Replacement, Maintenance, and Reliability. Theory and Applications SECOND EDITION. (cfc. Andrew K.S. Jardine Albert H.C. Tsang.

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1 Maintenance, Replacement, and Reliability Theory and Applications SECOND EDITION Andrew K.S. Jardine Albert H.C. Tsang (cfc CRC Press Taylor & Francis Croup Boca Raton London New York CRC Press is an imprint of the Taylor & Francis Croup, an informa business

2 Contents Preface for the First Edition Preface for the Second Edition Acknowledgments for the First Edition xix Acknowledgments for the Second Edition xxi Authors Abstract xv xvii xxiii xxv Chapter 1 Introduction From Maintenance Management to Physical Asset Management Challenges of PAM Emerging Trends of Operation Strategies Toughening Societal Expectations Technological Changes Increased Emphasis on Sustainability Improving PAM Maintenance Excellence Strategic Tactical Continuous Improvements Quantum Leaps PAS 55 A Framework for Optimized Management of Physical Assets Reliability through the Operator: TPM Reliability by Design: RCM Optimizing Maintenance and Replacement Decisions The Quantitative Approach Setting Objectives Models Obtaining Solutions from Models Maintenance Control and Mathematical Models Data Requirements for Modeling 24 References 24 Chapter 2 Component Replacement Decisions Introduction Optimal Replacement Times for Equipment Whose Operating Cost Increases with Use Statement of the Problem 30

3 viii Contents Construction of the Model Numerical Example Further Comments Applications Replacing the Air Filter in an Automobile Overhauling a Boiler Plant Stochastic Preventive Replacement: Some Introductory Comments Optimal Preventive Replacement Interval of Items Subject to Breakdown (Also Known as the Group or Block Policy) Statement of the Problem Construction of the Model Determination of H(t) Renewal Theory Approach Discrete Approach Numerical Example Further Comments An Application: Optimal Replacement Interval for a Left-Hand Steering Clutch Optimal Preventive Replacement Age of an Item Subject to Breakdown Statement of the Problem Construction of the Model Numerical Example Further Comments An Application: Optimal Bearing Replacement Age Optimal Preventive Replacement Age of an Item Subject to Breakdown, Taking Account of the Times Required to Carry Out Failure and Preventive Replacements Statement of the Problem Construction of the Model Numerical Example Optimal Preventive Replacement Interval or Age of an Item Subject to Breakdown: Minimization of Downtime Statement of the Problem Construction of the Models Model 1: Determination of Optimal Preventive Replacement Interval Model 2: Determination of Optimal Preventive Replacement Age Numerical Examples Model 1: Replacement Interval Model 2: Replacement Age Further Comments 61

4 Contents lx Applications Replacement of Sugar Refinery Cloths Replacement of Sugar Feeds in a Sugar Refinery Group Replacement: Optimal Interval between Group Replacements of Items Subject to Failure The Lamp Replacement Problem Statement of the Problem Construction of the Model Numerical Example Further Comments An Application: Optimal Replacement Interval for a Group of 40 Valves in a Compressor Further Replacement Models Multistage Replacement Optional Policies Repairable Systems Case Study on Project Prioritization, Trend Tests, Weibull Analysis, and Optimizing Component Replacement Intervals Introduction Optimal Preventive Replacement Age for Major Components Optimal Preventive Replacement Age for Item Parts (Minor Components) Conclusion for Item Parts Spare Parts Provisioning: Preventive Replacement Spares Introduction Construction of the Model The Constant Interval Model The Age-Based Preventive Replacement Model Numerical Example Constant-Interval Policy Age-Based Policy Further Comments An Application: Cylinder Head Replacement Constant-Interval Policy Spare Parts Provisioning: Insurance Spares Introduction Classes of Components Nonrepairable Components Normal Distribution Approach Poisson Distribution Approach Repairable Components Cost Model 83

5 X Contents Further Comments An Application: Electric Motors Solving the Constant-Interval and Age-Based Models Graphically: Use of Glasser's Graphs Introduction Using Glasser's Graphs Numerical Example Calculation of the Savings Solving the Constant-Interval and Age-Based Models Using OREST Software Introduction Using OREST Further Comments 91 Problems 91 References 99 Chapter 3 Inspection Decisions Introduction Optimal Inspection Frequency: Maximization of Profit Statement of the Problem Construction of the Model Numerical Example Further Comments Optimal Inspection Frequency: Minimization of Downtime Statement of the Problem Construction of the Model Numerical Example Further Comments An Application: Optimal Vehicle Fleet Inspection Schedule Optimal Inspection Interval to Maximize the Availability of Equipment Used in Emergency Conditions, Such as a Protective Device Statement of the Problem Construction of the Model Numerical Example Further Comments Exponential Failure Distribution and Negligible Time Required to Perform Inspections and Repairs/Replacements An Application: Pressure Safety Valves in an Oil and Gas Field Optimizing CBM Decisions Introduction The Proportional Hazards Model 119

6 Contents xl Blending Hazard and Economics: Optimizing the CBM Decision Applications Food Processing: Use of Vibration Monitoring Coal Mining: Use of Oil Analysis Transportation: Use of Visual Inspection Further Comments Software for CBM Optimization Event Data 127 Problems 129 References 133 Chapter 4 Capital Equipment Replacement Decisions Introduction Optimal Replacement Interval for Capital Equipment: Minimization of Total Cost Statement of the Problem Construction of the Model Numerical Example Further Comments Applications Mobile Equipment: Vehicle Fleet Replacement Fixed Equipment: Internal Combustion Engine Optimal Replacement Interval for Capital Equipment: Maximization of Discounted Benefits Statement of the Problem Construction of the Model First Cycle of Operation Second Cycle of Operation Third Cycle of Operation nth Cycle of Operation Numerical Example Further Comments Proof that Optimization over a Long Period Is Not Equivalent to Optimization per Unit Time When Discounting Is Included Optimal Replacement Interval for Capital Equipment Whose Planned Utilization Pattern Is Variable: Minimization of Total Cost Statement of the Problem Construction of the Model Consider a Replacement Cycle of n Years

7 ;ii Contents Numerical Example Further Comments An Application: Establishing the Economic Life of a Fleet of Buses Optimal Replacement Policy for Capital Equipment Taking into Account Technological Improvement: Finite Planning Horizon Statement of the Problem Construction of the Model Numerical Example Further Comments An Application: Replacing Current Mining Equipment with a Technologically Improved Version Optimal Replacement Policy for Capital Equipment Taking into Account Technological Improvement: Infinite Planning Horizon Statement of the Problem Construction of the Model Numerical Example Further Comments An Application: Repair versus Replace of a Front-End Loader Software for Economic Life Optimization Introduction Using PERDEC and AGE/CON Further Comments 167 Problems 168 References 177 Chapter 5 Maintenance Resource Requirements Introduction Facilities for Maintenance within an Organization The Combined Use of the Facilities within an Organization and Outside Resources Queuing Theory Preliminaries Queuing Systems Queuing Theory Results Single-Channel Queuing System Multichannel Queuing Systems Optimal Number of Workshop Machines to Meet a Fluctuating Workload Statement of the Problem Construction of the Model Numerical Example 185

8 Contents xiii Further Comments Applications Optimizing the Backlog Crew Size Optimization Optimal Mix of Two Classes of Similar Equipment (Such as Medium/Large Lathes) to Meet a Fluctuating Workload Statement of the Problem Construction of the Model Logic Flowchart Obtaining Necessary Information and Constructing the Model Numerical Example Further Comments Applications Establishing the Optimal Number of Lathes in a Steel Mill Balancing Maintenance Cost and Reliability in Thermal Generating Station Rightsizing a Fleet of Equipment: An Application An Application: Fleet Size in an Open-Pit Mine Optimal Size of a Maintenance Workforce to Meet a Fluctuating Workload, Taking Account of Subcontracting Opportunities Statement of the Problem Construction of the Model Numerical Example Further Comments An Example: Number of Vehicles to Have in a Fleet (Such as a Courier Fleet) The Lease or Buy Decision Statement of the Problem Solution of the Problem Use of Retained Earnings Use of Borrowed Funds Leasing Conclusion Further Comments 216 Problems 216 References 217 Appendix 1: Statistics Primer 219 Appendix 2: WeibuII Analysis 233 Appendix 3: Maximum Likelihood Estimator 275 Appendix 4: Markov Chains 279

9 xiv Contents Appendix 5: Knowledge Elicitation 283 Appendix 6: Time Value of Money Discounted Cash Flow Analysis 295 Appendix 7: List of Applications of Maintenance Decision Optimization Models 305 Appendix 8: Ordinates of the Standard Normal Distribution 309 Appendix 9: Areas in the Tail of the Standard Normal Distribution 311 Appendix 10: Values of Gamma Function 315 Appendix 11: Median Ranks Table 317 Appendix 12: Five Percent Ranks Table 319 Appendix 13: Ninety-Five Percent Ranks Table 321 Appendix 14: Critical Values for the Kolmogorov-Smirnov Statistic (da) 323 Appendix 15: Answers to Problems 325 Index 331

@CRC Press. Discrete Mathematics. with Ducks. sarah-marie belcastro. let this be your watchword. serious mathematics treated with levity

@CRC Press. Discrete Mathematics. with Ducks. sarah-marie belcastro. let this be your watchword. serious mathematics treated with levity Discrete Mathematics with Ducks sarah-marie belcastro serious mathematics treated with levity let this be your watchword @CRC Press Taylor & Francis Croup Boca Raton London New York CRC Press is an imprint