Preliminary estimates of Indonesian fertility based on the 1976 intercensal population survey

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1 Papers of the East-West Population Institute, no. 52 Preliminary estimates of Indonesian fertility based on the 1976 intercensal population survey Sam Suharto and Lee-Jay Cho T \7*S EAST-WEST CENTER HONOLULU HAWAII

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3 Preliminary estimates of Indonesian fertility based on the 1976 intercensal population survey Sam Suharto and Lee-Jay Cho Number 52 May 1978 PAPERS OF THE EAST-WEST POPULATION INSTITUTE

4 SAM SUHARTO is Director of the Data Processing Center, Central Bureau of Statistics. Indonesia. LEE-JAY CHO is Director of the East-West Population Institute, East-West Center, and Professor of Sociology at the University of Hawaii. Library of Congress Cataloging in Publication Data Suharto, Sam Preliminary estimates of Indonesian fertility based on the 1976 intercensal population survey. (Papers of the East-West Population Institute ; no. 52) "Presented at the Conference on Comparative Fertility Transition in Asia, held in Tokyo during March 1978." Bibliography: p Fertility. Human-Indonesia-Congresses. 2. Indonesia, 1976 Congresses. 3. Indonesia- Population-Congresses. I. Cho, Lee-Jay, joint author. II. Title. III. Series: East-West Population Institute. Papers of the East-West Population Institute ; no. 52. HB903.F4S T

5 CONTENTS Preface v Abstract 1 Background 1 Data collection 2 Estimates and evaluation Conclusion 18 References 21

6 iv TABLES AND FIGURES Tables 1 Number of households, by province, for the Intercensal Population Survey (SUPAS), Phases 1, II, and III 6 2 Age-specific fertility and total fertility rates for the urban and rural populations of Indonesia, by province or region: and Age-specific fertility and total fertility rates for the urban population of Indonesia, by province or region: Age-specific fertility and total fertility rates for the rural population of Indonesia, by province or region: Age-specific fertility and total fertility rates for the urban and rural populations of Indonesia, by province or region, estimated from SUPAS I: and Age-specific fertility and total fertility rates for the urban population of Indonesia, by province or region, estimated from SUPAS I: and Age-specific fertility and total fertility rates for the rural population of Indonesia, by province or region, estimated from SUPAS I: and Estimates of total fertility rates for Java and Bali based on the 1971 census, SUPAS Phase I (1976), and SUPAS Phase III (1976) 18 Figures 1 The 26 provinces of Indonesia: Levels of geographic division for Indonesian censuses and surveys 5 3 Scatter diagram of total fertility rate estimated from SUPAS I (1976) and the 1971 census: Indonesia,

7 V PREFACE The Indonesian Intercensal Population Survey (SUPAS*) was conducted in 1976 by the Central Bureau of Statistics, Government of Indonesia. This paper, presenting a preliminary analysis of the first stage of the survey, is the first in a series drawing on data from the three stages of the survey. In the absence of reliable indicators of recent fertility change, the preliminary fertility estimates presented here are intended to be indicative of recent levels and change in different regions-of Indonesia. The paper was presented at the Conference on Comparative Fertility Transition in Asia, held in Tokyo during March It is the result of a close collaborative effort between the Indonesian Central Bureau of Statistics (CBS) and the East-West Population Institute. Major support for the survey and analysis has come from the Office of Population, Agency for International Development. The Ford Foundation also provided support for the project. The authors acknowledge the work of the CBS personnel in conducting and processing the survey. Special thanks are due to Mr. M. Abdulmadjid, Director General, Central Bureau of Statistics, for his leadership and support in the conduct of SUPAS. The authors are grateful to Mr. Si Gde Made Mamas for his assistance and helpful comments in the preparation of the paper, and to Dr. Michael Levin and Ms. Judith Tom for their assistance in the computation of the fertility rates from SUPAS-I. Critical comments by Drs. Robert Retherford and Griffith Feeney are also appreciated. Survey Penduduk Antar Sensus.

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9 ABSTRACT This paper presents preliminary estimates of recent fertility levels and trends for Indonesia and its major geographical areas. The first stage of the 1976 Intercensal Population Survey (SUPAS-I) comprised a large enough sample to enable estimation of fertility at the provincial and regional levels using the own-children method. The fertility estimates from SUPAS-I for the period are compared with those based on the 1971 census for the same areas. Agreement between the estimates from two different sources of data is quite convincing, especially when applied to regional variations in the level of fertility. Some recent decline of fertility, particularly in Java and Bali, is indicated by the survey data BACKGROUND Current estimates of fertility, mortality, migration, and other demographic characteristics for Indonesia are based on information collected through population censuses and various surveys. Since Indonesia gained its independence in 1945, only two nationwide censuses have been conducted, in 1961 and again in Estimation of trends and levels of demographic features for the country as a whole, as well as for the geographic areas, is based primarily on the two censuses. Additional population statistics have been obtained from surveys conducted by the Central Bureau of Statistics and other research institutions or universities. During the 1960s, a number of sample surveys were undertaken by the Central Bureau of Statistics. Many of the survey results were not fully utilized, however, owing to limited processing equipment and data storage, which meant that retabulation of the data was not possible. Although the tabulated results do provide valuable information for estimating the components of population growth, some of the surveys were incomplete in geographical coverage while others limited the population to be studied to a particular segment, such as those engaged in some specific economic activity. As in most developing countries, vital registration has been practiced neither widely nor successfully 'throughout Indonesia. It is expected that estimation of rates and demographic measures will have to be based on census and survey data for some time in the future. The rapid social and economic changes in Indonesia in recent years call for more frequent monitoring of population characteristics. For

10 2 this reason, a mid-decade population survey was implemented in March 1976 to provide the government and the society with more reliable information about population trends. The Intercensal Population Survey, or the SUPAS, serves as a link between the 1971 and the forthcoming 1981 population censuses. The SUPAS, however, covered more information than is normally included in a population census. Because fewer households were enumerated, the data collection in this survey could be more intensive than in the census. The data collected for the SUPAS were aimed at achieving the following objectives: (a) to obtain detailed socioeconomic data for interregional comparisons, (b) to help estimate population trends in Indonesia, (c) to provide estimates of the labor force and information about manpower conditions and utilization, (d) to determine the validity of other sources of fertility and mortality estimates, (e) to provide several measures to assess the extent of family planning utilization, and (0 to participate in the efforts of the World Fertility Survey to establish world fertility trends. DATA COLLECTION The SUPAS was divided into three integrated, multipurpose phases to economize in the operation of the survey. Phase I involved a large household listing with selected information collected on all members of the household, including name, family relationship, sex, age, marital status, and own-mother status. This information allows for the computation of fertility estimates based on the own-children method for each area where the survey was conducted. The fertility estimates presented in this paper are based on the results of this phase. Phase I also supplied the information required for selecting samples for the subsequent phases. Phase II was designed to collect more detailed information from a subsample of selected respondents. This was the most comprehensive part of the undertaking; topics covered include individual characteristics of household members, marital and divorce history, own children, desire for additional children, contraceptive knowledge and practice, religion, education, household composition, income, work status and conditions, population movement, and fertility. Because Phase II was a subsample of Phase I, it was possible to apply the ratio estimation technique to obtain estimates of detailed population characteristics for smaller regions. Phase III was conducted in connection with the Indonesian family planning program and in line with the series of surveys done for the

11 3 World Fertility Survey (WFS). The questionnaire was adapted from the WFS core questionnaire, with some additional questions on family planning. The selection of samples for Java and Bali and for the rest of the country was made in different ways. Java, the most densely populated island in Indonesia, consists of five provinces with a total population of more than 76 million in Jakarta, the nation's capital, is considered a special province, and the others are West Java, Central Java, Yogyakarta, and East Java (see Figure 1). The island of Bali is one province. Indonesia's 26 provinces are divided into 281 regencies (kabupaten) and municipalities (kotamadya). Each regency and municipality consists of several subdistricts (kecamatan), and in each subdistrict there are several villages (see Figure 2). For the census and survey, each village was divided into several census blocks with approximately equal numbers of households. In Java, an urban census block contains between 30 and 70 households and a rural census block has 60 to 125 households; in Bali a census block includes 30 to 70 households for both urban and rural areas. The SUPAS was designed to provide subprovincial estimates; it is not possible, however, to produce estimates for the regency or municipality levels from the SUPAS data. Survey domains comprised two to seven regencies in each province, grouped together so that each domain represented a homogeneous sampling unit. In each province, all the municipalities were grouped together into one domain. In addition, to economize as much as possible, clusters were formed by grouping two or three census blocks within a village. Each cluster in rural areas of Java had about 200 households, whereas in other areas each cluster included about 100 households. A multistage sample was designed for Phase III, to produce provincial estimates. For rural areas ten subdistricts were selected from each domain in Java and 15 subdistricts were selected from each domain in Bali, with selection based on probability proportional to the size of the population. From each subdistrict one village was selected, again on the basis of probability proportional to population size; then a cluster was selected at random from each selected village. A sample of households, which had already been listed during Phase I of the survey, was then selected from each cluster. In the domains composed of municipalities, the selection of clusters from each domain was made in the same manner as for the rural areas; for urban areas of domains composed of regencies, a sample of urban

12 FIGURE 1 The 26 provinces of Indonesia: 1971 Province boundary <3 F.quator ct/ Australia 96 E I L. 1 Jakarta 2 West Java 3 Central Java 4 Yogyakarta 5 East Java 6 Bali 7 Aceh 8 North Sumatra 9 West Sumatra 10 Riau 11 Jambi 12 South Sumatra 13 Bengkulu 14 Lampung 15 North Sulawesi 16 Central Sulawesi 17 South Sulawesi 18 Southeast Sulawesi 19 West Kalimantan 20 Central Kalimantan 21 South Kalimantan 22 East Kalimantan 23 West Nusa Tenggara 24 East Nusa Tenggara 25 Maluku 26 Irian Jay a

13 5 FIGURE 2 Levels of geographic division for Indonesian censuses and surveys PROVINCE Regency Municipality Subdistrict Village Subdistrict Village block block Household Household villages was selected on the basis of probability proportional to the size of the population, and clusters were selected randomly. Then, as in the rural areas, households were selected from the household lists prepared during Phase I of the survey. The number of households selected for Phases I, II, and III of the survey are presented in Table 1. METHOD Fertility rates were estimated with the own-children method, which is a census- or survey-based reverse-survival technique for estimating agespecific fertility for periods prior to enumeration. Children living in the household and enumerated are first matched to mothers within households on the basis of answers to census questions on relation to head of household, age, sex, marital status, and number of children surviving or ever born. These own children thus matched are classified by age of children and that of mother, and are reverse-survived to estimate birth by age of mother for the previous years with certain adjustments for underenumeration and those children not surviving or not living with mothers. Depending on the kind of matching that is carried out, the denominator of women can either be reverse-survived or women surviving and enumerated at the time of the census serve as denominators. Age-specific fertility rates are estimated by dividing birth estimates by number of women. The own-children method and its application in the United States, South Korea, and Malaysia have been elaborated in.numerous publications (Grabill and Cho, 1965; Cho, Palmore, and Saunders, 1968; Cho and Hahm, 1968; Cho, Grabill, and Bogue, 1970;Cho, 1968, 1970, 1971a, 1971b, 1971c,.1973, 1975).

14 TABLE 1 Number of households, by province, for the Intercensal Population Survey (SUPAS), Phases I, II,and III Phase I Phase II Phase (12 Feb.-30 March 1976) (26 Feb.-30 March 1976) (1 April 31 May 1976) Province Urban Rural Total Urban Rural Total Urban Rural Total 1. Jakarta 9,000 na 9,000 3,000 na 3,000 1,500 na 1, West Java 8,700 36,000 44,700 3,000 5,334 8, ,782 2, Central Java 9,700 30,000 39,700 3,100 5,000 8, ,669 2, Yogyakarta 1,800 6,000 7, ,000 3, ,000 1, East Java 12,200 36,000 48,200 3,300 5,334 8, ,780 2, Bali 1,800 9,000 10, ,000 3, ,000 1,100 Total Java and Bali 43, , ,200 13,600 21,668 35,268 3,273 7,231 10, Aceh 500 3,600 4, North Sumatra 3,000 3,600 6,600 1, , West Sumatra 1,500 3,600 5, Riau 600 3,600 4, Jambi 800 3,600 4, South Sumatra 2,800 3,600 6, , Bengkulu 200 3,600 3, Lampung 800 3,600 4, North Sulawesi 1,600 3,600 5, , Central Sulawesi 400 3,600 4, South Sulawesi 4,600 3,600 8,200 2,100 1,800 3, Southeast Sulawesi 300 3,600 3,

15 19. West Kalimantan 1,400 3,600 5, ,200 1, Central Kalimantan 700 3,600 4, South Kalimantan 2,600 3,600 6,200 1, * 2. " East Kalimantan 1,800 3,600 5, ,. " 23. West Nusa Tenggara 400 4,500 4, ,000 3, East Nusa Tenggara 1,800 1,800 3, , Maluku 3,600 u. 3,600 1,200 u 1, Irian Jaya 3,600 u 3,600 1,200 u 1,200 Total outside Java and Bali 33,000 63,900 96,900 12,725 12,740 25,465 Total Indonesia 76, , ,100 26,325 34,408 60,733 u unavailable, na not applicable. a SUPAS Phase III conducted in Java and Bali only.

16 8 Typically the own-children technique is applied to census data. In Indonesia, the first phase of the SUPAS can be considered a kind of sample census, since it covers an unusually large percentage pf the population. Because of age inaccuracy and other kinds of errors in Indonesian census and survey data, the own-children method has been applied to obtain estimates for periods of several years rather than for every single year prior to the census or survey. By so grouping years, it is possible to reduce considerably the impact of age misstatements. In this paper, fertility rates for the period of are based on the own-children data tabulated from the 1971 census (children aged 1 to 4). (See Cho et al., 1976.) The estimates based on the SUPAS Phase I (children aged 6 to 9) were made using child mortality estimates derived from the 1971 census data on children ever born and children surviving. Preliminary fertility estimates for the period of are based on own-children data tabulated from Phase I of the SUPAS, also using the child mortality estimates derived from the 1971 census. Since the SUPAS Phase 1 contained only basic items, the ownchildren tabulation was produced using the data on age and ownmother status. The Brass-type estimation of child mortality requires data on children ever born and children surviving, which are contained in the SUPAS Phase II but not in the first phase. The SUPAS Phase I, however, has the advantage of larger sample sizes for regional fertility estimates. Adjustment for mortality of children and mothers, therefore, was based on mortality levels for the recent period prior to the 1971 census. We have made the assumption that mortality during the period was basically the same as during In subsequent work, we plan to recalculate the own-children fertility estimates using the child mortality estimates based on the proportion of children surviving as derived from the SUPAS Phase II. We believe that the mortality situation has not changed very much since the 1971 census. This paper has its meaning and value in that it provides timely, preliminary fertility estimates; it is our expectation that the final estimates will not differ significantly from those presented here. ESTIMATES AND EVALUATION Tables 2, 3, and 4 present fertility estimates for Indonesia and its major administrative and geographic subdivisions based on the 1971 census for the reference period of and an independent set of fertility estimates for the same areas and reference period derived from the 1976 Intercensal Population Survey (SUPAS I). For Indonesia as a whole, the estimated total fertility rate (TFR) derived from the two

17 TABLE 2 Age-specific fertility and total fertility rates for the urban and rural populations of Indonesia, by province or region: and Estimated from the 1971 census and SUPAS I (1976) ASFR Province/region and source TFR TFR Jakarta SUPAS I ,175 4,940 4,985 West Java ,935 SUPASI ,825 5,875 Central Java SUPASI ,330 5, Yogyakarta SUPASI ,755.4,685 4,753 East Java SUPASI ,720 4,735 4,762 Bali ,955 SUPASI ,680 5,678

18 TABLE 2 (continued) Province/region and source TFR TFR Total Java and Bali ,285 SUPAS ,245 5,272 Sumatra ,540 SUPAS T 30 6,555 6,569 Kalimantan b ,890 SUPAS ,100 6,080 Sulawesi ,020 SUPAS ,235 6,250 Total Indonesia ,605 SUPAS ,565 5,586 NOTE: Figures for the provinces of West Nusa Tenggara, East Nusa Tenggara, MaJuku, and Irian Java are not given. a b c Sumatra includes the eight provinces of Aceh, Riau, Jambi, Bengkulu, Lampung, and North, West, and South Sumatra. Kalimantan includes the four provinces of West, Central, South, and East Kalimantan. Sulawesi includes the four provinces of North, Central, South, and Southeast Sulawesi.

19 11 TABLE 3 Age-specific fertility and total fertility rates for the urban population of Indonesia, by province or region: Estimated from the 1971 census and SUPAS I (1976) Province or region and o source Jakarta SUPASI West Java SUPAS I Central Java SUPASI Yogyakarta SUPAS I East Java SUPAS I Bali SUPAS I TFR ,175. 4,940 5,600 5,415 4,450 4,600 4,120 4,300 4,110 4,240 5,095 4,795 Total Java and Bali SUPASI ,805 4,765 Sumatra SUPASI ,125 6,190 Kalimantan SUPASI ,690 5,815 Sulawesi SUPASI ,125 5,325 Total Indonesia SUPAS I ,110 5,115

20 12 TABLE 4 Age-specific fertility and total fertility rates for the rural population of Indonesia, by province or region: Estimated from the 1971 census and SUPAS I (1976) )vinceor ASFR,ion and source jrce 15 IS TFR Jakarta na na na na na na na na SUPAS 1 na na na na na na na na West Java ,025 SUPAS ,925 Central Java ,495 SUPAS ,495 Yogyakarta Ccn sus ,195 SUPAS ,750 East Java ,855 SUPAS ,830 Bali ,080 SUPAS ,825 Total Java and Bali ,425 SUPAS ,375 Sumatra ,660 SUPAS ,660 Kalimantan ,015 SUPAS ,190 Sulawesi ,210 SUPAS ,450 Total 1 ndonesia ,745 SUPAS ,695 na not applicable.

21 13 independent sources agrees amazingly well 5,605 based on the census as compared with the survey estimate of 5,565 (Table 2). This agreement is extremely robust, considering that these estimates are based on two different sets of enumerations and two different segments of age. The 1971 census estimate is based on own children aged 1 to 4, and the 1976 survey estimate is based on those aged 6 to 9. Agreement of the estimated total fertility between the two sources of data is also very good for the provincial and regional breakdowns within Indonesia (see Figure 3). For example, within Java and Bali the largest deviation is less than 5 percent and for Java and Bali together the agreement can be said to be nearly perfect with the TFR given as 5,285 in the census and as 5,245 in the survey. Table 2 also shows the TFR estimated for the period using the SUPAS I data on own children aged 5-9 years. The reason for presenting this set of TFRs for a slightly different and longer period is to indicate the negligible difference in the estimated TFR even when children five years old are included in the calculation. Age data for Indonesia have had the problem of age misstatement and heaping at ages ending in 5 or 0. We find, in the SUPAS I, that age heaping below age 10 is greatly reduced and we can detect little heaping around age 5. Outside Java the sample size of the survey, combined with the difficulties of managing and supervising the survey enumeration work, resulted in less agreement between the two sources. Deviations, however, are within the reasonable bounds of only slightly more than 5 percent. For age-specific fertility rates, the agreement between the two sets of data is remarkably good except for the two age groups at the beginning and end of the reproductive age span, and Deviations appear to be minor for Indonesia as a whole and for most of the provinces, but both Jakarta and West Java show a considerable amount of deviation. It is probably due to the large volume of migration into Jakarta from surrounding West Java. Migration is selectively high for young women, and probably results in a considerable extent of separation of children from their mothers. The deviation for the age group has little impact on the overall fertility rate because fertility of women in this age category constitutes a small proportion of the total. We have seen fairly convincing agreement between the fertility rate5 based on the census and the survey for the same reference pcriod-for total rates as well as by age categories. This agreement encourages us to use the estimated fertility rates from the survey for more recent periods. For example, the estimated fertility rates from the SUPAS Phase 1 can serve as a tentative indicator of fertility change over the two periods of and (see Tables 5, 6, and 7). For

22 14 FIGURE 3 Scatter diagram of total fertility rate estimated from SUPAS I (1976) and the 1971 census: Indonesia, Jakarta 2 West Java 3 Central Java 4 Yogyakarta 5 East Java 6 Bali 7 Sumatra 8 Kalimantan 9 Sulawesi / / / 2 /. 8 /.6 / /* I ndonesia Java and Bali^ / /Indonesia Java and Bali Urban Rural 4 ^ 5 6 Fertility rate estimated from 1971 census Indonesia as a whole, we find there is a slight (7 percent) decline of fertility between the two time periods, from a total fertility rate of 5.6 to 5.2. For Java and Bali the TFR fell from 5.2 to 4.9, a decline of 6 percent. Kalimantan, Sulawesi, and Sumatra also show some decline in fertility, but we should be more cautious about the data for areas outside Java and Bali, where unrecognized boundaries of many of the 1971 census blocks may have caused greater underenumeration. Looking at the age-specific fertility of Indonesian women, we find declines ranging between 6 and 14 percent in the age groups of 15-19, 25-29, 35-39, and 40-44, and a substantial decline (22 percent)

23 15 TABLE 5 Age-specific fertility and total fertility rates for the urban and rural populations of Indonesia, by province or region, estimated from SUPAS I: and Province or ASFR 1 W^IWII U 1 1 v period TFR Jakarta , ,780 West Java , ,640 Central Java , ,915 Yogyakarta , ,470 East Java , ,320 Bali , ,230 Total Java and Bali , ,900 Sumatra , ,095 Kalimantan , ,610 Sulawesi , ,915 Total Indonesia , , ,200

24 16 TABLE 6 Age-specific fertility and total fertility rates for the urban population of Indonesia, by province or region, estimated from SUPAS I: and Province or ASFR I vgiui i ai I U period TFR Jakarta , ,780 West Java , ,075 Central Java , ,340 Yogyakarta , ,905 East Java , ,930 Bali , ,085 Total Java and Bali , ,485 Sumatra , ,475 Kalimantan , ,510 Sulawesi , ,810 Total Indonesia , ,755

25 17 TABLE 7 Age-specific fertility and total fertility rates for the rural population of Indonesia, by province or region, estimated from SUPAS I: and period TFR Jakarta na na na na na na na na West Java , ,770 Central Java , ,035 Yogya karta , ,625 East Java , ,410 Bali , ,400 Total Java. and Bali " , ,025 Sumatra , ,265 Kalimantan i * , ,630 Sulawesi , ,195 Total Indonesia , ,340 na not applicable.

26 18 in the least fertile age group of 45 49, whereas little change is seen for the age groups of and (1 and 4 percent, respectively). The same pattern is also true for Java and Bali. There appear to be no significant differences in the age patterns of fertility decline for urban and rural areas. Table 8 presents fertility estimates based on Phase I of the survey and on the World Fertility Survey Phase of the SUPAS. It shows encouraging agreement between the first and third phases. TABLE 8 Estimates of total fertility rates for Java and Bali based on the 1971 census, SUPAS Phase I (1976), and SUPAS Phase III (1976) Period (and source) Jakarta West Java Central Java Yogyakarta East Java Bali Total Java and Bali (1971 census) (1976 SUPAS 1) (1976 SUPAS III) CONCLUSION Indonesia has been regarded by many demographers as a country without sufficiently accurate demographic information to indicate either current levels of fertility or trends over time. Although the demographic data for Indonesia are not of as good quality as those for some other Asian countries, such as South Korea and the Philippines, we believe that data from different surveys and censuses can be so related and analyzed as to derive reasonable estimates of recent fertility levels as well as tentatively to indicate recent changes. Utilization of the SUPAS in connection with the previous census is one part of the demographical strategy for Indonesia. On the basis of the analysis presented in this paper our conclusions regarding the demography of Indonesia are much more positive now. The analytical results presented in this paper demonstrate that, although accurate measurements of fertility for every single calendar year preceding the census by single years of age of mother cannot be

27 attained for Indonesia, measures of overall fertility and by broad age groups of mother can be derived for the reference period of four to five years. The independent check turned out to be much more convincing when also applied to regional variations in the levels of fertility. 19

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29 21 REFERENCES Cho, Lee-Jay 1968 Income and differentials in current fertility. Demography 5(1): Estimating Recent Fertility from Data on Own Cfuldren: West Malaysia, Papers of the East-West Population Institute, no. 8. Honolulu: East-West Center. 1971a 1971b Korea: estimating current fertility from the 1966 census. Studies in Family Planning 2(3): On estimating annual birth rates from census data on children. In Proceedings of the American Statistical Association, Social Statistics Section, pp Washington, D.C.: American Statistical Association. 197 lc Preliminary estimates of fertility for Korea. Population Index 37: The own-children approach to fertility estimation: an elaboration. In International Union for the Scientific Study of Population, International Population Conference, Liege 1973, vol. 2: Estimates of Current Fertility for the Republic of Korea and Its Geographical Subdivisions: Seoul: Yonsei University Press. Cho, Lee-Jay; Wilson H. Grabill;and Donald J. Bogue 1970 Differential Current Fertility in the United States. Chicago: Community and Family Study Center, University of Chicago. Cho, Lee-Jay, and Man Jun Hahm 1968 Recent change in fertility rates of the Korean population. Demography 5(2): Cho, Lee-Jay; James A. Palmore; and Lyle Saunders 1968 Recent fertility trends in Malaysia. Demography 5(2): Cho, Lee-Jay, Sam Suharto, Geoffrey McNicoll, and S.G. Made.Mamas 1976 Estimates of Fertility and Mortality in Indonesia: Based on the 1971 Population. Jakarta: Biro Pusat Statistik. Grabill, Wilson H., and Lee Jay Cho 1965 Methodology for the measurement of current fertility from population data on young children. Demography 2:50-73.

30 RECENT AVAILABLE PAPERS OF THE EAST-WEST POPULATION INSTITUTE 28 The demographic situation in Indonesia, by Geoffrey McNicoll and Si Gde Made Mamas, December 1973, 59 + vii pp. 30 Demographic research in Japan, : a survey and selected bibliography, by Y. Scott Matsumoto, April 1974, 78 + v pp. 32 The value of children in Asia and the United States: comparative perspectives, by James T. Fawcett et al., July 1974, 69 + vii pp. 33 The present and prospective state of policy approaches to fertility, by Ozzie G. Simmons and Lyle Saunders, June 1975, 25 + v pp. 34 Female labor force participation in a modernizing society: Malaya and Singapore, , by Monica S. Fong, June 1975, 39 + vii pp. 35 Fertility socialization research in the United States: a progress report, by Susan O. Gustavus, July 1975, 19 + v pp. 36 Data relevant to socialization in the U.S. national fertility surveys, by Larry L. Bumpass, December 1 975, 14 + v pp. 37 Some sociological suggestions concerning the reduction of fertility in developing countries, by Norman B. Ryder, January 1976, 14 + v pp. 38 Future autobiographies: expectations of marriage, children, and careers, by Nancy E. Williamson, Sandra L. Putnam, and H. Regina Wurthmann, February 1 976, 29 + v pp. 39 The development of family size and sex composition norms among U.S. children, by Gerald E. Markle and Robert F. Wait, September 1976, 23 + vii pp. 40 Urbanization in the Philippines: historical and comparative perspectives, by Ernesto M. Pernia, November 1976, 38 + v pp. 41 A method of decomposing urban population growth and an application to Philippine data, by Ernesto M. Pernia, December 1976, 26 + v pp. 42 Methodological difficulties encountered in using own-children data: illustrations from the United States, by Ronald R. Rindfuss, February 1977, 17 + v pp. 43 The fertility of migrants to urban places in Thailand, by Sidney Goldstein and Penporn Tirasawat, April 1977, 49 + v pp. 44 The demographic situation in the Philippines: an assessment in 1977, by Mercedes B. Concepcion and Peter C. Smith, June 1 977, 75 + vii pp. 45 The demographic situation in Thailand, by Fred Arnold, Robert D. Retherford, and Anuri Wanglee, July 1977, 35 + vii pp. 46 The role of migration and population distribution in Japan's demographic transition, by Toshio Kuroda, July 1977, 17 + v pp. 47 The recent fertility decline in the Chiang Mai area of Thailand, by Tieng Pardthaisong, February 1978, 36 + vii pp. 48 Spatial analysis of family planning program effects in Taiwan, , by Albert I. Hermalin, April 1978, 39 + vii pp. 49 Gainsfrom population control: results from an econometric model, by Daniel B. Suits and Andrew Mason, April 1978, 22 + v pp. 50 The economic value of children in Asia and Africa: comparative perspectives, by Helen Ware, April 1978, 36 + v pp. 51 Rural-urban migration and social mobility: studies of three South Korean cities, by Man-Gap Lee and Herbert R. Barringer, May 1978, 44 + vii pp.

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32 THE EAST-WEST CENTER-officially known as the Center for Cultural and Technical Interchange Between East and West is a national educational institution established in Hawaii by the U.S. Congress in 1960 to promote better relations and understanding between the United States and the nations of Asia and the Pacific through cooperative study, training, and research. The Center is administered by a public, nonprofit corporation whose international Board of Governors consists of distinguished scholars, business leaders, and public servants. Each year more than 1,500 men and women from many nations and cultures participate in Center programs that seek cooperative solutions to problems of mutual consequence to East and West. Working with the Center's multidisciplinary and multicultural staff, participants include visiting scholars and researchers; leaders and professionals from the academic, government, and business communities; and graduate degree students, most of whom are enrolled at the University of Hawaii. For each Center participant from the United States, two participants are sought from the Asian and Pacific area. Center programs are conducted by institutes addressing problems of communication, culture learning, environment and policy, population, and resource systems. A limited number of "open" grants are available to degree scholars and research fellows whose academic interests are not encompassed by institute programs. The U.S. Congress provides basic funding for Center programs and a variety of awards to participants. Because of the cooperative nature of Center programs, financial support and cost-sharing are also provided by Asian and Pacific governments, regional agencies, private enterprise, and foundations. The Center is on land adjacent to and provided by the University of Hawaii. THE EAST-WEST POPULATION INSTITUTE, established as a unit of the East-West Center in 1969 with the assistance of a grant from the Agency for International Development, carries out multidisciplinary research, training, and related activities in the field of population, placing emphasis on economic, social, psychological, and environmental aspects of population problems in Asia, the Pacific, and the United States. East-West Population Institute East-West Center East-West Road Honolulu, Hawaii Director Lee-Jay Cho Publications Officer Sandra E. Ward Editor Milann Gannaway Production Assistant Lois M. Bender Cartographer Gregory Chu

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