Modeling the Startup Dynamics of the Skolkovo Institute of Science and Technology (SkolTech)

Transcription

1 Modeling the Startup Dynamics of the Skolkovo Institute of Science and Technology (SkolTech) Eric Rebentisch, MIT Dmitriy Lyan, MIT Raafat Zaini, WPI 4 December 2013 Rebentisch, Lyan, Zaini Dec2013

2 Overview Background on SkolTech Stakeholder analysis Dynamic model Discussion 2

3 SKOLTECH OVERVIEW 3

4 SkolTech Overview A permanent, modern, international university with a physical campus for research and education in Skolkovo, Russia. five primary education and research programs: Information Science and Technology Energy Science and Technology Biomedical Science and Technology Space Science and Technology, Civilian Nuclear Science and Technology. Each program supports Master s and Ph.D. degrees A Center for Entrepreneurship and Innovation (CEI) within Skoltech provides education, research, and administrative functions related to entrepreneurship and innovation. By 2020, Skoltech plans to have its own campus completed, which will host 1,200 students, 200 faculty, 15 research centers and 400 postdocs. 4

5 Background on SkolTech Origins Skoltech was founded in October 2011 by a collaboration of nine Russian institutions and organizations. Skoltech then signed a trilateral agreement with the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) and the Skolkovo Foundation for a three year collaboration to build capacity in education, research, and entrepreneurship programs at Skoltech. Purpose The university s aim is to catalyze research, teaching and innovation around pressing global issues, focusing primarily on biomedicine, energy, information technology, nuclear science and space, as well as entrepreneurship. 1 st classes at Moscow campus in September 2013 for 50 incoming students The inaugural class of 20 students last year studied abroad at partner schools around the world including 12 who studied at MIT. 5

6 SkolTech Skolkovo Institute of Science and Technology Definitions Skolkovo Foundation Skolkovo Foundation is a non-profit organization founded in 2010 and charged by Russian President Dmitry Medvedev with being principally responsible for the Russian Skolkovo Innovation Center in Skolkovo near Moscow. Skolkovo is governed by a special law that provides companies special economic conditions for running their businesses. More than 300 companies have received the status of Skolkovo resident. MIT Skoltech Initiative Established in 2011 to support MIT s multi-year collaboration in building Skoltech. The office coordinates MIT support with the design of educational curricula and research programs, innovation activities, administrative policies and structures, recruiting processes, and campus operations and infrastructure. Skolkovo Innovation Center A 100-acre industrial park and business incubator billed as Russia s version of Silicon Valley. CREI Centers for Research, Education and Innovation, about half a dozen research initiatives to forge strong international research partnerships to build capacity at Skoltech in faculty, researchers, students, and facilities. CEI Center for Entrepreneurship and Innovation that supports the CREIs and Russian industry and will integrate the three pillars for entrepreneurship and innovation (E&I): Education, Research, and Commercialization. 6

7 SkolTech Architecture 7

8 STAKEHOLDER ANALYSIS (From Hess, Lukinova, Lyan, and Naumov May 2013 presentation and September 2012 draft report) 8

9 Stakeholder Analysis Method Identify Stakeholders Identify Needs (inputs) & Value Delivery (outputs) 47 interviews conducted representing 12 stakeholder groups Identify Flows Connect Value Delivery (outputs) to Needs (inputs) Prioritize Flows Run Stakeholder Value Network Analysis (SVNA) Software Analyze Results Identify Stakeholders Identify Needs & VD Identify Flows Prioritize Flows Run Software Analyze Results

10 Identification of Key Stakeholders Approach: Identified these high-level stakeholders before the data collection phase. Met with SkolTech top management to narrow list of SkolTech stakeholders. Used the data from interviews to refine the stakeholder list. 10

11 Stakeholders Grouped and Defined Stakeholder Stakeholder Description Skoltech SkF RF Institutions RF Gov Public/Media International Industry Donors Skolkovo Institute of Science and Technology Skolkovo Foundation Russian universities (e.g. MEPhI, PhysTech, MSU, BMSTU), Russian research institutes (e.g. Russian Academy of Science) Russian federal government, Russian local governments (e.g. Moscow city government) Russian public, Russian media International universities (e.g. MIT, Stanford, Univ. Cambridge), International funding agencies (e.g. NSF, ERC), International governments, Russian diaspora Russian startups, Russian small/medium/large companies, Russian state enterprises, Multinational corporations in Russia Private donors

12 Stakeholder Value Flows Defined SkolTech SkF RF Institutions RF Government Public/Media International Industry Donors 12

13 Example: Skolkovo Foundation Stakeholder Value Flows

14 Results: All 46 Flows in the Top 100 Loops

15 Results: Stakeholders Weight Stakeholder Network Top 100 (first appears) Skoltech 94% (1) SkF 94% (1) RF Institutions 92% (14) RF Gov 80% (1) Public/Media 58% (236) International 57% (294) Industry 36% (1) Donors 1% (295) Note: Focal Analysis generated & analyzed 3,011,069 loops, and the Network Analysis generated & analyzed 3,015,794 loops.

16 Results: Skoltech Value Delivery (Weighted) Access to International (To: Industry) Enhanced Innovation System (To: SkF) Reports of Substantial Progress (To: SkF) New Tools & Methods (To: Industry) Technology, Know how, and IP (To: Industry) Role Models (To: RF Institutions) Prospective Students (To: International) Knowledge Exchange (To: International) Role Models (To: Public/Media) Educated Leaders (To: Industry) Knowledge Exchange (To: Industry) Reports of Substantial Progress (To: RF Gov) Research & Education Funding (To: International) Knowledge Exchange (To: RF Institutions) Political Support (To: SkF) Reports of Substantial Progress (To: Public/Media) Skilled Workforce (To: Industry) Venture Creation (To: Industry) Regulatory Compliance (To: RF Gov) Policy Advising (To: RF Gov) Project Consulting (To: RF Gov) Prospective Faculty (To: RF Institutions) Prospective Students (To: RF Institutions) Access to Russia (To: International) Prospective Faculty (To: International) Access to International (To: RF Institutions) Educated Innovators & Entrepreneurs (To: Industry) Strategic Guidance (To: RF Gov) Acad. & Sci. Resources & Infrastruct (To: RF Institutions) Recognition (To: RF Institutions) Research & Education Funding (To: RF Institutions) Enhanced Innovation System (To: Industry) Political Support (To: RF Gov) Salary (To: Public/Media) Recognition (To: Donors) Payment for Goods & Services (To: Industry) 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

17 SKOLTECH STRATEGY (From June 2013 presentation) 17

18 Skoltech Accelerating Innovation Ускоритель Инноваций Building the Community Updated Strategic Plan for Edward Crawley June 2013

19 Executive Summary Skoltech s High Level Value Propositions Skoltech will produce ideas and talent to contribute to Russian economic growth and modernization Creating new technologies, know how and intellectual property Developing new tools and methods leading to products Creating patterns for translating inventions into innovation, and competitive new company formation Catalyzing new companies Providing access to international industrial competencies, and helping develop strategic Russian industrial capabilities at or above international standards Helping to improve the rating of Russia as a place to do business Contributing to national health Skoltech will contribute to strengthening the international prestige of Russian science, and raising the international ranking of Russian universities 19

20 Skoltech Mission Accelerating Innovation To have fundamental educational, scholarly and economic impact in the Russian Federation and around the world, By accelerating innovation: building integrated research/innovation programs to effectively meet the needs of industry and society, and educating graduate students to be leaders in translating knowledge from science to innovation, Using a fusion of exceptional Russian and international talent, key partnerships, and a world class infrastructure, all embedded in the Skolkovo innovation ecosystem. Skoltech is a new model of educational institution 20

21 Principal Outputs of the Institute Models, Networks, Reputation Other RF universities Scholarly impact: Ideas, Knowledge, Experience Innovation Centered Institute the Skoltech community Educational impact: Talent Industry Innovation impact: Know how, Process, Technology, IP, Co s, Prototypes Government Policy Setting, Agenda Setting Innovation Culture, Access 21

22 Goals of Skoltech Build a community 200 professors in science, engineering and innovation, all with a view toward commercializing their work 1200 students, 440 post docs, visitors and staff, all researchers and innovators Produce the value related outputs: Educate young people to have a strong command of science, and a demonstrated working knowledge of how to commercialize scientific knowledge, and the abilities and inclination to lead in change processes Produce scientific and engineering thought, ideas and results of the highest international standards Produce technological outputs results specifically intended to strengthen innovation in Russia Making Skoltech the most economically impactful institute of science and technology in the world 22

23 Value Chain Processes: Research Linked to Innovation Research Goal: Discover new ideas and develop novel technologies that address the pressing needs of members of society and society as a whole, and which build upon fundamental science and technology, yet are guided by a consideration of innovation. Innovation Goal: Make Skoltech an engine of economic growth by rapidly moving ideas to impact, by engaging Skoltech students and faculty in entrepreneurship and innovation, and by accelerating research outcomes toward commercialization and broader social impact. Engage industry to understand needs Build Teams to address problems Research with a consideration of use Knowledge Exchange 23

24 Value Chain Processes: Education Embedded With Innovation Education Goal: Educate students in integrated science, technology and innovation based Master s and Ph.D. programs, empowering a new Skolkovo generation with the skills, knowledge and competence to enable them to bridge the gap between fundamental science and innovation, to become transformative members of society, and to make economic and social impact in the Russian Federation and around the world. Student Goal: Attract, support and nourish an outstanding cadre of students who have the capacity to become agents of knowledge exchange, innovators, company founders, and leaders who will have impact on the Russian Federation and around the world. Attract/Admit Students Learning Experience Place in Network 24

25 Value Chain Processes: Building a Faculty Community With Shared Values Faculty Goal: Attract, promote and nurture at Skoltech an internationally prominent body of scholars, successful innovators, and young rising stars, who are dedicated to effective education and research with a consideration of innovation. They will be the key reasons Skoltech achieves top academic prominence internationally and serves as a model for the integration of research, education and innovation. Attract Mentor and Develop Grow and Broaden Lead Change 25

26 The Role of MIT Skoltech smajor International Partner MIT is pervasively involved in every aspect of Skoltech s development Recruiting and selecting faculty Planning education Delivering innovation program Selecting CREIs Recruiting students Writing policies Planning campus Establishing endowment program, etc, etc There are many intangible benefits of MIT s involvement, the most important of which is instant reputation

27 Measures of Success Agreed Set Number of professors Number of students Non budget financing Direction of construction Educational programs Research programs Innovation programs New international practices networked to Russian universities Number of events with industry 27

28 Summary of Strategy Outcomes Recognize the five value outcomes of the Institute talent, science, innovation, impact on other universities and policy Plus less tangible value outcomes Programs Build key value processes into programs in research & innovation and education People Attract targeted 20+ top world class scientists Attract the best Russian graduate students and retain them in Russia Partners Build a network with MIT and international partners Build the Skoltech Network to help strengthen other Russian universities Infrastructure Build the campus, community buildings and cyber infrastructure Create a stable financial base and business model 28

29 PRELIMINARY MODELING OF THE DYNAMICS OF A STARTUP UNIVERSITY Based on the work of Zaini and Lyan 29

30 Modeling a Complex Emergent Enterprise How can you operationalize an understanding of stakeholder values and the processes that affect their delivery? Objective: Build on stakeholder analysis work to study the impact of strategic initiatives, resourcing policies and incentive structures on dynamic development of SkolTech and its ability to delivery value to its key stakeholders. Develop a simulation model that captures the impact of resourcing policies, incentive structures and strategic initiatives on SkolTech s short and long term performance Perform scenario analysis and come up with a set of recommendations on strategic initiatives and resourcing policies, which maximize SkolTech s ability to deliver value to its key stakeholders. Modeling based on stakeholder analysis and strategy documents from SkolTech. 30

31 What Drives These Outcomes? Financial Resources Partnerships Hope (solid curve) Fear (dotted curve) Academics Performance Inauguration 10 years Vision Realized

32 Top level dynamic hypotheses Top level: dynamic relationships between performance, academics, partnerships, and financial resources 2 nd level, Performance : Innovation, impact, and reputation dynamics 2 nd level, Academics : dynamic relationships between academic staff, quality, and facilities 3 rd level, Academic staff : students, faculty, and research teams, and faculty load dynamics

33 Dynamic relationships between performance, academics, partnerships, and financial resources

34 Performance : Innovation, impact, and reputation dynamics

35 Academics : dynamic relationships between academic staff, quality, and facilities

36 Academic staff : students, faculty, and research teams, and faculty load dynamics

37 Top level dynamic hypotheses Top level: dynamic relationships between performance, academics, partnerships, and financial resources 2 nd level, Performance : Innovation, impact, and reputation dynamics 2 nd level, Academics : dynamic relationships between academic staff, quality, and facilities 3 rd level, Academic staff : students, faculty, and research teams, and faculty load dynamics

38 Model Sectors Growth Targets Quality standards Master Students PhD Students PostDocs Professionals Alumni/dropouts International Partners Industrial Partners Russian Universities Government Funds Non-budget Funds Licensing fees and Royalties Operating Budget Budget allocations Faculty Visitor Faculty Research staff Facilities Research Facilities Students Quality Faculty Quality Graduates Quality Publication Quality Research Team Productivity Reputation Word Of Mouth Team composition Submitted, Approved, and Funded Projects Projects underdevelopment Developed project Commercialized projects Entrepreneurs Startups Matured Businesses Industrial workforce Brain Drain Academics Demand for graduates

39 Key Stocks and Flows Partnerships Attrition Rate Growth Rate + <Annual Spending> R + Annual Revenues + Available Budget + Annual Spending + Application Rate + Prospective Students Recruitment Rate Acceptance Rate Prospective Faculty + Research Start Rate + + Students Hiring Rate + Innovative Research Programs Graduation Rate Faculty Alumni Development Rate Turnover Rate Innovation Impact Facilities Stakeholder Expectations - + Change in + Reputation Construction Rate + Reputation R Key Partnerships grow as a function of SkolTech s reputation. The strength of SkolTech s partnerships in turn drive the number and the quality of prospective faculty and students as well as the size of available budget.

40 1. Base case 2. Active Quality and Reputation Impacts 3. Active Quality, Reputation and Budgetary Impacts Operating Dashboard and sample model runs

41 Model Runs The Base Case The model is able to reproduce envisioned growth of students, faculty and facilities.

42 Case 1 &2, number of students and graduates did not change as there was no influence of the drop in quality ( case 2) on students dropouts Case 3 shows a drop in number of students and graduates as financial limitations become effective around 2017 Comparative model runs

43 Comparative model runs Case 2 shows a drop in academic staff since quality drop impacts number of faculty getting tenure. Reputation drop also impacts the ability to hire visitor faculty and research staff, and also weakens the pool of prospective faculty Case 3 shows a turning point in academic staff due to budget limitations and higher production of commercialized projects relative to Case 2 since the limited financial resources could lead to a more selective process of faculty and students which keeps the admission fraction low and maintains quality. Higher quality impacts research team productivity and when combined with proper research funding the progress becomes faster in the innovation pipeline. However, the progress slows down as a result of lower numbers of students and faculty.

44 Comparative model runs Case 2 shows a drop in HR demand by the industry despite keeping a strong growth of startups. Case 3 indicates an increase in HR demand due to a decline in number of prospective employees and a gradual increase in number of startups which still raises questions about the long term sustenance of this approach.

45 Case3: Financial resources impact Limited financial resources although limit aggressive growth could also lead to a more selective students admission and faculty recruitment process that could maintain quality and reputation. Quality and reputation alone can not maintain performance without growing academic staff to have a sensible impact of innovation and the economy.

46 Key Insights From the Model SkolTech s ability to meet its strategic targets relies in part on its capability to rapidly grow its student and faculty population There is a clear tension between the pressure to scale SkolTech s impact and SkolTech s ability to attract and retain exceptional talent. The chicken and egg dilemma of needing brand/reputation to attract talent and needing talent to build reputation is addressed by MIT/SkolTech partnership

47 Refine dynamic model focus and empirical foundation Engage key stakeholders at startups Continue peer review process to ensure quality Next Steps Develop generic structure to enable key stakeholders in startup research universities to understand available options and operating dynamics for sustainable growth Develop theory of transplanting knowledge systems through startup research universities 47

48 QUESTIONS? 48