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Transcription

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3 ,,$ This research project explores the impact of replacing Arbitron s standard diary audience estimates with PPM SM test data in actual radio schedules purchased by Harmelin Media in Philadelphia during that same PPM trial period. Questions To Be Answered: What is the impact of the PPM SM audience estimates on Reach and Frequency calculations? Does the impact vary by demographic, rating point level, schedule length? 3

4 - " How the Analysis Was Performed Evaluated a cross-section of buys (clients, demos, point levels) that aired during 4 th Quarter 2002 and were purchased off Spring 02 Philadelphia Radio Market Report (RMR) Utilized actual client schedules from Harmelin s STRATA VIEW media buying software Generated PPM SM audience estimates for stations/ dayparts from Arbitron s PPM SM Analysis Tool Program Compiled PPM SM average estimates based on exact same calendar dates as Spring 02 Philadelphia RMR 4

5 - " How the Analysis Was Performed (cont.) Input relevant PPM SM -based reach statistics (AQH, Cume) into existing STRATA VIEW schedules Replicated customized dayparts exactly (i.e. narrowed hours and days-of-week combinations) Reach & Frequency estimates were calculated using identical STRATA NuMath research and STRATA VIEW software 5

6 - " 6

7 # Schedule # 1 Target: Women Category: Retail Campaign: 13 Consecutive Weeks TRPs / Wk: Various (minimum 100+/wk) # Stations: 7 Day-of-Wk / Emphasis: End-of Week and Weekends 7

8 # %, *(/ " Schedule # 1 / Women Schedule # 1 / Women % 82.4% % 70% 62.8% TRPs / 1% 60% 50% Pts / 31% 40% 520 Diary TRPs - Avg. 4 Weeks PPM TRPs - Avg. 4 Weeks Avg. 4 Wk Reach % - Diary Avg. 4 Wk Reach % - PPM 8

9 # "/ 0 1 Schedule # 1 / Women Schedule # 1 / Women % 58.5% % 46.0% GRPs / 2% 40% Pts / 27% Diary TRPs - 1 Week PPM TRPs - 1 Week 30% 1 Week Reach % - Diary 1 Week Reach % - PPM 9

10 Schedule # 2 Target: Women Category: Retail Campaign: 5 Non-Consecutive Weeks TRPs / Wk: 200 or 150 # Stations: 8 Day-of-Wk / Emphasis: W-F and Weekends Decrease in TRPs with PPM SM estimates 10

11 # # "2/ 3 Schedule # 2 / Women Schedule # 2 / Women % 96.5% % 85.2% TRPs/ -3% Decrease % 70% Pts / 13% 850 Diary TRPs - Campaign PPM TRPs - Campaign Campaign Reach % - Diary Campaign Reach % - PPM 11

12 # "/ 0 4 Schedule # 2 / Women Schedule # 2 / Women % 72.2% % Diary TRPs - 1 Week -4.8 TRPs/ 2.5 % Decrease PPM TRPs - 1 Week 60% 50% 58.7% 1 Week Reach % - Diary Pts / 23% 1 Week Reach % - PPM 12

13 Schedule # 3 Demo Change Target: Adults Category: Automotive Campaign: 5 Consecutive Weeks TRPs / Wk: Approx. 240 # Stations: (flighted) Day-of-Wk / Emphasis: None 13

14 # # "2/ 3 Schedule # 3 / Adults Schedule # 3 / Adults % 99.4% % 85.8% TRPs / <1 % 80% Pts / 16% Diary TRPs - Campaign PPM TRPs - Campaign 70% Campaign Reach % - Diary Campaign Reach % - PPM 14

15 # "/ 0& Schedule # 3 / Adults Schedule # 3 / Adults % 83.7% TRPs / % 70% 60% 57.2% Pts / % 50% 46% 40% 230 Diary TRPs - 1 Week PPM TRPs - 1 Week 1 Week Reach % Diary 1 Week Reach % PPM 15

16 Schedule # 4 Younger Demo Target: Adults Category: Technology Campaign: 7 Consecutive Weeks TRPs / Wk: Approx. 200 # Stations: 9 Day-of-Wk / Emphasis: End-of Week Decrease in TRPs with PPM SM estimates 16

17 # %, *(/ "0' Schedule # 4 / Adults Schedule # 4 / Adults % 90% 89.4% Diary TRPs - Avg. 4 Weeks TRPs/ 12% Decrease PPM TRPs - Avg. 4 Weeks 80% 70% 60% 50% 72.4% Avg. 4 Wk Reach % Diary + 17 Pts / 23% Avg. 4 Wk Reach % PPM 17

18 # "/ 0' Schedule # 4 / Adults Schedule # 4 / Adults % 66.1% % 55.9% TRPs / 11 % Decrease 50% 40% Pts / 18% 150 Diary TRPs - 1 Week PPM TRPs - 1 Week 1 Week Reach % Diary 1 Week Reach % PPM 18

19 Schedule # 5 Fewer Stations & TRPs Target: Men Category: Communications Campaign: 3 Consecutive Weeks TRPs / Wk: Approx. 48 # Stations: 1 Day-of-Wk / Emphasis: End-of Week 19

20 # # "0& Schedule # 5 / Men Schedule # 5 / Men % 35% 39.0% % % TRPs/ 9% Diary TRPs - Campaign PPM TRPs - Campaign 20% 15% 10% 17.9% Campaign Reach % Diary Pts / 118% Campaign Reach % PPM 20

21 # "/ 0& Schedule # 5 / Men Schedule # 5 / Men TRPs / 7 % % 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% 14.1% Pts / 90% 26.8% Diary TRPs - 1 Wk PPM TRPs - 1 Wk 1 Wk Reach % Diary 1 Wk Reach % PPM 21

22 Schedule # 6 Single Day Flight Target: Men Category: Communications/Entertainment Campaign: 3 Non-Consecutive Days TRPs / Wk: Approx. 135 # Stations: 7 Day-of-Wk / Emphasis: Tuesday 22

23 # # "0 1 Schedule # 6 / Men Schedule # 6 / Men % 66.0% % 58.2% TRPs / 50% Pts / 340 8% Decrease 40% 13% Diary TRPs - Campaign PPM TRPs - Campaign 30% Campaign Reach % Diary Campaign Reach % PPM 23

24 # "01 Schedule # 6 / Men Schedule # 6 / Men % % 46.9% 52.3% TRPs/ 8 % Decrease % 30% Pts / 11.5% % Diary TRPs - 1 Day PPM TRPs - 1 Day 1 Day Reach % Diary 1 Day Reach % PPM 24

25 Schedule # 7 Ethnic Target Audience Target: African-American Adults Category: Communications/Entertainment Campaign: 2 Weeks (2 Days/Wk) TRPs / Wk: Approx. 230 # Stations: 3 Day-of-Wk / Emphasis: Wednesday-Thursday Survey: WI02-SP02 (Diary); SP02 PPM 25

26 # # "0 5 Schedule # 7 / AA Adults Schedule # 7 / AA Adults % % 91.0% TRPs / 10% Decrease Diary TRPs - Campaign PPM TRPs - Campaign 80% 70% 60% 73.7% Campaign Reach % Diary Pts / 23% Campaign Reach % PPM 26

27 # $2&/ 3"0 5 Schedule # 7 / AA Adults Schedule # 7 / AA Adults % % 81.6% TRPs / 5 % Decrease % 60% 64.4% Pts / 27% % Diary TRPs - 2 Days PPM TRPs - 2 Days 2 Day Reach % Diary 2 Day Reach % PPM 27

28 Campaign / Avg. 4 Week Target # Stations TRPs Diary TRPs PPM TRP Change % Rch Change Schedule # 1 Women % Schedule # 2 Women % Schedule # 3 Adults % Schedule # 4 Adults % Schedule # 5 Men % Schedule # 6 Men % Schedule # 7 AA Adults % 28

29 Target Campaign / Avg. 4 Week Rch % Rch % % Rch Diary PPM Change Freq. Diary Freq. PPM Schedule # 1 Women % 82.4% + 31% Schedule # 2 Women % 96.5% + 13% Schedule # 3 Adults % 99.4% + 16% Schedule # 4 Adults % 89.4% + 23% Schedule # 5 Men % 39.0% + 118% Schedule # 6 Men % 66.0% + 13% Schedule # 7 AA Adults % 91.0% + 23%

30 #" The change from diary to PPM SM based audience estimates in actual radio schedules produced a dramatic increase in calculated reach. The increase in reach was observed across all of the schedules and demographics that were examined. The higher reach was achieved even though schedules were not originally purchased on PPM SM based station or daypart strengths. There was no direct correlation between the percent increase in reach and the variables of TRPs, flight length, number of stations, or days-of-week aired. 30

31 #" As a function of the changes in reach and TRPs, the calculated frequency of every schedule was lower. We do not believe the changes in calculated reach are unique to the STRATA NuMath or View software. The more-sophisticated PPM SM audience estimates will require adjustments to reach and frequency models in existing media software (e.g. better station duplication estimates; reach accumulation over time). This preliminary analysis indicates that Radio can provide much higher reach levels than previously thought. 31