Steigende Uranpreise bei stagnierender Produktion: Attraktives Umfeld für neue Produzenten
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1 copyright by NUKEM GmbH Steigende Uranpreise bei stagnierender Produktion: Attraktives Umfeld für neue Produzenten
2 KTG copyright by NUKEM GmbH Seite 2 Nuclear Energy back on the Political Agendas of many Countries Reasons for the "Nuclear Renaissance" Declining oil and gas reserves. Steadily increasing costs of oil and gas Increasing "hunger for energy" of recovering (Russia) and emerging economic super powers (India, China) Apprehended political instability and/or unreliability of leading oil and gas supplying countries Steadily increasing environmental awareness. Need to fight global warming Excellent performance records of NPPs worldwide Competitiveness of nuclear energy Operation of NPPs with very limited CO2 emissions Some leading environmentalists are rethinking nuclear opposition
3 KTG copyright by NUKEM GmbH Seite 3 Nuclear Power Plants in Operation, under Construction, Planned and Anticipated, GWe net Anticipated now Planned now Under Construction In Commercial Operation Status: March 2007 Year
4 KTG copyright by NUKEM GmbH Seite 4 Reactor Construction Programs Worldwide Year-end 2006: 31 countries with operating NPPs 435 NPPs with 364 GWe in commercial operation 36 NPPs with 30 GWe under construction 97 NPPs with 106 GWe planned 167 NPPs with 175 GWe anticipated to start until 2030
5 KTG copyright by NUKEM GmbH Seite 5 Reactor Construction Programs Worldwide (continued) 2006 to 2030: Accounting for the shutdown of aging reactors, new reactors with 307 GWe have to be constructed After 2020, each year on average GWe have to commence operation 10 to 14 NPPs with 1,500-1,600 MWe each For comparison: In the mid-1980s, reactors with a total capacity of GWe started up each year
6 KTG copyright by NUKEM GmbH Seite 6 Reactor Construction Programs Worldwide (continued) Year-end 2030: 41 countries with operating NPPs 545 NPPs with 534 GWe in commercial operation
7 KTG copyright by NUKEM GmbH Seite 7 Installed Capacity of Reactors by Region, GWe net Others Far East USA Western Europe Status: March 2007 Year
8 KTG copyright by NUKEM GmbH Seite 8 Have all Gears been Switched to Animate the "Nuclear Renaissance" What about civil and nuclear capabilities to supply plants and equipment, from local suppliers or international markets? What about the capacities to manufacture huge and heavy NPP components? Are necessary people and nuclear skills available? What about the availability of uranium, conversion and enrichment capacities? Conversion and enrichment plants can be engineered and built. Economical uranium resources must be found. New mines and mills cannot be churned out.
9 KTG copyright by NUKEM GmbH Seite 9 World Uranium Demand and Supply, ) ,000 t U 40 Primary Production Secondary Supplies 20 Demand ) 2006 and 2007: Estimates Year
10 KTG copyright by NUKEM GmbH Seite 10 World Uranium Production in 2005 by Country South Africa 1.6% Ukraine 2.2% United States 2.2% Others 5.0% Canada 27.9% Uzbekistan 5.5% Niger 7.4% Namibia 7.5% Russia 8.6% Kazakhstan 9.3% Australia 22.8% Total: 41,775 t U
11 KTG copyright by NUKEM GmbH Seite 11 World Uranium Production in 2005 by Shareholders CNNC 1.8% Nufcor 1.6% Others 7.0% Cameco 19.9% VostGok 2.2% Navoi 5.5% JSC TVEL 8.6% AREVA NC 16.2% WMC Resources/ BHP Billiton 8.8% NAC KazAtomProm 8.9% RUL 19.5% Total: 41,742 t U
12 KTG copyright by NUKEM GmbH Seite 12 World Uranium Demand and Supply, ,000 80,000 t U 60,000 40,000 Secondary Supplies 1) Demand (incl. Inventory Buildup & Funds Purchases) 20, Source: NUKEM GmbH, March ) Weapons Plutonium, Recycled U and Pu, Inventories
13 KTG copyright by NUKEM GmbH Seite 13 World Uranium Demand and Supply, ,000 80,000 t U Operating Production 60,000 Secondary Supplies 1) 40,000 20,000 Demand (incl. Inventory Buildup & Funds Purchases) Source: NUKEM GmbH, March ) Weapons Plutonium, Recycled U and Pu, Inventories
14 KTG copyright by NUKEM GmbH Seite 14 World Uranium Demand and Supply, ,000 t U 80,000 60,000 Planned Production Operating Production 40,000 Secondary Supplies 1) 20,000 Demand (incl. Inventory Buildup & Funds Purchases) Source: NUKEM GmbH, March ) Weapons Plutonium, Recycled U and Pu, Inventories
15 KTG copyright by NUKEM GmbH Seite 15 World Uranium Demand and Supply, ,000 Prospective Production t U 80,000 60,000 Planned Production Operating Production 40,000 Secondary Supplies 1) 20,000 Demand (incl. Inventory Buildup & Funds Purchases) Source: NUKEM GmbH, March ) Weapons Plutonium, Recycled U and Pu, Inventories
16 KTG copyright by NUKEM GmbH Seite 16 Nuclear Fuel Market Player Groups: Sellers and Buyers Seller Buyer Producers Utilities Intermediaries (Traders) Hedge Fonds When? Others
17 KTG copyright by NUKEM GmbH Seite 17 Average Annual Uranium Spot Market Prices, ) 80 US$/lb U3O ) Average price for the period 1 January through 28 February 2007 Source: NUKEM GmbH, March 2007
18 KTG copyright by NUKEM GmbH Seite 18 Uranium Spot Market Prices and Base Prices Charged under new Long-Term Contracts, US$/lb U3O Jan-06 Oct-05 Jul-05 Apr-05 Jan-05 Oct-04 Jul-04 Apr-04 Jan-04 Base Prices Charged under new Long-Term Contracts 1) Spot Market Prices Jan-07 Oct-06 Jul-06 Apr-06 1) Base prices are given for the month of contract conclusion Source: UX Weekly
19 KTG copyright by NUKEM GmbH Seite 19 Major Events Driving Uranium Spot Market Prices Upwards, US$/lb U3O December 2003: Converdyn's Conversion Plant Temporarily Shut Down April 2003: McArthur River Mine Flooded May 2005: First Hedge Fond entered the Spot Market April 2006: Cigar Lake Mine Flooded March 2007: Ranger Mine Flooded
20 KTG copyright by NUKEM GmbH Seite 20 Reasons for Uranium Price Increases Secondary supplies are largely dried out (Exception: Downblended Russian weapons-grade uranium (HEU)) Uranium production not keeping up with increasing demand Production downtimes of individual producers (Olympic Dam and Ranger (Australia); McArthur River (Canada)) Delayed start-up of new mines due to technical problems (Honeymoon Australia); Vasquez (USA); Cigar Lake (Canada)) Short-term purchases of producers who cannot meet upward delivery flexibilities granted under their long-term contracts Hedge Fonds' purchases in a tight market supporting upward price trend
21 KTG copyright by NUKEM GmbH Seite 21 Why Can Uranium Production not Keep up with Demand? The downtime cycle of uranium production in the period resulted in a virtual collapse of uranium production in the USA and other countries with medium- and high-cost production Long period of low prices led to lack of investment in new production centres Virtually all uranium mines expected to start up in the medium term are highcost and rather small New producers do not need temporary price peaks, but constantly high prices. Only now new producers can be sure that prices will remain on high levels The uranium industry has to be rebuilt from scratch (Ux Weekly, )
22 KTG copyright by NUKEM GmbH Seite 22 Will Increased Uranium Prices Kill the "Nuclear Renaissance"? Existing reactors and those under construction will not be negatively impacted by high uranium prices Most firmly planned and anticipated reactors will remain economically attractive due to still low operating costs and "climate friendliness" (Ux Weekly, ) Not current uranium prices, but long-term availability of uranium is a real issue for utilities planning to construct new NPPs
23 KTG copyright by NUKEM GmbH Seite 23 Reaction of Existing and Potential Producers to recent Uranium Price Increases Australia: BHP Billiton is planning to expand the capacity of its multi-mineral Olympic Dam project to about 13,000 t U/year Australia: Lifetime extension (by 6 years) of Ranger mine due to economic reassessment of resources Individual mines (e.g. McArthur River (Canada) and Smith Ranch/Highland (USA)) will increase their production Namibia: Lifetime extension (until 2016) and modernization of Rio Tinto's Rössing Mine
24 KTG copyright by NUKEM GmbH Seite 24 Reaction of Existing and Potential Producers to recent Uranium Price Increases (continued) Namibia: Paladin Resources' Langer Heinrich uranium project started production (about 1,000 t U/year) South Africa: The Dominion project is scheduled to start production in 1st quarter of 2007 In the USA, several not yet fully exploited conventional in-situ-leach (ISL) mines with production levels of several 100 t U/year each announced their recommissioning
25 KTG copyright by NUKEM GmbH Seite 25 Reaction of Existing and Potential Producers to recent Uranium Price Increases (continued) Kazakhstan announced new uranium mines, aiming at a production of 17,000 t U/year by 2010 In Russia, a major uranium project in Elkonskoye (Eastern Siberia) shall start in 2010, scheduled to yield 3,000 t U/year in 2015 Exploration companies and potential "new" producers ("Juniors") started comprehensive uranium exploration activities, mainly in Canada, USA, Australia, Mongolia, South America, Central Africa, and Northern Europe - In 2000, about 30 exploration companies - In 2005, about 250 exploration companies - In 2006, about 400 exploration companies For all that: The uranium industry has not yet responded to recent price increases with a real boom of new mines and mills
26 KTG copyright by NUKEM GmbH Seite 26 Have all Gears been Switched to Animate the "Nuclear Renaissance" Is there enough natural uranium to animate the "Nuclear Renaissance"?
27 KTG copyright by NUKEM GmbH Seite 27 Terms Used in Uranium Resources Classification Systems Identified Resources Undiscovered Resources OECD NEA/IAEA Reasonable Assured Inferred Prognosticated Speculative Australia Demonstrated Measured Indicated Inferred Undiscovered Canada (NRCan) Measured Indicated Inferred Prognosticated Speculative United States (DOE) Reasonably Assured Estimated Additional Speculative Russian Federation, Kazakhstan, Ukraine, A + B C 1 C2 P1 P2 P3 Uzbekistan
28 Reasonably Assured plus Inferred Resources (< US$ 130/kg U) 1) 2) KTG copyright by NUKEM GmbH Seite 28 Canada 443 Russia 172 Ukraine 89 Kazakhstan 816 Uzbekistan 116 Niger 225 Others 1,110 Namibia 282 South Africa 341 1) Numbers in 1,000 t U 2) US$ 130/kg U = US$ 50/lb U3O8 World Total: 4,743 Mio t U Australia 1,143
29 KTG copyright by NUKEM GmbH Seite 29 Reasonably Assured plus Inferered Resources (<US$ 130/kgU) 25 % of World Total ) World Total = mio tonnes U 5 0 Australia Kazakhstan Canada South Africa Namibia Niger Russian Federation Uzbekistan Ukraine Others
30 KTG copyright by NUKEM GmbH Seite 30 Australian Uranium Policy Federal government (Liberal and National Party) pro-nuclear Anti-nuclear Labour Party (LP) in power in all seven States/Territories Labour Party upholding ban on new uranium kining operations (in addition to the three operating mines and the only mine in start-up) Uranium exploration even outlawed in Victoria and New South Wales Labour Party Leader Kevin Rudd will change the LP's convention in April 2007 Several heads of States/Territories will follow Rudd's approach
31 KTG copyright by NUKEM GmbH Seite 31 How much Uranium is Enough Uranium? Reasonably Assured (RAR) plus Inferred Resources (IR) in 2007 (< US$ 130/kg U) Reactor Demand, (not accounting for Secondary Supplies) Remaining Reasonably Assured plus Inferred Resources in 2030 (< US$ 130/kg U) Reactor Demand in ,743,000 t U 2,017,000 t U 2,726,000 t U 100,000 t U In 2030, the then left RAR and IR can cover demand for less than 30 years Identified Resources < US$ 130/kg U (OECD/NEA) are not sufficient to meet longer-term reactor needs Source: OECD/NEA; Uranium 2005: Resources, Production and Demand, 2006
32 KTG copyright by NUKEM GmbH Seite 32 How much Uranium is Enough Uranium? Resource Category Reasonable Assured plus Inferred Resources (< US$ 130/kg U) Prognosticated plus Speculative Resources (< US$ 130/kg U) Quantity (in 1,000 t U) Coverage of Demand (in Years) GWe 66,000 t U GWe 100,000 t U 4, , Subtotal 1 11, Speculative Resources (No Cost Range Assigned) 2, Subtotal 2 14, Unconventional Uranium Resources - Phosphates 22, Ocean Water (1% of Total) 40, Total 76,800 1, Source: OECD/NEA; Uranium 2005: Resources, Production and Demand, 2006
33 KTG copyright by NUKEM GmbH Seite 33 How Will Things Move on in 2007 and Beyond? Is uranium supply tight enough to provide for further significant U price increases? Will the "uranium exploration boom" continue? Will "Juniors" graduate to the next level and become producers? Is uranium supply tight enough to ensure constantly high prices, guaranteeing a persisting return on investment in new mines and mills? How will Investment Holding Entities respond to changing market conditions?
34 KTG copyright by NUKEM GmbH Seite 34 Major Characteristics of the Juniors Formation: Mostly in the past five years (from 2001 onwards) Headquarters: Predominantly in Canada, Australia and the US High change dynamics: Formation, sale, change of shareholders in short periods Level of diversification: Nearly 80% of the companies have commercial operations besides uranium, such as gold, copper, nickel, zinc, platinum, or diamonds Reduction of risk in projects: Companies hedge reciprocally through purchase options on uranium or they form strategic partnerships/joint ventures Geographic focus of exploration: Canada, the US and Australia, with a focus on areas with data available from the 1st industrial exploration cycle
35 Location of Selected Exploration Projects KTG copyright by NUKEM GmbH Seite 35 Canada 190 (48%) USA 88 (22%) Mongolia/ Kazakhstan/ Kirgistan 26 (7%) Others 18 (5%) South America 10 (2%) Source: NUKEM GmbH, April 2006 Africa 19 (5%) Number of analysed projects: 396 Australia 45 (11%)
36 KTG copyright by NUKEM GmbH Seite 36 Uranium Supply Contribution from "Junior" Projects Projects with ore bodies widely distributed and with only low uranium grades: Relatively low production capacity Uranium grades quite low, primarily between % U: Production relatively costly Early stage of 2nd industrial exploration cycle: Forecast on start of uranium production currently only vague
37 KTG copyright by NUKEM GmbH Seite 37 Conclusions The "Nuclear Renaissance" is gathering more and more momentum Increased uranium prices are not expected to jeopardize nuclear's economic attractiveness Existing and potential producers have to rush to keep up with increasing uranium demand in order to prevent the uranium supply chain from disrupture Most next-generation uranium mines (start-up ) will be small and have only moderate uranium grades Uranium prices will stay at high levels
38 KTG copyright by NUKEM GmbH Seite 38 Conclusions (continued) Reappraisal of nuclear energy and increased uranium prices give exploration companies and new producers ("Juniors") excellent future prospects Geologists are confident that many more (and partly) rich uranium deposits will be found There is enough uranium to support ambitious NPP programs (based on Generation III and III+ reactor concepts) for more than 100 years
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