The Sciences Po Series in International Relations and Political Economy

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1 The Sciences Po Series in International Relations and Political Economy Series Editor, Christian Lequesne This series consists of works emanating from the foremost French researchers from Sciences Po, Paris. Sciences Po was founded in 1872 and is today one of the most prestigious universities for teaching and research in social sciences in France, recognized worldwide. This series focuses on the transformations of the international arena, in a world where the state, though its sovereignty is questioned, reinvents itself. The series explores the effects on international relations and the world economy of regionalization, globalization (not only of trade and finance but also of culture), and transnational flows at large. This evolution in world affairs sustains a variety of networks from the ideological to the criminal or terrorist. Besides the geopolitical transformations of the globalized planet, the new political economy of the world has a decided impact on its destiny as well, and this series hopes to uncover what that is. Published by Palgrave Macmillan: Politics In China : Moving Frontiers edited by Françoise Mengin and Jean-Louis Rocca Tropical Forests, International Jungle : The Underside of Global Ecopolitics by Marie-Claude Smouts, translated by Cynthia Schoch The Political Economy of Emerging Markets : Actors, Institutions and Financial Crises in Latin America by Javier Santiso Cyber China: Reshaping National Identities in the Age of Information edited by Françoise Mengin With Us or Against Us: Studies in Global Anti-Americanism edited by Denis Lacorne and Tony Judt Vietnam s New Order: International Perspectives on the State and Reform in Vietnam edited by Stéphanie Balme and Mark Sidel Equality and Transparency: A Strategic Perspective on Affi rmative Action in American Law by Daniel Sabbagh, translated by Cynthia Schoch and John Atherton Moralizing International Relations: Called to Account by Ariel Colonomos, translated by Chris Turner Norms over Force: The Enigma of European Power by Zaki Laidi, translated from the French by Cynthia Schoch Democracies at War against Terrorism: A Comparative Perspective edited by Samy Cohen, translated by John Atherton, Roger Leverdier, Leslie Piquemal, and Cynthia Schoch

2 Justifying War? From Humanitarian Intervention to Counterterrorism edited by Gilles Andréani and Pierre Hassner, translated by John Hulsey, Leslie Piquemal, Ros Schwartz, and Chris Turner An Identity for Europe: The Relevance of Multiculturalism in EU Construction edited by Riva Kastoryano, translated by Susan Emanuel The Politics of Regional Integration in Latin America: Theoretical and Comparative Explorations by Olivier Dabène Central and Eastern Europe: Europeanization and Social Change by François Bafoil, translated by Chris Turner Building Constitutionalism in China edited by Stéphanie Balme and Michael W. Dowdle In the Name of the Nation: Nationalism and Politics in Contemporary Russia by Marlène Laruelle Organized Crime and States: The Hidden Face of Politics edited by Jean-Louis Briquet and Gilles Favarel-Garrigues Israel s Asymmetric Wars by Samy Cohen, translated by Cynthia Schoch China and India in Central Asia: A New Great Game? edited by Marlène Laruelle, Jean-François Huchet, Sébastien Peyrouse, and Bayram Balci Making Peace: The Contribution of International Institutions edited by Guillaume Devin, translated by Roger Leverdier War Veterans in Postwar Situations: Chechnya, Serbia, Turkey, Peru, and Côte d Ivoire edited by Nathalie Duclos The RAND Corporation ( ): The Reconfi guration of Strategic Studies in the United States by Jean-Loup Samaan, translated by Renuka George Limited Achievements: Obama s Foreign Policy by Zaki Laïdi, translated by Carolyn Avery Diplomacy of Connivance by Bertrand Badie, translated by Cynthia Schoch and William Snow Democracy at Large: NGOs, Political Foundations, Think Tanks, and International Organizations edited by Boris Petric The Gamble of War: Is It Possible to Justify Preventive War? by Ariel Colonomos, translated by Chris Turner

3 The Gamble of War Is It Possible to Justify Preventive War? Ariel Colonomos Translated by Chris Turner

4 THE GAMBLE OF WAR Copyright Ariel Colonomos and Éditions Denoël, Softcover reprint of the hardcover 1st edition 2013 All rights reserved. First published in French in 2009 as Le pari de la guerre. Guerre préventive, guerre juste? by Éditions Denoël, Paris, France. First published in English in 2013 by PALGRAVE MACMILLAN in the United States a division of St. Martin s Press LLC, 175 Fifth Avenue, New York, NY Where this book is distributed in the UK, Europe and the rest of the world, this is by Palgrave Macmillan, a division of Macmillan Publishers Limited, registered in England, company number , of Houndmills, Basingstoke, Hampshire RG21 6XS. Palgrave Macmillan is the global academic imprint of the above companies and has companies and representatives throughout the world. Palgrave and Macmillan are registered trademarks in the United States, the United Kingdom, Europe and other countries. ISBN ISBN (ebook) DOI / Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data Colonomos, Ariel. [Pari de la guerre. English] The gamble of war : is it possible to justify preventive war? / Ariel Colonomos ; translated by Chris Turner. p. cm. (The sciences Po series in international relations and political economy) "First published in French as Le pari de la guerre. Guerre preventive, guerre juste? by Ariel Colonomos, (c) by Editions Denoel, 2009" T.p. verso. Includes index. ISBN (alk. paper) 1. War Moral and ethical aspects. 2. Preemptive attack (Military science) 3. Security, International. I. Title. U22.C dc A catalogue record of the book is available from the British Library. Design by Newgen Imaging Systems (P) Ltd., Chennai, India. First edition: February

5 C ONTENTS List of Figures, Graphs, and Tables Acknowledgments vii ix Introduction: New Departures in the Military Arena 1 Part 1 On the Forms of Preventive War One Narrating, Explaining, Defining Preventive War 17 Two A Just War? 53 Part 2 Waging War Three On Temperance 81 Four Precision as Justification 99 Five Targeted Killings: Manhunts 145 Part 3 Moral Luck Six Good or Bad Fortune 177 Seven Possible Worlds 209 Conclusion: The Gamble on the Best of All Worlds 231 Notes 237 Name Index 273 Thematic Index 275

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7 F IGURES, GRAPHS, AND TABLES Figures 4.1 The Five Rings, Doctrine of the American Air Force Targeted Killings, the Trajectory of Norms The Gordian Knot Practices, Norms, System: The Contingency of Norms 220 Graphs 5.1 Suicide Attacks and Failures, Targeted Killings by Month, November 2000 November Attempted Targeted Killings per Month, November 2000 November Targeted Killings by Organization Targeted Killings by Age of Target Methods of Elimination in Percentage Collateral Damage and Targeted Killings, November 2000 June Civilian Victims Killed by Methods Civilian Victims Wounded by Methods 163

8 viii Figures, Graphs, and Tables 5.10 Civilians Killed by Age Sites of Targeted Killing Operations (Including Failures) 166 Tables 1.1 Preventive Wars of the Great Powers, American Preventive Action: The Cold War and Post-9/ Wars and International Law, Wars and International Law, Wars and International Law, 1989 present Losses in American Wars,

9 A CKNOWLEDGMENTS This book is a result of a research program that has run for several years. CERI and Sciences Po have afforded me the freedom to undertake many trips and stay many times in the United States and Israel where I conducted the various interviews essential to my work, not only with military personnel, but also with lawyers, humanitarians, and members of certain think tanks. The Centre d études des sciences sociales de la Défense also contributed to the funding of this project. I have been surprised by the willingness of my interlocutors to speak to me in a field security that has a reputation for being closed or impenetrable. For reasons as much to do with the reader s convenience as with the desire for anonymity on the part of some of my interlocutors, reference to the interviews does not appear in the text. The justification of war has been at the heart of several courses I have taught at Sciences Po, where I have been able to test various hypotheses of this work as it has progressed. I have very happy memories of these sessions and of the students curiosity for the subject as the Iraq War unfolded live. My stays at Columbia University, New York, teaching and researching in made an indispensable contribution to the writing of this book. Not only did I teach the ethics of international relations and the ethics of war at the School of International and Public Affairs (SIPA) there, but I also encountered an intellectual and academic committee to which I owe a great deal. I wish most particularly to express my deep gratitude to the various members of the Saltzman Institute of War and Peace Studies for their warm and professional welcome. I was able to mix there with the best specialists on war, to benefit from their advice and erudition, and to test out the ideas of this book under fire. Robert Jervis and Jack Snyder were unfailingly supportive, always available, and ready to talk. In this way they contradicted one of the basic principles of the realist theory to which they are so attached: the selfish maximization of interests.

10 x Acknowledgments Several colleagues and friends agreed to read all or part of this manuscript, for which I thank them heartily. Pierre Hassner was unable to escape this task. Having a nearby office, he was quite particularly exposed to my demands. Pierre Birnbaum had the patience and solicitude to read and comment on the whole of the manuscript. Both in Paris and in New York he followed with a friendly eye the entire at times chaotic genesis of these years of work. Once again Patrick Pharo has shared his knowledge of sociology and moral philosophy with me and he gave me the opportunity in 2006, during one of his seminars, to lay out some of the ideas developed in the second chapter. I would like to thank Tony Lang for his invitation to the conference he organized at St. Andrews in summer 2006, at which I outlined the general framework of this project, and also for reading the manuscript. I have also learned a great deal from participating in conferences organized by the military relating to the ethics of war at which I presented my work most notably the conference held at Amsterdam in autumn 2006 sponsored by the Defense and Naval Ministry. Even though he was in the final stages of writing his own book, Volker Heinz found the time to read and comment on my manuscript. Christian Nadeau also shared with me his erudite and ecumenical philosophical wisdom. I learned much from interacting with his colleagues at Montreal during the conference to which he invited me in 2005 and subsequently at a doctoral seminar in I would also like to thank Kora Andrieu, Laetitia Bucaille, Robin Coupland, Speranta Dumitru, Guillaume Erner, Richard Garfield, Collin Kahl, Christopher Kutz, George Lucas, Larry May, Thomas Richard, Ruti Teitel, and Nancy Sherman. And, of course, Gloria Origgi. I also want to thank Chris Turner for his work as translator and Christian Lequesne and the CERI for having funded this translation. Lastly, Denoël Publishing took in this manuscript (its original French version) with great spontaneity, for which I thank its director Olivier Rubinstein. Thanks here go to Abel Gershenfeld. Some years ago, I had unintentionally drawn his attention to a subject that interested and attracted him, and to a thesis as I learned only later with which he instinctively disagreed. I had not planned, either, that we should work together. This book s adventure turned out to be a piece of good fortune.