Hierarchy Process. The Analytic. Bruce L. Golden Edward A. Wasil Patrick T. Harker (Eds.) Applications and Studies

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2 Bruce L. Golden Edward A. Wasil Patrick T. Harker (Eds.) The Analytic Hierarchy Process Applications and Studies With Contributions by 1. M. Alexander, W D. Daniel Jr., 1. G. Dolan, L. P. Fatti, B. L. Golden, R. P. Hamalainen, P. T. Harker, D. E. Levy, R. Lewis, M. 1. Liberatore, E. R. MacCormac, R. 1. Might, K H. Mitchell, W R. Partridge, 1. B. Roura-Agusti, 1. Ruusunen, T. L. Saaty, K Tone, L. G. Vargas, 1. G. Vlahakis, Q. Wang, E. A. Wasil, S. Yanagisawa With 60 Figures Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg New York London Paris Tokyo Hong Kong

3 Professor Bruce L. Golden Department of Management Science and Statistics College of Business and Management University of Maryland College Park, MD 20742, USA Assistant Professor Edward A. Wasil Kogod College of Business Administration American University Washington, D.C , USA Assistant Professor Patrick T Harker The Wharton School The University of Pennsylvania Philadelphia PA 19104, USA ISBN ISBN (ebook) DOl / This work is subject to copyright. All rights are reserved, whether the whole or part of the material is concerned, specifically the rights oftranslation, reprinting, reuse ofillustrations, recitation, broadcasting, reproduction on microfilms or in other ways, and storage in data banks. Duplication of this publication or parts thereof is only permitted under the provisions of the German Copyright Law of September 9,1965, in its version of June 24, and a copyright fee must always be paid. Violations fall under the proscicution act of the German Copyright Law. by Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg 1989 Softcover reprint of the hardcover 1 st edition 1989 The use of registered names, trademarks, etc. in this publication does not imply, even in the absence ofa specific statement, that such names are exempt from the relevant protective laws and regulations and therefore free for general use. 2142/

4 CONTENTS 1. OVERVIEW 1. Introduction Bruce L. Golden, Edward A. Wasil, and Patrick T. Harker 2. The Art and Science of Decision Making: The Analytic Hierarchy Process Patrick T. Harker 3. Applications of the Analytic Hierarchy Process: A Categorized, Annotated Bibliography Bruce L. Golden, Edward A. Wasil, and Doug E. Levy II. RECENT DEVELOPMENTS 4. Group Decision Making and the AHP Thomas L. Saaty 5. An Alternate Measure of Consistency Bruce L. Golden and Qiwen Wang APPLICATIONS AND STUDIES III. PROJECT SELECTION 6. A Decision Support Approach for R&D Project Selection Matthew J. Liberatore Project Selection by an Integrated Decision Aid Jukka Ruusunen and Raimo P. Hamalainen Water Research Planning in South Africa L. Paul Fatti 122 IV. APPLICATIONS TO THE ELECTRIC UTILITY INDUSTRY 9. Forecasting Loads and Designing Rates for Electric Util ities Earl R. MacCormac Predicting a National Acid Rain Policy Robert Lewis and Doug E. Levy 155

5 VI V. DECISION MAKING IN THE FEDERAL GOVERNMENT 11. Decision Support for War Games 171 Robert J. Might and William D. Daniel Jr. 12. Assessment of Security at Facilities that Produce Nuclear Weapons 182 John G. Vlahakis and William R. Partridge VI. DIVERSE REAL-WORLD MODELS 13. AHP in Practice: Applications and Observations from a Management Consulting Perspective 192 Kenneth H. Mitchell and Edward A. Wasil 14. Choosing Initial Antibiotic Therapy for Acute Pyelonephritis 213 James G. Dolan 15. An Analysis of Conflict in Northern Ireland 225 Joyce M. Alexander 16. Site Selection for a Large Scale Integrated Circuits Factory 242 Kaoru Tone and Shigeru Yanagisawa 17. Business Strategy Formulation for a Financial Institution in a Developing Country 251 Luis G. Vargas and J. Bernat Roura-Agusti