3Q16 UNITED STATES. CAPITAL MARKETS REPORT For the Intelligent Investor

Transcription

1 3Q16 UNITED STATES CAPITAL MARKETS REPORT For the Intelligent Investor

2 3Q16 UNITED STATES CAPITAL MARKETS REPORT 3 Market Summary 18 Analysis by Asset Type 4 Executive Overview 5 Employment and Labor Markets 6 Yield Spread 7 Global Capital 8 Total Sales Volume - Major Metropolitan Cities 9 Buyer Distribution 10 Top Regional Buyers 11 International Capital Distribution - United States 12 International Capital Investment - United States 13 Origin of Capital 14 Debt Market Update 15 Investment Activity Index - Overall Rankings 16 Investment Activity Index - Top 10 Cities 17 Investment Activity Index - Ranking Matrix 19 Most Active Buyers by Asset Type 20 Office Pricing Heat Map 21 Office Trends - Average Price Per Square Foot 22 Office Trends - Average Cap Rates 23 Multihousing Trends - Primary vs. Secondary Markets 24 Multihousing Trends - Primary Market Pricing Matrix 25 Multihousing CMBS Origination Volume 26 Retail Trends - Primary vs. Secondary Markets 27 Retail Volume by Type 28 Hospitality Trends 29 Industrial Trends 30 Development Site Trends 2

3 MARKET SUMMARY

4 EXECUTIVE OVERVIEW Sales Volume Year-to-date sales volume is 14% below 2015 levels, but remains on pace to be the third highest yearly total of the past decade. Cap Rates Cap rates have fluctuated within a tight range over the past few quarters, however some markets are beginning to experience incremental expansion. Rent Growth Multihousing rent growth has slowed in primary metros such as New York and San Francisco, while emerging secondary markets continue to show resilient fundamentals. Supply and Demand Investors continue to be focused on value-add properties, however demand is currently strongest for quality office assets located in the western United States. International Capital Yields remain an attractive option for international capital, which has invested $45 billion into United States commercial real estate year-to-date. Debt Markets Regional and local banks have helped to fill the void left by the CMBS market, where issuance is down 36% year-over-year. 4

5 EMPLOYMENT AND LABOR MARKETS Total Employment vs. Average Household Income Since 2011, household income has outpaced employment by 60 basis points per year due to growth of highly-skilled workers. 100,000,000 $200,000 $175,000 80,000,000 $150,000 $125,000 60,000,000 $100,000 $75,000 40,000,000 $50,000 Total Employment Average Household Income * forecasted data Source: New mark Grubb Knight Frank Research, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, REIS 5

6 CAP RATE SPREAD (BPS) YIELD SPREAD 3Q16 represented the largest spread between cap rates and the 10-year treasury rate in nearly four years. 10% 500 8% 400 6% 300 4% 200 2% 100 0% Yield Spread Cap Rates - All Property Types 10-Year Treasury Rate Source: New mark Grubb Knight Frank Research, Real Capital Analytics, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 6

7 GLOBAL CAPITAL All Property Types; 12-Month Totals BERLIN $5.6B GERMANY $16.8B LOS ANGELES $5.7B CANADA $42.3B U.S. $57.9B NYC $24.5B LONDON $26.0B UNITED KINGDOM $20.8B MADRID $5.6B PARIS $7.1B QATAR $9.4B CHINA $28.4B HONG KONG $36.6B SHANGHAI $6.7B SOUTH KOREA $9.1B SINGAPORE $19.6B SINGAPORE $4.7B TOP CAPITAL SOURCES TOP CAPITAL DESTINATIONS SYDNEY $7.5B UNITED STATES $57.9B LONDON $26.0B CANADA $42.3B NEW YORK CITY $24.5B HONG KONG $36.6B SYDNEY $7.5B CHINA $28.4B PARIS $7.1B UNITED KINGDOM $20.8B SHANGAHI $6.7B SINGAPORE $19.6B LOS ANGELES $5.7B GERMANY $16.8B MADRID $5.6B QATAR $9.4B BERLIN $5.6B SOUTH KOREA $9.1B SINGAPORE $4.7B 7

8 Manhattan Los Angeles Chicago DC Metro Boston Dallas Atlanta Seattle San Francisco *NYC Boroughs Denver Phoenix Northern NJ San Jose San Diego Houston Miami Orange County East Bay Austin $6.0 $5.0 $5.0 $7.6 $6.9 $6.7 $6.4 $5.4 $7.5 $7.3 $12.7 $11.1 $10.6 $10.6 $9.9 $9.0 $9.0 $7.9 $9.3 $8.2 $7.6 $6.6 $7.1 $6.3 $5.8 $12.9 $12.5 $13.5 $12.3 $11.3 $11.4 $10.6 $9.4 $9.4 $15.3 $15.5 $20.2 $20.0 Billions $32.6 $38.5 TOTAL SALES VOLUME Major Metropolitan Cities; Year-to-Date; All Property Types Total sales volume in the United States is 14% lower than one year ago, with declining activity in 16 of the top 20 markets. $40 New York City = $41.6 Billion $30 Bay Area = $23.2 Billion $20 $10 $0 1Q-3Q Q-3Q 2015 * Includes Brookly n, Queens, Bronx and Staten Island Source: New mark Grubb Knight Frank Research, Real Capital Analytics 8

9 BUYER DISTRIBUTION United States; by Year and Market Tier International capital continues to prefer gateway markets, while private investors have been the most aggressive buyers overall. 100% 80% 60% 10.1% 11.4% 10.5% 6.7% 6.1% 5.7% 29.4% 24.8% 25.0% 17.8% 4.8% 25.9% 13.0% 6.3% 27.7% 100% 80% 60% 19.4% 6.2% 29.3% 8.0% 9.5% 5.5% 9.2% 29.6% 16.5% 40% 39.5% 39.3% 43.1% 40.4% 46.0% 40% 39.5% 49.9% 54.2% 20% 20% 0% 18.4% 14.3% 15.7% 11.1% 7.0% YTD 0% 5.6% 7.0% 10.6% Primary Secondary Tertiary Public/REITs Private Institutional User/Other International Public/REITs Private Institutional User/Other International Source: New mark Grubb Knight Frank Research, Real Capital Analytics 9

10 TOP REGIONAL BUYERS All Property Types; 12-Month Totals Blackstone continues to be one of the top five investors in each region following several portfolio and entity-level acquisitions. West Southwest Midwest Southeast Mid-Atlantic Northeast Company Volume Company Volume Company Volume Company Volume Company Volume Company Volume Blackstone $8.1B Blackstone $2.5B DRA Advisors $2.2B Starw ood Capital Group $3.9B Lone Star $4.5B Blackstone $9.9B TIAA $2.8B Starw ood Capital Group $2.2B PGIM Real Estate $2.0B Blackstone $1.7B Blackstone $2.3B Ivanhoe Cambridge $6.5B Qatar Investment Authority $2.1B GIC $1.8B Blackstone $1.3B GIC $1.5B MGM Resorts $900M Qatar Investment Authority $3.8B Invesco $2.0B China Life Insurance $1.1B ADIA $864M CPP Investment Board $1.2B UDR $900M RXR Realty $2.8B Douglas Emmett $1.7B CPP Investment Board $1.0B PSP Investments $859M PSP Investments $1.1B China Life Insurance $799M Lone Star $2.7B Source: New mark Grubb Knight Frank Research, Real Capital Analytics 10

11 INTERNATIONAL CAPITAL DISTRIBUTION United States; Year-to-Date; All Property Types Following several years as the top investor to the United States, Canada trails China in total capital investment in INVESTED CAPITAL $500+ MILLION Anbang Insurance Group Brookfield GIC (Government of Singapore) Allianz HKMA Union Investment Ivanhoe Cambridge China Canada Singapore Germany China Germany Canada $1 B+ China Investment Corp Qatar Investment Authority Jamestown China Oceanwide Holdings Unizo Mirae Asset Norges Bank Chelsfield Olyan Group CPP Investment Board Global Holdings HNA Group Fimalac Investcorp China Qatar Germany China Japan South Korea Norway United Kingdom Saudi Arabia Canada Israel China France Bahrain $500 M - $999 M International Investment Source: New mark Grubb Knight Frank Research, Real Capital Analytics 11

12 INTERNATIONAL CAPITAL INVESTMENT United States; Year-to-Date; All Property Types Foreign capital remains predominately focused on gateway cities, but GIC (Singapore) has emerged as a major player investing across tertiary markets. Origin of Capital Top Five Countries by Year RANK YTD VOLUME (B) 1 China $13.0 Seattle 2.3% Boston 3.1% New York City 27.2% 2 Canada $ Germany $ South Korea $ Singapore $2.52 Global Total $45.7 B San Jose/ San Francisco 9.3% Los Angeles 5.2% San Diego 3.0% Phoenix 2.2% Austin 1.6% Dallas 2.4% Chicago 5.9% Atlanta 1.6% D.C. Metro 5.8% Miami 2.6% RANK 2015 $81.5 B 2014 $47.4 B 2013 $37.5 B 1 Canada Canada Canada 2 Singapore China China 3 China Norw ay Singapore 4 Norw ay Japan Israel 5 UAE Germany Germany RANK 2012 $27.9 B 2011 $24.6 B 2010 $12.3 B 1 Canada Canada Canada 2 Germany Sw itzerland Israel 3 Sw itzerland Germany UK Other U.S. Cities 27.8% 4 UK Israel China 5 Israel South Korea Germany Source: New mark Grubb Knight Frank Research, Real Capital Analytics 12

13 ORIGIN OF CAPITAL United States; Year-to-Date; All Property Types High-quality office and hotel properties in gateway markets continue to be the most sought after asset types among international capital. Manhattan 62.0% 38.0% San Francisco 63.0% 37.0% Washington, DC 79.0% 21.0% Chicago 79.0% 21.0% Boston 87.0% 13.0% Los Angeles 88.0% 12.0% Seattle 89.0% 11.0% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Domestic International Source: New mark Grubb Knight Frank Research, Real Capital Analytics 13

14 Billions DEBT MARKET UPDATE CMBS Issuance; Mortgage Debt Outstanding; Lender Composition Total debt outstanding rose to $2.9 trillion, while lenders such as regional and local banks have helped fill the void left by CMBS. $250 $200 $198 $229 CMBS Issuance Mortgage Debt Outstanding Others 13.2% Agency & GSE 16.8% Life Insurance 14.0% CMBS 16.7% Banks 39.3% $150 Lender Composition $100 $86 $94 $101 YTD issuance is down 36% from $77 B over the same time period last year. Private/Other International Bank Financial CMBS $50 $33 $48 $49 Life Insurance Government Agency $0 $12 $3 $ YTD Nat'l Bank Regional/Local Bank 0% 10% 20% 30% Source: New mark Grubb Knight Frank Research, Mortgage Bankers Association, Real Capital Analytics 14

15 INVESTMENT ACTIVITY INDEX United States Overall Rankings Current Conditions The expansion of cities such as Austin, Denver, Raleigh, Portland and Nashville, both in terms of population and employment, has made those markets more viable from an investment perspective. Dallas has been particularly impressive, finishing 3Q with the most new housing units, the highest office and retail absorption and sales volume trailing only New York and Los Angeles. Metros on the periphery of gateway cities, such as Orange County and East Bay are benefitting from their location by offering similar amenities just outside of saturated core markets. RANK CITY RANK CITY RANK CITY RANK CITY 1 New York City 11 San Diego 21 Las Vegas 31 Westchester/Fairfield 2 San Francisco 12 San Jose 22 Atlanta 32 Baltimore 3 Los Angeles 13 Austin 23 Houston 33 Salt Lake City 4 Boston 14 North/East Bay 24 Orlando 34 San Antonio 5 Seattle 15 Northern New Jersey 25 Sacramento 35 Detroit 6 Washington, DC 16 Portland 26 Tampa/St. Petersburg 36 Tucson 7 Miami 17 Denver 27 Charlotte 37 Pittsburgh 8 Chicago 18 Nashville 28 Raleigh/Durham 38 Kansas City 9 Dallas 19 Phoenix 29 Inland Empire 39 Minneapolis/St. Paul 10 Orange County 20 Philadelphia 30 Honolulu/Hawaii 40 New Orleans Source: New mark Grubb Knight Frank Research, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S. Census Bureau, Real Capital Analytics, Costar, National Association of Realtors 15

16 INVESTMENT ACTIVITY INDEX Top 10 Cities by Metric Investment Sales Volume (12-Month) Rank Billions New York City 1 $52.3 Los Angeles 2 $28.4 Dallas 3 $20.6 Washington, DC 4 $20.5 Chicago 5 $20.0 Boston 6 $18.3 Atlanta 7 $15.6 Seattle 8 $13.5 San Francisco 9 $13.4 Denver 10 $12.3 Office SF Under Construction Rank MSF New York City Dallas/Fort Worth Washington, DC San Jose Seattle Chicago San Francisco Boston Atlanta Houston Median Home Price (YoY % Change) Rank % Detroit % Tampa % Portland % Orlando % Las Vegas % Sacramento % New Orleans % San Jose % San Francisco 9 9.5% Seattle % New Housing Units (YTD) Rank # of Units Dallas/Fort Worth K Houston K Atlanta K Phoenix K Washington, DC K Seattle K Austin K Orlando K Nashville K Charlotte K Multihousing Cap Rates Rank Cap New York City 1 3.6% San Jose 2 4.2% Los Angeles 3 4.3% Northern New Jersey 4 4.5% Boston 4 4.5% San Diego 4 4.5% San Francisco 7 4.6% Seattle 8 4.7% Orange County, CA 8 4.7% Sacramento 8 4.7% Retail Absorption (YTD) Rank MSF Dallas/Fort Worth Chicago Houston Boston San Antonio Detroit Philadelphia Tampa Los Angeles Phoenix Office Absorption (3Q) Rank MSF Dallas/Fort Worth Salt Lake City Northern New Jersey Seattle Los Angeles 5.68 Phoenix 6.65 Chicago 7.54 Detroit 8.46 Orange County, CA 8.46 Philadelphia Office Cap Rates Rank Cap New York City 1 4.3% San Francisco 1 4.3% Boston 3 4.7% Seattle 4 4.9% Washington, DC 4 4.9% Los Angeles 6 5.0% San Jose 7 5.1% Orange County, CA 8 5.3% Denver 8 5.3% Miami 8 5.3% Hotel Cap Rates Rank Cap New York City 1 4.9% Honolulu 2 5.0% Las Vegas 3 6.0% Washington, DC 4 6.1% Miami 5 6.3% Boston 6 6.6% Chicago 7 6.8% San Francisco 8 6.9% Seattle 9 7.0% Los Angeles 9 7.0% Retail Cap Rates Rank Cap New York City 1 4.0% Miami 2 4.3% San Francisco 3 4.4% North/East Bay 4 4.8% San Diego 4 4.8% Orange County, CA 6 4.9% Washington, DC 7 5.0% Northern New Jersey 7 5.0% Boston 9 5.1% Austin 9 5.1% Retail Rents Rank $ New York City 1 $87.95 San Francisco 2 $39.97 Honolulu 3 $33.93 Miami 4 $32.14 San Jose 5 $30.42 North/East Bay 6 $30.23 Los Angeles 7 $28.17 Washington, DC 8 $26.70 Orange County, CA 9 $25.45 Westchester/Fairfield 10 $23.32 Office Rents Rank $ New York City 1 $76.74 San Francisco 2 $55.97 San Jose 3 $40.76 Los Angeles 4 $37.26 Washington, DC 5 $36.37 Boston 6 $34.96 Austin 7 $33.80 Miami 8 $33.68 Seattle 9 $32.04 San Diego 10 $31.25 Office $/SF Rank $/SF New York City 1 $1,033 San Francisco 2 $763 Boston 3 $688 San Jose 4 $604 Los Angeles 5 $593 Washington, DC 6 $558 Seattle 7 $504 Miami 8 $402 North/East Bay 9 $395 Austin 10 $379 Hotel $/Unit Rank $/Room New York City 1 $574K Boston 2 $505K San Francisco 3 $495K Miami 4 $486K Washington, DC 5 $452K San Jose 6 $373K North/East Bay 7 $372K Seattle 8 $338K San Diego 9 $299K Nashville 10 $296K Retail $/SF Rank $/SF New York City 1 $3,334 Miami 2 $1,464 San Francisco 3 $1,391 Washington, DC 4 $1,089 Honolulu 5 $845 Los Angeles 6 $835 New Orleans 7 $719 North/East Bay 8 $662 Boston 9 $654 Orange County, CA 10 $563 Source: New mark Grubb Knight Frank Research, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S. Census Bureau, Real Capital Analytics, Costar, National Association of Realtors 16

17 INVESTMENT ACTIVITY INDEX Ranking Matrix Manhattan 1 San Francisco 2 Los Angeles 3 Boston 4 Seattle 5 Washington, DC 6 Miami 7 Chicago 8 Dallas 9 Orange County, CA 10 San Diego 11 San Jose 12 Austin 13 North/East Bay 14 Northern New Jersey 15 Portland, OR 16 Denver 17 Nashville 18 Phoenix 19 Philadelphia 20 Las Vegas 21 Atlanta 22 Houston 23 Orlando 24 Sacramento 25 Tampa/St. Petersburg 26 Charlotte 27 Raleigh/Durham 28 Inland Empire 29 Honolulu 30 Westchester/Fairfield 31 Baltimore 32 Salt Lake City 33 San Antonio 34 Detroit 35 Tucson 36 Pittsburgh 37 Kansas City 38 Minneapolis/St. Paul 39 New Orleans 40 Rank Property Type Sales (All) Office Caps Office $/SF Retail Caps Retail $/SF Hotel Caps Hotel $/Unit Multihousing Caps Office U/C SF Office Absorption Retail Absorption Source: New mark Grubb Knight Frank Research, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S. Census Bureau, Real Capital Analytics, Costar, National Association of Realtors Home Sale % Change New Housing Units RANKED CITY #1-10 RANKED CITY #11-20 RANKED CITY #21-30 RANKED CITY #31-40 Office Rents Retail Rents 17

18 ANALYSIS BY ASSET TYPE

19 MULTIHOUSING INDUSTRIAL OFFICE HOSPITALITY RETAIL MOST ACTIVE BUYERS BY ASSET TYPE 12-Month Totals $8.2 B $4.56 B $5.2 B $7.9 B $4.55 B $6.8 B $3.6 B $4.7 B $2.9 B $6.6 B $2.9 B $2.6 B $5.7 B $1.8 B $3.4 B $3.1 B $2.4 B $2.1 B $1.2 B $1.2 B $900 M $802 M $2.3 B $2.2 B $1.7 B Blackstone Global Logistic Properties Qatar Investment Authority Blackstone Brookfield Lone Star China Life Insurance Blackstone Marriott Blackstone Starwood Capital Group Ivanhoe Cambridge Harrison Street RE Capital CPP Investment Board Blackstone ADIA JP Morgan RXR Realty Norges Mirae Asset Financial MGM Resorts Carey Watermark PGIM Real Estate DRA Advisors Invesco Source: New mark Grubb Knight Frank Research, Real Capital Analytics 19

20 PRICING HEAT MAP OFFICE Price Per Square Foot There are currently 31 markets averaging more than $200 per square foot for institutional quality office buildings. Greater than $400 $301-$400 $201-$300 $200 and below Office sales in eight United States metropolitan markets currently average more than $400 PSF: New York City, San Francisco, San Jose, Los Angeles, Boston, Washington, DC, Miami and Seattle. California has seven markets averaging at least $200 per square foot for office buildings: San Francisco, San Jose, Los Angeles, Orange County, Inland Empire, San Diego and East/North Bay. Source: New mark Grubb Knight Frank Research, Real Capital Analytics 20

21 Manhattan San Francisco Boston San Jose Los Angeles Washington, DC Seattle Miami Austin Orange County Denver United States Portland San Diego Charlotte Chicago Houston $402 $379 $376 $336 $324 $312 $309 $288 $268 $267 $504 $604 $593 $558 $688 $763 $1,033 OFFICE TRENDS Average Price Per Square Foot; Institutional Quality Per square foot pricing in top markets held steady during the third quarter despite a modest pullback in the overall U.S. average. $400 $1,200 $350 $314 $324 $900 $300 $600 $250 [10-Year Average = $280 PSF] $300 $200 $186 $ $0 United States 10-Year Average Source: New mark Grubb Knight Frank Research, Real Capital Analytics 21

22 Manhattan San Francisco Boston Washington, DC Seattle Los Angeles San Jose Miami Orange County San Diego Denver United States Charlotte Atlanta Austin Chicago 4.3% 4.3% 4.7% 4.9% 4.9% 5.0% 5.1% 5.3% 5.3% 5.5% 5.5% 5.6% 5.8% 5.9% 6.0% 6.0% OFFICE TRENDS Average Cap Rate; Institutional Quality Average cap rates in the United States have fluctuated within a tight range over the past three quarters. 8% 6% 7.6% 7% 4% 6% [10-Year Average = 5.8%] 5.6% 2% 5% 5.0% 4% % United States 10-Year Average Source: New mark Grubb Knight Frank Research, Real Capital Analytics 22

23 MULTIHOUSING TRENDS United States: Primary Markets vs. Secondary Markets Cap rates continued to compress in the six major metros, while yields in the non-major metros remained steady. Cap Rates Price Per Unit 8% $375,000 7% $300,000 $295K 6% $225,000 5% 5.3% $150,000 $145K 4.4% 4% $75,000 3% $ Primary Markets Secondary Markets Primary Markets Secondary Markets Source: New mark Grubb Knight Frank Research, Real Capital Analytics 23

24 Price Per Unit MULTIHOUSING TRENDS Primary Market Pricing Matrix Price per unit is down year-over-year in Manhattan, Boston and Chicago, while cap rates remain minimally changed. $600,000 San Francisco 3Q16 $450,000 Manhattan Manhattan San Francisco 3Q15 Washington, DC $300,000 $150,000 Boston Boston Los Angeles Los Angeles Chicago Washington, DC Chicago $0 3.0% 3.5% 4.0% 4.5% 5.0% 5.5% 6.0% Cap Rate Source: New mark Grubb Knight Frank Research, Real Capital Analytics 24

25 MULTIHOUSING CMBS ORIGINATION VOLUME Top 20 Markets; 2016 Year-to-Date CMBS origination volume has been heavily directed toward top tier secondary markets such as Denver, Dallas, Houston and Atlanta. SEATTLE $366.8 M PORTLAND $281.2 M NEW YORK $848.6 M SAN FRANCISCO $864.4 M LAS VEGAS $457.1 M INLAND EMPIRE $393.2 M DENVER $1.2 B CHICAGO $588.4 M NASHVILLE $292.1 M CHARLOTTE $291.4 M WASHINGTON DC $681.1 M LOS ANGELES $1.6 B SAN DIEGO $411.7 M PHOENIX $733.3 M DALLAS $1.4 B HOUSTON $1.2 B ATLANTA $1.0 B TAMPA $287.1 M ORLANDO $295.9 M MIAMI $460.7 M Greater than $1B $ M $ M Source: New mark Grubb Knight Frank Research, Trepp 25

26 RETAIL TRENDS United States: Primary Markets vs. Secondary Markets Year-over-year cap rates in the United States have expanded while pricing has begun to taper off, particularly in primary markets. Cap Rates Price Per Square Foot 9% $600 8% $500 7% $400 $445 6% 6.0% $ % $200 $204 5% $100 4% $ Primary Markets Secondary Markets Primary Markets Secondary Markets Source: New mark Grubb Knight Frank Research, Real Capital Analytics 26

27 Billions RETAIL TRENDS Volume by Type Despite a recent reduction in volume, the expansion of e-commerce into brick and mortar locations is expected to provide a boost in many U.S. markets. $60 $50 $40 $41.5 $36.5 $30 $20 $10 $14.4 $ Strip Mall Single Tenant Source: New mark Grubb Knight Frank Research, Real Capital Analytics 27

28 HOSPITALITY TRENDS United States RevPAR growth is slowing and supply is growing faster than demand, which indicates that the U.S. is nearing the peak of this cycle. $130 70% 10% $ $120 $ % 65% 5% 0% 2.8% $100 60% -5% $90-10% $80 55% -15% $ YTD ADR Occupancy 50% -20% YTD RevPAR Percentage Change *Data is annualized, 2016 is trailing 12 months as of August. Source: New mark Grubb Knight Frank Research, Smith Travel Research 28

29 Billions INDUSTRIAL TRENDS United States Despite a pullback in sales volume and a reduction of growth in price per square foot, demand remains well above long -term averages. Price Per Square Foot $80 Volume $250 $70 $70.3 $200 $188 $60 $56.0 $64.6 $50 $150 [10-Year Average = $42.9 B] $40 $100 $102 $30 $20 $50 $10 $15.3 $ $ Primary Markets Secondary Markets United States 10-Year Average Source: New mark Grubb Knight Frank Research, Real Capital Analytics, AAPA survey 29

30 Billions Billions DEVELOPMENT SITE TRENDS Sales Volume: Primary Markets vs. Secondary Markets Resistance to pricing as well as a healthy pipeline of development activity has led to a pullback in sales volume. $8 $4 $6 $3 $4 $2 $2 $1 $ $0 Primary Markets Secondary Markets Source: New mark Grubb Knight Frank Research, Real Capital Analytics 30

31 RESEARCH New York City HEADQUARTERS 125 Park Avenue New York, NY North America Canada United States Europe Austria Latin America Argentina Brazil Chile Colombia Costa Rica Africa Botswana Kenya Malawi Nigeria South Africa Jonathan Mazur Managing Director, Research Michael Wolfson Research Analyst - Multihousing Joshua Manning Research Analyst - Office & Industrial Jessica Greene Research Analyst - Retail Belgium Czech Republic France Germany Ireland Italy Netherlands Poland Portugal Romania Dominican Republic Mexico Peru Puerto Rico Asia-Pacific Australia Cambodia China Hong Kong Tanzania Uganda Zambia Zimbabwe Middle East Saudi Arabia United Arab Emirates Russia India Spain Indonesia Switzerland Japan United Kingdom Malaysia New Zealand Singapore South Korea Taiwan Thailand Newmark Grubb Knight Frank has implemented a proprietary database and our tracking methodology has been revised. W ith this expansion and refinement in our data, there may be adjustments in historical statistics including availability, asking rents, absorption and effective rents. Newmark Grubb Knight Frank Research Reports are also available at All information contained in this publication is derived from sources that are deemed to be reliable. However, Newmark Grubb Knight Frank (NGKF) has not verified any such information, and the same constitutes the statements and representations only of the source thereof, and not of NGKF. Any recipient of this publication should independently verify such information and all other information that may be material to any decision that recipient may make in response to this publication, and should consult with professionals of the recipient s choice with regard to all aspects of that decision, including its legal, financial, and tax aspects and implications. Any recipient of this publication may not, without the prior written approval of NGKF, distribute, disseminate, publish, transmit, copy, broadcast, upload, download, or in any other way reproduce this publication or any of the information it contains.