10-Year Technology Trends

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1 SESSION 4 10-Year Technology Trends Keynote/Moderator Carole Barbeau President - Energy Advisory Americas DNV GL Ben Bixby General Manager & Director of Energy Products, Nest Joe Jankosky Director for Energy Market Optimization, Intel Amar Pradhan Global Strategy Leader, IBM

2 Digitization The Industrial Revolution DNV GL July 2016 For internal use only

3 Because of Blockchain - Disruptors at risk of being disrupted? 3 DNV GL July 2016 For internal use only

4 Digitization Revolution AI (deep learning, quantum computing) IoT, cybersecurity Big Data, analytics (machine learning) Cloud computing Smart phone 4 DNV GL July 2016 For internal use only

5 Smart (sensor) devices 5 DNV GL July 2016 For internal use only

6 500B to 1T devices connected by DNV GL July 2016 For internal use only

7 Deep Learning mimics the human brain structure and functions AI Deep Learning Machine learning Human brain neural network Deep Learning (Node network) 7 DNV GL July 2016 For internal use only

8 AI is a software that right itself Biped Learning to Walk Using Evolved Neural Nets (Natural Motion) 8 DNV GL July 2016 For internal use only

9 AI Technologies Machine Learning algorithms Deep Learning algorithms State-of-the-Art technology Cutting edge technology 9 DNV GL July 2016 For internal use only

10 Why Deep Learning is so hot now? Deep Learning algorithms Performance Machine Learning algorithms Amount of data 1 DNV GL July 2016 For internal use only

11 Deep Learning + Big Data (Facebook photo) = diagnose of genetic diseases from dysmorphic features 1 DNV GL July 2016 For internal use only

12 Speech recognition 1 DNV GL July 2016 For internal use only

13 HELLO TOMORROW DNV GL July 2016 For internal use only

14 10 Year Technology Trends DNV Executive Forum Dana Point, California May 17, 2017 Nest Labs Confidential

15 Nest Labs Confidential

16 Nest Labs Confidential

17 Nest Labs Confidential

18 Nest Labs Confidential

19 Nest Labs Confidential

20 Nest Labs Confidential

21 The big problem isn t that you can t tweet from your refrigerator Nest Labs Confidential

22 Nest Labs Confidential

23 1946 $6,000,000* Nest Labs Confidential

24 mm 7.44 mm Nest Labs Confidential

25 1981 $4,500 Nest Labs Confidential

26 2001 $549 Nest Labs Confidential

27 2015 $9 Nest Labs Confidential

28 2015 $9 Nest Labs Confidential

29

30

31

32

33

34 25,000

35 1 in 5 Nest customers has a Works With Nest integration

36 Network Topology End Device Thread Leader Thread Router Border Router Thread Link

37 Customers buy smart thermostats for comfort, convenience, and energy savings. Nest Labs Confidential

38 Nest Labs Confidential

39

40 HVAC Schedule Tuneup In-Practice: Summer 2016 Oregon Wisconsin Nest Labs Confidential 3-5% incremental HVAC savings Key: Shading shows season ending: light=25% no longer cooling medium=50% dark=75% no longer cooling

41 of qualified customers will immediately enroll in a utility s connected home program when given the chance. Nest Labs Confidential Source: Based on real results from Nest s deployment of 12 Seasonal Savings programs in Summer, % is of eligible customers.

42 You can invite 100,000 customers to a connected home energy and have 80,000 opt-in on the first day. program... Nest Labs Confidential

43 Custom Thermal Models Personalized Experiences Nest Labs Confidential

44 Pre-cooling period Rush Hour Leaky home House warms up quickly House warms up slowly 78ºF 77ºF 76ºF 75ºF 74ºF 73ºF 72ºF 1:00PM 2:00PM 3:00PM 4:00PM 5:00PM 6:00PM 7:00PM 0 8:00PM0 Non-leaky home 78ºF 77ºF 76ºF 75ºF 74ºF 73ºF 72ºF 1:00PM 2:00PM 3:00PM 4:00PM 5:00PM 6:00PM 7:00PM 0 8:00PM0 Nest Labs Confidential Target temperature Indoor temperature

45 Pre-cooling period Rush Hour Leaky home 78ºF 77ºF 76ºF 75ºF 74ºF 73ºF 72ºF 1:00PM 2:00PM 3:00PM 4:00PM 5:00PM 6:00PM 7:00PM 0 8:00PM0 RHR will pre-cool only for a short period RHR will pre-cool for a full hour Non-leaky home 78ºF 77ºF 76ºF 75ºF 74ºF 73ºF 72ºF 1:00PM 2:00PM 3:00PM 4:00PM 5:00PM 6:00PM 7:00PM 0 8:00PM0 Nest Labs Confidential Target temperature Indoor temperature

46 Pre-cooling period Rush Hour Leaky home 78ºF 77ºF 76ºF 75ºF 74ºF 73ºF 72ºF 1:00PM 2:00PM 3:00PM 4:00PM 5:00PM 6:00PM 7:00PM 0 8:00PM0 just before Rush Hour = ready to shed load and preserve comfort Non-leaky home 78ºF 77ºF 76ºF 75ºF 74ºF 73ºF 72ºF 1:00PM 2:00PM 3:00PM 4:00PM 5:00PM 6:00PM 7:00PM 0 8:00PM0 Nest Labs Confidential Target temperature Indoor temperature

47 Pre-cooling period Rush Hour Leaky home 78ºF 77ºF 76ºF 75ºF 74ºF 73ºF 72ºF 1:00PM 2:00PM 3:00PM 4:00PM 5:00PM 6:00PM 7:00PM 0 8:00PM0 Requires multiple cycling events Requires one cycling event only Non-leaky home 78ºF 77ºF 76ºF 75ºF 74ºF 73ºF 72ºF 1:00PM 2:00PM 3:00PM 4:00PM 5:00PM 6:00PM 7:00PM 0 8:00PM0 Nest Labs Confidential Target temperature Indoor temperature

48 100% Pre-cooling Rush Hour 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% 1:00PM Projected AC use without Rush Hour Rewards Actual AC use Nest Labs Confidential

49 Nest Labs Confidential

50 583 How likely are you to recommend Rush Hour Rewards from your utility & Nest to a friend? Nest Labs Confidential

51

52 Energy Store BYOD Bundled home/bldg. services Energy Collective Local SMEs Data Access Point Manager Micro grids Economic dispatch Reliability dispatch 53

53 Benefits throughout Intel ISG Influence layer Edge compute layer Edge Devices and Things Customer-engagement platform Cloud compute layer Multi-tenant Gateways AI/M2M layer AI/M2M layer Visualization PC Hub Saffron/Nirvana M2M Saffron/Nirvana M2M Load Forecasting Load Optimization Grid-edge Gateways Device Mgmt./Authentication 54

54 55

55 How big is the market? Global Annual Grid Value of IoT Platform Energy Use Cases $ $16 $73 $11 $300 Billions / Year $ $ $152 $46 $- Generation T&D Energy Frequency Regulation Capacity Spinning Reserve Total Value Ancillary Services Connecting devices / loads across residential and C&I buildings is worth $300 billion in annual value to the electricity system 56

56 Be able to choose your own adventure Amar Pradhan Global Strategy Leader, IBM Energy & Utilities May 2017

57 IBM 100+ years of innovation Employee Punch Clock 1889 SABRE Reservation System 1956 Apollo Missions 1969 The Floppy Disk 1973 The IBM PC 1981 Watson 2011 Apple+IBM IBM+Twitter IBM Tabulating Equipment 1954 The Hard Disk Drive 1972 ATM 1974 Universal Product Code (UPC) 2009 Blue Gene supercomputer 2015 The Weather Company

58 We work with clients around the world to transform operations 10 of the world s 10 largest public electric utilities work with IBM Successful projects completed with utility clients in 55 countries around the world Operations Innovation Customer Engagement IBM EE&U Solution Areas Work and Asset Optimization Enterprise Transformation

59 Four types of technology are enabling disruptions: Energy Technology Consumer Technology Increasing substitution threat Solar PV Fuel Cells Embedded Micro Processing Smart Grid/ Grid Digitization Storage Microgrids Wind Automated Demand Response Core Business Disruption Grid / Operational Technology Advanced Network Management Situational Awareness Smart Appliances Apps Internet of Things Mobile Electric Vehicles Cognitive Computing Prosumer Enablement Social Networks Big Data & Analytics Cloud Information Technology Increasing new entrant threat IBM Confidential

60 Leaders Will Assume Key Roles in the Energy Integrator Ecosystem Microgrids VPP Distributed Generation Generation Trading Transmission Distribution Retail Generation T&D Metering Consumption Renewables Commodity Generator VPP O&M Services Grid Operations Grid Developer Healthcare Elderly Care Energy Retail Micro Generation Energy Integration Energy Exchange(s) Storage Microgrid Grid Manager Electric Vehicles Metering Telco Mobility Home Experience (B2C) M&E Home Automation Gentailer Demand Response Forecasting Insurance Security Energy Data Services Settlement Optimization Information Services Customer Intelligence Usage Monitoring Energy Management (B2B) Energy Efficiency Energy Audit Asset Analytics Marketing Services Traffic Information EPC Facilities Mgt

61 The Energy Integrator ecosystem is a platform for incumbents to deepen their roles Energy Exchange Clearinghouse for energy flexibility services Conceptually SABRE for Energy Scheduling, E*TRADE for Energy IoT Market Maker Bid Optimizers DER Aggregators Get energy companies to create markets for DER Unbundle utility services into markets that can be addressed by DER: identify, incorporate or create markets that value dispatchable load Optimally bid DER into markets for profitability and constraints Match a given DER, or aggregation of DER, to specific market for a given time period to optimally generate revenue. Aggregate DER to trade within a clearinghouse A set of outreach programs and services for device registration, validation, orchestration. Trade Settlers Pay DER for verified micro-transactions via some form of metering Micro-settlement: blockchain

62 Key Technologies & Vendors will enable Utilities to assume these New Roles.

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