Historical Imagination and Economic Reality: Counterfactual History and the American Civil War

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1 Historical Imagination and Economic Reality: Counterfactual History and the American Civil War Background Notes How Did I Get Involved with A Counterfactual History of The Civil War? In 1954 I Read A Novel Set In A World Where The South Won The Civil War The Author in 1955 Bring the Jubilee By Ward Moore [1953] 1

2 Background Notes 1959: The Editors of Look Magazine Ask Mckinlay Kantor To Write An Article About The Civil War If the South Had Won The Civil War Bantam Books, 1960 What IS Counterfactual History? Historians: An Exercise In Imagination Interesting Questions But You Don t Take them Seriously Economists: An Exercise In Economic Theory Use An Economic Model To Generate Endless Possible Outcomes Can We Blend These Two Approaches? 2

3 A Recipe for Counterfactual History Two Parts Historical Reality One Part Imagination One Part Common Sense Economists? Mix Ingredients and Pour Into a Historical Mold Serve With A Healthy Dose of Skepticism Bon Appetit! Counterfactual History Is A Hard Sell 1998: I Circulated A Paper About A Counterfactual Civil War It Got Mixed Reviews Economists: Skip The First Half Of The Paper Historians: Second Half Is Too Dull And It s Not History Finally I Sent It To Civil War History It Was Accepted! 3

4 So I Decide to Write a Book Spring 2005: The Confederate States of America: What Might Have Been Each Chapter of the Book Asks a Counterfactual Question Chapter 1: Was This War Inevitable? Chapter 2: Could the South Win? Chapter 3: HOW Could the South Win? Chapter 4: What Was the Future for the Confederacy? Chapter 5: What Was the Future for Everyone Else? 4

5 Was This War Inevitable? To Economists Wars Are Never Inevitable -- They Are Irrational Not Only Are Wars Expensive -- They Are Unpredictable Economic Theory Says There Must Be a Cheaper and More Certain Solution Yet Wars Happen all the time And Historians Often Find Economic Causes Especially in the Case of the Civil War Pre 1960s Charles Beard: The War Was An Irrepressible Conflict A Second American Revolution Post 1960s Enter Counterfactual History: The Civil War Was NOT A Revolution -- Without the War Industrial Growth Would Be Even Faster 2005: Maybe The Beards Were Right! A Counterfactual Scenario With No War Was Not A Realistic Option 5

6 Conflicting Visions Conflicting Visions 6

7 Cliometrics And The Antebellum South South Is Prospering Slavery Is Very Profitable 50% Personal Estate is Slaves BUT Northern States Are Gaining Political & Economic Dominance Southerners Want To Escape Northern Dominance If There Is No War Northern Agenda Prevails! So The South Secedes From The Union Even Though That Means WAR WHAT WOULD HAPPEN IF THE SOUTH 7

8 The Future Of The Confederacy? Southerners Imagined A Bright Future Cotton, Slaves And Endless Prosperity Reality Was That The Cotton Boom Was Over Cotton, Slaves And Endless Poverty And What About Slavery? Slavery And The Confederacy? Southerners Imagined They Were Protecting Slavery From The Northern Abolitionists Reality Was A Falling Demand For Cotton Falling Prices Of Slaves Capital Losses To Slaveholders 8

9 Slavery And The Confederacy? Reality Was That Emancipation Would Look Appealing To Slaveholders By The Mid-1880s The CSA Would Have Enacted Compensated Emancipation But The Confederate Economy Would Still Lag Well Behind The United States The Confederacy In 1900? The Reality of the CSA in 1900 Looks a Lot Like The Post-bellum South of OKOF And That Seems Rather Unimaginative Where is the Excitement? It is Time to Add some Imagination To Our Story What s Happening Everywhere Else? 9

10 The United States In 1900? Reality In 1900 For The U.S. Is Harder To Predict Impact Of Losing the War Would Include: Loss of Territory & Population A Powerful Slave Neighbor Political Instability Uncertain Economic Agenda Immigration Policy The Rest of the World In 1900? Economic/Political Power of The United States Would be Significantly Reduced Both The United States And The Confederacy Would Seek Allies: Confederacy Britain and France United States Imperial Germany 10

11 North America Circa 1900 U.S. East Coast C.S.A. East Coast C.S.A. Control British Control U.S. West Coast 1914? Deja Vue All Over Again 11