Two Candidates in Lockstep on the Brink of the Debates

Transcription

1 ABC NEWS/WASHINGTON POST POLL: BEFORE THE DEBATES 10/1/00 EMBARGO: 6:30 P.M. BROADCAST, 9 P.M. PRINT/WEB, Monday, Oct. 2, 2000 Two Candidates in Lockstep on the Brink of the Debates On the eve of their first debate Al Gore and George W. Bush remain in virtual lockstep, with an edge to Gore on the issues but to Bush on the question of government's role in society. Gore beats Bush in trust to handle two key issues in this race, education and "protecting the middle class," and he also holds an edge in the potentially volatile issue of oil prices. But while issues count, most voters also express a philosophical preference for "smaller government with fewer services" and that helps Bush. The result: Gore has 48 support from likely voters, Bush 46 percent essentially a dead heat, like the percent result in an ABC News/Washington Post poll Sept. 6. (Ralph Nader has three percent support, Pat Buchanan one percent.) It's the closest early-october race in at least 20 years, since the Carter-Reagan contest of Bush 40 Gore 30 ABC News/Washington Post Polls: The 2000 Election Results are among likely voters Nader 0 Buchanan May Jun July July Aug Aug Aug Sept Oct

2 DEBATES Contrary to conventional wisdom, debates rarely have a direct, measurable impact on presidential preference. But the last close race is one of the few exceptions: In 1980 Ronald Reagan went into the first debate trailing by eight points, asked voters if they were any "better off," and a few days later led by three. Whether lightning strikes this time for either candidate remains to be seen. But it does look like plenty of eyeballs will be there: Seventy-seven percent of likely voters say they plan to watch the first presidential debate tomorrow night. Another 57 percent plan to watch the vice presidential debate Thursday. It doesn't take much to move things: If a mere five percent of voters moved one way, it would turn a dead heat into a 10-point gap which may help explain the movement in some recent polls. (So may their definition of likely voters, who in this poll account for 52 percent of the voting-age population.) Indeed in this survey, 10 percent of likely voters are still up for grabs those who don't have a strong preference and may change their minds, or are outright undecided. This is down from 15 percent in early September; more people are settling into their choices. But there are still more than enough lightly committed voters to break the race open. THE SEXES - The gender gap remains huge far bigger than usual. Women support Gore by a 18-point margin in this poll, percent, while men support Bush by 13 points, percent. That's a 31-point gender gap. The average is 13 points in the last five elections. Gore's support from women is about the same as Bill Clinton's in 1996, and much better than it was the last time a Democrat lost, In turn, Bush's support from men is close to his father's in 1988 and much better than the GOP nominee's in 1992 or ABC/Post 10/1 Exit Poll-1996 Exit Poll-1992 Exit Poll-1988 Gore Bush Clin Dole Perot Clin Bush Perot Dukakis Bush Women 56% 38 54% % % 50 Men Gap: 31 points 17 points 5 points 16 points ROLE OF GOVERNMENT A key reason for the division between men and women is their differing views of the role of government. Seventy percent of men prefer "smaller government with fewer services." Far fewer women, 48 percent agree; instead women are 21 points more likely to favor "larger government with many services" or be undecided. It matters in vote preferences: All told, 60 percent of likely voters favor smaller government, and they prefer Bush over Gore by percent. Just 32 percent favor larger government, but they prefer Gore over Bush by percent. Vote pref. All Gore Bush

3 Prefer smaller government 60% 31% 63 Prefer larger government These results explain why the contest is so close despite Gore's edge on key issues: There's a conflict between voters' preference for Gore on some issues, and their preference for Bush on the broader size-of-government question. It's a classic battle. Given these results, it shouldn't be a surprise to see Bush in the debates try to paint Gore as a "big government Democrat" or to see Gore echo Clinton's proclamation that the age of big government is gone. ISSUES As is usual in the absence of war or a bad economy, a variety of social issues lead the list of voter concerns this year. Top of the charts has been education, and here Gore continues to hold the edge. Fifty percent say they trust Gore more than Bush to handle education; 39 percent prefer Bush. Gore leads by an even bigger margin, percent, in trust to help the middle class a central theme of his campaign, and one on which Republican candidates, seen by many as favoring the wealthy, long have been vulnerable. (Among likely voters with household incomes of $30,000 to $50,000, Gore leads Bush by five points.) Gore has an edge on a third and more recent issue, oil and gasoline prices: He leads Bush in trust to hold them down, by percent. On two other issues the candidates have battled to a standstill: Taxes, on which Bush has led in the past, but the two are now tied; and "holding down health care costs," also a tie. (In the past, phrased as "improving the health care system," Gore has led.) Among Registered Voters Gore Bush Advantage Candidate you trust on: Helping the middle class 54% 36 Gore +18 Improving education Gore +11 Holding down oil/gas prices Gore +9 Holding down health care costs Gore +2 Holding down taxes Bush +2 THE OIL BIDNESS As an aside, this poll finds something of a split opinion on the Clinton administration's decision to release some of the government's strategic oil reserves in an effort to hold down prices. On one hand, 54 percent support the move. On the other, the same number, 54 percent, think the main purpose was to help Gore in the campaign. CLINTON FATIGUE - This in turn brings up the broader question of Bill Clinton, who still looms large over this election. The nation continues to divide into three groups those who like Clinton and his policies; those who dislike Clinton and his policies; and the critical third group, those who like Clinton's polices, but dislike him personally.

4 That third group of Clinton-fatigued voters is a natural Gore support group on the basis of policy, but he's had trouble winning them over in big enough numbers. In this poll 55 percent of that group favors Gore enough to make it a close race; not enough for Gore to break away. All Vote pref. Gore Bush Like Clinton and his policies 32% 91% 7 Dislike Clinton and his policies Like Clinton's policies, dislike him OTHER GROUPS There are significant regional differences in this poll a sizable Gore lead in the northeast, a slight Bush lead in the Midwest, and essentially dead heats in the South and West. Also, it's Bush +4 among independents, a key swing voter group; but Gore +13 among white Catholics, another crucial group. Gore has a big lead in large cities, with a very small edge to Bush in small towns and rural areas. In the suburbs Gore holds an 11-point lead in voter preferences a dead heat among suburban men, and a 20-point Gore lead among suburban women. CLOSE? A final note: Polls are not predictive and don t try to be. A close race today does not mean it will finish close. A look at the last two close races in early October is instructive: In 1980, Jimmy Carter led Reagan by four points in a Gallup poll on Oct. 13. It was close, but it didn t end close: Reagan won by 10 points in an electoral landslide. In 1976, By contrast, Carter led Gerald Ford by two points on Oct. 4. And that one stayed close: Carter won the election by just a two-point margin. METHODOLOGY This ABC News/Washington Post poll was conducted by telephone Sept. 28-Oct. 1, The horse-race results are based on a random sample of 995 likely voters, drawn from interviews with 1,801 adults; the issues questions are based on interviews with a subset of 947 registered voters. The results have a three-point error margin. Field work by TNS Intersearch of Horsham, Pa. Analysis by Gary Langer. ABC News polls can be found at ABCNEWS.com on the Internet, at: Here are the full results (* is less than one percent.): 3. The candidates in November's presidential election are (Al Gore and Joseph Lieberman, the Democrats,) (George W. Bush and Dick Cheney, the Republicans), (Ralph Nader and Winona LaDuke of the Green Party) and (Pat Buchanan and Ezola Foster of the Reform Party). If the election were being held today, who would you vote for - (Gore), (Bush), (Nader) or (Buchanan)?

5 Net Leaned Vote, Likely Voters: None Other Wouldn't No Gore Bush Buchanan Nader (vol.) (vol.) vote (vol.) op. 10/1/ * * 2 9/6/ * /20/ * * 1 8/10/ * * * 1 8/6/ * 0 * 2 7/29/ * 1 7/23/ * 1 1 6/11/ * * 2 5/10/ * 2 Net Leaned Vote, None Other Wouldn't No Gore Bush Buchanan Nader (vol.) (vol.) vote (vol.) op. 10/1/ /6/ * 1 3 8/20/ * /10/ /6/ * 1 2 7/29/ /23/ * 1 1 6/11/ * 1 2 5/10/ Net Leaned Vote, None Other Wouldn't No Gore Bush Buchanan Nader (vol.) (vol.) vote (vol.) op. 8/6/ * 3 2 7/29/ /23/ * 1 2 6/11/ * 2 2 5/10/ * Do you support (Gore/Bush/Buchanan/Nader) strongly, or not strongly? 10/1/00 Strongly Not strongly No opin. Gore Bush Gore/Bush Trend: Gore Bush Strngly Not No opin. Strngly Not No opin. 10/1/ /6/ /20/ /10/ /23/ /23/ /27/ /6/ /16/ /15/ /31/99* * /2/ /14/ * *10/99 and previous: "strongly or only somewhat"

6 5. Will you definitely vote for (Gore/Bush/Nader/Buchanan) in November, or is there a chance you could change your mind and vote for someone else? Is there a good chance you'll change your mind or would you say it's pretty unlikely? 10/1/ Change mind Definitely vote Good chance Unlikely No opinion Gore Bush Trend: Gore: Change mind Definitely vote Good chance Unlikely No opinion 10/1/ /6/ /20/ /6/ /6/ /23/ Bush: Change mind Definitely vote Good chance Unlikely No opinion 10/1/ /6/ /20/ /6/ General Population 8/6/ /23/ If the only candidates were (Gore) and (Bush), who would you vote for? Net Leaned Vote, Likely Voters: Neither Other Wouldn't No Gore Bush (vol.) (vol.) vote (vol.) opin. 10/1/00* * * 2 9/6/ * 1 1 8/20/00** * /10/00*** * * 1 8/6/ * * 2 7/29/ * 1 7/23/ * 1 1 6/11/ * 0 2 5/10/ * 2 4/2/ * 2 3/11/ * 1 2/27/ /6/ * 2 * 1/16/ *Asked only of those who said Nader, Buchanan, other or don't know in the fourway match-up. Gore and Bush responses are taken from the four-way. **8/20/00 and before: Straight two-way horse race. ***Added v.p. names Net Leaned Vote, Neither Other Wouldn't No Gore Bush (vol.) (vol.) vote (vol.) opin. 10/1/00* * 1 2

7 9/6/ * 2 1 8/20/00** * 1 2 8/10/00*** /6/ * 1 2 7/29/ /23/ * 1 2 6/11/ * 1 2 5/10/ * 1 3 4/2/ * 2 2 3/11/ /27/ /6/ * 2 1 1/16/ /15/ * /31/ * 1 2 *Asked only of those who said Nader, Buchanan, other or don't know in the fourway match-up. Gore and Bush responses are taken from the four-way. **8/20/00 and before: Straight two-way horse race. ***Added v.p. names Net Leaned Vote, Neither Other Wouldn't No Gore Bush (vol.) (vol.) vote (vol.) opin. 8/6/ * 2 2 7/29/ /23/ * 2 2 6/11/ * 2 2 5/10/ * 2 3 4/2/ * 2 2 3/11/ /27/ /6/ * 2 1 1/16/ * /15/ * /31/ * 2 2 9/2/ * 3 2 8/22/ /6/ /14/ * 2 2 Unleaned, Neither Wouldn't No Gore Bush (vol.) vote (vol.) opin. 10/25/ /21/ /19/ /23/ Which presidential candidate, (Gore) or (Bush), do you trust to do a better job on each of these issues? First is (INSERT ITEM) 10/1/00 Both Neither No Gore Bush (vol.) (vol.) opin. A. Holding taxes down B. Improving education and the schools C. Holding down the cost of gasoline and home heating oil D. Holding down health care costs E. Helping the middle class Trend (where available):

8 A. Holding taxes down Both Neither No Gore Bush (vol.) (vol.) opin. 10/1/ /6/ /20/ /23/ /23/ /2/ /11/ /31/ B. Improving education and the schools Both Neither No Gore Bush (vol.) (vol.) opin. 10/1/ /6/ /20/ /23/ /23/ /2/ /11/ /31/ D. Holding down health care costs Both Neither No Gore Bush (vol.) (vol.) opin. 10/1/ Compare to: Improving the health care system 9/6/ /20/ /23/ /23/ Compare to: Protecting patients' rights in the health care system 4/2/ /11/ /31/ E. Helping the middle class Both Neither No Gore Bush (vol.) (vol.) opin. 10/1/ /6/ /20/ /31/ /31/ Would you say you favor smaller government with fewer services, or larger government with many services?

9 Smaller govt. Larger govt. No fewer services many services opinion 10/1/ /23/ /23/ /2/ /16/ /5/ Rep Dels Dem Dels /8/ Rep Dels Dem Dels Rep Dels Dem Dels Dem Dels Do you have a favorable or unfavorable impression of Bill Clinton as a person? Favorable Unfavorable No opinion 10/1/ /6/ /20/ /10/ /15/ /26/ /15/ /2/ /14/ /4/ /15/ /1/ /1/98 LV Do you have a favorable or unfavorable impression of Bill Clinton's policies and programs? Favorable Unfavorable No opinion 10/1/ /6/ /20/ /10/ /15/ /15/ As you may know, the United States has a large supply of oil stored for emergencies. Do you think some of this oil should be used to try to hold down the price of home heating oil and gasoline this winter, or do you think it all should be stored for a bigger emergency? Hold Down Stored for No Price Emergency opinion 10/1/

10 12. As you may know, the Clinton administration recently decided to release about five percent of the nation's oil reserves. Do you think the administration did this more because it was the best thing for the country, or more to help Vice President Al Gore in his presidential campaign? Best thing Help No for country Gore opinion 10/1/ ***END***