by Ashwani Gujral Getting the best of East and West.
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1 by Ashwani Gujral Getting the best of East and West. Candlestick charting signals can be used in conjunction with Western indicators and the results achieved might be better than using them individually. I will take nine candlestick patterns and identify them on a chart with a candlestick pattern scanning software, and then filter those signals with Western indicators and check their performance. I have limited the number of patterns to nine for ease of explanation. It is critical to understand the methodology; readers can increase the number of candlestick patterns and indicators in the study. This article is written from a trader's point of view and depicts how I use candlestick charting in my daily trading. I will avoid using statistics here because that can be read elsewhere from some of the literature available on candlesticks. I will also avoid the repetition of a description of all the reversal and continuation patterns available in candlestick charting. ORIGINS First developed in 17th-century Japan for rice trading, candlestick charting consists of depicting price information in terms of hollow or white bodies or filled or black bodies with wicks at both ends. The white body is interpreted as the opening price of the session being below the closing price and the black body is interpreted as the opening price of the session being above the closing price of the session. The wicks at the top and bottom of the real bodies depict the high and low of the day. 1
2 The major difference between the Western charts and the candlestick method is that the candlesticks give a clear view of market behavior both in terms of buying and selling activity in the market and in terms of indecisiveness or clear trend. Candlestick patterns often provide the trigger for the buying or selling decision once the Western indicators move to extreme overbought and oversold conditions. The indicators that the candle charts will be tested against are: Relative strength index (RSI): 7 Slow stochastic: 7,10 Average directional moving index (ADX): 14 Moving average convergence/divergence (MACD): 26,12,9 We will first go through the shapes and interpretations of the candle patterns that must be tested. This will allow us to determine whether a particular candle formation should be accepted or rejected. We will study both entries and exits into trends. All signals will be taken only when the indicators are in the extreme overbought or oversold territory. Ignore signals occurring in other conditions. We will avoid countertrend trades for this analysis. The main trend in all cases being considered is up. The various candle patterns with their shapes and interpretations can be seen in Figure 1. The doji occurs when the open and the close for the day are the same. It depicts indecision and can often mean impending weakness in an uptrend. 2
3 The real body is small and at the upper end of the range; the color is not important. The lower wick should be longer than the upper body; generally bullish. The hanging man is considered bullish because of the uptrend. The color is not important; could be bearish if the body is black and the next day opens lower. The shooting star indicates an end to the upmove. The body of the shooting star does gap up over the previous day. 3
4 In an uptrend, on one day a small white body occurs. The next day prices open at new highs and quickly sell off, closing below the open of the previous day. In a downtrend, a small black body occurs. The next day prices open at new lows and then quickly rally to close above the close of the previous day. The dark cloud is a bearish reversal pattern. This pattern occurs only in an uptrend. The first day is a long white body; the second day is a bearish black body. The morning star is a bullish reversal pattern. Ideal morning stars have gaps before and after the middle day's body. 4
5 Evening star is a bearish reversal pattern. It occurs after an uptrend and should have gaps before and after the middle day's body. FIGURE 1: Here are various candlestick pattern shapes and interpretations. USING RSI WITH CANDLESTICKS Figure 2 is of the Nasdaq 100 daily scanned for the eight candlestick patterns along with the seven-period RSI. The oversold RSI in an uptrend provides low-risk entries into a trend. Candlestick patterns can be used to determine when the correction is over. By filtering the candle signals with the RSI, taking the signals appropriate with the market signals, we can avoid false signals. Readers should also remember that the RSI can be used as an oscillator, to trade overbought and oversold levels in a range-bound situation. Again, in this case the candle entry signals can be filtered by using the RSI. The circled numbers in the figure list the response for each candle signal received after filtering with the RSI. 5
6 FIGURE 2: Candlesticks and RSI. Here you see how using an indicator such as the relative strength index together with candlestick patterns helps avoid false signals. The RSI 30 and 70 levels are considered overbought and oversold: 1. Doji:RSI overbought, become cautious, move stops closer; the uptrend may weaken 2. Dark cloud: RSI shows divergence with price; get out of long positions 3. Morning star: RSI hits oversold levels, bullish candle formation; enter long 4. Doji: RSI overbought, become cautious, move stops closer; the up trend may weaken 6
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