Rotor Life Assessment

Transcription

1 Rotor Life Assessment

2 Safe Harbor Disclosure Some of the information contained in this document contains "forward-looking statements". In many cases, you can identify forward-looking statements by terminology such as "may," "will," "should," "expects," "plans," "anticipates," "believes," "estimates," "predicts," "potential," or "continue," or the negative of such terms and other comparable terminology. These forward-looking statements are only predictions and as such inherently included risks and uncertainties. Actual events or results may differ materially as a result of risks facing Dresser-Rand Company (D-R) or actual results differing from the assumptions underlying such statements. These forward-looking statements are made only as of the date of this presentation, and D-R undertakes no obligation to update or revise the forward-looking statements, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise. All forward-looking statements are expressly qualified in their entirety by the "Risk Factors" and other cautionary statements included in D-R's annual, quarterly and special reports, proxy statements and other public filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission and other factors not known to D-R. Your decision to remain and receive the information about to be presented to you shall constitute your unconditional acceptance to the foregoing. 2

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4 IGT Rotor Life Experience IGT Aging Fleet OEM Recommendations Replace, Extend or Decommission GE TIL-1576: 144,000 (F-class) -or- 200,000 FH / 5000 FS Non-GE: 100,000 EOH GER3620 Alstom GT24 Odometer 4

5 Rotor Life Drivers Wearout Mechanisms, Risks Rotors are mechanical and will eventually fail Many factors determine when Starts/hours, temperature, material variation, handling damage, etc. Risk tolerance should consider failure consequence LCF Fracture Hold-time LCF Creep-Fatigue % OEM Design Criteria Starts Hours Creep Corrosion Wear 5

6 Not All Failures Are Created Equal CONSEQUENCE Plant Destroyed Extended Forced Outage Forced Outage Trip Vibration Not Detected Bore Burst Bolthole Failure Wheelpost Failure Compressor Blade Failure RISK TOLERANCE Cracked Counterbore Ligament The effort to manage risk should correspond to the impact of failure Fear of the unknown can drive un-needed expense Risk that s understood can be managed intelligently 6

7 Managing Rotor Life So, your parts are getting old. What to do? Ignore roll the dice Inspect looks and feels pretty good what could have been missed? Evaluate odds are X and the options are A, B and C 7

8 Technology s Solution Execute Standard OEM Process 8

9 Technology s Solution Customer Inputs Engineering Assessment Hours baseload, turndown CAD Geometry Starts quantity & type (slow, normal, fast) 2D Mesh/Model Trips/Load Rejections Cyclic Operational Missions Shutdown time between restarts Flow Analysis Ambient Environment Seasonal Operation Corrosive Environment Design Configuration NDT Visual Dimensional Penetrant Eddy Current Advance UT 2D Heat Transfer (Steady State and Transient) 2D Structural (Transient & Speed Only) 3D Structural (limiting features only) Life Calculations & Probabilistic Analysis Inspection Findings Final Assessment Metallography Replicas Microstructure Hardness 9

10 Technology s Solution Engineering Evaluation Process Summary Evaluate prior and projected operation Perform detailed non-destructive evaluation (NDE), metallography and part inspections Apply established analysis processes & methods for life assessment - provide probabilistic evaluation Refurbish, repair, reassemble, balance & ship 10

11 Technologies Solution Rotor Lifetime Extension (LTE) Inspection Key Considerations And I Worry About.. Rotor Construction Original Manufacturing and Inspection Processes Original Inspection (NDT) Accept/Reject Criteria Residual Subsurface Flaws from the Manufacturing Process Small Subsurface Defects Linking to Critical Flaw Size Alloys of Construction Under LCF Loading Original Heat Treatments Turbine Model Fleet-wide Failure/Damage History Unit Operating History Creep Damage Metallurgical Changes over Time Critical Areas of Each Component Effects of Prior Events 11

12 Technologies Solution Rotor Lifetime Extension (LTE) Inspection The Inspection Protocol State of the Art Volumetric Ultrasonic Testing Phased Array Probe Technology Advanced 3-D Signal Processing Digital Data Archiving Eddy Current Inspection Fluorescent Magnetic Particle Inspection Visual Inspection Dimensional Inspection Metallurgical Evaluation Hardness Measurements 12

13 Technology s Solution Rotor Lifetime Extension (LTE) Inspection Critical Areas! Wheel Bore Regions Bucket/Blade Dovetail Fits Bolt Holes Bolt Circle Contact Faces Torque Transmission Features Rabbet Fits Curvic/Hirth Couplings Wheel Web Regions (not directly exposed to cooling air flow) Seal Features (Retention Grooves, Extensions) 13

14 Technology s Solution Rotor Lifetime Extension (LTE) Inspection Metallurgical Evaluation and Hardness Testing Initial Background Studies And Literature Search Alloy Type and Initial Manufacturing Considerations Heat Treatment Condition Areas Prone to Heat Related Changes Microstructural Assessment Replica Methodology Bore and Rim Areas, Fore and Aft Optical Examination up to 1000X Hardness Testing Same Areas Assessed Metallographically 14

15 Technology s Solution Rotor Lifetime Extension (LTE) Inspection Interpretation of Results, Integration with Engineering Evaluation Review of Findings What Indications Have Been Detected, and Are They Relevant to Continued Service of the Component? Have Any Metallurgical Changes Occurred? Results Interpretation by Experienced Engineering Staff Integration of Findings with Engineering Depth Assessment Disposition of Findings Analytically 3D view of Reference Reflectors, Shear Wave Scan distance 1/32 dia. hole Scan width 1/16 dia. hole Multiple reflections as transducer is moved 15

16 Technologies Solution Engineering Evaluation Key Engineering Capabilities Reverse Engineering FEM Analysis Thermal and Mechanical Material Testing & Characterization Life Assessment LCF, Creep, Crack Propagation 16

17 Technologies Solution Engineering Evaluation Determine Risk - Analytical Approach Assess sources of variation & calculate probability Assess risk of missed defect during next interval Normal distribution Probability of Failure (Analysis with Inspection) Damage Tolerance (Inspection & Analysis-based) Weibull distribution Operational variation hours -or- starts 17

18 Technologies Solution Standard Rotor Refurbishment Pre-incoming worksheet provided Incoming inspection Refurb recommendation/scope Disassemble Visual & NDE inspection Advanced rotor life inspections Engineering assessment and recommendations Repairs performed, as needed Runout, balance, stack, confirm, prep, ship One-stop Shop Capabilities: Complete in-house material testing, heat treat and coating services On-site inspection On-site NDT Level 3 Engineering staff w/ OEM resources available 18

19 Rotor Life Evaluation Summary 19

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