Economic Perspectives

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1 A journal of the American Economic Association Summer 2015

2 A journal of the American Economic Association Editor Enrico Moretti, University of California at Berkeley Co-editors Gordon Hanson, University of California at San Diego Ulrike Malmendier, University of California at Berkeley Associate Editors Anat Admati, Stanford University Amy Finkelstein, Massachusetts Institute of Technology Adam Looney, US Department of the Treasury Emi Nakamura, Columbia University Richard Newell, Duke University Scott Stern, Massachusetts Institute of Technology Christopher Udry, Yale University Managing Editor Timothy Taylor Assistant Editor Ann Norman Editorial offices: Journal of American Economic Association Publications 2403 Sidney St., #260 Pittsburgh, PA The Journal of gratefully acknowledges the support of Macalester College. Registered in the US Patent and Trademark Office ( ). Copyright 2015 by the American Economic Association; All Rights Reserved. Composed by American Economic Association Publications, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, USA. Printed by R. R. Donnelley Company, Jefferson City, Missouri, 65109, USA. No responsibility for the views expressed by the authors in this journal is assumed by the editors or by the American Economic Association. THE JOURNAL OF ECONOMIC PERSPECTIVES (ISSN ), Summer 2015, Vol. 29, No. 3. The JEP is published quarterly (February, May, August, November) by the American Economic Association, 2014 Broadway, Suite 305, Nashville, TN Annual dues for regular membership are $20.00, $30.00, or $40.00 depending on income; for an additional $15.00, you can receive this journal in print. E-reader versions are free. For details and further information on the AEA go to Periodicals postage paid at Nashville, TN, and at additional mailing offices. POSTMASTER: Send address changes to the Journal of, 2014 Broadway, Suite 305, Nashville, TN Printed in the U.S.A.

3 Contents Volume 29 Number 3 Summer 2015 Symposia Automation and Labor Markets David H. Autor, Why Are There Still So Many Jobs? The History and Future of Workplace Automation...3 Joel Mokyr, Chris Vickers, and Nicolas L. Ziebarth, The History of Technological Anxiety and the Future of Economic Growth: Is This Time Different? Gill A. Pratt, Is a Cambrian Explosion Coming for Robotics? Pre-Analysis Plans in Economics Benjamin A. Olken, Promises and Perils of Pre-Analysis Plans Lucas C. Coffman and Muriel Niederle, Pre-Analysis Plans Have Limited Upside, Especially Where Replications Are Feasible Doing Business Timothy Besley, Law, Regulation, and the Business Climate: The Nature and Influence of the World Bank Doing Business Project...99 Mary Hallward-Driemeier and Lant Pritchett, How Business is Done in the Developing World: Deals versus Rules Articles Christian Thimann, The Microeconomic Dimensions of the Eurozone Crisis and Why European Politics Cannot Solve Them Richard J. Gilbert, E-books: A Tale of Digital Disruption Randall K. Q. Akee, Katherine A. Spilde, and Jonathan B. Taylor, The Indian Gaming Regulatory Act and Its Effects on American Indian Economic Development Features Timothy Taylor, Recommendations for Further Reading Editorial Note: Correction to Jeffrey B. Liebman s Understanding the Increase in Disability Insurance Benefit Receipt in the United States

4 Statement of Purpose The Journal of attempts to fill a gap between the general interest press and most other academic economics journals. The journal aims to publish articles that will serve several goals: to synthesize and integrate lessons learned from active lines of economic research; to provide economic analysis of public policy issues; to encourage cross-fertilization of ideas among the fields of economics; to offer readers an accessible source for state-of-the-art economic thinking; to suggest directions for future research; to provide insights and readings for classroom use; and to address issues relating to the economics profession. Articles appearing in the journal are normally solicited by the editors and associate editors. Proposals for topics and authors should be directed to the journal office, at the address inside the front cover. Policy on Data Availability It is the policy of the Journal of to publish papers only if the data used in the analysis are clearly and precisely documented and are readily available to any researcher for purposes of replication. Details of the computations sufficient to permit replication must be provided. The Editor should be notified at the time of submission if the data used in a paper are proprietary or if, for some other reason, the above requirements cannot be met. Policy on Disclosure Authors of articles appearing in the Journal of are expected to disclose any potential conflicts of interest that may arise from their consulting activities, financial interests, or other nonacademic activities. Journal of Advisory Board Janet Currie, Princeton University Franceso Giavazzi, Bocconi University Claudia Goldin, Harvard University Robert E. Hall, Stanford University Greg Ip, Wall Street Journal Hongbin Li, Tsinghua University John Roemer, Yale University Paul Romer, New York University Howard Rosenthal, New York University

5 The American Economic Association Correspondence relating to advertising, business matters, permission to quote, or change of address should be sent to the AEA business office: edu. Street address: American Economic Association, 2014 Broadway, Suite 305, Nashville, TN For membership, subscriptions, or complimentary JEP for your e-reader, go to the AEA website: Annual dues for regular membership are $20.00, $30.00, or $40.00, depending on income; for an additional fee, you can receive this journal, or any of the Association s journals, in print. Change of address notice must be received at least six weeks prior to the publication month. Copyright 2015 by the American Economic Association. Permission to make dig ital or hard copies of part or all of this work for personal or classroom use is granted without fee provided that copies are not made or distributed for profit or direct commercial advantage and that copies show this notice on the first page or initial screen of a display along with the full citation, including the name of the author. Copyrights for components of this work owned by others than AEA must be honored. Abstracting with credit is permitted. The author has the right to republish, post on servers, redistribute to lists, and use any component of this work in other works. For others to do so requires prior specific permission and/or a fee. Per missions may be requested from the American Economic Association, 2014 Broadway, Suite 305, Nashville, TN 37203; aeainfo@vanderbilt.edu. Founded in 1885 EXECUTIVE COMMITTEE Elected Officers and Members President RICHARD H. THALER, University of Chicago President-elect ROBERT J. SHILLER, Yale University Vice Presidents BEN S. BERNANKE, Brookings Institution CECILIA E. ROUSE, Princeton University Members AMY N. FINKELSTEIN, Massachusetts Institute of Technology JONATHAN LEVIN, Stanford University DORA L. COSTA, University of California at Los Angeles GUIDO W. IMBENS, Stanford University DAVID H. AUTOR, Massachusetts Institute of Technology RACHEL E. KRANTON, Duke University Ex Officio Members WILLIAM D. NORDHAUS, Yale University CLAUDIA GOLDIN, Harvard University Appointed Members Editor, The American Economic Review PINELOPI KOUJIANOU GOLDBERG, Yale University Editor, The Journal of Economic Literature STEVEN N. DURLAUF, University of Wisconsin Editor, The Journal of ENRICO MORETTI, University of California at Berkeley Editor, American Economic Journal: Applied Economics ESTHER DUFLO, Massachusetts Institute of Technology Editor, American Economic Journal: Economic Policy MATTHEW D. SHAPIRO, University of Michigan Editor, American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics RICHARD ROGERSON, Princeton University Editor, American Economic Journal: Microeconomics ANDREW POSTLEWAITE, University of Pennsylvania Secretary-Treasurer PETER L. ROUSSEAU, Vanderbilt University OTHER OFFICERS Editor, Resources for Economists WILLLIAM GOFFE, Pennsylvania State University Director of AEA Publication Services JANE EMILY VOROS, Pittsburgh Managing Director of EconLit Product Design and Content STEVEN L. HUSTED, University of Pittsburgh Counsel TERRY CALVANI, Freshfields Bruckhaus Deringer LLP Washington, DC ADMINISTRATORS Administrative Director REGINA H. MONTGOMERY Convention Manager MARLENE HIGHT

6 Summer 2015, Volume 29, Number 3 Symposia Automation and Labor Markets David H. Autor, Why Are There Still So Many Jobs? The History and Future of Workplace Automation Joel Mokyr, Chris Vickers, and Nicolas L. Ziebarth, The History of Technological Anxiety and the Future of Economic Growth: Is This Time Different? Gill A. Pratt, Is a Cambrian Explosion Coming for Robotics? Pre-Analysis Plans Benjamin A. Olken, Promises and Perils of Pre-Analysis Plans Lucas C. Coffman and Muriel Niederle, Pre-Analysis Plans Have Limited Upside, Especially Where Replications Are Feasible Doing Business Timothy Besley, Law, Regulation, and the Business Climate: The Nature and Influence of the World Bank Doing Business Project Mary Hallward-Driemeier and Lant Pritchett, How Business is Done in the Developing World: Deals versus Rules Articles Christian Thimann, The Microeconomic Dimensions of the Eurozone Crisis and Why European Politics Cannot Solve Them Richard J. Gilbert, E-books: A Tale of Digital Disruption Randall K. Q. Akee, Katherine A. Spilde, and Jonathan B. Taylor, The Indian Gaming Regulatory Act and Its Effects on American Indian Economic Development Recommendations for Further Reading Editorial Note

Economic Perspectives

The Journal of Economic Perspectives A journal of the American Economic Association Editor David H. Autor, Massachusetts Institute of Technology Co-editors Chang-Tai Hsieh, University of Chicago Ulrike