RUTGERS CONTACT: CLIFF
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1 FOR RELEASE: IMMEDIATE TUESDAY OCTOBER 5, 1982 k RUTGERS CONTACT: CLIFF THE STATE UNIVERSITY OF NEW JERSEY RELEASE: 68 2 THE EAGLETON INSTITUTE OF POLITICS - WOOD LAWN.NEILSON CAMPUS.NEW BRUNSWICK.NEW JERSEY / I) SENATE POTPOURRI: ISSUES, IDEOLOGY, REAGAN, SEX AND SPOTS The shape of the nation s economy, with particular emphasis on unemployment, is the single dominant issue in the election for U.S. Senate, according to a poll taken by the Eagleton Institute of Rutgers University. finds: The survey of 756 registered voters conducted between September 14 and 25 also While President Reagan receives low marks for his handling of the economy, most voters do not know Millicent Fenwick or Frank Lautenberg s positions on Reagan s economic program. ( Reagan s support of Millicent Fenwick appears to make little difference in the Senate election. About as many undecided voters say they would be more likely to support Fenwick as say they would be less likely to support her, given Reagan s endorsement. About one in seven say that Fenwick s sex makes a difference to them. On balance, Fenwick gains more than she loses by being a woman candidate. Very few voters in New Jersey are able to describe either Fenwick or Lautenberg in ideological terms, as a liberal, moderate or conservative. About 45 percent of registered voters report seeing or hearing advertisements for each candidate. There is almost universal agreement that the nation s economy is the critical issue of the campaign. When asked to name the most important issue the new Senator will have to deal with, about one registered voter in three specifically mentions unemployment or jobs. Another half 52 percent mention other problems of the economy. Less than five percent cite any other issue as mo8t important. While two in three registered voters rate President Reagan s handling of the C are nation s economy as only fair or poor, the candidates positions on Reaganomics largely unknown. Twenty two percent deácribed Fenwick as a supporter of more Attention radio stations; Audio is available on 10/5/82, after 9:00 A.M. from (201) (Rutgers Feature Phone)
2 EP4S 2 Page 2 Reagan s economic program, while lopercthit describe her as a critic. The remainder offer no opinion. Even Fenwick s supporters do not know where the Republican Senatorial candidate stands. Among those intending to vote for Fenwick, 27 percent feel she supports Reagan and 14 percent think she 1s critical of the President s economic policies. Over half of Fenwick s supporters do not know whether she supports or opposes Reaganomics. Democrat Frank Lautenberg has campaigned vigorously against Reagan s economic policies. Among those having heard his message there is no confusion 27 percent describe him as a critic while only one percent describes him as a supporter of Reaganomics. Yet the clear majority, does not know where he stands (38 percent) or is unable to recognize him (34 percent). Cliff Zukin, Director of the Poll, commented that the economy could turn into a sticky issue for Fenwick. With most voters concerned with the shape of the economy and giving Reagan low marks on this score, it will not be a banner year for Republicans. However, up to when the survey was taken, Mrs. Fenwick had managed to keep from being closely linked to Reagan s economic policies. Most voters have trouble labeling the candidates ideologies. Nine percent of registered voters describe Fenwick as a liberal, 22 percent as a moderate and 13 percent as a conservative. The remainder offer no opinion. Knowledge of Lautenberg is even less --1O percent say he is liberal, eight percent call him a moderate and three percent describe him as a conservative. The Eagleton survey finds that Reagan s endorsement of Fenwick makes little overall difference in how people plan to vote. Among undecided voters 12 percent say that if they knew Reagan endorsed Fenwick they would be more likely to support her, while 15 percent say they would be less likely to do so. Fenwick s status as a woman candidate also appears to influence few voters, but on balance is a positive feature of her candidacy. Among undecided voters, 10 Percentc say they are more likely to support her because she is a woman, while four percent say they are less likely. more
3 EP48 2 Page 3 The Eagleton survey also included a question that shows general support for k female candidates. When asked if they would prefer to vote for a woman or man if all other things were equal, 26 percent of registered voters indicate a preference for the female candidate while 14 percent say they would vote for the male. The majority, however, (60 percent) say they would have no preference. Undecided voters in the Senate election are similarily divided, preferring a woman candidate over a man by a margin of 24 to 14 percent. At the time of the survey less than half of the state s registered voters reported seeing or hearing an advertisement for either candidate on television or radio. Overall, 46 percent had seen a Fenwick advertisement, including 38 percent in the northern part of the state, 49 percent in central New Jersey and 57 percent in the southern part of the state. Forty three percent reported seeing or hearing one of Frank Lautenberg s commercials, with little difference between the various regions of the state. Advertisements appeared to be having little impact on the state s undecided voters. Among the 18 percent not having mad&a choice, only four percent said a Fenwick commercial had made them more likely to vote for her and two percent said the commercial had made them less likely. The figures for Lautenberg were similar five percent of undecided voters said they were more, and three percent less likely to vote for Lautenberg as a result of seeing one of his advertisements. 30 Copyright, The Eagleton Institute, 1982.
4 a RUTGERS THE STATE UNIVERSITY 1 OF NEW JERSEY - THE EAGLETON INSTITUTE OF POLITICS WOOD LAWN.NEILSON CAMPUS.NEW BRUNSWICK.NF,W JERSEY / BACKGROUND MEMO RELEASE 48 2, TUESDAY, OCTOBER 5, 1982 The latest Eagleton Poll was conducted between September 14 and 25, 1982, when a random sample of 1,005 New Jerseyans, 18 years and older, was interviewed by telephone. Those saying they were not registered to vote or would definitely not vote in the Senate election have been excluded from the respondent base. The figures presented in this release are based on the remaining 756 citizens and are designated total reg. below. The sampling error associated with this sample size is ±3,7 points at a 95 percent confidence interval. Sampling error does not take into account the other possible sources of error inherent in any public opinion study. The questions and figures referred to in this release follow; What do you think is the most important problem facing the country that the new Senator will have to deal with? Unemployment, jobs (specifically mentioned) 31% Other problems of the economy 52 Taxes, government spending 3 Helping disadvantaged, service cuts 4 Foreign affairs 3 Nuclear freeze, war 1 Other domestic 2 No response 5 - ( Total % (n) (699) Which candidate do you think would do a better job of handling this problem: Millicent Fenwick, the Republican; Frank Lautenberg, the Democrat; or wouldn t there be any difference? - No Don t Fenwick Lautenberg difference know Total (ii) Total reg. 31% 18% 25% 25% 99% (672) Fenwick (387) Lautenberg (187) Undecided (98) PROBLEM MENTIONED Unemployment (202) Other economy (342) Other (74)
5 Excellent Good fair Poor kno* Total Cu) Total Sample 8% 23% 33% 34% 2% 100% (1005) Only Don t excellent, good, only fair or poor? () How would you rate Reagan.s handling of the prob1rns of the nation s economy *Djd not recognize the candidate s name, not asked this follow up question. Undecided (129) Republican (191) Lautenberg (216) Democrat (221) Fenwick (411) Independent (340) PARTY Total Keg (756) LAUTENBERG Undecided (216).- Lautenberg (129) Republican (191) Independent (340) Democrat (221) Fenwick (411) PARTY Total Reg. 22% 10% 54% 14% 100% (756) FENWICK Supporter Critic sure recognized* Total (n) Not Not economic program, or aren t you Overall, would you say that (candidate) is a supporter or critic of Ronald Reagan s EP48 2 2
6 EP4B 2 3 How would you describe (candidate) --as a liberal, moderate, conservative; or aren t you surev FENWICK Not Not Liberal Moderate Conservative sure recognized* Total (n) Total reg. 9% 22% 13% 42% 14% 100% (756) PARTY Democrat (221) Independent (340) Republican (191) Fenwick (411) Lautenberg (129) Undecided (216) LAUTENBERG Total Reg (756) PARTY Democrat (221) Independent (340) Republican (191) Fenwick (411) Lautenberg (216) Undecided (129) *Did not recognize candidate s name, not asked this follow up questibn. If President Reagan endorsed Millicent Fenwick would you be more likely to vote for her, less likely, or wouldn t it make any difference? No More Less difference Total (n) Total Keg. 12% 17% 71% 100% (756) Undecided Voters (129) SEX Men (375) Women (381) Does the fact that Millicent Fenwick is a woman make you more likely to support her, less likely, or mke no difference? No More Less difference Total (n) Total Keg. 10% 4% 87% 101% (757) Undecided Voters (129) SEX Men (375) Women (382)
7 - No EP Some people have said there should be more women in public office, while others feel that sex doesn t make any difference. If all other things were equal, would (N you prefer to vote for a woman or nan? Don t know! difference Women Men (volunteered) Total (n) Total Rag. 26% 14% 60% 100% (756) Undecided Voters (129) SEX Men (375) Women (381) Have you heard any of (candidates) television or radio advertisements? FENWICK YES No, Not TV radio both don t know recognized* Total (ri) Total Reg. 32% 4% 10% 40% 14% 100% (756) REGION North (397) Central 2& (170) South (189) LAUTENBERC Total Keg (756) REGION North (397) Central (17b) South (189) Did these make you feel more inclined to support (candidate), less inclined or make no difference? FENWICIC No Not seenf More Less difference not recognized* Total (n) Total Keg. 12% 3% 31% 54% 100% (756) Fenwick (411) Lautenberg (216) Undecided (129) LAUTENBERG Total Rag (756) Fenwick lou (411) Lautenberg (216) Undecided (129) *Either had not seen ads or did not recognize candidate s names.
8 4.. C; C (
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