Yannis Charalabidis Assistant Professor, University of the Aegean Manager, Greek Interoperability Centre

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1 Yannis Charalabidis Assistant Professor, University of the Aegean Manager, Greek Interoperability Centre

2 Software engineer, National Technical University of Athens PhD in complex information systems, NTUA 7 years a researcher in RTD projects for businesses and governments 7 years in the software industry (Greece, Netherlands, Germany Poland). Managing director of Baan-Singular ERP company Already 4 years in Uni Aegean, teaching and researching on egovernance (another 3 remaining ) The next 7 years? My aim for the day: to give you food for thought. Hold on

3 Rising number of tipping points, unpredictable black swan events: (financial and economic crisis; terrorist attacks, climate change) Can t be adequately addressed by traditional econometric models Explosion in authorship, cocreation and collaboration Mass collaboration and participation Open data, open innovation models Government 2.0 More intelligence and more stupidity, more signal and more noise Politicians are not used to evidence-based decisions

4 Society: increasingly interconnected, flexible, fast-evolving, unpredictable Governance: often silosbased, linear, obscure, hierarchical, over-simplified Policies, Disciplines and Actors are isolated Policies Health R&D Social Disciplines Economics Mathematics ICT Actors Government Citizens Industry

5 Hard Web Technologies Web 2.0 Argument Visualization Mixed Reality Pattern Recognition Serious Games Systems & Services Technologies Public Sector Service Systems Workflow Systems Enterprise Resource Management Cloud computing Electronic Participation Translation Systems Social Networks PS Knowledge Management Legal Structures Management Business Intelligence Data & Opinion Mining Soft Behavioral Modelling Societal Modelling Social Simulation Social Informatics Simulation Forecasting - Backcasting Optimization Systems Dynamics Adaptive Models Management Tools Society Administration

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7 A roadmap for ICT-enabled governance research, beyond 2010, to address global challenges: What are the new needed research directions? How should we team-up among governments, industry and citizens? When should we expect results?

8 More people involved (collaborative governance) More data available (the data deluge) More accurate and analytical, modeling and simulation tools

9 State of the art: research push Gaps Future scenarios: demand pull Grand challenges (draft) Research challenges Research challenges Research roadmap (final)

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11 High Openness & Transparency: extreme 1 Self-Service Governance Open Governance Low Integration of Policy Intelligence extreme 0 High Integration of Policy Intelligence extreme 1 Privatised Governance Leviathan Governance Low Openness & Transparency : extreme 0

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13 Today s policy modeling: Human effort based Using mainly econometric models and overlooking human behaviour Social simulation and agent-based models are marginal, blackbox, fragmented and single-purpose Progress in modeling software has not matched advances in computing power. Designing, reviewing and updating formal models from qualitative and quantitative data is costly.

14 Integrated, composable and reusable models models composability and interoperability (between software and modelling methods) to build on existing models Short term research: definition of procedures for model composition and repositories Long term research: model interoperability and SOA / GRID Collaborative modelling Intuitive model building and simulation tools to allow all stakeholders to take part in transparent formal modelling at large scale Short term: transparent and intuitive modelling interfaces Long-term: mass-collaboration modelling framework Easy access to information and knowledge creation methods of information elicitation that, during the overall model building and use processes, will help decision makers to learn how a certain system works and ultimately gain insights (knowledge) and understanding (apply the extracted knowledge from those processes) in order to successfully implement a desired policy. Short-term: interoperability of data sources, information elicitation Long-term: user-behavior information generation; mass-interactive learning environments

15 Model validation Reliability of models plays a crucial role in policy modeling and simulation. A policy model should be developed for a specific purpose (or context) and its validity is to be determined with respect to that purpose (or context). Therefore, specific and integrated techniques and ICT tools are required to be developed for policy modeling, (conceptual and software validation ) Short-term: Consolidation of validation techniques Long-term: complex and large scale model validation; artificial intelligence incorporated in validation systems Interactive simulation It allows a researcher to interactively control simulations and perform data analysis while avoiding many of the pitfalls associated with the traditional batch/post processing cycle. Short-term: Usability Long-term: Input/output system integration, Computational steering Output analysis and knowledge synthesis the analysis and integration of feedbacks in modelling and simulation process Short-term: Policy model simulation, ranking techniques Long-term: sophisticated variance estimators, automated output analysis

16 The enlightened citizen The everyday citizen Conversation Action Today Layer Collaboration and Action Analysis and representation Data collection and validation Research Challenge User-generated simulation and gaming for public action New institutional design for collaborative governance Collaborative visual analytics for policy-making Peer-to-peer public opinion mining Federated dynamic identity management Real-time, high-quality, reusable open government data Privacy compliant participatory sensing for real-time policy design and evaluation

17 Privacy-compliant participatory sensing for real-time policymaking Dramatically increasing the data availability for policy evaluation while maintaining privacy and ensuring policy inference Short term: combination of sensing with social network analysis, data quality verification, context verification; Long term: privacy by design; enhanced analytical techniques to respond to subtle events; data collaboration protocols Real-time, high-quality, reusable open government data Simplifying and lowering costs of real-time open data publication, ensuring data quality and advanced privacy monitoring Short-term: data vocabularies; data curating tools; easy linked data publication Long-term: on the fly data quality agreements, web of data, real-time validation and publication

18 Federated dynamic identity management and privacy control Necessary to ensure trustful collaboration, federated across country, with multiple levels of security for different services, relying on authentic sources, usable in private sector context. Short-term: Dynamic user-controlled data disclosure; culturallydependent identity systems; trust negotiation Long-term: context dependent identity management Peer-to-peer public opinion mining The limits of human attention, combined to the existing simple interfaces available for browsing discussion and comments, often leads to low levels of engagement and flaming wars, driving to polarisation of arguments and enhanced risks of conflicts. Short-term research: computer-generated cross-language policy corpora; algorithms for policy statistical analysis; comment recommendation algorithms Long-term research: integration with social network analysis; audiovisual mining; peer-to-peer usable opinion mining tools;

19 Intuitive, collaborative visual analytics of data for policy-making Visual analytics is particularly effective when dealing with complex and non-predictable patterns, such as those related to assessing and anticipating public policy impact, but is not formalised in the policy context Short-term research: Collaborative platform display; Interaction between visualization and models; Visualization infrastructures for policy modelling issues Long-term research: Bias identification; learning adaptive algorithm for users intent; intuitive affordable interfaces for citizens User-generated simulation and gaming tools for public action Simulation and serious gaming impact on personal incentives to action and showing long-term and systemic effects of individual choices, but lack open scenarios based on personal and policy decision as well as usability Short-term: kit-based citizens-controlled simulation and gaming; integration with policy models Long-term: augmented reality in policy gaming and simulation New institutional design of collaborative governance

20 Present: Traditional public services have not delivered on their promise for time, quality, cost, or overall return on investment Citizens rarely have access to personalised services in the way they want Service design cannot tap into citizen or SME s productivity. Services practically remain the same as new service creation is hindered Future: Services are converging and moving from the physical into the digital world, universally accessible on any device from all social groups Government clouds are overcoming interoperability, privacy and security challenges and provide the base for high automation in public sectors Future Internet appears as a key enabler for new public service systems, drastically altering productivity, speed, cost and overall quality

21 Electricity Provision Ubiquitous nature: electricity is available everywhere, if you have a proper line and device to connect Usability: it is simple to connect to electricity network, provided you have an electric device with a standard plug (different from country to country, sometimes) Federation: you don t really know where / how energy is created within a complex network that cross borders, sectors Co-generation: you can be a customer and a provider, at the same time De-regulation: although Governments set the regulations and may own some utilities, the market is competitive Service Provision Multi-channel service provision Simplicity, interoperability, inclusion Public Clouds Service co-creation Service supply deregulation See also 6 common characteristics of service utilities (Rappa, 2004) : Necessity, Reliability, Usability, Utilisation, Scalability and Exclusivity.

22 Citizens Citizenship Health Education Work and Social Security Representation / Participation Finance Information Enterprises, SME s, VSE s Finance Growth Work and Social Security Representation Information Service Provision Administrations CoreServices Registry Services Public Sector (web) Services Planning Monitoring Open Data Other / Cross Country GSU s PanEuropean Core Services PanEuropean Registry Services Cross-country services Highly automated cross-gsu Services Private Service Utilities Service Consumption Service Creation GSU Core Services Identification Security Communication Storage Execution Open Data Service Aggregation Registry Services Citizen Registry Health Registry Financial Registry Cadastre Social Security Education Professional Chamber Complex Services Taxation Health Education Social Security Benefits / subsidies Representation / Participation Information Services Open data Semantic services Knowledge management

23 User-driven innovation shaping Public Services Service co-design, co-generation, mashing and deployment Citizen generated ideas for new services Change the DNA of Public Services Cloud based service provision, high automation, interoperability Multichannel provision, internet of things Services in one second, one stop, at one euro cost Digital public services value proposition for all Reshape digital public services objectives, scope and means Create a value proposition model for all stakeholders Massive Public Information as a Service Utilisation of public information and knowledge

24 PLAN Citizens ORGANISE CONTROL Policy Definition GC 1 State Modelling, Simulation, Pre - Assessment Service Provision, Open Data, Post- GC 2 GC 3 assessment Policy Implementa tion LEAD Citizens

25 Present: Although a lot of solutions are being developed and applied, there is a lack of systematisation of the domain, hindering re-use of practices, gradual refinement and evolution Relations with neighboring domains are not explored, resulting in unnecessary duplications or lack of cooperation Future: ICT-enabled governance is maturing into a well-established discipline, integrating social sciences, management, operational research and ICT Classification of research approaches, applications, problems and solution paths supports gradual evolution The research community is constantly updating the objectives and challenges of the domain, utilising new ICT developments for the good of the society

26 Multi-disciplinary issues and relations with neighbouring domains Metrics and assessment models, Decision Support, Modelling & Simulation Tools (supporting problem-solution relation, utilising BPM/BPR tools, vertical approaches) Formal methods and tools for categorising and analysing the concepts, the problems and solution paths in ICT-enabled governance

27 3 large experts workshops: Samos restricted workshop in July 2010 (over 100 participants) Roadmap Validation workshop in conjunction with the IFIP EGOV Conference 2010, on August 30th, 2010 (over 50 participants) Networking Session (Large Expert Workshop) in conjunction with the ICT 2010 Conference in Brussels on September 27th, 2010 (over 100 participants) Online deliberation at (over 500 votes) Validation by the Experts Scientific Committee of the full draft of the initial roadmap Ongoing discussion on LinkedIn group Average distribution: 30% industry, 10% public administration, 60% researchers

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29 Time Visibility Visual Analytics Service Co-creation Linked Data Gov Cloud (SaaS) Model-Based Decision Making Open data Opinion Mining Social Media in Policy Making Legal Informatics Argument Visualisation Societal Simulation Semantic Interoperability Organisational Interoperability Gov Cloud (PaaS) Instant, proactive Service Delivery for all Gov Cloud (IaaS) eparticipation Service Delivery Platforms evoting Mobile Government Web Services Science Base for ICT-enabled Governance ICT-enabled historiography Technical Interoperability Federated eid Inflated Expectations Disillusionment Productivity

30 PADGETS: Policy Making through Social Media Interoperability ENGAGE: Open, Linked Governmental Data for scientists and citizens NOMAD: Non-moderated opinion mining (the opinion web) starting October 2011 CROSSOVER: A global think-tank on ICT-enabled Governance starting October 2011

31 We need a totally different set of tools for evidencebased decision making by governments Societal Simulation, Data and Opinion Mining, Service Co-creation will be the next big things for governments that wish to make a difference We need to go beyond pure ICT approaches and embark in a multi-disciplinary journey. That s why we need a science base for ICT-enabled Governance But most importantly

32 egovernance Research is about our children s future: It is not enough to do things right we should do the right things