2Q16 CLEVELAND CAPITAL MARKETS REPORT For the Intelligent Investor

Transcription

1 2Q16 CLEVELAND CAPITAL MARKETS REPORT For the Intelligent Investor

2 2Q16 CLEVELAND CAPITAL MARKETS REPORT 3 Market Summary 4 Executive Overview 5 Economic Dashboard 6 Global Yields 7 Top Regional Buyers 8 Pricing Heat Map - Office 9 18-Hour Cities 10 Investment Activity Index - United States Overall Rankings 11 Investment Activity Index - Top 10 Cities 12 Investment Activity Index - Ranking Matrix 13 Capital Markets Analysis 14 Global Capital 15 Global Outbound United States Capital 16 International Capital Distribution - United States 17 International Capital Investment - United States 18 Buyer Distribution 19 Total Sales Volume - Major Metropolitan Cities 20 Office Trends - Average Price Per Square Foot 21 Office Trends - Average Cap Rates 22 Multihousing Trends - Primary vs. Secondary Markets 23 Multihousing Trends - Primary Market Pricing Matrix 24 Retail Trends - Primary vs. Secondary Markets 25 Retail Trends - Urbanization in Premier Markets 26 Hospitality Trends 27 Industrial Trends 28 Healthcare Trends 29 Development Site Trends 30 Cleveland Metro Area 31 Cleveland Metro Area Volume by Property Type 32 Ohio Major Metro Area Multihousing Metrics 33 Ohio Major Metro Area Office Metrics 34 Ohio Major Metro Area Industrial Metrics Cleveland Metro Area Office Trends - Average Price Per 35 Square Foot Cleveland Metro Area Industrial Trends Average Price Per 36 Square Foot 36 Debt Market Statistics 38 CMBS Issuance 39 CMBS Volume by Property Type 40 Debt Market Update 41 Commercial Mortgage Maturities 2

3 MARKET SUMMARY

4 EXECUTIVE OVERVIEW Market Following back-to-back historic years, demand for quality product remains strong despite slowing overall volume. International capital continues to be prevalent in the United States market with future investment mandates potentially shifting away from Europe. Cap rates in some markets have moved from compression to expansion. There are currently twenty five markets averaging at least $200 per square foot for office buildings, with eight averaging at least $400 per square foot. Financing Commercial and multihousing mortgage debt outstanding is expected to reach $2.9 trillion in 2016; more than three percent higher than at the end of MBA projects originations of commercial and multihousing mortgages will total $500 billion in 2016, roughly flat from the $504 billion originated in 2015 and down slightly from the record-high $508 billion originated in More than $1 trillion of commercial real estate debt is scheduled to mature between Legislation FIRPTA reform enacted to ease restrictions, allowing for additional foreign investment into the United States. PATH Act regulations will limit tax-free REIT spinoffs beyond traditional real estate companies. New Credit Risk Retention Rule takes effect December 24 th, EB5 extended, but is set to expire in September. 4

5 ECONOMIC DASHBOARD The Fed has been reducing its projection of the funds rate for the past four years as growth expectations have been tempered. June '12 June '13 June '14 June '15 June ' % 2.40% 2.20% 2.15% 2.00% 5.60% 5.60% 5.35% 5.10% 4.80% 1.65% 1.69% 2.00% 0.17% 1.07% 4.25% 4.00% 3.75% 3.75% 3.00% GDP Unemployment Rate CPI Inflation Federal Funds Rate * Consumer Price Index Inflation for 2016 is based on May data release. Source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, Newmark Grubb Knight Frank 5

6 GLOBAL YIELDS 10-Year Government Bonds vs. United States Cap Rates International Capital continues to flock to U.S. commercial real estate as cap rates offer significant upside to their local bond yields. 5.50% United States All Property Type Cap Rate Average = 5.2% 4.00% 2.50% 578 Bps 544 Bps 534 Bps 504 Bps 436 Bps 417 Bps 376 Bps United States 374 Bps South Korea 329 Bps Singapore 320 Bps Australia 232 Bps China United Kingdom Canada 1.00% Switzerland Japan Germany France -0.50% -2.00% Source: Newmark Grubb Knight Frank Research, Trading Economics 6

7 TOP REGIONAL BUYERS All Property Types; 12-Month Totals Blackstone continues to be one of the top two investors in each region following their large portfolio purchases from Hines and RioCan. West Southwest Midwest Southeast Mid-Atlantic Northeast Company $ Volume Company $ Volume Company $ Volume Company $ Volume Company $ Volume Company $ Volume Blackstone $10.5B Blackstone $3.1B Blackstone $1.6B Starwood Capital Group $3.7B Lone Star Funds $4.5B Blackstone $10.9B Invesco $1.9B Starwood Capital Group $2.5B ADIA $864M Blackstone $1.7B Blackstone $2.5B Ivanhoé Cambridge $6.4B TIAA $1.7B China Life Insurance $1.1B PSP Investments $859M CPP Investment Board $1.2B UDR $900M Qatar Investment Authority $3.8B Sun Communities $1.7B Global Logistics Properties $1.1B 601W Companies $842M ADIA $1.1B China Life Insurance $799M SL Green $2.9B CPP Investment Board $1.6B CPP Investment Board $977M Lone Star $749M PSP Investments $1.1B Global Logistics Properties $799M RXR Realty $2.8B Source: Newmark Grubb Knight Frank Research, Real Capital Analytics 7

8 PRICING HEAT MAP - OFFICE Price Per Square Foot There are currently twenty five markets averaging at least $200 per square foot for office buildings. Greater than $400 $201-$400 $100-$200 $100-$200 Office sales in eight United States metropolitan markets currently average more than $400 PSF: Manhattan, San Francisco, San Jose, Los Angeles, Boston, Washington D.C., Miami and Seattle. California has six markets averaging at least $200 per square foot for office buildings: San Francisco, San Jose, Los Angeles, Orange County, San Diego and East/North Bay. Source: Newmark Grubb Knight Frank Research, Real Capital Analytics 8

9 PEOPLE GRAVITATE, COMPANIES FOLLOW, CITIES PROSPER 18-Hour Cities NEW TECHNOLOGY SEATTLE Total Net Migration (Past 24 Months): 63, Population Growth Projections: 1.4%.. PORTLAND Total Net Migration (Past 24 Months): 35, Population Growth Projections: 1.3% DENVER Total Net Migration (Past 24 Months): 68, Population Growth Projections: 1.6%.. CHARLOTTE Total Net Migration (Past 24 Months): 63, Population Growth Projections: 1.9%.. Atlanta, Austin, Seattle Austin, Seattle Austin, Charlotte, Denver, Portland, Seattle Nashville Nashville Nashville Austin Denver, Portland, Seattle Atlanta, Seattle Austin, Charlotte, Denver, Portland, Seattle. Office Rental Growth (Past 12 Months) Investment Sales Vol Growth (Past 12 Months, All Types) UNITED STATES POPULATION GROWTH = 0.77% Total Net Migration - People (Past 24 Months) LEGEND AUSTIN Total Net Migration (Past 24 Months): 81, Population Growth Projections: 3% NASHVILLE Total Net Migration (Past 24 Months): 49, Population Growth Projections: 1.4% ATLANTA Total Net Migration (Past 24 Months): 111, Population Growth Projections: 1.9% Austin 6.1% 6.0% Atlanta 6.1% 15.6% Charlotte 4.2% 4.7% Denver 7.3% 28.1% Nashville 12.0% 2.6% Portland 10.2% 28.0% Seattle 5.2% 29.5% 9

10 INVESTMENT ACTIVITY INDEX United States Overall Rankings Markets showing the most strength are those influenced by technology companies and their youthful, creative employee base. RANK CITY RANK CITY RANK CITY RANK CITY 1 New York City 11 San Diego 21 Nashville 31 Salt Lake City 2 San Francisco 12 Austin 22 Baltimore 32 Westchester/Fairfield 3 Los Angeles 13 Orange County 23 Charlotte 33 San Antonio 4 Boston 14 Denver 24 Orlando 34 Detroit 5 Washington D.C. 15 Portland 25 Tampa/St. Petersburg 35 Kansas City 6 Chicago 16 Phoenix 26 Sacramento 36 Minneapolis/St. Paul 7 San Jose 17 Atlanta 27 Las Vegas 37 Pittsburgh 8 Seattle 18 Houston 28 Honolulu/Hawaii 38 Columbus 9 Miami 19 Philadelphia 29 Inland Empire 39 Jacksonville 10 Dallas/Fort Worth 20 Northern New Jersey 30 Raleigh/Durham 40 New Orleans Source: NGKF Research, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S. Census Bureau, Real Capital Analytics, Costar, National Association of Realtors 10

11 INVESTMENT ACTIVITY INDEX Top 10 Cities by Metric Investment Sales Volume Rank Billions New York City 1 $56.1 Los Angeles 2 $27.8 Chicago 3 $19.8 Boston 4 $19.0 Dallas/Fort Worth 5 $18.1 Atlanta 6 $15.2 Seattle 7 $14.3 San Francisco 8 $13.0 Denver 9 $12.6 Phoenix 10 $12.1 Office SF Under Construction Rank MSF New York City Dallas/Fort Worth San Jose Seattle Washington, D.C Chicago Houston San Francisco Boston Denver Median Home Price (YoY % Change) Rank % Detroit % Tampa/St. Petersburg % Portland % Orlando % New Orleans % Nashville 6 9.8% Dallas/Fort Worth 7 9.1% Denver 7 9.1% Seattle 9 8.7% San Diego % New Housing Units (YTD) Rank # of Units Dallas/Fort Worth K Houston K Atlanta K Washington, D.C K Phoenix K Nashville 6 9.7K Austin 7 8.8K Seattle 8 8.7K Orlando 9 8.6K Miami K Multihousing Cap Rates Rank Cap New York City 1 3.6% San Francisco 2 3.8% Los Angeles 3 4.2% San Jose 3 4.2% Boston 5 4.5% Northern New Jersey 5 4.5% Miami 7 4.6% San Diego 7 4.6% Sacramento 7 4.6% Chicago % Retail Absorption (2Q) Rank MSF Dallas/Fort Worth Chicago 2.96 Tampa 3.82 Phoenix 4.77 Los Angeles 4.69 Denver 6.68 Baltimore 7.64 Cleveland 8.55 Atlanta 9.54 San Antonio Office Absorption (2Q) Rank MSF Minneapolis/St. Paul 1.90 San Jose 2.87 Dallas/Fort Worth 3.85 Chicago 4.75 Kansas City 4.75 San Francisco 6.61 Salt Lake City 7.60 St. Louis 8.59 Los Angeles 9.58 Washington, D.C Office Cap Rates Rank Cap San Francisco 1 4.3% New York City 2 4.4% Boston 3 4.9% Washington, D.C % Seattle 5 5.1% San Jose 6 5.2% Miami 7 5.3% Los Angeles 8 5.4% Orange County 9 5.5% San Diego % Hotel Cap Rates Rank Cap New York City 1 4.7% Honolulu 2 5.0% Miami 3 5.8% Las Vegas 4 6.0% San Francisco 5 6.1% Washington, D.C % Boston 7 6.6% San Diego 8 6.7% Orange County 8 6.7% Salt Lake City % Retail Cap Rates Rank Cap New York City 1 4.0% Miami 2 4.2% San Francisco 3 4.4% Washington, D.C % Orange County 4 5.0% Los Angeles 6 5.3% San Diego 6 5.3% San Jose 8 5.4% Inland Empire 8 5.4% Boston % Retail Rents Rank $ New York City 1 $86.10 San Francisco 2 $37.92 Honolulu 3 $34.32 Miami 4 $32.62 San Jose 5 $30.49 Los Angeles 6 $27.51 Washington, D.C. 7 $26.13 Orange County 8 $25.29 Westchester/Fairfield 9 $23.18 San Diego 10 $22.41 Office Rents Rank $ New York City 1 $75.92 San Francisco 2 $54.71 San Jose 3 $40.46 Los Angeles 4 $36.86 Washington, D.C. 5 $36.21 Boston 6 $35.69 Miami 7 $32.98 Austin 8 $32.19 Seattle 9 $31.69 San Diego 10 $31.17 Office $/SF Rank $/SF New York City 1 $1,062 San Francisco 2 $805 Boston 3 $715 San Jose 4 $650 Washington, D.C. 5 $610 Los Angeles 6 $535 Seattle 7 $469 Miami 8 $405 Memphis 9 $387 Austin 10 $350 Hotel $/Unit Rank $/Room New York City 1 $658K San Jose 2 $501K San Francisco 3 $485K Washington, D.C. 4 $481K Boston 5 $479K Miami 6 $449K Honolulu 7 $348K Orange County 8 $308K Philadelphia 9 $289K Portland 10 $287K Retail $/SF Rank $/SF New York City 1 $2,630 Miami 2 $1,507 Washington, D.C. 3 $1,102 San Francisco 4 $908 Los Angeles 5 $824 Honolulu 6 $796 Boston 7 $582 Chicago 8 $525 San Jose 9 $441 Nashville 10 $414 Source: NGKF Research, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S. Census Bureau, Real Capital Analytics, Costar, National Association of Realtors 11

12 INVESTMENT ACTIVITY INDEX Ranking Matrix Rank Property Type Sales (All) Office Caps Office $/SF Retail Caps Retail $/SF Hotel Caps Hotel $/Unit Multihousing Caps Office U/C SF Office Absorption Retail Absorption Home Sale % Change New Housing Units Office Rents Retail Rents New York City 1 San Francisco 2 Los Angeles 3 Boston 4 Washington, D.C. 5 Chicago 6 San Jose 7 Seattle 8 Miami 9 Dallas/Fort Worth 10 San Diego 11 Austin 12 Orange County, CA 13 Denver 14 Portland, OR 15 Phoenix 16 Atlanta 17 Houston 18 Philadelphia 19 Northern New Jersey 20 Nashville 21 Baltimore 22 Charlotte 23 Orlando 24 Tampa/St. Petersburg 25 Sacramento 26 Las Vegas 27 Honolulu/Hawaii 28 Inland Empire 29 Raleigh/Durham 30 Salt Lake City 31 Westchester/Fairfield 32 San Antonio 33 Detroit 34 Kansas City 35 Minneapolis/St. Paul 36 Pittsburgh 37 Columbus 38 Jacksonville 39 New Orleans 40 RANKED CITY #1-10 RANKED CITY #11-20 RANKED CITY #21-30 RANKED CITY #31-40 Source: NGKF Research, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S. Census Bureau, Real Capital Analytics, Costar, National Association of Realtors 12

13 CAPITAL MARKETS ANALYSIS

14 GLOBAL CAPITAL 12-Month Totals; All Property Types There has been $315 billion of capital invested around the world over the past twelve months. Top Countries of Origin Top Market Destinations United States $57.9 London $26.0 Canada $42.3 Manhattan $24.5 Hong Kong $36.6 Sydney $7.5 Billions China United Kingdom $20.8 $28.4 Billions Paris Shanghai $7.1 $6.7 Singapore $19.6 Los Angeles $5.7 Germany $16.8 Madrid $5.6 Qatar $9.4 Berlin $5.6 South Korea $9.1 Singapore $4.7 Source: Newmark Grubb Knight Frank Research, Real Capital Analytics 14

15 GLOBAL OUTBOUND UNITED STATES CAPITAL The U.K. will likely see a capital investment decline in the short-term, potentially leading to additional post-brexit activity in the U.S. $650.0M Invested in CANADA over the past 12 months with 84% going to Toronto. $521.0M Invested in LATIN AMERICA over the past 12 months, more than half of the capital invested a year earlier. $2.7B Invested in the NORDICS over the past 12 months. (Blackstone - top investor, $1.1B). $24.0B Invested over the past year in the UNITED KINGDOM and GERMANY with significant investments from Blackstone and Simon Property Group. $1.0B Invested in CHINA over the past 12 months following more than $8.0B between $4.2B Invested in AUSTRALIA over the past 12 months. (Blackstone-lead investor, $1.7B). 15

16 INTERNATIONAL CAPITAL DISTRIBUTION United States; Year-to-Date; All Property Types Of the Chinese firms that have made United States investments in 2016, half were new entrants to the market. INVESTED CAPITAL $500+ MILLION Caisse de Depot Anbang Insurance Group Brookfield AM GIC (Government of Singapore) Qatar Investment Authority CPP Investment Board China Life Insurance ADIA PSP Investments Allianz Union Investment Norges Bank China Investment Corp Mirae Asset Chelsfield Olyan Group Jamestown Global Holdings HNA Group China Oceanwide Holdings Fimalac Investcorp GLL RE Partners Canada China Canada Singapore Qatar Canada China UAE Canada Germany Germany Norway China South Korea United Kingdom Saudi Arabia Germany Israel China China France Bahrain Germany $1 B+ $500 M - $999 M International Investment Source: Newmark Grubb Knight Frank Research, Real Capital Analytics 16

17 INTERNATIONAL CAPITAL INVESTMENT United States; Year-to-Date; All Property Types 56.4% of the foreign capital invested in US real estate during the first two quarters of 2016 went into properties located within the six major markets. Origin of Capital Top Five Countries by Year RANK YTD VOLUME (B) Seattle 2.2% Boston 3.3% New York City 28.1%. 1 China $ Canada $ Germany $ South Korea $ Saudi Arabia $1.11 Global Total $34.0 San Francisco 8.3% Los Angeles 5.9% Orange County 2.5% San Diego 3.9% Phoenix 2.5% Denver 1.0% Austin 1.7% Dallas 1.3% Chicago 6.9% Atlanta 1.3% D.C. Metro 3.9% Miami 3.3% RANK 2015 $81.5B 2014 $47.4B 2013 $37.5B 1 Canada Canada Canada 2 Singapore China China 3 China Norway Singapore 4 Norway Japan Israel 5 UAE Germany Germany RANK 2012 $27.9B 2011 $24.6B 2010 $12.3B 1 Canada Canada Canada 2 Germany Switzerland Israel 3 Switzerland Germany UK Other Cities 22.6% 4 UK Israel China 5 Israel South Korea Germany Source: Newmark Grubb Knight Frank Research, Real Capital Analytics 17

18 BUYER DISTRIBUTION United States; By Year and Market Tier International Capital continues to prefer gateway markets, while REITs invested more heavily in secondary and tertiary markets despite an overall decline in activity. 100% 80% 8.6% 10.1% 10.7% 6.5% 5.3% 5.5% 16.9% 4.3% 12.0% 8.0% 100% 80% 15.7% 9.6% 8.4% 5.8% 11.4% 9.9% 28.5% 24.2% 22.7% 25.2% 29.3% 30.9% 19.4% 60% 60% 30.6% 40% 20% 41.4% 41.5% 42.9% 40.7% 42.3% 40% 20% 38.0% 45.5% 47.2% 0% 18.9% 15.0% 18.2% 12.9% 8.4% YTD 0% 6.2% 9.5% 12.1% Primary Secondary Tertiary Public/REITs Private Institutional User/Other International Public/REITs Private Institutional User/Other International Source: Newmark Grubb Knight Frank Research, Real Capital Analytics 18

19 TOTAL SALES VOLUME Major Metropolitan Cities; 12-Month Totals; All Property Types Total sales volume in the United States is 4.9% lower than one year ago with declining activity in more than half of the top 20 markets. $60 New York City = $68.5 Billion $50 $56.0 $59.7 $40 Bay Area = $31.4 Billion Billions $30 $20 $10 $0 $27.7 $19.7 $20.7 $19.0 $17.4 $15.0 $14.3 $13.7 Manhattan $29.3 $21.4 $20.5 $16.2 $18.7 $16.0 $12.4 $16.3 $12.5 $13.3 $12.5 $9.8 $12.1 $9.7 $10.7 $9.0 $10.5 $11.2 $10.1 $7.7 $8.8 $13.2 $8.0 $8.2 $8.0 $7.2 $7.2 $7.2 $7.0 $5.5 Los Angeles Chicago D.C. Metro Boston Dallas Atlanta Seattle San Francisco *NYC Boroughs Denver Phoenix Northern NJ San Jose San Diego Houston Miami Orange County East Bay Austin * Includes Brooklyn, Queens, Bronx, Staten Island and Long Island Source: Newmark Grubb Knight Frank Research, Real Capital Analytics Current One Year Ago 19

20 OFFICE TRENDS Average Price Per Square Foot; Institutional Quality Prices in major markets continued to climb in the second quarter, albeit at a slower pace than previous quarters. $400 $1,250 $350 $349 $1,000 $1,062 $314 $300 $750 $805 $250 $200 $186 [10-Year Average = $280 PSF] $500 $250 $715 $650 $610 $535 $469 $405 $350 $349 $326 $319 $307 $305 $258 $150 $0 United States 10-Year Average Source: Newmark Grubb Knight Frank Research, Real Capital Analytics Manhattan San Francisco Boston San Jose Washington D.C. Los Angeles Seattle Miami Austin United States San Diego Portland Denver Orange County Chicago 20

21 OFFICE TRENDS Average Cap Rate; Institutional Quality Cap rates in some United States cities have begun to expand after several years of compression. 8% 7% 7.6% 6% 4.9% 4.9% 5.1% 5.2% 5.3% 5.4% 5.5% 5.7% 5.7% 5.8% 5.9% 6.0% 4% 4.4% 4.4% 6% [10-Year Average = 5.8%] 5.7% 2% 5% 5.0% 4% United States 10-Year Average Source: Newmark Grubb Knight Frank Research, Real Capital Analytics 0% Manhattan San Francisco Washington, DC Boston Seattle San Jose Miami Los Angeles Orange County United States San Diego Denver Atlanta Chicago 21

22 MULTIHOUSING TRENDS United States: Primary and Secondary Markets On a price per unit basis, secondary markets have grown 11.9%, year-over-year compared to 2.3% in primary markets. Cap Rates Price Per Unit 7% $350,000 $300,000 $306,916 6% $250,000 $200, % $150,000 $143,284 5% $100, % $50,000 4% $ Primary Markets Secondary Markets Primary Markets Secondary Markets Source: Newmark Grubb Knight Frank Research, Real Capital Analytics 22

23 MULTIHOUSING TRENDS Primary Market Pricing Matrix Cap rates in the six major markets continue to compress year-over-year, while per unit pricing remains relatively flat. $700,000 $600,000 San Francisco 2Q16 2Q15 Price Per Unit $500,000 $400,000 $300,000 Manhattan Manhattan Los Angeles San Francisco Los Angeles Boston Boston Washington DC Washington DC $200,000 Chicago Chicago $100,000 $0 3.5% 4.0% 4.5% 5.0% 5.5% Cap Rate Source: Newmark Grubb Knight Frank Research, Real Capital Analytics 23

24 RETAIL TRENDS United States: Primary Markets vs. Secondary Markets Year-over-year cap rates in primary markets have expanded by 40 basis points, while yields in secondary markets have compressed 10 basis points. Cap Rates Price Per Square Foot 9% $600 8% $500 $ $400 7% $300 6% 5.9% $ $200 5% 5.3% $100 4% $ Primary Markets Secondary Markets Primary Markets Secondary Markets Source: Newmark Grubb Knight Frank Research, Real Capital Analytics 24

25 RETAIL TRENDS Urbanization In Premier Markets BOSTON LOS ANGELES MANHATTAN MIAMI SAN FRANCISCO The retail landscape in Boston is expanding. Landlords are starting to want more unique retailers as well as pop-up tenants to add to the experience of the property. Downtown Los Angeles has over 300,000 square feet of retail space now under construction, creating new opportunities for tenants and landlords. Manhattan has had a recent burst of activity in casual dining restaurants. With the demand of new eateries, landlords are trying to appeal to both office and residential tenants. The influx of Millennials to Downtown Miami has brought many restaurants and retailers to the area; forecasting great opportunities in the future. San Francisco real estate has become popular for both domestic and international buyers; rents continue to climb while interest rates remain relatively low. $590 $/SF 22.2% 3-YEAR $/SF GROWTH $713 $/SF 22.3% 3-YEAR $/SF GROWTH $2,419 $/SF 46.8% 3-YEAR $/SF GROWTH $1,060 $/SF 61.8% 3-YEAR $/SF GROWTH $908 $/SF 43.7% 3-YEAR $/SF GROWTH Source: Newmark Grubb Knight Frank Research, Real Capital Analytics 25

26 HOSPITALITY TRENDS United States United States RevPAR continues to increase albeit at a slower acceleration than last year. $130 70% 10% $120 $ % $ % 65% 0% 2.9% $100 60% -5% $90-10% 55% $80-15% $ YTD ADR Occupancy 50% -20% YTD RevPAR Percentage Change *Data is annualized, 2016 is trailing 12 months as of May. Source: Newmark Grubb Knight Frank Research, Smith Travel Research 26

27 INDUSTRIAL TRENDS United States Pricing remains in a range just below the historical peak with recent volume tied to portfolio sales and activity near the primary markets (LA, NY, Seattle). Price Per Square Foot Largest United States Container Ports (TEU s) $ $200 $ $150 $100 $107 Millions $ $ Primary Markets Secondary Markets Source: Newmark Grubb Knight Frank Research, Real Capital Analytics, AAPA survey 0 Los Angeles Long Beach New York/Jersey Savannah Seattle Hampton Roads Oakland Houston Charleston Honolulu 27

28 HEALTHCARE TRENDS Medical Office Building Spotlight Medical office has proven more resilient than most asset types with an average vacancy rate of 10% since $300 9% 21.0% 6 Cap rates fell to 7.0% in 2Q16 while $250 8% 20.0% $ % 5 the average price per square foot increased to $250. Medical office building transactions 7% exceeded $11 billion in 2015, a 13% $200 $150 6% 5% 19.0% 18.0% $2.298 $ % $ % 4 3 increase year-over-year. Healthcare has been the largest and fastest growing component of the national GDP, expected to comprise a 20% share of production by 2022 $100 4% 2 Healthcare occupations are projected to have the fastest $50 3% 17.0% 1 employment growth between 2014 and 2024, adding 2.3 million jobs, or roughly 1 in 4 new jobs. $0 2% % 16.4% Price Per Square Foot Cap Rates Expenditures (Trillions) % of GDP Source: Newmark Knight Frank Research, Real Capital Analytics 28

29 DEVELOPMENT SITE TRENDS Sales Volume: Primary Markets vs. Secondary Markets Resistance to pricing as well as a healthy pipeline of development activity has led to a pullback in sales volume. $8 $4 $7 $6 $3 $5 Billions $4 $2 Billions $3 $2 $1 $1 $0 $ Primary Markets Secondary Markets Source: Newmark Grubb Knight Frank Research, Real Capital Analytics 29

30 CLEVELAND METRO AREA

31 SALES VOLUME BY PROPERTY TYPE CLEVELAND METRO; 12-MONTH TOTALS Retail and multihousing properties sales have increased 30% and 25% respectively in 2Q16. Warehouse / Flex 23.3% Retail 30.3% Office 19.8% Hotel 7.5% Multihousing 22.5% Property Type Volume # of Properties Office $220.8M 30 Multihousing $212.3M 20 Hotel $84.1M 11 Retail $338.0M 33 Warehouse/Flex $259.9M 36 Totals $1.15B 130 * Percentages based on total volume Source: Newmark Grubb Knight Frank Research, Real Capital Analytics 31

32 MULTIHOUSING METRICS OHIO MAJOR METRO AREA; 12-MONTH TOTALS Cleveland Cleveland Average Cap Rate 7.6% Average Price Per Unit $33,373 Columbus Average Cap Rate 7.2% Average Price Per Unit $57, Month Sales Volume $212.3M Average Price Per SF $554.3M Columbus Cincinnati Average Cap Rate 7.2% Average Price Per Unit $49,776 Cincinnati 12 Month Sales Volume $214.2M Source: Newmark Grubb Knight Frank Research, Real Capital Analytics 32

33 OFFICE METRICS OHIO MAJOR METRO AREA; 12-MONTH TOTALS Cleveland Cleveland Average Cap Rate 8.5% Average Price Per SF $93 Columbus Average Cap Rate 7.2% Average Price Per SF $ Month Sales Volume $220.8M Average Price Per SF $250.1M Columbus Cincinnati Average Cap Rate 7.4% Average Price Per SF $100 Cincinnati 12 Month Sales Volume $528.3M Source: Newmark Grubb Knight Frank Research, Real Capital Analytics 33

34 INDUSTRIAL METRICS OHIO MAJOR METRO AREA; 12-MONTH TOTALS Cleveland Cleveland Average Cap Rate 7.4% Average Price Per SF $50 Columbus Average Cap Rate 7.4% Average Price Per SF $40 12 Month Sales Volume $259.9M Average Price Per SF $760.6M Columbus Cincinnati Average Cap Rate 9.5% Average Price Per SF $43 Cincinnati 12 Month Sales Volume $423.0M Source: Newmark Grubb Knight Frank Research, Real Capital Analytics 34

35 OFFICE TRENDS Cleveland Metro Average Price Per Square Foot; Institutional Quality Prices continued to climb in the second quarter, surpassing the 10-year average of $84/SF. $180 $150 $157 $120 $90 $93 $60 $30 $31 $ Cleveland 10-Year Average Source: Newmark Grubb Knight Frank Research, Real Capital Analytics 35

36 INDUSTRIAL TRENDS Cleveland Metro Average Price Per Square Foot; Institutional Quality Prices bottomed out in 2012 and hit a 10-year high in Prices have declined the past three quarters. $90 $75 $60 $63 $45 $50 $30 $15 $16 $ Cleveland 10-Year Average Source: Newmark Grubb Knight Frank Research, Real Capital Analytics 36

37 DEBT MARKET STATISTICS

38 CMBS ISSUANCE United States CMBS issuance totaled $30.7 billion through the first half of 2016, down 43.7% compared to $54.5 billion through the first half of $250 $228.6 $200 $198.4 Billions $150 $100 $50 $92.6 $166.5 $32.7 $48.4 $86.1 $94.1 $101.0 CMBS ISSUANCE Early projections called for the market to reach nearly $125 billion for the year. However, those forecasts have been adjusted to approximately $70 billion after a volatile first half of the year. $30.7 $0 $12.1 $11.6 $ YTD Source: Newmark Grubb Knight Frank Research, Commercial Mortgage Alert 38

39 CMBS VOLUME Top Markets by Property Type The office and multihousing sectors continue to attract the highest volume of CMBS loans, with gateway markets the preferred destination. Office Multihousing Retail Hotel Industrial New York $2.5 B Los Angeles $1.1 B New York $628 M New York $195 M San Diego $22 M San Francisco $476 M Denver $924 M Las Vegas $359 M Los Angeles $129 M Des Moines $18 M Boston $454 M San Francisco $675 M Boston $202 M New York $125 M Anchorage $16 M San Diego $424 M Dallas $533 M Norfolk $175 M Houston $100 M Miami $13 M Washington, D.C. $265 M Chicago $430 M Washington, D.C. $104 M Nashville $80 M Columbia (SC) $12 M Source: Newmark Grubb Knight Frank Research, Trepp 39

40 DEBT MARKET UPDATE Commercial and Multihousing Mortgage Debt Outstanding Total commercial and multihousing debt outstanding rose to $2.86 trillion, up 1.7% quarter-over-quarter. Current One Year Ago Commercial banks increased their mortgage debt over the past year. They continue to hold the largest Agency & GSE 16.5% Agency & GSE 15.7% share of the outstanding commercial and multihousing mortgage debt, currently at $1.1 trillion, an increase Others 13.4% Banks 38.6% Others 14.2% Banks 36.7% of $118.6 billion, or 12.0%, yearover-year. Multihousing mortgage debt outstanding grew by $18.2 billion quarter-over-quarter, with Agency and GSE increasing their debt Life Insurance 13.9% Life Insurance 13.5% outstanding by $11.3 billion, or 2.5%. CMBS 17.6% CMBS 19.9% Source: Newmark Grubb Knight Frank Research, Mortgage Bankers Association 40

41 COMMERCIAL MORTGAGE MATURITIES United States $400 Over the next 24 months, there will be approximately $750 million of commercial mortgages maturing Bank: $133B CMBS: $104B Insurance: $26B Other*: $90B $350 $300 $250 $200 $150 $100 $50 $84 $24 $78 $187 $85 $24 $96 $159 $100 $90 $27 $26 $136 $104 $133 $135 $106 $27 $48 $151 $103 $27 $38 $171 $94 $86 $28 $29 $35 $27 $188 $181 $75 $27 $33 $149 *Includes Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, bridge loans and hard money loans $65 $25 $12 $106 $57 $25 $27 $72 $ Bank CMBS Insurance Companies Other Source: Newmark Grubb Knight Frank Research, Trepp with Federal Reserve Flow of Funds Data 41

42 RESEARCH New York City HEADQUARTERS 125 Park Avenue New York, NY Jonathan Mazur Managing Director, Research Gar Heintzelman Research Manager Michael Wolfson Research Analyst - Multihousing mwolfson@ngkf.com Joshua Manning Research Analyst - Office & Industrial jmanning@ngkf.com Jessica Greene Research Analyst - Retail jgreene@ngkf.com North America Canada United States Europe Austria Belgium Czech Republic France Germany Ireland Italy Netherlands Poland Portugal Romania Russia Spain Switzerland United Kingdom Latin America Argentina Brazil Chile Colombia Costa Rica Dominican Republic Mexico Peru Puerto Rico Asia-Pacific Australia Cambodia China Hong Kong India Indonesia Japan Malaysia New Zealand Singapore South Korea Taiwan Thailand Africa Botswana Kenya Malawi Nigeria South Africa Tanzania Uganda Zambia Zimbabwe Middle East Saudi Arabia United Arab Emirates Newmark Grubb Knight Frank has implemented a proprietary database and our tracking methodology has been revised. With this expansion and refinement in our data, there may be adjustments in historical statistics including availability, asking rents, absorption and effective rents. Newmark Grubb Knight Frank Research Reports are also available at All information contained in this publication is derived from sources that are deemed to be reliable. However, Newmark Grubb Knight Frank (NGKF) has not verified any such information, and the same constitutes the statements and representations only of the source thereof, and not of NGKF. Any recipient of this publication should independently verify such information and all other information that may be material to any decision that recipient may make in response to this publication, and should consult with professionals of the recipient s choice with regard to all aspects of that decision, including its legal, financial, and tax aspects and implications. Any recipient of this publication may not, without the prior written approval of NGKF, distribute, disseminate, publish, transmit, copy, broadcast, upload, download, or in any other way reproduce this publication or any of the information it contains.