MACROECONOMIC ANALYSIS AND FORECASTING IN EMERGING ECONOMIES WITH A FOCUS ON ASIA

Transcription

1 GLOBAL SEMINAR MACROECONOMIC ANALYSIS AND FORECASTING IN EMERGING ECONOMIES July 17-19, 2017 Singapore HOSTED BY

2 COURSE DESCRIPTION GLOBAL SEMINAR Key Macroeconomic Topics and Forecasting in Emerging Economies This three-day seminar presents practical tools useful in country analysis to help economists better assess a country s macroeconomic conditions and prepare consistent forecasts for the real, fiscal, monetary, and external sectors. The program also includes a series of workshops in which participants are divided into groups, under the guidance of counselors, to implement the diagnostic and analytical tools presented in the lectures and to develop consistent forecasts of key macroeconomic indicators in Emerging economies, particularly in Asia. An impressive group of expert industry practitioners, including experts and former IMF staff members will share their insights with participants. This seminar is similar to a condensed version of the twoweek Financial Programming and Policies or Macroeconomic Diagnostic courses offered by the IMF. Class size will be kept small and the content is tailored to fit participants interests. LEARNING OBJECTIVES Review the principal features of the different accounts used in macroeconomic analysis, and the interrelations among these accounts Receive insights from leading experts on the formulation of internally-consistent forecasts and financial programs Participate in a country case study with fellow participants to analyze economic challenges and develop forecasts under the guidance of experienced counselors Network with global peers PLEASE JOIN US IN SINGAPORE TO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF THIS UNIQUE OPPORTUNITY IDEAL FOR PROFESSIONALS WHO: Provide advice on macroeconomic and financial policies Work in economic research at financial institutions, hedge funds, central banks, ministry of finance, and work on country/sovereign risk or investment management REGISTER AT.COM/ EVENTS Registration is open up to one week prior to the program start date or until capacity is reached. Capacity limitations may force some programs to close registration early. PROGRAM FACTS Date: July 17-19, 2017 Location: Singapore Venue: DBS Auditorium, Marina Bay Program Fee: Member Firm $950 (USD) Non-Member Firm $1,200 (USD) This training course will be eligible for CPD/CE credits through the Chartered Institute for Securities & Investment (CISI), the Chartered Banker Institute, the CFA Institute, the Global Association of Risk Professionals (GARP), and the International Compliance Association (ICA). 2

3 MONDAY JULY 17 8:30 am 9:00 am REGISTRATION 9:00 am 9:15 am SESSION 1: WELCOMING SESSION Opening remarks Introduction to the program What you will learn on this course? Piyush Gupta, Chief Executive Officer and Director, DBS Group., Asia Pacific, 9:15 am 10:00 am SESSION 2: HOW DO WE GO ABOUT DOING PROJECTIONS Projecting growth Examples of inconsistency of forecast Schematic representation of inter-sectoral linkages 10:00 am 11:00 am SESSION 3: INTERRELATIONS AMONG MACROECONOMIC ACCOUNTS Links between BOP and the fiscal sector Links between BOP and monetary survey Links between the fiscal sector and monetary sector Data consistency, MENA,, MENA, 11:00 am 11:30 am COFFEE BREAK 11:30 am 12:30 pm SESSION 4: PROJECTING GDP AND COMPONENTS Estimating potential output using production function - Hodrick-Prescott filter of real GDP - Production function Growth accounting decomposition Forecasting CPI inflation Forecasting the GDP deflator, MENA, 3 12:30 pm 1:30 pm LUNCH 1:30 pm 2:30 pm SESSION 5: MONETARY POLICY ASSESSMENT Inflation drivers New Keynesian Phillips curve Yield curves and monetary policy Taylor rule Asia Pacific, 2:30 pm 3:00 pm COFFEE BREAK 3:00 pm 4:00 pm SESSION 6: FORECASTING THE CURRENT ACCOUNT Analytical presentation of the BOP Exports, imports and other current account components Asia Pacific, 4:00 pm 5:00 pm SESSION 7: FORECASTING CAPITAL FLOWS IN EMERGING ECONOMIES Asia Foreign direct investment Pacific, Portfolio investment KEY MACROECONOMIC Other TOPICS investment AND FORECASTING IN EMERGING ECONOMIES 3

4 TUESDAY JULY 18 9:00 am 10:00 am SESSION 8: FORECASTING EXCHANGE RATES IN EMERGING ASIA 10:00 am 11:00 am SESSION 9: FORECASTING THE FISCAL ACCOUNTS Analytical presentation of the fiscal accounts Forecasting revenues Forecasting expenditures Country examples Philip Wee Executive Director, Group Research, DBS MENA, 11:00 am 11:30 am COFFEE BREAK 11:30 am 12:30 pm SESSION 10: EXTERNAL AND FISCAL SUSTAINABILITY Key external indicators Assessing fiscal sustainability Debt-to-GDP dynamics How to stabilize debt Country examples MENA, 12:30 pm 1:30 pm LUNCH 1:30 pm 2:30 pm SESSION 11: FORECASTING THE MONETARY SURVEY Analytical presentation of the monetary survey Forecasting net foreign assets, domestic credit, and other items Forecasting broad money Country examples 2:30 pm 3:30 pm SESSION 12: MACROECONOMIC PERSPECTIVE OF EMERGING ASIAN ECONOMIES OVERVIEW AND CHALLENGES Monetary and fiscal policies Exchange rate policy and assessment Key external indicators Structural reforms MENA, Asia/Pacific, 3:30 pm 4:00 pm COFFEE BREAK 4:00 pm 5:00 pm SESSION 13: OUTLOOK AND RISKS FOR CHINA Shifts in growth drivers Impact of aging, lower capital, and productivity growth Deleveraging and structural reforms China s impact on emerging markets David Carbon DBS 4

5 WEDNESDAY JULY 19 9:00 am 9:30 am SESSION 14: DISCUSSION ON COUNTRY CASES Prepare forecasts for 2017 and 2018 by sectors Assumptions: commodity prices, global growth Participants are expected to bring their own laptops equipped with Excel and preferably EViews 9 (MS Windows compatible) to work on a macroeconomic framework of selected countries MENA, 9:30 am 10:30 am SESSION 15: GROUP WORK ON THE COUNTRY CASE STUDY WITH HELP FROM COUNSELORS Forecast of real GDP growth Estimating potential growth Forecast of CPI and GDP deflator MENA, Asia/Pacific, 10:30 am 11:00 am COFFEE BREAK 11:00 am 12:00 pm SESSION 16: GROUP WORK ON THE COUNTRY CASE STUDY WITH HELP FROM COUNSELORS (CONT.) Forecast of government revenue Forecast of government spending Asia/Pacific, 12:00 pm 1:00 pm SESSION 17: FINANCIAL SYSTEM ANALYSIS IN EM ASIA Tools to analyze the health of the financial system Financial soundness indicators Surveillance efforts in Asia/Pacific banks Monitoring and stress-testing Michael Puli Associate Director Financial Institutions Ratings, S&P Global Ratings 1:00 pm 2:00 pm LUNCH 2:00 pm 3:30 pm SESSION 18: GROUP WORK ON THE COUNTRY CASE STUDY WITH HELP FROM COUNSELORS (CONT.) Forecast of the main components of the balance of payments Forecasting the monetary survey MENA, Asia/Pacific, 3:30 pm 4:00 pm COFFEE BREAK 4:00 pm 5:00 pm SESSION 19: WRAP UP What have we learned over the three days main takeaways What are the areas where more focus is needed going forward MENA, Asia/Pacific, 5

6 SPEAKER PROFILES Piyush Gupta, Chief Executive Officer and Director, DBS Group. DBS is a leading financial services group in Asia, with a growing presence in Greater China, Southeast Asia and South Asia. Headquartered in Singapore, the bank has been recognised for its leadership in the region, having been conferred Asia s Best Bank by The Banker and Euromoney, and Asian Bank of the Year by IFR Asia. The bank has also been named Safest Bank in Asia by Global Finance for eight consecutive years from 2009 to DBS is at the forefront of leveraging digital technology to shape the future of banking, and has been named World s Best Digital Bank by Euromoney. Prior to joining DBS, Piyush was Citigroup s Chief Executive Officer for Southeast Asia, Australia and New Zealand. Piyush is a member of the Executive Committee of the Institute of International Finance, Washington and a member of the Board of Trustees of Asia Society. In addition, he serves as the Deputy Chairman of SPRING Singapore and sits on the boards of The Institute of Banking and Finance, Dr. Goh Keng Swee Scholarship Fund and National Research Foundation, Prime Minister s Office. He is also the Chairman of The Association of Banks in Singapore and Sim Kee Boon Institute for Financial Economics Advisory Board, and a term trustee of the Singapore Indian Development Association (SINDA). David Carbon, DBS David Carbon is the Chief Economist and Managing Director for Economic and Currency Research at DBS Bank. He has more than 30 years of experience covering the economies & markets of Asia and the G10 from Singapore, Hong Kong and London. David began his banking career in Asia with JP Morgan and spent 5 years with WestLB AG in London where headed their G10 economic and currency research team. After returning to Asia, David was in 2012 voted the Best Economist in Southeast Asia in an investor poll conducted by Alpha Southeast Asia. Prior to his career in investment banking, Carbon taught international trade and finance at Fudan University in Shanghai and at the Guangdong Engineering Institute in Guangzhou and was a Fellow at the Korea Development Institute in Seoul. David graduated Phi Beta Kappa from the University of Wisconsin and holds an MPhil in economics from Yale University. He is fluent in Mandarin. 6

7 SPEAKER PROFILES, Asia Pacific, Institute of International Finance Dr. has over twenty five years experience in the analysis of macroeconomic policy, capital flows and financial sector; communicating research to bankers, asset managers and senior officials; providing policy advice, leading missions, and organizing/participating in conferences; and developing/maintaining high-level contacts with senior officials and the private sector. He is Chief Economist for Asia/Pacific at the, where he manages the economic analysis for the region. In addition to responsibilities at the, Dr. Das Gupta serves as Adjunct Professor of the Maxwell School of Syracuse University s Washington Program. He is also a Member of the Board of the Mandiri Institute, which was established in May 2014 by Bank Mandiri, Indonesia s largest bank, to promote research on financial inclusion, deepening and entrepreneurship to shape the public policy agenda. Prior to joining the in 1993, Dr. Das Gupta served as Economist for the International Lead and Zinc Study Group in London, an inter-governmental commodity organization, and in investment banking with Grindlays Bank. After graduating from the London School of Economics, he received M.Phil. and D.Phil. in Economics from Christ Church, Oxford. He is a recipient of several prizes, including the AMEX Bank Review Awards in International Economics and Finance in He was born in Kolkata, India, where he completed his early education., Middle East and North Africa Department, Institute of International Finance Dr. has more than 25 years experience in macroeconomic analysis and forecasting of MENA economies. He is currently the Chief Economist for the Middle East and North Africa Department at the. Prior to joining the in 2008, he worked for 18 years at the International Monetary Fund (IMF). While there he held the positions of senior economist and senior advisor to an Executive Director where he monitored and assessed macroeconomic and financial developments of several Middle Eastern and Central Asian economies. Prior to joining the IMF he served as international economist at the Royal Bank of Canada and taught macroeconomics and econometrics at Concordia University in Montreal, Canada. He received his Ph.D. in Economics from Freiburg University, Germany after obtaining a masters degree from the American University of Beirut. Iradian has published several articles and working papers on sources of growth, income inequality, and economic challenges of MENA economies. Philip Wee, Executive Director, Group Research, DBS Bank Philip Wee co-manages macroeconomic and market research at DBS Group Research. His team comprises of four economists and two strategists. Prior to joining DBS Bank in 2000, he was a Treasury Economist at Standard Chartered Bank, and an Economist at NatWest Markets and HSBC. In all, Philip has more than twenty years in analyzing economic and market trends in G3 and Asian economies. In 2016, Philip was best remembered as the only economist who correctly predicted Singapore ending its appreciating SGD policy in April. His Singapore dollar nominal effective exchange rate (SGD NEER) model is closely followed by institutional clients. In the second half of 2016, Philip has been cautioning against excessive pessimism to the bank s corporate, multinational and institutional clients across Asia. Believing that a global cyclical recovery was underway, Philip has been looking for commodities and world trade to bottom, upside surprises in growth and inflation, and the US Fed to step up its rate hikes this year. Philip s key research interests are global imbalances and the integrity of the global financial system, the internationalization of the Chinese yuan and the US Federal Reserve s monetary policy. 7

8 SPEAKER PROFILES Michael Puli, Associate Director, Financial Institutions Ratings, S&P Global Ratings Michael has worked for S&P Ratings Services since February Based in Singapore, Michael specializes in the analysis of financial market infrastructures, banks and finance companies across Australia and South/Southeast Asia. Before joining S&P Ratings, Michael spent five years at the Australian Prudential Regulation Authority. Over this time, he held various roles at the Australian Prudential Regulation Authority (APRA) covering policy development, supervision of financial conglomerates, and banking statistics. Michael holds a Masters of Economics from the University of Sydney, and Bachelors of Commerce (Finance) and Information Systems from the University of Melbourne. 8

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