Markets, He Wrote. By: Anirban Basu Sage Policy Group, Inc. On Behalf of ACG Maryland Deal Forum May 23 rd, 2017

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1 Markets, He Wrote On Behalf of ACG Maryland Deal Forum 2017 By: Anirban Basu Sage Policy Group, Inc. May 23 rd, 2017

2 Macro P.I. (Just How Hairy is the Global Situation?) Photo: Flixter.com

3 Estimated Growth in Output by Select Global Areas 2017 Projected Advanced Economies Euro Area France Germany Italy Spain Japan (2) United Kingdom Canada Australia United States Emerging Market & Developing Economies Sub-Saharan Africa Emerging & Developing Europe Russia Emerging & Developing Asia China India (3) Middle East, North Africa, Afghanistan, & Pakistan Latin America & the Caribbean Mexico Brazil 2017 Proj. Global Output Growth: 3.5% Source: International Monetary Fund: World Economic Outlook Database, April % 1.7% 1.4% 1.6% 0.8% 2.6% 1.2% 2.0% 1.9% 3.1% 2.3% 4.5% 2.6% 3.0% 1.4% 2.6% 1.1% 1.7% 0.2% 6.4% 6.6% 7.2% -6.0% -4.0% -2.0% 0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% 8.0% 10.0% Annual % Change Notes: 1. Real effective exchange rates are assumed to remain constant at the levels prevailing during February 1 March 1, Economies are listed on the basis of economic size. The aggregated quarterly data are seasonally adjusted. 2. Japan s historical national accounts figures reflect a comprehensive revision by the national authorities, released in December The main revisions are the switch from the System of National Accounts 1993 to the System of National Accounts 2008 and the updating of the benchmark year from 2005 to For India, data and forecasts are presented on a fiscal year basis and GDP from 2011 onward is based on GDP at market prices with FY2011/12 as a base year.

4 International Population Dynamics, 16 Largest Nations Nation Population (Millions) Net Change % Change Nigeria % Ethiopia % Egypt % Pakistan % Philippines % India 1, , % Mexico % Bangladesh % Indonesia % United States % Vietnam % Brazil % China 1, , % Germany % Russian Federation % Japan % World 7.3 billion 9.7 billion 2.4 billion 32.3% Source: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2015). World Population Prospects: The 2015 Revision. *For statistical purposes, the data for China do not include Hong Kong and Macao, Special Administrative Regions (SAR) of China, and Taiwan Province of China.

5 Niamey Vice (Fertility Rates by Country, 2014) Rank* Source: World Bank, World Development Indicators Top 15 Bottom 15 Country Fertility Rate Rank* Country Fertility Rate 1 Niger Germany Somalia Italy Mali Malta Chad Hungary Angola Slovak Republic Congo, Dem. Rep Greece Burundi Poland Uganda Spain Gambia, The Bosnia and Herzegovina Nigeria Moldova Burkina Faso Singapore Mozambique Macao SAR, China Zambia Hong Kong SAR, China Tanzania Portugal Malawi Korea, Rep *Rank among 200 countries for which data are available for the most recent year (2014) **Total fertility rate represents the number of children that would be born to a woman if she were to live to the end of her childbearing years and bear children in accordance with age-specific fertility rates of the specified year.

6 Global Debt to Exacerbate Slow Growth? According to the IMF, global debt reached an all-time high in 2015; At $152 trillion, global gross debt of the nonfinancial sector now represents 225% of global GDP; About 2/3 of this debt is in the private sector; Current low nominal-growth environment is making adjustment difficult, setting the stage for a vicious feedback loop in which lower growth hampers deleveraging and the debt overhang exacerbates the slowdown. 2 Sources: 1. International Monetary Fund. October World Economic Outlook: Subdued Demand: Symptoms and Remedies. 2. International Monetary Fund (IMF). October Fiscal Monitor: Debt Use It Wisely. Note: The nonfinancial sector comprises the general government, nonfinancial firms, and households. Gross debt represents the unconsolidated liabilities of the three.

7 Apr-01 Aug-01 Dec-01 Apr-02 Aug-02 Dec-02 Apr-03 Aug-03 Dec-03 Apr-04 Aug-04 Dec-04 Apr-05 Aug-05 Dec-05 Apr-06 Aug-06 Dec-06 Apr-07 Aug-07 Dec-07 Apr-08 Aug-08 Dec-08 Apr-09 Aug-09 Dec-09 Apr-10 Aug-10 Dec-10 Apr-11 Aug-11 Dec-11 Apr-12 Aug-12 Dec-12 Apr-13 Aug-13 Dec-13 Apr-14 Aug-14 Dec-14 Apr-15 Aug-15 Dec-15 Apr-16 Aug-16 Dec-16 Apr-17 $/Barrel NYMEX Crude Oil Future Prices in U.S. Dollars April 2001 through April 2017 $140 $120 $100 April 2017: $51.12 /Barrel $80 $60 $40 $20 $0 Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration *Month of April = average of daily prices from 4/3-4/28

8 Apr-07 Aug-07 Dec-07 Apr-08 Aug-08 Dec-08 Apr-09 Aug-09 Dec-09 Apr-10 Aug-10 Dec-10 Apr-11 Aug-11 Dec-11 Apr-12 Aug-12 Dec-12 Apr-13 Aug-13 Dec-13 Apr-14 Aug-14 Dec-14 Apr-15 Aug-15 Dec-15 Apr-16 Aug-16 Dec-16 Apr =100 Metal Price Indices April 2007 through April Precious Metals 65 Base Metals 45 Iron Ore 25 Source: The World Bank US$ Nominal Base metals include aluminum, copper, lead, nickel, tin and zinc. Precious metals include gold, platinum, and silver.

9 May-09 Sep-09 Jan-10 May-10 Sep-10 Jan-11 May-11 Sep-11 Jan-12 May-12 Sep-12 Jan-13 May-13 Sep-13 Jan-14 May-14 Sep-14 Jan-15 May-15 Sep-15 Jan-16 May-16 Sep-16 Jan-17 May-17 Baltic Dry Index May 2009 through May ,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 May 19 th Jan. 4, 1985: 1,000 Source: Quandl.com The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) is a measure of the price of shipping major raw materials such as metals, grains, and fossil fuels by sea. The BDI is a composite of 3 sub-indices, each covering a different carrier size: Capesize, Panamax, and Supramax.

10 USA CSI (Commercial Situation Investigation) Photo: AMCNetworks.com

11 1990Q1 1990Q4 1991Q3 1992Q2 1993Q1 1993Q4 1994Q3 1995Q2 1996Q1 1996Q4 1997Q3 1998Q2 1999Q1 1999Q4 2000Q3 2001Q2 2002Q1 2002Q4 2003Q3 2004Q2 2005Q1 2005Q4 2006Q3 2007Q2 2008Q1 2008Q4 2009Q3 2010Q2 2011Q1 2011Q4 2012Q3 2013Q2 2014Q1 2014Q4 2015Q3 2016Q2 2017Q1 % Change from Preceding Period (SAAR) Gross Domestic Product 1990Q1 through 2017Q1* 8% 6% 2017Q1: +0.7% 4% 2% 0% -2% -4% -6% -8% -10% Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis *1 st (Advance) Estimate

12 Percent Change from Preceding Period (SAAR) SAAR (%) Contributions to GDP Growth by Component 2016Q2 2017Q1* Q2 2016Q3 2016Q4 2017Q GDP -3.0 Personal Consumption Government Spending Net Exports Gross Investment Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis *1 st (Advance) Estimate 2017Q1: +0.7%

13 Apr-02 Aug-02 Dec-02 Apr-03 Aug-03 Dec-03 Apr-04 Aug-04 Dec-04 Apr-05 Aug-05 Dec-05 Apr-06 Aug-06 Dec-06 Apr-07 Aug-07 Dec-07 Apr-08 Aug-08 Dec-08 Apr-09 Aug-09 Dec-09 Apr-10 Aug-10 Dec-10 Apr-11 Aug-11 Dec-11 Apr-12 Aug-12 Dec-12 Apr-13 Aug-13 Dec-13 Apr-14 Aug-14 Dec-14 Apr-15 Aug-15 Dec-15 Apr-16 Aug-16 Dec-16 Apr-17 Thousands Net Change in U.S. Jobs, BLS April 2002 through April April 2017: +211K Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

14 National Nonfarm Employment by Industry Sector April 2016 v. April 2017 Professional and Business Services Education and Health Services Leisure and Hospitality Trade, Transportation, and Utilities Government Financial Activities Construction Other Services Manufacturing Mining and Logging Information All told 2,237K jobs gained Thousands, SA Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

15 Apr-00 Oct-00 Apr-01 Oct-01 Apr-02 Oct-02 Apr-03 Oct-03 Apr-04 Oct-04 Apr-05 Oct-05 Apr-06 Oct-06 Apr-07 Oct-07 Apr-08 Oct-08 Apr-09 Oct-09 Apr-10 Oct-10 Apr-11 Oct-11 Apr-12 Oct-12 Apr-13 Oct-13 Apr-14 Oct-14 Apr-15 Oct-15 Apr-16 Oct-16 Apr-17 U.S. Employment to Population Ratio April 2000 April April 2017: 60.2% Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics Note: Civilian employment-population ratio, population 16 years and over, seasonally adjusted (SA).

16 Employment Growth, U.S. States (SA) April 2016 v. April 2017 Percent Change RANK STATE % RANK STATE % RANK STATE % 1 NEVADA MONTANA PENNSYLVANIA UTAH KENTUCKY VERMONT FLORIDA ARKANSAS OHIO GEORGIA CALIFORNIA DELAWARE IDAHO HAWAII MAINE WASHINGTON SOUTH CAROLINA DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA OREGON ALABAMA IOWA TEXAS MISSOURI ILLINOIS ARIZONA NEW JERSEY NORTH DAKOTA TENNESSEE WISCONSIN CONNECTICUT COLORADO NEW MEXICO MISSISSIPPI NEW HAMPSHIRE NORTH CAROLINA LOUISIANA SOUTH DAKOTA NEBRASKA KANSAS MARYLAND VIRGINIA OKLAHOMA MASSACHUSETTS INDIANA WEST VIRGINIA MICHIGAN NEW YORK WYOMING MINNESOTA RHODE ISLAND ALASKA -2.1 Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics U.S. Year-over-year Percent Change: +1.6%

17 Employment Growth, 24 Largest Metros (NSA) April 2016 v. April 2017 Percent Change Rank MSA % Rank MSA % 1 Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL MSA Boston-Cambridge-Nashua, MA-NH Metro NECTA 2 Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Roswell, GA MSA Portland-Vancouver-Hillsboro, OR-WA MSA Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA MSA Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX MSA Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, WA MSA Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI MSA Philadelphia-Camden-Wilmington, PA- NJ-DE-MD MSA Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX MSA 6 Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL MSA San Diego-Carlsbad, CA MSA Phoenix-Mesa-Scottsdale, AZ MSA Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV MSA 8 Charlotte-Concord-Gastonia, NC-SC MSA Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim, CA MSA Miami-Fort Lauderdale-West Palm Beach, FL MSA New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ- PA MSA 10 Denver-Aurora-Lakewood, CO MSA Baltimore-Columbia-Towson, MD MSA San Francisco-Oakland-Hayward, CA MSA St. Louis, MO-IL MSA Detroit-Warren-Dearborn, MI MSA Chicago-Naperville-Elgin, IL-IN-WI MSA Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Employment Statistics (CES) Survey

18 Unemployment Rates, 24 Largest Metros (NSA) March 2017 Rank MSA UR Rank MSA UR 1 Denver-Aurora-Lakewood, CO MSA Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim, CA MSA Boston-Cambridge-Nashua, MA-NH Metro NECTA San Diego-Carlsbad, CA MSA San Francisco-Oakland-Hayward, CA MSA Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX MSA Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC- VA-MD-WV MSA Charlotte-Concord-Gastonia, NC-SC MSA Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, WA MSA Baltimore-Columbia-Towson, MD MSA Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI MSA Chicago-Naperville-Elgin, IL-IN-WI MSA Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL MSA Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Roswell, GA MSA Portland-Vancouver-Hillsboro, OR-WA MSA St. Louis, MO-IL MSA (1) New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ- PA MSA Miami-Fort Lauderdale-West Palm Beach, FL MSA Philadelphia-Camden-Wilmington, PA- NJ-DE-MD MSA Detroit-Warren-Dearborn, MI MSA Phoenix-Mesa-Scottsdale, AZ MSA Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA MSA Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL MSA Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX MSA 5.7 Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics U.S. Unemployment Rate March: 4.5% April: 4.4% 1. Area boundaries do not reflect official OMB definitions.

19 21 Jump Street (And Other Addresses of Interest) Photo: TheMoveDatabase.org

20 National Nonresidential Construction Spending by Subsector, March 2016 v. March 2017 Communication Office Commercial Amusement and recreation Lodging Power Public safety Educational Health care Highway and street Conservation and development Religious Manufacturing Transportation Water supply Sewage and waste disposal -22.3% -1.4% -2.4% -4.2% -7.3% -9.7% -12.3% -13.9% 10.9% 9.2% 8.3% 4.9% 2.5% 1.0% 18.5% 15.7% Total Nonresidential Construction YOY: +$7.36B; +1.0% Source: U.S. Census Bureau -30% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 12-month % Change

21 Billions of $US Commercial/Multifamily Offshore Investment Sales Volumes Reach New Heights in 2015 $90 $80 $70 $76.2 $60 $50 $40 $30 $20 $10 $0 $45.0 $35.0 $30.1 $30.9 $26.8 $21.3 $19.0 $19.6 $12.5 $14.0 $8.5 $ Source: Jones Lang LaSalle; Real Capital Analytics Foreign Investment Increases Percent in 2015 to $76.2b Note: Among transactions larger than $5.0 million

22 Top Markets for Foreign Office Investment, 2015 Annual Foreign Office Investment Volume New York Washington, DC Boston Seattle Bellevue Chicago Miami Atlanta Los Angeles San Francisco Dallas/Fort Worth Silicon Valley Houston $2,323 $1,935 $1,184 $995 $709 $602 $515 $394 $347 $249 $172 $11,237 $0 $2,000 $4,000 $6,000 $8,000 $10,000 $12,000 Millions of $US Source: Jones Lang LaSalle; Real Capital Analytics

23 YTD Foreign Office Investment Activity, as of 2016Q3 18% 16% 14% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% Foreign Participation as a % of Total Office Volume 14.9% Foreign Office Investment by Destination Market (as a % of Total, 2016YTD) New York San Francisco Boston Washington, DC Dallas-Fort Worth Los Angeles Seattle-Bellevue Miami Northern New Jersey Chicago Atlanta Austin Philadelphia San Diego 8.4% 7.1% 6.8% 5.6% 4.8% 4.8% 2.8% 2.1% 1.9% 1.6% 1.4% 1.1% 1.1% 45.5% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% Source: Jones Lang LaSalle; Real Capital Analytics Note: Among transactions larger than $5.0 million; includes all office markets which received > 1.0% of offshore capital. Primary markets continue to capture the lion s share of inbound capital, receiving 78.2% of this capital YTD.

24 U.S. Mergers and Acquisitions, 2016 Average Value of M&A Announced in 2016: $106 million Smaller than 2015 average: $115.4 million Larger than the average: $77.1 million 5 Biggest Deals in AT&T and Time Warner: $85.4 billion 2. Bayer and Monsanto: $66 billion 3. British American Tobacco and Reynolds American: $58 billion 4. Sunoco Logistics and Energy Transfer Partners: $52 billion 5. Qualcomm and NXP Semiconductors: $47 billion Source: Fortune.com

25 Mergers and Acquisitions, 2017 In the first quarter of 2017: Total # of deals: -17.9% Overall deal value: +8.9% (to $678.5B) Average deal value: $403.4 million Clampdown on outgoing capital by the Chinese government decreased the number of Chinese buyers Value of Chinese deals down 86 percent compared to last year The erosion in barriers to entry and the slowdown in emerging markets is forcing struggling multinationals into finding new avenue of growth M&A is actually the quickest route sometimes easier than innovation and less risky than extreme cost cutting. Cedric Besnard, Consumer Equity Analyst at Citi High liquidity, access to cheap financing, healthy balance sheets and a need to demonstrate growth to shareholders via M&A all provide a positive outlook for Technology will drive M&A activity, with disruptive industries such as artificial intelligence, fintech and the internet of thing continuing to attract investor attention. Katharine Dennys, EMEA Research Editor, Mergermarket Source: CNBC.com

26 Down to The Wire Photo: RecapGuide.com

27 Sales Growth by Type of Business April 2016 v. April 2017* Gasoline Stations Internet, etc. Retailers Building Material & Garden Supplies Dealers Motor Vehicle & Parts Dealers Food Services & Drinking Places Furniture & Home Furn. Stores Food & Beverage Stores Miscellaneous Store Retailers Health & Personal Care Stores Electronics & Appliance Stores Clothing & Clothing Accessories Stores General Merchandise Stores Sporting Goods, Hobby, Book & Music Stores -2.4% -0.7% 0.7% 0.7% 0.5% 2.3% 1.8% 4.4% 3.9% 3.8% 9.3% 12.3% 11.9% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 12-month % change Source: U.S. Census Bureau *April 2017 advanced estimate Total Retail Sales: +4.5% YOY

28 Mar-05 Jul-05 Nov-05 Mar-06 Jul-06 Nov-06 Mar-07 Jul-07 Nov-07 Mar-08 Jul-08 Nov-08 Mar-09 Jul-09 Nov-09 Mar-10 Jul-10 Nov-10 Mar-11 Jul-11 Nov-11 Mar-12 Jul-12 Nov-12 Mar-13 Jul-13 Nov-13 Mar-14 Jul-14 Nov-14 Mar-15 Jul-15 Nov-15 Mar-16 Jul-16 Nov-16 Mar-17 Savings Rate (%) U.S. Saving Rate, March 2005 March 2017 (Savings as Percentage of Personal Disposable Income) March 2017: 5.9% Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis

29 2000Q1 2000Q3 2001Q1 2001Q3 2002Q1 2002Q3 2003Q1 2003Q3 2004Q1 2004Q3 2005Q1 2005Q3 2006Q1 2006Q3 2007Q1 2007Q3 2008Q1 2008Q3 2009Q1 2009Q3 2010Q1 2010Q3 2011Q1 2011Q3 2012Q1 2012Q3 2013Q1 2013Q3 2014Q1 2014Q3 2015Q1 2015Q3 2016Q1 2016Q3 2017Q1 U.S. Gross Private Domestic Investment (SAAR) % Change from Previous Quarter, 2000Q1 2017Q1* Q1: +4.3% Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis *1 st (Advance) Estimate

30 Aug-07 Dec-07 Apr-08 Aug-08 Dec-08 Apr-09 Aug-09 Dec-09 Apr-10 Aug-10 Dec-10 Apr-11 Aug-11 Dec-11 Apr-12 Aug-12 Dec-12 Apr-13 Aug-13 Dec-13 Apr-14 Aug-14 Dec-14 Apr-15 Aug-15 Dec-15 Apr-16 Aug-16 Dec-16 Apr-17 One-month Percent Change Conference Board Leading Economic Indicators Index August 2007 through April % 1.0% 0.5% 0.0% -0.5% -1.0% April 2017: where 2010: % Source: Conference Board

31 The Closer Global economy remains weak, and correspondingly... ; Global money has continued to pour into America in search of yield and safety, including into commercial real estate that was particularly true in 2015, a bit less true in 2016 M&A activity also stimulated; Inflationary pressures are on the rise so, too, are interest rates that could begin to squeeze asset prices in 2017, particularly if expected tax cuts are not passed into law; There are indications of mini-bubbles forming in commercial real estate, particularly in office, lodging and multifamily segments; There are also longer-term structural considerations, including the national debt and pending insolvencies of Medicare and Social Security the longer-term outlook may be deteriorating even as the short-run improves; Momentum should see us through 2017, but tighter monetary policy combined with a heavy dose of political intrigue could render 2018 far different. By this time in 2019, the economy could be in a far different place and likely will be. Photo: Google *Kyra Sedgwick as Brenda Leigh Johnson

32 Thank You Follow us on You can always reach me at Please look for updates of information at Also, if you need us in a hurry, we are at ( SAGE) Please contact us when you require economic research & policy analysis.

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