IIF GLOBAL SEMINAR: MACROECONOMIC ANALYSIS AND FORECASTING IN EMERGING ECONOMIES. June 6-8, 2016 London, UK IN COOPERATION WITH

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1 IIF GLOBAL SEMINAR: MACROECONOMIC ANALYSIS AND FORECASTING IN EMERGING ECONOMIES June 6-8, 2016 London, UK IN COOPERATION WITH

2 COURSE DESCRIPTION IIF GLOBAL SEMINAR: Macroeconomic Analysis and Forecasting in Emerging Economies Following the tremendous success our 2015 program in Dubai, we have moved this course to London to reach more of our membership. This three day program is similar to a condensed version of the two-week Macroeconomic Analysis and Policies course offered by the IMF. Class size has been kept small and the content is tailored to fit participants interests. The course presents practical tools useful in country analysis to help economists better assess a country s macroeconomic conditions and prepare consistent forecasts for the real, fiscal, monetary, and external sectors. The program also includes a series of workshops in which participants are divided into groups, under the guidance of counselors, to implement the diagnostic and analytical tools presented in the lectures and to develop consistent forecasts of key macroeconomic indicators in two major emerging economies (Emerging Europe and Asia/Pacific) LEARNING OBJECTIVES Review the principal features of the different accounts used in macroeconomic analysis, and the interrelations among these accounts Receive insights from leading experts on the formulation of internally consistent forecasts and financial programs Participate in a country case study with fellow participants to analyze economic challenges and develop forecasts under the guidance of an experienced counselor Network with global peers An impressive group of expert industry practitioners, including former IMF staff members, senior IIF experts, executive industry leaders, and expert speakers will share their insights and experiences with participants. WE THANK THOSE OF YOU WHO JOINED US IN LONDON TO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF THIS UNIQUE OPPORTUNITY. This seminar will be eligible for 18 CPD/CE credits through the Chartered Institute for Securities & Investment (CISI), the CFA Institute, the Global Association of Risk Professionals (GARP), the International Compliance Association (ICA), and the Chartered Banker. 2 MACROECONOMIC ANALYSIS AND FORECASTING IN EMERGING ECONOMIES

3 MONDAY JUNE 6 8:30 am 9:00 am REGISTRATION 9:00 am 9:20 am SESSION 1: WELCOMING SESSION Opening remarks Introduction to the program 9:20 am 10:30 am SESSION 2: HOW DO WE GO ABOUT DOING PROJECTIONS More words of wisdom Projecting growth Example of inconsistency of forecast Schematic representation of inter-sectoral linkages David Schraa, Regulatory Council, European Representative Office, IIF 10:30 am 11:00 am COFFEE BREAK 11:00 am 12:00 pm SESSION 3: INTERRELATIONS AMONG MACROECONOMIC ACCOUNTS Links between balance of payments and the fiscal sector Links between balance of payments and monetary survey Links between the fiscal sector and monetary sector Data consistency 12:00 pm 1:00 pm SESSION 4: EMPIRICAL METHODS General considerations about forecasting The autoregressive distributed lag (ADL) model The error correction model Vector auto-regressions: estimating and forecasting 1:00 pm 2:00 pm LUNCH 2:00 pm 3:00 pm SESSION 5: PROJECTING GDP Estimating potential output using production function Growth accounting decomposition Projecting GDP by expenditure components Leading economic indicators 3 3:00 pm 3:30 pm COFFEE BREAK 3:30 pm 4:15 pm SESSION 6: EMPIRICAL METHODS CASE STUDY POLAND/ RUSSIA Forecasting potential growth The Hodrick-Prescott filter of real GDP CPI inflation/keynesian Phillips curve Forecasting growth and inflation in Poland/Russia 4:15 pm 5:00 pm SESSION 7: FORECASTING THE CURRENT ACCOUNT Analytical presentation of the balance of payments Forecasting exports of goods and services Forecasting imports of goods and services Forecasting income receipts and payments MACROECONOMIC ANALYSIS AND FORECASTING IN EMERGING ECONOMIES 3

4 TUESDAY JUNE 7 8:30 am 9:30 am SESSION 8: FORECASTING THE FINANCIAL ACCOUNT Drivers of flows by component (FDI, portfolio, banking flows) Forecasting the financial account (FDI, portfolio flows, loans, etc.) Capital flows outlook for 2016 and :30 am 10:15 am SESSION 9: EXTERNAL AND FISCAL SUSTAINABILITY Key external indicators Debt dynamics How to stabilize debt 10:15 am 10:45 am COFFEE BREAK 10:45 am 12:00 pm SESSION 10: GUIDELINES FOR FORECASTING THE FISCAL ACCOUNTS Analytical presentation of the fiscal accounts Forecasting revenues Forecasting expenditures 12:00 pm 12:30 pm SESSION 11: FORECASTING THE MONETARY SURVEY Analytical presentation of the monetary survey Forecasting net foreign assets Forecasting domestic credit Forecasting other items net Forecasting broad money 12:30 pm 1:30 pm LUNCH 1:30 pm 2:15 pm SESSION 12: MACROECONOMIC PERSPECTIVE OF ASIAN ECONOMIES OVERVIEW AND CHALLENGES Monetary and fiscal policies Exchange rate policy and assessment Key external indicators Structural reforms 2:15 pm 3:00 pm SESSION 13: MACROECONOMIC PERSPECTIVE OF EMERGING EUROPEAN ECONOMIES OVERVIEW AND CHALLENGES Monetary and fiscal policies Exchange rate policy and assessment Key external indicators Structural reforms 3:00 pm 3:30 pm COFFEE BREAK 3:30 pm 4:30 pm SESSION 14: WHY THE CHINESE ECONOMY IS SLOWING Shift in the drivers of growth Impact of aging, lower capital, and productivity growth Lower potential growth forecast China s impact on emerging markets Policy action to boost productivity 4:30 pm 5:30 pm SESSION 15: RATING AGENCIES APPROACHES TO COUNTRY SOVEREIGN RISK ANALYSIS Fundamentals of credit ratings: ratings process, rating definitions, sovereign ratings performance, etc. Rating above the sovereign What to look at when determining the riskiness of a country Country example: Turkey Jan Dehn, Global Head of Research, Ashmore Investment Management Paul Gamble, Senior Director, Sovereign Group, Fitch Ratings 4 MACROECONOMIC ANALYSIS AND FORECASTING IN EMERGING ECONOMIES

5 WEDNESDAY JUNE 8 9:00 am 9:30 am SESSION 16: DISCUSSION ON COUNTRY CASES Prepare forecasts for 2016 and 2017 by sectors Assumptions: exchange rate, commodity prices, global growth Participants are expected to bring their own laptops to work on a macroeconomic framework of selected countries. 9:30 am 11:00 am SESSION 17: GROUP WORK ON THE COUNTRY CASE STUDY WITH HELP FROM COUNSELORS Forecast of real GDP growth Forecast of CPI and GDP deflator 11:00 am 11:30 am COFFEE BREAK 11:30 am 1:00 pm SESSION 18: GROUP WORK ON THE COUNTRY CASE STUDY WITH HELP FROM COUNSELORS (CONTINUED) Forecast of government revenue Forecast of government spending 1:00 pm 2:00 pm LUNCH 2:00 pm 3:00 pm SESSION 19: GROUP WORK ON THE COUNTRY CASE STUDY WITH HELP FROM COUNSELORS (CONTINUED) Forecasting the current account Forecasting the financial account Forecasting net foreign assets Forecasting domestic credit Forecasting broad money 3:00 pm 3:30 pm COFFEE BREAK 3:30 pm 4:30 pm SESSION 20: SELECTED PARTICIPANT PRESENTATIONS Country X Country Y Country Z 4:30 pm 5:00 pm SESSION 21: WRAP UP What have we learned over the three days main takeaways What are the areas where more focus is needed going forward? MACROECONOMIC ANALYSIS AND FORECASTING IN EMERGING ECONOMIES 5

6 SPEAKER PROFILES David Schraa, Regulatory Counsel, European Representative Office, Institute of International Finance David is resident at the IIF European Representative Office in London. The Regulatory Affairs Department supports the IIF's representation of internationally active financial institutions to the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision, IOSCO, IAIS, the Financial Stability Board, Joint Forum, IASB and other international regulatory groups. Prior to joining the IIF, David held senior positions at J.P. Morgan, as a Managing Director; he came to J.P. Morgan from Davis Polk & Wardwell, having served in its New York and Paris offices. He has a B.A. from Pomona College and a J.D. from the Harvard Law School. Middle East and North Africa, Institute of International Finance Dr. Garbis Iradian has more than 25 years experience in macroeconomic analysis and forecasting of MENA economies. He is currently the Chief Economist for the Middle East and North Africa Department at the IIF. Prior to joining the IIF in 2008, he worked for 18 years at the International Monetary Fund (IMF). While there he held the positions of senior economist and senior advisor to an Executive Director where he monitored and assessed macroeconomic and financial developments of several Middle Eastern and Central Asian economies. Prior to joining the IMF he served as international economist at the Royal Bank of Canada and taught macroeconomics and econometrics at Concordia University in Montreal, Canada. He received his Ph.D. in Economics from Freiburg University, Germany. He has published several articles and working papers on MENA and Central Asian Economies. Emerging Europe, Institute of International Finance Prior to joining the IIF, Dr. Ondrej Schneider was an adjunct Associate Professor at the Economics Department of Georgetown University, Washington, DC. In 2008, he was a research fellow at the Centre for European Policy Analysis in Washington DC. Ondrej Schneider lived in Prague until 2007 where he was an Associate Professor of Economics at Charles University Czech government and he was advising the Czech government (ministries of finance; industry; and social affairs) and worked as a consultant to the OECD and the World Bank. He was also a board member of the largest Czech energy producer, CEZ, and a board member of an investment boutique Warren Partners. Ondrej received his Master degree in Economics at Cambridge University in 1993, and PhD. in Economics at the CERGE-EI in Prague in He has published a number of papers in professional journals in Europe and in the United States. The main research areas included public finances and fiscal policy, European economic integration and political economy. 6 MACROECONOMIC ANALYSIS AND FORECASTING IN EMERGING ECONOMIES

7 SPEAKER PROFILES Chief Economist for Asia/Pacific, Institute of International Finance Dr. Bejoy Das Gupta has more than 25 years experience in the analysis of macroeconomic policy, capital flows and financial sectors; and communicating research to financial institutions. He is Chief Economist for Asia/Pacific at the IIF, where he manages the economic analysis for the region. Dr. Das Gupta also serves as Adjunct Professor of the Maxwell School of Syracuse University s Washington Program. He is also a Member of the Board of the Mandiri Institute, which was established in May 2014 by Bank Mandiri, Indonesia s largest bank, to promote research on financial inclusion and entrepreneurship to shape the public policy agenda. Prior to joining the IIF in 1993, Dr. Das Gupta served as Economist for the International Lead and Zinc Study Group in London, and in investment banking with ANZ Bank. After graduating from the London School of Economics, he received M.Phil. and D.Phil. in Economics from Christ Church, Oxford. Jan Dehn, Global Head of Research, Ashmore Investment Management Dr Jan Dehn, Global Head of Research, joined Ashmore in Jan has extensive experience of trading Emerging Markets sovereign external debt, local currency bonds, FX, corporate bonds, and Frontier Markets. He joined Ashmore from Credit Suisse First Boston, where he worked as a sovereign fixed income analyst covering Latin America, mainly out of New York. He has also covered Eastern European, South African, and Mexican markets in a local currency strategy role. Jan was a consultant to the World Bank's research department in Washington DC on public expenditure and commodity issues. He advised the Ministry of Finance and Economic Development in Uganda for two years as an ODI Fellow. Jan has travelled to more than 120 countries. He holds a Doctorate in Economics from Oxford University, a Master s Degree in Quantitative Development Economics from Warwick University, and a Bachelor s Degree in Economics from Sussex University. He lived for several years in East Africa as a child, where his parents worked for various development agencies. He has also lived in the Caribbean. He is a fully qualified wooden shipwright. Paul Gamble, Senior Director and Head of Emerging Europe, Sovereign Ratings Group, Fitch Ratings Paul has been at Fitch Ratings since August 2012 and has been Head of Emerging Europe in Fitch s Sovereign Ratings Group based in London since mid He has primary responsibility for the analysis and rating of sovereigns in Emerging Europe, with particular emphasis on Turkey and the region s energy exporters. Previously, Paul was responsible for credit ratings for the bulk of Middle Eastern sovereigns and some Emerging European and African sovereigns. Prior to joining Fitch, Paul spent five years at Jadwa Investment in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, rising to the position of Chief Economist. Previously, Paul was a Senior Economist at Samba Financial Group, also in Riyadh. Before this, Paul was an Economist covering the Middle East and Africa for the Institute of International Finance in Washington, DC, a role he took after seven years producing political and economic analysis on the EMEA region for London based consultancies. MACROECONOMIC ANALYSIS AND FORECASTING IN EMERGING ECONOMIES 7

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