Navigating the Arctic Rush

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1 Navigating the Arctic Rush Heidi Kuusniemi Professor, Director Department of Navigation and Positioning Finnish Geospatial Research Institute (FGI), President Nordic Institute of Navigation, Stanford's 2015 PNT Symposium 13 th November 2015

2 Outline Defining the Arctic Navigation requirements in the Arctic Challenges in the Arctic Possible solutions Conclusions

3 Defining the Arctic Area north of the Arctic circle north of the Equator 1/6 of the Earth s landmass Source: CIA World Fact Book 30 mill km 2 / 11.5 mill mi 2 8 countries / 4 mill people 24 hours - all time zones 25% world reserves of oil & gas Shorter shipping routes

4 Finnish interest in the Arctic (1) The Arctic is an area of growing strategic importance The European Union has an important role to play in supporting Arctic cooperation protecting and preserving the Arctic and promoting sustainable use of resources Finland is a member of the Arctic Council, a leading intergovernmental forum promoting Arctic cooperation, coordination and interaction Finland s Arctic strategy emphasizes creation of new business opportunities, the region s security and stability and international cooperation core focus areas are on marine technology and shipping, mining, energy and renewable energy sources increasing Arctic expertise through research Photo: Finnish Transport Agency

5 Finnish interest in the Arctic (2) Over 85% of Finnish gross national product comes from goods transported to and/or from Finland via sea All Finnish seaports freeze during normal winter Over 100 years of Finnish icebreaking history, starting from 1889 Expertise in winter navigation and ice-breaking in the Baltic Sea Transferring the knowledge more broadly to be applied to the Arctic Photo: Finnish Transport Agency

6 Ice melt in the Arctic (1) 10-year averages between 1979 and 2008 and yearly averages for 2007, 2012, and 2015 of the daily ice extent in the Northern Hemisphere Source: Comiso et al., Current State of the Sea Ice Cover, NASA,

7 Ice melt in the Arctic (2) Source: ESA Arctic sea-ice thickness in October 2010, 2011, 2012 and 2013 based on data from ESA s CryoSat mission

8 Ice conditions in the Arctic Types of ice New ice (< 10 cm) Young ice (10 cm- 30 cm) First-year ice (> 30 cm) Multi-year ice (2-4 m) Glacial ice (<1 m - > 5 m) Source: Silja Line, Finland Multi-year and glacial ice most hazardous to even ships with high ice-class Source: Pixabay

9 Increased navigation needs (1) More activity in shipping N-W and N-E (Northern) passage Shorter distances than with the traditional routes Access to remote areas for logistics Photo: Finnish Transport Agency Source: Discovering the Arctic, UK

10 Siberia Arctic Ocean Northern Sea Route Northwest Passage Trans Polar Route? Greenland Pacific Ocean North Atlantic Ocean North America Source: Jaakko Savisaari, Atlas Elektronic Finland Ltd.

11 Finnish icebreakers returning from their summer season ice management missions in the Chukchi Sea, off the coast of Alaska Route plan with ice concentration Nordica Fennica N-W passage 30 October 2015 Source: Robin Berglund, VTT, Finland and Arctia Shipping Ltd., Finland Ice-breaker URHO VIDEO Arctia Ltd.

12 Increased navigation needs (2) More overall activity Oil and gas exploration Tourism continuously increasing Fishing in new areas, longer season Mapping, surveying, and scientific observations Land and off-shore: seismic surveys, rig positioning Hydrography, marine charts, seabed mapping Environment monitoring Source: Pixabay Source: Visit Helsinki

13 Increased navigation needs (3) More aircrafts are flying in the Arctic Small aircrafts and helicopters are very important for transportation of goods and people to remote areas Increased en-route traffic in Arctic air space Transpolar flights Source: ESA Source: Pixabay

14 Outline Defining the Arctic Navigation requirements in the Arctic Challenges in the Arctic Possible solutions Conclusions

15 Navigation requirements in the Arctic Minimum user requirements by the IMO* Horizontal positioning accuracies < 10 m in oceanic and coastal areas as well as restricted waterways Critical traffic areas (ports) < 1 m IMO s International Code for Ships Operating in Polar Waters (Polar Code), starting from 2017, takes a stand also on navigation and receiving information about ice conditions In aviation, the LPV 200 (Localizer Performance with Vertical Guidance) for GNSS-based precision approach, defines the vertical alert limit at 35 m the degree to which knowledge of the aircraft altitude must be protected Requirement in Arctic land and off-shore positioning is typically high accuracy - at least sub-meter High integrity and availability * International Maritime Organization Res. A.915(22), 2002

16 Outline Defining the Arctic Navigation requirements in the Arctic Challenges in the Arctic Possible solutions Conclusions

17 Challenges in the Arctic (1) Environment Rough weather Marine navigation: drifting ice patches and hull-penetrating multiyear ice The area is remote and distances large Very late emergency response Source: Canadian Ice Service Poorly mapped areas - both at land and sea Improved access to geospatial data could help better to predict, understand and react to changes in the Arctic Improved sea charts quality and availability

18 Challenges in the Arctic (2) Darkness and limited visibility

19 Challenges in the Arctic (3) Changing ice conditions Source: Finnish Transport Agency Source: Finnish Transport Agency After only one hour

20 Challenges in the Arctic (4) Higher ecological impact of an accident The Arctic environment is vulnerable and very slow in regeneration after for instance an oil spill Limitations with navigation technologies Poor heading accuracy both magnetic and inertial Degraded GNSS performance Lack of communications infrastructure Lack of radio-navigation infrastructure Source: NY Times, FGI s test and data collection campaign M/S Viking Line Amorella Northern Baltic Sea February 2015

21 GNSS limitations - geometry GPS, Beidou and Galileo satellite inclination angles: 55º, 55º and 56º Low elevation angles in polar areas Good for the HDOP Bad for VDOP degraded altitude accuracy Multi-GNSS and sensor aiding helps Higher noise levels in observations Slightly better with GLONASS (65º) Difficulties with GNSS augmentation Poor visibility of GEO satellites (e.g. EGNOS and WAAS) Sparse infrastructure for GNSS augmentation Longyearbyen, Norway ~ N 78.2, E :00 (UTC+2)

22 GNSS limitations - ionosphere (1) In the Arctic the ionosphere is characterized by an enhanced electron precipitation causing an increased ionospheric variability Solar activity driven ionospheric storms Scintillation: not as strong as in Equatorial areas, but may occur at any time in the day Northern lights are a visible example of the increased activity at high latitudes NOOA: Intensity and location of the aurora Lapland

23 GNSS limitations - ionosphere (2) NOOA: Solar Cycle Sunspot Numbers

24 GNSS limitations - augmentation systems (1) Source: ESA, Navipedia SBAS systems either operational, under implementation or under feasibility studies

25 GNSS limitations - augmentation systems (2) EGNOS performance at Ivalo airport At Ivalo: EGNOS PRN 120 at 8 EGNOS PRN 136 at 11 (EGNOS PRN 126 at 11 ) Ivalo N E Year HPE 95% daily average (m) VPE 95% daily average (m) EGNOS availability (%) ICAO* req. for EGNOS: HPE 95 < 3 m, VPE 95 < 4 m, Availability > 99% Source: Finavia * International Civil Aviation Organization

26 GNSS limitations - augmentation systems (3) EGNOS performance at Ivalo airport (cont.) EGNOS monitoring stations Source: ESSP GPS PRNs 9, 16, 19, 23 Not monitored by EGNOS because the are on the border of EGNOS coverage, not reached by enough monitoring stations Kuusamo Source: Finavia

27 Outline Defining the Arctic Navigation requirements in the Arctic Challenges in the Arctic Possible solutions Conclusions

28 Possible solutions - ionosphere modeling and monitoring Single-frequency use of GNSS will be dominating still the next 10 years or so in civilian maritime and aviation Improving ionosphere time/spatial variability models Combination of various types of observations of the ionosphere Multi-frequency GNSS in the future to compensate for the ionosphere L1 and L5 Source: Pixabay

29 Possible solutions GNSS augmentation and integrity Corrections through MEO constellation Extensive ground monitoring still needed IALA (International Association of Lighthouse Authorities) differential GNSS beacons Limited range and difficulties with maintenance Polar orbiting satellites or others Expensive (billions of ) Long endurance UAVs Advanced Receiver Autonomous Integrity Monitoring (ARAIM) for integrity Source: Pixabay

30 Possible solutions - ice-aware routing Is it possible to create an algorithm that generates optimal maritime shipping routes, taking into account ice conditions and available ice breaker assistance? Photos by Tapio Nyman and the Canadian Coast Guard

31 What is needed for ice-aware routing? 1. Sea spatial model 2. Ship maneuverability model 3. Sea ice model Describes the sea ice conditions at given point in space and time 4. Ship performance model Describes how the ship performs as a function of ice conditions Also, takes into account possible ice breaker assistance 5. A cost function (A*)

32 Ice-aware maritime route optimization in the Baltic Sea (1) ice-breaker waypoints Helsinki * * * * Tallinn * * The Bay of Bothnia St. Petersburg Vessels beset in ice during winter 2011 Current route (AIS data) ARCSAT optimized route Source: Jakub Montewka, FGI Speed near open-water speed The Baltic Sea The Gulf of Finland

33 Ice-aware maritime route optimization in the Baltic Sea (2) ice-breaker waypoints Helsinki * * * * Tallinn * * St. Petersburg Current route (AIS data) ARCSAT optimized route Speed near open-water speed

34 Possible solutions - Ice navigation support system Earth Observations Cosmo-SkyMed Radarsat NOAA Modis Sentinel-1 V O R I C Other data sources: AIS, ice breaker (IB) waypoints * Observations * Engine power * User needs Environmental and ship models Data collecting Ice drift, ice thickness, ice charts, iceberg monitoring Route optimisation Ship parameters Data delivery (internal, external) * Oceanographic and weather observations forecasts, and analyses * Route suggestions Icebreakers Merchant vessels Bridge integrators Authorities Ice service Logistics and port operators

35 Possible solutions - Crowdsourcing Enhanced Situational Awareness to Improve Maritime Safety in the Baltic (ESABALT) Common software platform for the crowdsourcing of maritime information for the benefit of all maritime stakeholders

36 Possible solutions - Crowdsourcing Enhanced Situational Awareness to Improve Maritime Safety in the Baltic (ESABALT) Common software platform for the crowdsourcing of maritime information for the benefit of all maritime stakeholders

37 FGI s projects related to the Arctic ARCSAT: Arctic Real-Time Satellite Services for the Public and Commercial End-Use Ice aware navigation for the Arctic sea ESABALT: Enhanced Situational Awareness to Improve Maritime Safety in the Baltic STORMWINDS: Strategic and Operational Risk Management for Wintertime Maritime Transportation System VORIC: Vessel Operations and Routing in Ice Conditions FEGNOS: Finland s EGNOS Monitoring and Performance Evaluation

38 Outline Defining the Arctic Navigation requirements in the Arctic Challenges in the Arctic Possible solutions Conclusions

39 Conclusions and recommendations (1) Arctic rush North-East and North-West passages are being probed as commercial sea routes Mining, oil and natural gas extraction industries are moving ever northwards Research stations have sprung up in the Arctic territories of almost every Northern country Governments have started to invest in policies for protection and sustainable development of the fragile Arctic environment Wintertime marine highway, Finnish Transport Agency

40 Conclusions and recommendations (2) The challenges include presence of ice and snow coverage of GNSS constellations and satellite- or land-based augmentation systems is not optimal access to radio navigation (other than GNSS) and communications is limited atmospheric modelling is not well-understood lack of maps and sea charts Source: Finnish Transport Agency The challenge is to attain similar levels of navigation performance and reliability possible via traditional technologies at lower latitudes

41 Conclusions and recommendations (3) What is needed: Cross-nation cross-sector cooperation Geodata infrastructure as the common platform for all Arctic stakeholders Maps and sea charts Communication technologies Denser GNSS observation and improved GNSS augmentation channels Organized crowdsourcing of information Knowledge from the Baltic will be useful to be transferred to the Arctic Ice models, traffic data, ship performance, route optimization, oil combating Source: National Land Survey, Finland Source: GSA Source: Finnish Transport Agency

42 ENC European Navigation Conference 2016 Helsinki Finlandia Hall Helsinki, Finland, 30 th May 2nd June 2016 IMPORTANT DEADLINES Full-paper submission: 15 th February, 2016 (full-paper-review track) Abstract Submission: 15 th February, 2016 (abstract-review track) Acceptance Notification: 31 th March, 2016 Early Registration: 15 th April, 2016

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