Can shifting sands be a solid foundation for growth?
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1 EY Growth Barometer 2017 Germany highlights Can shifting sands be a solid foundation for growth? Growth in disruptive times
2 EY Growth Barometer 2017 Germany Highlights 1 How German businesses are driving their growth agenda Strategies for growth External risks Technology as growth enabler Expanding headcount Good financial housekeeping External collaboration Strategic outlook EY Growth Barometer Germany. Can shifting sands be a solid foundation for growth?
3 Executive summary Middle-market companies worldwide are faced with diverse challenges. Digitization and Industry 4.0 are increasing competitive dynamics. Markets worldwide are being exposed to greater geopolitical uncertainties. And shifting demographics are not only affecting employees, but also leading to completely new customer needs and changed consumer behavior. In Germany, middle-market companies can profit from these developments, according to a new EY survey that examines the challenges, ambitions and growth strategies of middle-market company leaders, including how they estimate and deal with global risks and uncertainties. We found that business confidence is high among many German middle-market companies, despite geopolitical uncertainty, demographic change and rapid technological advances. As the country s economy gains increasing momentum, more than one-third (35%) of C-suite leaders are looking to grow by 6% 10% significantly higher than the World Bank global GDP forecast of 2.7%. However, reflecting sector variations in the business landscape, as many (35%) German firms are predicting modest rises of 0% 5% while one in eight (13%) are looking at growth of 11% 15%. The percentage of companies in this higher band is in line with the US (14%) and slightly lower than Japan (16%), China (17%) and the UK (21%). These findings come from the EY Growth Barometer, a longitudinal global survey of middle-market companies, which represent 99% of all enterprises and contribute almost half of global GDP. In Germany, as elsewhere, the middle market drives economic success, high-impact entrepreneurship and innovation. What is it about middle-market companies that enable them to accelerate growth? Are there lessons for all corporate leaders, whatever their business size? The EY Growth Barometer explores middle-market leaders growth ambitions, strategies and challenges, and their attitudes to global risks and uncertainties. The survey covers 2,340 C-suite executives, in businesses with revenues of US$1m to US$3b, and selected high-growth companies less than five years old. In pursuit of growth, Germany s middle market or Mittelstand is focusing on mergers and acquisitions (M&As) and new geographical markets, with skilled talent and improved supply chain and operations as its main building blocks for success. Especially in Germany, middle-market companies are the innovation and technology engine for the economy and often take an important position in the supply chain of international corporations, says Michael Marbler, EY Growth Markets Leader for Germany, Switzerland and Austria. The survey results prove that the German Mittelstand, with its innovative capacity and international market orientation, profits from disruption and disruptive trends. About the survey EY commissioned Euromoney Institutional Investor Thought Leadership to undertake an online survey of 100% C-suite (60% CEOs, founders or managing directors) in companies from 30 countries and with annual revenues of $1m $3b. The survey was conducted from 31 March May The 2,340 respondents are geographically representative of global GDP (as per World Bank 2016 data). EY further invited its global network of Entrepreneur Of The Year alumni to take the survey. The survey was available in English and six other languages. Further indepth, follow-up interviews were conducted during May 2017 to provide additional specific insights. EY Growth Barometer Germany. Can shifting sands be a solid foundation for growth? 3
4 CHAPTER 01 How German businesses are driving their growth agenda In Germany, industrial output is enjoying its best span of growth since before the 2010 Eurozone debt crisis, 1 fi and the federal budget has been in surplus since middle-market business leaders are predicting robust 2017 growth rates. Over one in three (35%) envisage growing by 6% 10%, with a further 13% looking at 11% 15%. However, the outlook is not uniformly optimistic: another one-third (35%) of German businesses expect to grow by a modest 0% 5%, against 31% globally, with those facing negative growth (13%) also outnumbering the rest of the world (5%). The gulf between the upbeat national picture and the muted predictions of those 48% of businesses fi fi fi broadly between old and new industries. Of the nine sectors surveyed, real estate has one-quarter (25%) of companies predicting negative growth and life sciences and health care have more than one in fi fi positive growth. Sectors with particularly strong revenue forecasts include media/entertainment and technology, in which one-third (33%) and 22% of businesses, respectively, expect to grow by 11% 15%: just one industry has no companies anticipating growth at this level or above real estate. middle-market business leaders are predicting robust 2017 growth rates. 1 (accessed 1 August 2017). 2 (accessed 1 August 2017). 4 EY Growth Barometer Germany. Can shifting sands be a solid foundation for growth?
5 What revenue growth rates do you expect your company to achieve in the coming year? Germany Rest of world More than 50% 2% 26 50% 1% 4% 16 25% 2% 8% 11 15% 13% 16% 6 10% 35% 34% 0 5% 31% 35% Negative growth 5% 13% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% EY Growth Barometer Germany. Can shifting sands be a solid foundation for growth? 5
6 CHAPTER 02 Strategies for growth Technological change and disruption are affecting concentrating solely on organic growth, companies are looking toward acquisitions and strategic alliances/ investments. M&A tops the growth agenda for ambitious German fi leader responses cite acquisition (21%) as a strategic growth priority, with 20% highlighting divestment fi fi of 16% and 12%. The technological change provokes many German middle-market companies to reconsider their strategies and realign their business areas, says Marbler. Part of that process is targeted investments, as well as divestments and the sale of areas that are not part of the core business. This releases capital and resources to tap into new business segments. This tendency follows a 12-month period when the volume and value of the German M&A market fi in 2015 to $200 billion in 2016, with real estate, technology, and energy/power seeing most activity. 3 Entry into a new geographical market, the highest ranked global choice with 25% of responses, comes just third in Germany with 19%. The reason might well be that the German Mittelstand has been pursuing internationalization for quite a while. Marbler says the relative maturity of the German middle market, extolled globally as the backbone of 4 strategic preferences. Many German companies have already reached a high organic growth rate. M&As are the logical next step, he says. Many German companies have already reached a high organic growth rate. M&As are the logical next step. Michael Marbler Germany, Switzerland and Austria Growth Markets Leader, EY 3 Report-Germany.html (accessed 1 August 2017). 4 (accessed 1 August 2017). 6 EY Growth Barometer Germany. Can shifting sands be a solid foundation for growth?
7 Which of the following growth strategies are a strategic priority for your company? Germany Rest of world fi 16% 21% 12% 20% 19% 24% 16% 17% 14% 20% 9% 11% 0% 10% 20% 30% 7 EY Growth Barometer Germany. EY Can Growth shifting Barometer sands be a Germany. solid foundation Can shifting for growth? sands be a solid foundation for growth? 7
8 CHAPTER 03 External risks Increasing competition is the joint highest external risk for both German respondents and their global peers, although at 18% the German emphasis is below that of the rest of the world (21%). This downplaying of the competitive threat is also seen in the fact that new fi in just 9% of German middle-market responses, fi instability, also at 18%, is seen as a slightly higher risk than in the rest of the world (17%) may suggest concerns over the threatened trade restrictions of the US Government, the tensions between Germany and Turkey, and the impact of Brexit. Increasing competition is the joint highest external risk for both German respondents and the global peers. 8 EY Growth Barometer Germany. Can shifting sands be a solid foundation for growth?
9 CHAPTER 04 Technology as growth enabler Technology disruption is considered the biggest internal challenge, with 18% of German responses (17%, globally). But technology is also seen as an one of the factors most likely to improve productivity. Topics such as Industry 4.0 and the Internet of Things are high on the agenda of the industrial Mittelstand in Germany. Process automation also is very much advanced, although just 2% are using RPA today across all surveyed sectors. There are differences between sectors. For example, the degree of automation within the industrial Mittelstand is very much advanced, and other sectors are likely to follow: 13% of German companies say fi Germany is ranked as one of the leading nations Forum, 5 and thus is best prepared for the topic of Industry 4.0, says Marbler. As the cost of entry for RPA lowers, more middle-market companies are expected to adopt these new technologies in the near term. Interestingly, contrary to dystopian media predictions of huge job cuts, the highest number of German respondents think RPA will lead to staff reductions of less than 10%. Technology disruption is considered the biggest internal challenge. 5 (accessed 1 August 2017). EY Growth Barometer Germany. Can shifting sands be a solid foundation for growth? 9
10 CHAPTER 05 Expanding headcount German C-suite are looking to expand staff numbers. Nearly one-quarter (24%) intend to take on more full- fi part-timers. However, in a further allusion to a twospeed economy, 16% of German respondents say they plan to reduce their workforce, compared with 9% in the rest of the world. This corresponds to differing growth plans within sectors. with 19% intending to sign up more contractors/ freelancers (18%, globally). The controversy surrounding the reform of the Employment Act may help to explain why cutting red tape is one of growth one that is not ranked by their global peers. German companies recognize the essential role that good people play: talent with the right skills is ranked as the second most important contributor to growth. However, like other developed markets with aging populations, the country is facing an acute skills shortage; a factor that probably contributes toward demographic shifts being ranked as the most disruptive global megatrends compared to technology, globalization and shifts in working patterns such as the gig economy. The dearth of skilled talent in Germany is likely to be exacerbated by its companies seeking the same skills as businesses everywhere: more people with specialist fi their wish list and that of their global peers. Culture, values and employee engagement and retention play a vital role for success, particularly for family businesses that represent a large part of middle-market companies in Germany, Marbler fi to their employees. Companies are also much more open to career changers another result of disruption. 10 EY Growth Barometer Germany. Can shifting sands be a solid foundation for growth?
11 What are your hiring plans over the next 12 months? Germany Rest of world Hire more full time staff 24% 27% Hire more part time staff 14% 20% Hire more freelancers/ contract staff 19% 18% Keep current staffing levels 21% 32% Reduce staff 9% 16% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 11 EY Growth Barometer Germany. EY Growth Can shifting Barometer sands be Germany. a solid foundation Can shifting for sands growth? be a solid foundation for growth? 11
12 CHAPTER 06 fi fi German business practice is conspicuous in the fi is the most important metric of success; improved fi contributors to growth. Overall, the German middle fi in order to drive its investment ambitions. cross-disciplinary teams with experimental projects. They then look to using customer data to drive innovation from the bottom up and partnering with/ investing in start-ups; the latter, at 15%, is higher fi German middle market is following large company practices in partnering with start-ups to access bleeding-edge innovation. In generating new ideas and boosting innovation, German companies look both internally and externally fi creativity and insight is followed by tasking small 12 EY Growth Barometer Germany. Can shifting sands be a solid foundation for growth?
13 CHAPTER 07 External collaboration fi entities, from suppliers and universities to competitors fi respondents agree/strongly agree that successful network more than its internal capabilities (86%, globally): one-third (34%) are in strong agreement with this statement, 4% up on the rest of the world (30%). A strong belief in the power of an ecosystem of relationships underpins these rankings. At EY, we encourage the collaboration between startups and middle-market companies in various ways, says Hubert Barth, Country Managing Partner of EY Germany, for example in hackathons in which startups are invited to middle-market companies and bring digital know-how. There is a clear win-win-situation fi experience and market know-how of the established fi disruptive ideas of the start-ups. 85% of German respondents agree that successful growth depends on the wider network more than its internal capabilities. EY Growth Barometer Germany. Can shifting sands be a solid foundation for growth? 13
14 CHAPTER 08 Strategic outlook German business leaders are also ahead of the pack in the time they devote to strategic planning, a necessity The highest number of global respondents (44%) spend 80% of their time on current operations, compared to just 33% of German business leaders; and whereas 30% of the rest of the world spend at fi Companies have the structure, organization and skilled people to enable leaders to focus entirely on strategic issues, rather than on everyday problems, he says. This openness to innovation coupled fi characteristics of German business and why so many of them are accelerating growth. German business leaders are ahead of the pack in the time they devote to strategic planning. 14 EY Growth Barometer Germany. Can shifting sands be a solid foundation for growth?
15 Contact Michael Marbler Germany, Switzerland and Austria Growth Markets Leader, EY Global data To delve further into your country findings and make comparisons around the world please visit ey.com/growthbarometer to interact with all the global survey results. Over a third (34%) are set to grow 6% 10% this year, more than double World Bank GDP growth forcasts (2.7%) and 14% of all companies target growth over 16% Expected revenue growth in next year Negative growth 0 5% 6 10% 11 15% 16 25% 26 50% More than 50%
16 EY Assurance Tax Transactions Advisory About EY EY is a global leader in assurance, tax, transaction and advisory services. The insights and quality services we deliver help build trust and confidence in the capital markets and in economies the world over. We develop outstanding leaders who team to deliver on our promises to all of our stakeholders. In so doing, we play a critical role in building a better working world for our people, for our clients and for our communities. EY refers to the global organization, and may refer to one or more, of the member firms of Ernst & Young Global Limited, each of which is a separate legal entity. Ernst & Young Global Limited, a UK company limited by guarantee, does not provide services to clients. For more information about our organization, please visit ey.com. About EY s Growth Markets Network the changing needs of high-growth companies. For more than and ambitious companies grow into market leaders. Whether working with international, mid-cap companies or early stage, venture-backed businesses, our professionals draw upon their extensive experience, insight and global resources to help your business succeed. ey.com/growthmarkets EYGM Limited. All Rights Reserved. EYG no GBL BMC Agency GA ED None this document has been printed on paper with a high recycled content. This material has been prepared for general informational purposes only and is not intended to be relied upon as accounting, tax or other professional advice. Please refer to your advisors for specific advice. ey.com
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