The world in foresight and insights

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1 Welcome to WIFI Vienna The world in foresight and insights 17. Mai 2013 Unternehmensberatung WIFI Wien

2

3 Context As change accelerates in an increasingly connected world, more companies are looking further ahead to better understand emerging opportunities and challenges

4 Foresight Organisations increasingly want to identify and understand both the anticipated and unexpected changes so that they can be better prepared for the future

5 Future Agenda The Future Agenda is the world s largest open foresight programme that has engaged expert input from over 1500 organisations to gain a unique global view of the World in 2020

6 Future Agenda Insights From the Future Agenda programme, we highlighted 52 insights which many organisations are now using to stimulate innovation thinking and challenge their future perspectives

7 Imbalanced Population Growth Certainties By 2020 we will add another 750m people to the planet, most in places least able to accommodate them

8 Key Resource Constraints Certainties We will see economic, physical and political shortages of key materials that will result in major changes in our perspectives

9 Asian Wealth Shift Certainties The centre of gravity of global wealth shifts East with decreased influence for the US and Europe

10 Ubiquitous Data Access Certainties We will be connected everywhere - everything that can benefit from a network connection will have one

11 Health

12 Automated People Care Health Robotic assisted care and remote monitoring provide economically viable support for the sick and elderly so that people can stay home for longer

13 Diabesity Health With diabetes consuming 5% of GDP a combination of fat taxation, patient data mining and personal budgets will play a role in stabilising the obesity epidemic

14 Global Pandemics Health We are likely to see 2 to 3 major pandemics start in regions with limited public healthcare and rapidly spread globally and so demand fast response

15 Halting Alzheimer's Health Stopping mental degradation from Alzheimer s makes quality ageing more possible by improving cognition and slowing the rate of decline

16 Mass Medical Tourism Health Medical tourism goes main-stream as low-cost cardiac surgery and broader healthcare provision join dentistry and cosmetic surgery to have global impact

17 Pharma Foods Health More customised foods, blur the line between pharmaceuticals and food as neutragenomics allow individualised diets to fit genetic profiles

18 Systemic Euthanasia Health The escalating economic and social cost of supporting the aged beyond natural lifecycles leads to wider acceptance of assisted suicide

19 Wealth

20 Differentiated Knowledge Wealth As information is shared globally and insight is commoditized, the best returns go to those who can produce non-standard, differentiated knowledge

21 Dynamic Pricing Wealth Pervasive smart meters and ubiquitous tracking services create platforms for the dynamic pricing of resources, access and travel to manage demand

22 Lease Everything Wealth Rising sustainability imperatives and increasing cost of ownership shift the balance from ownership to access and we prefer to rent than buy

23 Local Currency Wealth The revitalisation of bartering, decreased trust in banks and increasing tax avoidance broadens the adoption of alternative stores of value for trade

24 Mobile Money Wealth Proven systems built on mobile connectivity and increasingly flexible means of exchange provide a tipping point in the shift towards the cashless society

25 Richer Poorer Wealth Widening differences in wealth between and within urban and rural communities extends the gap between rich and poor - but they still need each other

26 Happiness

27 Active Elderly Happiness A wealthier, healthier older generation increasingly engage in more active lives, having extended careers and becoming more politically involved

28 Cocktail Identities Happiness The need to differentiate between real and virtual disappears - who you are ceases to use a singular identity as we manage multiple identity portfolios

29 Less Variety Happiness The future is one of reduced choice but not less interest as retailers provide an increasingly edited portfolio of products through ever more efficient channels

30 Live Experiences Happiness The role of live in an increasingly virtual, isolated world becomes more important to create moments for deeper, richer connections

31 Seamless Media Consumption Happiness Multiple media sources are instantly integrated at the point of consumption to provide us with immersive access to tailored, bite-sized content

32 Switching Off Happiness Being disconnected in an always connected world leads to virtual cocoons at home and real physical solitude becomes an option only for the rich

33 Mobility

34 Asian Aviation Mobility Led by more tourists and steady growth in cargo transportation, Asian aviation places more orders and becomes the largest air market in the world

35 Electric Mobility Mobility With France and Germany taking the initial lead roles, electric cars take off and form up to 10% of the world s vehicle fleet by 2020

36 Intelligent Highways Mobility Mesh networks and ubiquitous mobile connections deliver automated highways to improve safety, increase capacity and reduce congestion

37 People Tracking Mobility The acceptance of being tracked by your mobile is accelerated by ticket-less transport systems, increased surveillance and successful location-based services

38 Urban (Im)mobility Mobility Informed choices, growth, congestion and regulation impact the world s cities to drive a shift to more sustainable efficient transport options

39 Security

40 Bio-Surveillance Security Active gathering and interpretation of data related to threats to human and animal health delivers faster early warning and situational awareness

41 Credible Sources Security Greater information overload moves our focus from simply accessing data to include the source of the insight to distinguish what we trust

42 Corporate LEGO Security With more free agents and outsourcing, non-core functions within organisations are interchangeable and easily rebuilt around value-creating units

43 Solar Sunrise Security Increasing governmental focus on energy security and climate change drives the uptake of large-scale solar as the leading renewable supply

44 Water Management Security Advanced water purification, irrigation and desalination technologies are used to help communities to manage the rising supply / demand imbalance

45 Locality

46 Almost Zero Waste Locality Escalating waste production and new attitudes, approaches, regulation and business models lead many to aim for an almost zero waste society

47 Dense Cities Locality As urban migration increases, efficient, densely populated cities, not distributed options, are the blueprints for more sustainable places to live

48 Local Foods Locality Increased transparency on food availability and security, land use and eco-literacy accelerate mass consumption of locally grown and processed foods

49 Intelligent buildings Locality Smarter, better connected, self-monitoring homes and offices provide safer, more secure, low energy buildings able to self-manage utilities

50 Mega City States Locality Increasing competition between cities over-rides national priorities as mayors lead bold initiatives to place their cities at the forefront of the global stage

51 Migration Magnets Locality Immigration is part of economic development strategies and, especially in low fertility economies, nations position themselves to attract migrants

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