Transcription

1 PÖYRY INSIGHT World Fibre Outlook up to 2025

2 Pulp market in transition Pöyry s new fibre supply and demand outlook, scheduled to be published in mid-november 2012, provides an invaluable strategic platform and essential business information for all business participants, including pulp and paper companies, chemicals, machinery and related suppliers, investors, financiers, institutions, pulp traders, logistics companies and other interest groups. 2 Pöyry s new World Fibre Outlook up to 2025 provides in-depth analysis and long-term forecasts of major economic and market trends affecting the demand, supply and pricing of papermaking fibre and specialty pulps in all key regions of the world. The study lays out the long-term dynamics of the global papermaking and regenerated cellulosic fibre markets, which currently face multiple challenges in terms of demand erosion in the graphic paper sector on one hand, and evolving new opportunities stemming from furnish changes and substitution on the other. Fibre strategy continues to be at the core of success for pulp and paper firms. For some businesses, big or small, up- or downstream, the evolving fibre market has brought about new opportunities, while some firms have for reason or another failed to capture these opportunities. Some companies have even been forced to exit the industry for not being able to successfully deal with the changing global and competitive dynamics. One of the underlying causes of success in the pulp and paper industry is to understand the unique fibre supply and demand dynamics, and how these dynamics intertwine with one s business model. The strong contrast between mature and emerging markets growth, and uneven ESSENTIAL ISSUES: Paper and paperboard demand and production trends Furnish trends Global fibre supply/demand balancing dilemma Future of market pulp Scenario rehearsals: graphic paper sunset, growth of tissue paper demand, shutdown of non-wood pulp mills, rising land costs, China boom or bust? global distribution of fibre resources, have been the main challenges of the pulp and paper industry seeking long-term success on the international markets. Pöyry s World Fibre Outlook aims to cast light on various geographic, market and competition factors that are instrumental in determining the strategic orientation of pulp and paper industry firms all over the world. The world demand for fibre for papermaking and textile applications continues to grow. Despite economic challenges in the West, and weakening demand for graphic papers in mature markets, the world consumption of papermaking fibre reached the all-time high of 407 million tons in 2011, up by 5.4 million tons or 1.3% from The demand for dissolving pulp grew by a staggering 15%, amounting to million tons in Medium-term fibre demand prospects are very challenging for mature markets but much better for emerging regions in Asia and Latin America. However, the world economy is still

3 fragile, and risks to the downside remain. The fibre market will face discontinuities that will shape the industry in many ways. First, the recession and 2011 slowdown clearly revealed the relative weakness of paper-based media, which is competing with online applications for consumer time. The emergence of new media will have important implications on papermaking fibre demand. The declining graphic paper consumption in the mature markets will limit the availability of recovered paper for collection, and cause supply problems especially for the fibre-poor regions such as Asia. Second, the collection and utilization recovered paper for fibre-based packaging board production has increased rapidly all over the world due to economic and environmental reasons. Extended recovered paper collection has led to exploitation of lower quality sources and hence rapid deterioration of material quality, while the prices of recovered paper have been hitting painful levels. Third, the tissue paper industry faces multiple challenges in terms of fibre supply. The hygiene sector shares the same problems as the packaging industry in terms of recovered paper availability and quality. Fibre substitution by high quality virgin fibre, partly in response to recycled fibre contamination and cost pressures, presents a measurable opportunity for hardwood pulp producers. Our World Fibre Outlook up to 2025 presents an independent, long-term forecast of global papermaking fibre and specialty pulp market. The study will help understand the likely impacts of the various fibre market trends on the global pulp and paper industry. The main focus will be on pulp and recovered paper demand and changes in papermaking furnish patterns, supply, trade and pricing. Specific issues to be dealt with include the role of emerging regions in the global fibre supply, competition for recovered paper, role of non-wood pulps, substitution and future of specialty pulps, to mention but a few. Scenario rehearsals will quantify the impacts of possible discontinuities in the fibre market business environment. Deliverables include a customized video conference/webcast and discussion with the idea of bringing the study findings, impacts and implications closer to issues revolving around your business. The webcast will be hosted by the authors of the study, supported by fibre market and pulp industry specialists. 3

4 CONTENTS Analysis and synthesis Driving forces of the pulp industry Paper and paperboard supply/demand trends by region Alternative fibre resources; key geographies in terms of forest, non-wood and recovered fibre supply Global fibre supply/demand balancing dilemma Papermaking fibre furnish developments Demand, supply and net trade of paper grade pulps total and market pulps and recovered paper through 2025 Pulp and recovered paper trade flows between world regions Current pulp supply structure; key players, industry concentration, mill technology & asset metrics Price trends selected wood pulps and recovered paper grades End uses and quality issues Global outlook for specialty pulps (dissolving, fluff) Scenario rehearsals Product areas Papermaking fibre Mechanical wood pulp Semi-chemical wood pulp Chemical wood pulps BSKP BHKP UKP Sulphite pulps Non-wood pulps Recovered paper Dissolving and other high-alpha pulps Fluff pulp Geographic coverage North America Western Europe Eastern Europe Middle East Japan China Rest of Asia Latin America Africa Oceania Deliverables Executive report Statistical annexes Memory stick enclosed with the printed report 1-2 hour customized video conference/webcast & discussion ORDER FORM World Fibre Outlook up to EDITION To order, please fill in the order form and send to Ms. Tarja Laitinen Tel: Fax: THANK YOU FOR ORDERING!

5 ORDER FORM World Fibre Outlook up to EDITION The report will be published in Month 2012 TO ORDER PLEASE COMPLETE AND RETURN THE BELOW. World Fibre Outlook up to 2025 (1 hard copy and pdf file) EUR (excl. VAT) Additional copies EUR hour video conference & discussion METHOD OF PAYMENT AND DELIVERY: Please invoice me. Direct bank transfer: Nordea Bank Finland Plc. Satamaradankatu 5 B FI Nordea Finland Account name: Pöyry Management Consulting Oy Account number: (EUR) Swift code: NDEAFIHH IBAN: FI An invoice will be issued on order, and the report dispatched on receipt of payment. Name: Position: Company: Phone: Address: Fax: City: Postal code: VAT No: Country: Signature: Return to: Ms. Tarja Laitinen Tel: Fax: tarja.laitinen@poyry.com Pöyry Management Consulting Oy P.O.Box 4, Jaakonkatu 3 FI VANTAA, Finland

6 Mr. Timo Suhonen Tel Mr. Tomi Amberla Tel Pöyry Management Consulting Oy P.O.Box 4, Jaakonkatu 3 FI VANTAA, Finland Tel Photo: Paula Marjanen, Seppo Kaksonen Pöyry is a global consulting and engineering company dedicated to balanced sustainability and responsible business. With innovation, quality and integrity at our core, we deliver best-in-class strategic advisory, engineering, project implementation and operations support services. Our in-depth expertise extends to the fields of energy, forest industry, chemicals & biorefining, mining & metals, transportation, water and real estate. Pöyry has about 7,000 experts and an extensive local office network.