Reaching Zeitgeist: On Complexity, Decision Making and Participatory Foresight

Transcription

1 Reaching Zeitgeist: On Complexity, Decision Making and Participatory Foresight Enric Bas + Michal Pazour (University of Alicante_Spain) (Czech Academy of Sciences) FFRC_Futures of a Complex World Conference Turku (Finland), June-12th _2017 WHO Enric BAS Michal PAZOUR Professor of Social Change. Director of FUTURLAB_UA University of Alicante. Spain The Methodologist Head of Department of Strategic Studies at Technology Centre of the Czech Academy of Sciences The Practitioner 1

2 Foresight Networking. Main initiatives in the EA(2000-now) EC-MAIN EFP-Enlargement Futures Project (JRC/IPTS 2001) ESTO Network (JRC/IPTS, 2002) EFMN-European Foresight Monitoring Network (FP6, ) FOR-LEARN (FP6, ) EFP-European Foresight Platform (FP7, ) ERAWATCH (JRC/IPTS, 2010-today) RIM Plus (2010-today) EC-OTHERS SELFRULE-Strategic European and Latin American Foresight for Research and University Learning Exchange (ALFA Programme, ) IFA-International Foresight Academy (Marie Curie FP7, ) NON-EC European Futurists Conference Lucerne ( ) Foresight Europe Network (FEN) European Regional Foresight College (ERFC) 2

3 WHY a new network: from Technocracy to Empathy 1. the mandate is developing an outline for a new effective foresight network 2. being effective means helping to provide both the right questions and answers 3. this implies moving to a more emphatic system to fix the existing gap 4. even private companies seem to be more human-centric than public institutions 5. this lack of empathy is seriously affecting EU inner stability and global influence 6. so the network should integrate new procedures to generate b/u knowledge 7. this is why integrating a significative critical mass (P) is essential to make the right questions 8. and also delivering the right answers when requested (TT) 9. but foresight experts (CG) are needed to articulate the whole process 10. in order to provide knowledge transfer useful for strategic d-m and innovation WHY an integrative Analytical Framework for Participatory Foresight? Growing complexity = challenge for policy-making In order to deal effectively with growing complexity policy makers need to: better understand complex systems, their features and behaviour respond rapidly, flexibly and in a systemic way consider different partners, their views and needs in policy design strengthen collective intelligence through collaboration, partnership and networks 3

4 Does existing concept of foresight really effectively support the decision-making process? EMPATHY > PARTICIPATORY FORESIGHT > SENSE/PURPOSE-MAKING Policy options Decisionmaking Sense making (insight, collective intelligence and visions) Policy implementation Strategic intelligence (analyses, evaluations, projections) EMPATHY? Effectiveness Human-centric approach UX satisfaction /Design Thinking Creative + Participatory Futures Bottom-Up dynamics 4

5 5

6 6

7 democrazy? (the collapse of the institutional framework) UK_BREXIT Colombia_PEACE AGREEMENT Hungary_PLEBISCITE REFUGEES +remember 2005 referendum EU constitution +populist cities (Rome, BCN, Mad, Cadiz ) +the collapse of PSF (etcétera)/socialdemocrats 7

8 In Brazil we must show that we can reinvent the meaning and direction of our policy; if not, discontent again take the people to the streets to protest against who knows what and for what. The challenge we face is to close the gap between the demos and the res publica, between people and the general interest, re-weave the threads that can unite the political system to the demands of society Fernando Henrique Cardoso Ex-President of Brazil Member of the Council of the XXI Century Berggruen Institut Participatory Foresight 8

9 OUTPUT a joint initiative by FLUX-3D. A tool for CAPTURING THE ZEITGEIST elitist INPUT democratic closed FOCUS GROUP SURVEYS open DELPHI 9

10 The achylles heel of PF Googleization- The narrow culture / Lack of DEEP KNOWLEDGE Politics as App- The like/dislike culture / Lack of COMPLEX THINKING Immediacy- The culture of now / Lack of long term VISION Ethics of moral convictions vs Ethics of responsability The right brain culture / Lack of PRAGMATIC REASONING 10

11 To act according with our own moral convictions without worrying about the consequences of our actions is a religious logic, not political. The main effect is the inihibition of the actors: they exonerate themselves, becoming irresponsible Jose Ignacio Torreblanca (Head of Opinion_El Pais. Spain) (W.I.P.) The four walls of a room: an integrative Analytical Framework for Participatory Foresight in Liquid Times. 11

12 SYSTEMS THEORY FRACTALS THEORY CHAOS THEORY FUZZY LOGIC Systems are found both in nature (body, ecosystems,..) and social life (organizations, society, ). A system is a self-regulated whole/stucture composed with interconnected functional parts So, it s about HOLISM in analysis. 12

13 Social reality is a multidimensional system ECONOMY CULTURE TECNOLOGY COMMUNICATION ECOSYSTEM SECURITY POLITICS 13

14 SYSTEMS THEORY FRACTALS THEORY CHAOS THEORY FUZZY LOGIC Every functional part of a system is a system in itself, ad infinitum. This means structures repeating in different interconnected levels. So it s about MULTILEVEL perspective. 14

15 15

16 SYSTEMS THEORY FRACTALS THEORY CHAOS THEORY FUZZY LOGIC Indeterminism as an expression of non-linear, extremely sensitive, non-proportional cause/effect This means assuming uncertainty in prediction and extreme complexity due to interconnectivity (the butterfly effect). So it s about RANDOMNESS as a pattern/ order. The butterfly effect (Edward Lorenz, MIT, 1972) 16

17 SYSTEMS THEORY FRACTALS THEORY CHAOS THEORY FUZZY LOGIC In every functional part of a system (or system), dichotomybased approach may be unefficient. This means considering the relative context while analyzing how a system works in order to rethink it. So, it s about to go beyond DICHOTOMYc thinking 17

18 Kiitos!!! 18