The Fiber Year 2016 World Survey on Textiles & Nonwovens

Transcription

1 Issue 16, May 2016 The Fiber Year 2016 World Survey on Textiles & Nonwovens CHF540.-

2 Foreword Andreas W. Engelhardt General Manager The Fiber Year GmbH Speicher, Switzerland Dear Readers, This textile yearbook is now the 16th edition thanks to the support of Lenzing Group. All market data, however, are result of the independent research by The Fiber Year GmbH. Thus, statements and conclusions in the report do not necessarily reflect the assessment of the Lenzing Group. A further essential part involves talks with industry experts in each and every segment to finally validate market size, trend of the market and prospective orientation. Inter-fiber competition is sufficiently known, thus, comprehensive coverage of the world fiber markets is a strategic benefit. Basic idea of reporting production data looks back on a much longer history. It has been initiated by former world market leader in manmade fibers, Vereinigte Glanzstoff-Fabriken AG. Dr. Vits, chairman of the board between 1940 and 1969, informed at press conferences about the status of the world manmade fiber industry. At a presentation on February 8, 1966 he expressed that this industry would enjoy dynamic growth. A truly appropriate evaluation as manmade fiber output back then was 5.5 million tonnes versus more than 65 million at present. Furthermore, the linkage to upstream raw material markets is instrumental to get an early indication about future surplus or deficit along the corresponding chain as conversion time of petrochemical projects is much longer and involves much higher investments as the erection of spinning lines and subsequent processing equipment. At this point we would like to express our gratitude to all who have made a valuable contribution by providing articles, supporting us in data collection and exchanging views. The target of this report is to deliver an objective survey on the world fiber and nonwovens industry, their latest trends and most current trade flows. Doubling trading activities by value since the beginning of the century necessitate an intense appraisal along the textile value chain as globalization further advances. Hence, the enlarged scope comprises data for major markets about the relation between available fiber material and volume for subsequent processing. We do hope this textile yearbook will be useful to conduct your business. This survey hopefully explains global industry trends, market developments and fiber competition in a way that future investment decisions may return to the principles of market economy. Yours sincerely, The broad scope of industries, markets and applications not only necessitates compiling as many official data as possible. It further requires reviewing the data received and making plausibility checks whenever advisable.

3 Summary World Fiber Production and Use The fiber production in the world textile industry in 2015 fell for the first time since 2008 by 0.7% to 94.9 million tonnes. This includes an increase of 5.8% in the manmade fiber sector to 66.8 million tonnes while natural fibers dropped 13.2% to 28.1 million tonnes, the steepest contraction since Processing of Fibers Staple fibers are precursor to spun yarn, increasingly used for nonwovens and unspun end-uses for mainly filling materials. The weakness in natural fibers has caused stagnation in spun yarn volumes in the past two years while filament yarns grew considerably faster than the market in six consecutive years. As a matter of common knowledge natural fibers production is not precisely projectable due to climatic and other natural imponderabilities. Hence, annual cotton production is quite often in no accordance with consumption. It needs to be adjusted while basically manmade fiber stocks are controlled to match demand. As global cotton stocks have been traced by international organizations like ICAC, consumption figures for cotton are included in a world-fiber-use figure. This data delivers a more accurate indication of the volumes for subsequent processing into weaving, knitting and nonwovens. Referring to this approach, last year s use of fibers accounted for 96.7 million tonnes, up 3.1%. This robust growth may surprise despite its third consecutive year of weakening from 5.6% growth in 2012 in the light of slowing world economy. On the other hand, it gives reason to question a manmade fiber production according to market needs. In the absence of global statistics although desirable it seems impossible to approach this issue via an educated guess due to the variety of applications. However, the small-scale market for acetate tow provides an informative basis as this fiber is highly correlated to one homogeneous product, namely cigarette filters. The fiber output depressed from destocking fell much stronger than joint shipments of the main cigarette manufacturers. This basic thought was to comment the level of growth even if no official sources are visible for insights. Fiber Market Dynamics The world market has been unabatedly shifting toward manmade fibers, currently occupying a 69% share, with polyester fibers growing again faster than the market. Natural fibers, in contrast, declined in the fourth consecutive year. Cotton has decisively accounted for this slump after suffering from the most drastic contraction in forty years. Raw Material Industry Massive investments in polyester and nylon raw materials intensify competition and overcapacity at unprecedented size will trigger restructuring measures as already visible in PTA with yet unknown scale of decommissioning. Besides, higher self-sufficiency in PR China will largely replace imports. Trading Activities Further advancing globalization necessitates to take a look at trading activities that doubled by value since the beginning of the century. Latest data from 26 countries and EU for 2015 reveal a 5.3% decrease in exports at USD622 billion, which represents about 80% of world trade. From the ten largest exporting nations were only Bangladesh and Vietnam successful to lift their export value. Even PR China, the undisputed market leader has suffered from its first decline in six years. Vietnam, facing booming textile and apparel industry, marked new peaks in almost any category. Manmade fiber output has achieved a record high and Vietnam evolved into the world s largest cotton importer. Unsurprisingly, textile and garment exports enjoyed the world s fastest growth rate apart from emerging Myanmar at a much lower size. This boom is being supported by trade agreements for the most part. In case of the TPP agreement, requiring the yarn-forward rule of origin, it implies that the share of local content in finished products needs to be raised to fully tap the potential. As apparel production was so far largely relying on imported raw materials, it needs significant expansion of fiber and fabric capacities in not previously known dimension. In addition, adjustment of its sourcing policy appears necessary as well. This will in return put pressure on foreign, non-tpp industries which were significantly involved in supplying fibers and fabrics the local downstream industry still is short of.

4 Introduction of the New Term Fabric Making Potential The volume of textiles and apparel has continuously grown in recent decades. It went along with even stronger growth of trading activities that doubled by value since the beginning of the century. Hence, globalization necessitates a more intense appraisal along the textile value chain. That is the reason why a new term will be introduced. Fabric Making Potential is key figure to illustrate on national basis the relation between available fiber material and volume for subsequent processing. countries, known as Trans Pacific Partnership (TPP). It allows zero-tariff in garment trade within the TPP members as long as the yarn-forward rule is complied with that requires usage of yarns and fibers from TPP members exclusively. It will impact both Vietnam s sourcing policy and investments to expand local fiber capacity. A similar effect will result from the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP), under negotiation between the European Union and United States. Both trade agreements will comprise almost 1.4 billion consumers by Local natural fiber growing and manmade fiber manufacturing volumes are starting point to feed downstream operations. Corresponding trade flows of fibers and yarns will finally determine the size of downstream processing. Export surplus of fiber material, like for instance traditional for cotton grown in the United States, will reduce national processing volume. Vice versa, expanding foreign supplies allow an enlarged processing. For example, raw cotton and manmade staple fibers import quantities into Vietnam have been strongly scaled up in recent years. This has made it possible for Vietnam to lift exports of mainly apparel articles from about USD2 billion in the year 2000 to beyond USD25 billion in the previous year. A more detailed analysis of the structure of the trade flows by country further delivers decisive indicators about future need for action. Here come politics into play, namely the recently signed trade agreement between twelve Pacific Rim The parameter Fabric Making Potential further includes inventory changes of cotton provided by ICAC and estimates of appropriate manmade fiber stockpiling or destocking as global statistics are not available. This explains why adding up of the production and trade data do not necessarily give equivalent results. This key figure overviews straightaway upstream spinning and midstream fabric making stage. It shows whether the size fits with each other. Additionally, it reveals at a glance whether the development at the both stages has been parallel and at the same pace. The new service has been prepared for a number of countries with significant importance. It is part of the ninth chapter including twenty executive country profiles. PR China: Upstream Textile Chain - Fibers and Yarns million tonnes Production of Fibers & Yarns (Primary Spinning Stage) Plant & Animal Manmade TOTAL Trade Fibers Yarns Fabric Making Potential (including unspun end-uses) TOTAL

5 Contributions from Industry Experts: Peter Ackroyd President International Wool Textile Organisation (IWTO), Brussels, Belgium Dr. Christian Schindler Director General International Textile Manufacturers Federation (ITMF) Zurich, Switzerland Andreas Eule CEO Cordenka GmbH Obernburg, Germany Dr. Gunnar Seide Faculty of Humanities and Sciences Aachen-Maastricht Institute for Biobased Materials, Maastricht University, Maastricht, The Netherlands Lorena Ruiz Economist International Cotton Advisory Committee Washington, D.C., United States Sun Ruizhe Vice President China National Textile and Apparel Council (CNTAC) Beijing, PR China

6 Table of contents Page 1. Foreword and Summary Foreword Summary Introduction of the New Term Fabric Making Potential List of Sources Contributions from Industry Experts Top 10 Consuming Countries and Forecast to Upstream Feedstock Industry Cotton Cultivation Sheep Farming Dissolving Pulp Petrochemicals Paraxylene (PX) Purified Therephthalic Acid (PTA) Dimethyl Terephthalate (DMT) Mono Ethylene Glycol (MEG) Polyester Feedstocks Caprolactam (CPL) Comparison of Major Raw Material Prices Staple Fibers Natural Fibers Cotton Wool Other Fibers Cellulosic Fibers Viscose Fibers Acetate Tow Synthetic Staple Fibers Polyester Staple Fibers Acrylic Staple Fibers Polypropylene Staple Fibers Polyamide Staple Fibers.. 67

7 Page 5. Filament Yarns Polyester Filament Polyester Textile and Carpet Yarn Polyester Industrial Yarn Polyamide Filament Polyamide Textile and Carpet Yarn Polyamide Industrial Yarn Polypropylene Filament Cellulosic Filament Other Manmade Fibers Carbon Fibers Aramid Fibers Spandex Fibers World Fiber Market Revisions for Fiber Production 2015 vs Production versus Consumption World Fiber Market Manmade Fibers and Filaments Filament and Spun Yarn Nonwovens and Unspun Applications Spunlaid Carded Airlaid Wetlaid. 113

8 Page 9. Major Countries and Regions in Textiles and Clothing Business PR China India Bangladesh Turkey Vietnam Pakistan Taiwan Indonesia Cambodia Malaysia Sri Lanka Thailand South Korea Myanmar Brazil Mexico Russia Japan European Union EU(28) United States Statistical Appendix World Fiber Market I World Fiber Market II World Fiber Use Natural Fibers Consumption Cotton Production and Use Staple Fibers Consumption Production of Manmade Fibers Production of Synthetic Fibers Production of Cellulosic Fibers Major Fiber Types' Market Share. 181

9 Page Staple Fiber Competition Main Staple Fiber Production Production of Manmade Fibers by Major Country Production of Manmade Fibers by Material Top 3 Producing Countries Polyester Fiber Industry 2013/ Polyamide Filament Industry 2013/ Manmade Staple Fiber Industry 2013/ Global Yarn Production Dynamics in Yarn Production Fiber Types in Spun Yarn Production History of Yarn Production Filament Yarn Production by End-Use Major Textile & Clothing Trading Countries - Americas Major Textile & Clothing Trading Countries - Europe Major Textile & Clothing Trading Countries - Asia & ROW Major Exporters in Textiles & Clothing Major Importers in Textiles & Clothing Trade Balances in Textiles & Clothing Investments from Car Manufacturers Tire Projects.. 201