#1 question from public: Where can I see aurora?

Save this PDF as:
 WORD  PNG  TXT  JPG

Size: px
Start display at page:

Download "#1 question from public: Where can I see aurora?"

Transcription

1 Transformative Crowd-sourcing for Neo-geospace Liz MacDonald NS GSFC What major gaps in scientific understanding or engineering capability limits our ability to describe Sun-Earth connections? #1 question from public: Where can I see aurora? Lack of prediction of Bz in operational model urora strength often unpredictable more than an hour in advance Lack of realistic aurora modeling coarse, smooth, physics gaps Lack of realistic global modeling including heavy ions largest events have largest uncertainty

2 Where is discovery science likely to occur? Exactly between regions, at these gaps M-I coupling/mapping High/mid/low latitudes Storms/substorms How can we predict the occurrence of, and reaction to, space weather? Crowdsourcing is an important new tool. Thousands of eyes on the sky many examples of picking up rare phenomena We need people both as soft sensors, with data and brain power Where are we at now? urorasaurus is part of emerging citizen science and open innovation movements Huge public interest in aurora chasing, bucket list 1 st solar maximum with social media and other new transformative technologies Science communication, our jargon holds us back

3 urorasaurus.org pple ios & ndroid apps e of the SWPC aurora forecast auroral oval is colored to lity of visible aurora. 6. ur orasaur us oper ational product Outcomes: Figure 7. screenshot of the urorasaurus aurora map, using the forecast data provided by SWPC, with the new urorasaurus view- New global, real-time data sources from citizen scientists 2000 participants and tweets lerts of auroral visibility for the public line shown (red). Observational data from users 20 articles is also shown. Selected Papers (of >10 submitted so far) 6 articles In 18 months, our database has more than 4200 users, more than 2700 reports, and votes on more than 270,000 tweets. MacDonald, E.., et al., urorasaurus: citizen science platform for viewing and reporting the aurora, Space Weather, doi: /2015SW001214, Conclusions Case, N.., al., Mapping uroral ctivity with Twitter, Geophys. Res. Lett., 42, doi: /2015gl063709, erence between the Case, N.., et al., urorasaurus and the St Patrick s Day storm, stronomy & Geophysics, 56 (3), estimated view-line is shown. Case, N.., E.. MacDonald, and R. Viereck (2016), Using citizen science reports to define the equatorial extent of auroral visibility, Space Weather, 14, doi: /2015sw rified Tapia,.; tweets Lalone, Nicolas; and (2014) Crowdsourcing positive Rare Events: Using Beauty to Draw Participants into Science and Early Warning Systems, 11th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management (ISCRM). May 18-21, 2014 he SWPC view-line is blue. Using nearly 300 observations of the aurora, provided by citize determine the equatorial boundary, both in the northern and an aurora might be seen based on its intensity. We found that conservative and that an aurora was often visible further equa adapting the view-line parameters, using the observations in t to accurately represent the maximum distance from which an p v t d a a o t T S v o a w b meters, so that it better a function of P() max, in w-line in Figure 6. fit sibility chance, and the r fit (blue) produce a new The work presented here also forms part of the wider uroras alerts its users as to when they might be able to see an aurora that has proved highly popular. new, open innovation, geospatial, crowdsourcing, open source platform and public-private partnership Join us! References & cknow ledgem ents MacDonald et al., SW, 2015, doi: /2015SW Case POC: et Elizabeth al., SW, submitted MacDonald, This material is based upon the work supported, in part, by the National

4 Quo Vadis? urorasaurus in 2022 beginning of the next solar max 1. urorasaurus probably doesn t exist, or has evolved significantly so as to be almost unrecognizable (this would be a good thing!) 2. New tech need to foster interdisciplinary connections with high tech industries, IoT, software, hardware, commercial space/weather, social sciences, in order to be ready. Need $ soon to get started. (last time late) 3. My ideas... Please talk to Liz about how we can move them forward together

5 4. National/international space weather preparedness vs. disruptive technology 5. Citizen science being used operationally, globally 6. Multiple skins and translations of urorasaurus for other phenomena sprites, NLC s, crises? 7. Integrated image analysis citizen science 8. Integrated maker activities, make your own filter 9. Integrated to weather apps 10. Integrated community/social platform 11. New educational outreach, broader public awareness around observable space weather Better terminology (hope!) 12. Discoveries of rare mid-latitude storm-time phenomena (w/ ICON, MNGO?)

6 urorasaurus.org Citizen scientist video credit: Neil Zeller