THE GULF COAST VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT:

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1 THE GULF COAST VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT: Amanda Watson GCVA Coordinator Mississippi State University Gulf Coast Prairie LCC June 3, 2015 Webinar

2 Why? Changing Conditions Conservation is increasingly challenging and complex Population and resource demands = ecosystem impacts Climate change exacerbates the problem Need to incorporate changing conditions gulfcouncil.org

3 Vulnerability Assessments Which ecosystems or species are most vulnerable? Where? Set conservation priorities Why are they vulnerable? What can we do about it? Select adaptation strategies Glick, P., B.A. Stein, and N.A. Edelson, editors Scanning the Conservation Horizon: A Guide to Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment. National Wildlife Federation, Washington, D.C.

4 Gulf Coast Vulnerability Assessment Project Goal: Enhance conservation and restoration planning and implementation by providing an understanding of the effects of climate change, sea level rise, and land use change on Gulf of Mexico coastal ecosystems and their species. Gather expertise from across the Gulf Inform Gulf-wide strategies

5 GCVA Pilot Ecosystems Barrier Islands Tidal Emergent Marsh Oyster Reefs Mangroves

6 GCVA Pilot Ecosystems and Species Barrier Islands Black Skimmer Wilson s Plover Kemp s Ridley Sea Turtle Tidal Emergent Marsh Mottled Duck Spotted Seatrout Blue Crab Clapper Rail Oyster Reefs Eastern Oyster American Oystercatcher Red Drum Mangroves Roseate Spoonbill

7 Study Area 6 sub-regions Laguna Madre Western Gulf Coastal Plain Mississippi Alluvial Plain Southern Coastal Plain Central FL Coastal Plain Southern FL Coastal Plain

8 Temporal Aspects Planning Horizon 2060 Climate Scenarios High CO2 emissions (A2) 0.82m sea level rise Low CO2 emissions (B1) 0.82m sea level rise Low CO2 emissions (B1) 0.41m sea level rise

9 Standardized Index of Vulnerability and Value Assessment Spreadsheet tool Expert opinion Qualitative scores Habitats and species Multiple values Ecological Conservation Economic Evolutionary Uncertainty Published Reece et al. 2014

10 Data Sources for GCVA Habitat and Species Maps Conservation Lands Sea Level Rise Urbanization Climate Projections Air Temperature Precipitation Salinity Sea Surface Temperature

11 Preliminary Results 144 sets of assessments by 59 experts

12 Habitat Assessments Ecosystem Status: historical decline in area and ecosystem function; geographic extent Vulnerability: expected loss to SLR and urbanization, threat from invasive species, range shift constraints, etc.

13 Species Assessments Potential Impact (Exposure + Sensitivity): includes temperature and precipitation ranges, SLR impact, exposure to salinity, etc. Adaptive Capacity: mobility, genetic diversity, generation time, etc.

14 Results

15 Tidal Emergent Marsh Threats: Sea level rise Altered hydrology Constraints on range shifts (SFCP) Invasive species (SFCP) Vulnerability Values: Very low: Low: Moderate: High: Very High:

16 Mottled Duck Threats: Increasing salinity

17 Oyster Reef Eastern Threats: Altered hydrology Altered biotic interactions Threats: Increased salinity and SST= increased predation and disease

18 Barrier Islands Threats: Sea level rise Constraints on range shifts (except LM)

19 Black Skimmer Threats: Sea level rise Erosion of habitat Storm surge/runoff Tropical storms

20 Kemp s Ridley Threats: Sea level rise Storm surge/runoff

21 Data Needs Combined effects of sea level rise, land-use change, and climate change on species and ecosystems. Changes to biotic interactions. Future tropical storm activity Genetic information

22 Management Actions Watershed management practices Ecosystem needs Human needs Manage for the fringes of site suitability Reducing human impacts Raising awareness of nesting birds Reducing bycatch mortality Kemp s Ridley Preventing overharvesting of oysters

23 Primary Audiences Managers Stepped down management plans Adaptation RFPs Scientists/Funders Research RFPs Planners Regional conservation design/adaptation strategies SECAS linkage

24 Next Steps Preparing GCVA Report Review by the Core Planning Team ongoing Targeted application of information Information transfer distribution of report, webinars, etc. Science coordination translating data deficiencies into science needs and RFPs Conservation design Gulf Coast Conservation Adaptation Strategy Roll out at GOMA All Hands Meeting Biloxi, MS in June 2015 Assess other ecosystems and species phase 2

25 GCVA Partners Gulf of Mexico Alliance Landscape Conservation Cooperatives Climate Science Centers NOAA MSU/NGI Valdosta State University

26 Questions? Amanda Watson, GCVA Coordinator Cynthia Edwards, Interim Coordinator

27 Ecosystem & Species Expert Team Mark Woodrey Grand Bay NERR/Mississippi State University Tidal Emergent Marsh P. Soupy Dalyander U. S. Geological Survey Barrier Islands Laura Geselbracht The Nature Conservancy Mangroves Megan LaPeyre Louisiana State University Oyster Reefs

28 Co-authors include: Amanda Watson Northern Gulf Institute/MSU Josh Reece Valdosta State University John M. Tirpak USFWS/ Gulf Restoration Program Rua Mordecai USFWS/ SALCC Steve Traxler USFWS/ PFLCC James W. Pahl LA Coastal Protection and Restoration Authority Blair E. Tirpak USGS/ GCPLCC Cynthia Edwards GCPLCC

29 Wilson s Plover

30 Spotted Seatrout

31 Blue Crab

32 Clapper Rail

33 Red Drum

34 Mangrove

35 Roseate Spoonbill

36 American Oystercatcher

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