Gore Inches Closer, But Bush Still Leads

Transcription

1 ABC NEWS/WASHINGTON POST POLL: DEM. CONVENTION OPENER - 8/10/00 EMBARGO: 6:30 P.M. BROADCAST, 9 P.M. PRINT/WEB, Friday, Aug. 11, 2000 Gore Inches Closer, But Bush Still Leads Al Gore has inched closer in the presidential race since selecting Joseph Lieberman as his running mate, but his advance doesn't quite match George W. Bush's after he named Dick Cheney last month. Bush still holds a nine-point lead among registered voters. The shift marks the end of Bush's convention bounce and presumably the start of Gore's. But while response to the Lieberman selection is positive, Gore faces big hurdles. For one, his leadership ratings have not moved, and remain 20 points below Bush's. And Clinton fatigue continues to tie Gore's shoelaces. Voters who like Bill Clinton's policies are a natural support group for Gore. But among those who dislike Clinton personally even though they favor his policies fully half defect to Bush. Indeed, Lieberman's most positive attribute in this ABC News/Washington Post poll is his early criticism of Clinton for the Monica Lewinsky scandal ABC News/Washington Post Polls: The 2000 Election Results since 1/00 - among registered voters 50 Bush 45 Gore Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun July July Aug

2 Gore in Los Angeles likely will lay claim to Clinton's mantle of economic stewardship. But Bush currently holds a nine-point edge over Gore in public trust to handle the economy. And Bush leads by 11 points when it comes to encouraging moral standards and values, an area in which it's been suggested Lieberman might help level the field. Gore's selection of Lieberman has helped solidify his support among those who already back him. And Gore has moved into a lead in Lieberman's home turf, the East, although he continues to trail in the rest of the country. THE RACE - Bush leads Gore by percent among registered voters. (Lieberman was selected Monday. Interviews for this poll, conducted Tuesday through Thursday, showed no significant night-to-night variance.) Bush moved from a three-point edge in mid-july to an 11-point advantage just before his convention and a 14-point lead just after it. This convention bounce was about usual for an out-of-power party's candidate. Gore's convention starts Monday. Bush Gore Gap 8/10/00 52% (Gore picks Lieberman) 8/6/ (Republican convention) 7/29/ (Bush picks Cheney) 7/23/ FOUR-WAY - The four-way match-up is similar. Bush leads Gore by 48 to 40 percent with Ralph Nader getting five percent. Pat Buchanan has managed something of a reverse bounce during the apparent implosion of the Reform Party: His support is just two percent, down from a peak of six percent and its lowest in ABC/Post polls this year. Narrowing the contest to adults who seem most likely to vote makes little difference; it's percent in the two-way race and percent in the four-way. STRENGTH, and STRENGTH - Gore's biggest improvement in this poll is in strengthening his support. Seventy-two percent of his backers now say they're strongly behind him, up smartly since July 23. But Bush's support is equally strong. Support candidate strongly: Gore Bush supporters supporters 8/10/00 72% 72 7/23/ Strength of leadership is a different matter. Only 47 percent think Gore is a strong leader, about where it's been for the last few months. Bush's leadership rating, on the other hand,

3 has bumped up to 67 percent since his convention. Addressing this gap will be a critical task for Gore in Los Angeles. Strong leader? Gore Bush Yes No Yes No 8/10/00 47% 48 67% 29 7/23/ VEEPS - Gore's selection of Lieberman gets a thumbs-up from the public, even if it hasn't dramatically altered the bottom line. Fifty-three percent say it makes them view Gore more favorably, while only 17 percent respond unfavorably. Favorable views of Bush's selection of Cheney are about the same, but negative reaction is slightly higher. Fifty-one percent see the fact that Lieberman is an Orthodox Jew as a positive attribute; 16 percent respond unfavorably. And there's a 64 percent favorable response to Lieberman's support of a limited test of school vouchers, including 59 percent among Democrats. Lieberman's weakest attribute of those tested in this poll is his Senate vote to keep lateterm or "partial-birth" abortions legal; 57 percent respond unfavorably. On the other hand a whopping 75 percent respond favorably to his early criticism of Clinton in the Lewinsky scandal. CLINTON FATIGUE Unhappiness with Bill Clinton on a personal level continues unabated, and it's a serious drag on Gore. Nearly half the public thinks Gore is "too close to Clinton to provide the fresh start the country needs," essentially unchanged in the last year. Fewer express concern about Bush's connection to the administration of his father, former President Bush. Agree Disagree Gore too close to Clinton 47% 50 Bush too close to father's admin The Tale of Two Clintons clearly continues: Sixty-one percent of registered voters have a favorable impression of Clinton's policies, but only 34 percent think favorably of him as a person. People who dislike Clinton's policies are a natural support group for Bush, and indeed they support him overwhelmingly. In turn, those who like Clinton's policies should be a natural Gore group but it doesn't quite work out that way. People who like Clinton's policies and like Clinton personally 29 percent of registered voters are a strong Gore group. But people who like Clinton's policies but dislike him personally 28 percent of voters split evenly between Gore and Bush. Gore needs to win that group.

4 Like Clinton and Don t like Clinton Don t like Clinton his policies or his policies but like his policies Size of group 29% preference: Gore 78% 9% 49% Bush Democrat Republican Independent vote: Clinton Dole Perot MORE SWING - Bush maintains his strong lead among independents, the key swing voter group, where he leads Gore by 21 points. Bush also has a slimmer percent advantage among moderates, a group that has swung between the two candidates this year. The candidates run evenly among women, another group that's switched between Gore and Bush during the course of the campaign. And Bush has a slim five-point lead among white women; they supported the Clinton-Gore ticket by five points in Men haven't swung; they continue to support Bush by a wide margin, percent. Among white men, a reliably Republican group, it's a percent Bush lead. Bush and Gore are tied among white Catholics, a key swing group that supported the Clinton-Gore ticket in 1992 and 1996 alike. Gore has improved his standing in the East, where he now leads Bush percent. Bush has a double-digit lead in the rest of the country. Bush Gore Gap Independents 57% Moderates White Catholics Women Men East Midwest South West

5 METHODOLOGY This ABC News/Washington Post poll was conducted by telephone Aug 8-10, 2000, among a random national sample of 876 registered voters. The results have a 3.5-point error margin. Field work by TNS Intersearch of Horsham, Pa. Analysis by Daniel Merkle. ABC News polls can be found at ABCNEWS.com on the Internet, at: Here are the full results (*= less than 0.5 percent): 1. How closely are you following the 2000 presidential race: very closely, somewhat closely, not too closely, or not closely at all? Very Somewhat Not too Not closely No closely closely closely at all opin. 8/10/ * 2. I'd like you to rate the chances that you will vote in the 2000 presidential election in November: Are you absolutely certain to vote, will you probably vote, are the chances 50-50, or less than that? Don t think Certain Probably Chances Less than will vote No to vote vote 50/50 50/50 (vol.) opin. 8/10/ * 3. If the election for president in November 2000 were being held today, and the candidates were (Al Gore and Joseph Lieberman, the Democrats), and (George W. Bush and Dick Cheney, the Republicans), for whom would you vote? Net Leaned Vote, Neither Other Wouldn't No Gore Bush (vol.) (vol.) vote (vol.) opin. 8/10/00* /6/ * 1 2 7/29/ /23/ * 1 2 6/11/ * 1 2 5/10/ * 1 3 4/2/ * 2 2 3/11/ /27/ /6/ * 2 1 1/16/ /15/ * /31/ * 1 2 *Added v.p. names Net Leaned Vote, Likely Voters: Neither Other Wouldn't No Gore Bush (vol.) (vol.) vote (vol.) opin. 8/10/00* * * 1 8/6/ * * 2 7/29/ * 1 7/23/ * 1 1 6/11/ * 0 2 5/10/ * 2 4/2/ * 2

6 3/11/ * 1 2/27/ /6/ * 2 * 1/16/ *Added v.p. names 4. Do you support (Gore/Bush) strongly, or not strongly? Gore Bush Strngly Not No opin. Strngly Not No opin. 8/10/ /23/ /23/ /27/ /6/ /16/ /15/ /31/99* * /2/ /14/ * *10/99 and previous: "strongly or only somewhat" 5. How about if the candidates were (Al Gore, the Democrat), (George W. Bush, the Republican), (Pat Buchanan, the Reform Party candidate) and (Ralph Nader, the Green Party candidate), for whom would you vote? Net Leaned Vote, None Other Wouldn't No Gore Bush Buchanan Nader (vol.) (vol.) vote (vol.) op. 8/10/ /6/ * 1 2 7/29/ /23/ * 1 1 6/11/ * 1 2 5/10/ Net Leaned Vote, Likely Voters: None Other Wouldn't No Gore Bush Buchanan Nader (vol.) (vol.) vote (vol.) op. 8/10/ * * * 1 8/6/ * 0 * 2 7/29/ * 1 7/23/ * 1 1 6/11/ * * 2 5/10/ * 2 6. Which presidential candidate, (Gore) or (Bush), do you trust to do a better job on each of those issues? First is (INSERT ITEM) 8/10/00 Both Neither No Gore Bush (vol.) (vol.) opin. A. Handling the national economy B. Encouraging high moral standards & values Trend: A. Handling the national economy

7 Both Neither No Gore Bush (vol.) (vol.) opin. 8/10/ /23/ /23/ /11/ /2/ /11/ /31/ B. Encouraging high moral standards & values Both Neither No Gore Bush (vol.) (vol.) opin. 8/10/ /23/ /23/ /2/ Please tell me whether the following statement applies to (Gore/Bush), or not: He is a strong leader Gore Bush Yes No No op. Yes No No op. 8/10/ /23/ /23/ /11/ /2/ /11/ /27/ /6/ /16/ /15/ /31/ /2/ /13/ NA NA NA 3/14/ As you may know, Gore has picked Joseph Lieberman as his vice presidential running-mate. Does the selection of Lieberman make you think more favorably or less favorably of Gore? (Is that much more or somewhat more favorably?; Is that somewhat less or much less favorably?) --More Favorably Less Favorably---- No diff. No NET More Smwht. NET Smwht. Much less (vol.) opin. 8/10/ As you may know, Bush has picked Dick Cheney as his vice presidential running-mate. Does the selection of Cheney make you think more favorably or less favorably of Bush? (Is that much more or somewhat more favorably?; Is that somewhat less or much less favorably?) --More Favorably Less Favorably---- No diff. No NET More Smwht. NET Smwht. Much less (vol.) opin. 8/10/

8 10. I m going to mention a few things about Lieberman. For each one please tell me if it makes you feel more favorable or less favorable toward him. 8/7/00: More Less No favorable favorable opin. A. He s an Orthodox Jew B. While a U.S. senator he voted to keep late-term or "partial birth" abortions legal C. He was the first Democrat in Congress to publicly criticize Bill Clinton for the Monica Lewinsky scandal D. He supported a limited test of school vouchers, which use tax money to help low-income parents pay for their children to attend private or religious schools Trend: A. He s an Orthodox Jew ----More Favorable Less Favorable---- No NET Much Somewhat NET Much Somewhat opinion 8/10/00 51 NA NA 16 NA NA 34 8/7/ B. While a U.S. senator he voted to keep late-term or "partial birth" abortions legal ----More Favorable Less Favorable---- No NET Much Somewhat NET Much Somewhat opinion 8/10/00 37 NA NA 57 NA NA 6 8/7/ C. He was the first Democrat in Congress to publicly criticize Bill Clinton for the Monica Lewinsky scandal ----More Favorable Less Favorable---- No NET Much Somewhat NET Much Somewhat opinion 8/10/00 75 NA NA 19 NA NA 7 8/7/ D. No trend. 11. Please tell me whether you agree or disagree with the following statement. How about (Read next statement): A. Al Gore is too close to Bill Clinton to provide the fresh start the country needs. (GET ANSWER THEN ASK: Do you feel that way strongly, or only somewhat?) Agree Disagree No NET Strngly Smewht NET Strngly Smewht opin. 8/10/

9 3/11/ /11/ /27/ /2/ B. George W. Bush is too close to the administration of his father, former President Bush, to provide the fresh start the country needs.(get ANSWER THEN ASK: Do you feel that way strongly, or only somewhat?) Agree Disagree No NET Strngly Smewht NET Strngly Smewht opin. 8/10/ Do you have a favorable or unfavorable impression of Clinton as a person? Favorable Unfavorable No opinion 8/10/ /15/ /26/ /15/ /2/ /14/ /4/ /15/98** /1/ /1/98 LV *Strongly/somewhat follow up asked 12/15/ Do you have a favorable or unfavorable impression of Bill Clinton s policies and programs? Favorable Unfavorable No opinion 8/10/ /15/ /15/ If you honestly assessed yourself, would you say that you have some negative feeling about Jews? Yes No No opin. 8/10/ Compare to: If you honestly assessed yourself, would you say that you have at least some feelings of prejudice against Jews? Yes No No opin. 8/7/ * ***END***