The Future of Systems Engineering

Transcription

1 The Future of Systems Engineering Mr. Paul Martin, ESEP Systems Engineer 1

2 SEs are Problem-solvers Across an organization s products or services, systems engineers also provide critical leadership for integrating the technical activities. They have skills to influence multidisciplinary teams to reach consensus on how the system solution should come together. As problemsolvers, they focus on outcome, not process. ~ John Thomas, INCOSE President Why Systems Engineers are Essential to Your Organization 2

3 How was your Morning? Look at our life as it interacts with a Man-Made World Housing Energy Systems (AC, Batteries) Water Filtering and Distribution Food Production and Delivery Market Systems Transportation Communications (Landline, Wireless) Other things? 3

4 Techno-Science...science-linked technological innovation The electric telegraph (1838) was invented and demonstrated by physicists The first "successful" undersea telegraph cable was redesigned by physicist (1865) Commercial electricity generators is based Michael Faraday s dynamo (1830) Radio technology is directly based on Maxwell s mathematical theory of the electromagnetic field (1860 s) - from Professor Steven L. Goldman s Class Great Scientific Ideas That Changed the World 4

5 Large Engineering Projects How did the Manhattan Project or Space Program, come about: 1. New Technology is used 2. Science well understood 3. Clear Requirements 4. Design from scratch to accomplish mission But lately there have been large failures of projects From Bar-Yam, Y., 2003; When Systems Engineering Fails---Toward Complex Systems Engineering 5

6 List of Large Engineering Project Failures System IRS Tax Systems Modernization projects London Ambulance Service Computer Aided Dispatch System FBI Virtual Case File DoD Expeditionary Combat Support System (ECSS) Years of Work (outcome) (scrapped) (scrapped) (scrapped) (scrapped) Approx. Cost $4B $2.5M/ 20 lives $170M $1B 6

7 Why failures happen? Because Projects have become more Complex interdependent sub-systems Law of Requisite Variety -- The larger the variety of actions available to a control system, the larger the variety of perturbations it is able to compensate. -- impossible to completely test all functions of a complex system unanticipated emergent effects 7

8 Emergence The way complex systems and patterns arise out of a multiplicity of relatively simple interactions Unintended Consequences = unpredicted emergence The opposite of the Reductionist approach of Scientist and Systems Engineers. Where is the science of Systems Engineering?? Has Systems Science lead to any new approaches of Systems Engineering? 8

9 No clear definition Complexity To some, complexity is different in different branches of sciences Others argue that there is a single natural phenomenon called complexity which is the subject of a single scientific theory or approach - no matter the type of system Albert Einstein: Make everything as simple as possible, but not simpler. Professor Brian Collins: Make everything as complex as possible, but not more complex than it needs to be. From Professor Brian Collins talk on Systems Engineering from 2013 INCOSE International Symposium in Philadelphia PA. 9

10 How to deal with complexity Simplify objectives, if possible Eliminate the complexity Or evolve complex systems with Evolutionary Incremental Developmental Process Is a new approach to Systems Engineering needed? 10

11 INCOSE Systems Engineering Vision 2020 INCOSE-TP September, 2007 "Complexity can be considered as a measure of how well knowledge of a system s component parts explains the system s behavior and also by the number of mutually interacting and interwoven parts, entities or agents." 11

12 Outline Systems and their Nature Global Systems Engineering Environment Systems Engineering Processes Models and Model-based Systems Engineering 12

13 Systems and their Nature Current State and Trends 1. Purpose, Scope & Capability autonomy 2. Complexity including components & interfaces 3. Systems of Systems 4. Technology used in the system itself 5. Embedded Software and information processing 6. Role of Humans as part of the system 7. Legacy System Composition 13

14 Systems and their Nature 1. Purpose, Scope & Capability autonomy Most engineered legacy systems were developed to meet a single, defined purpose. Tends: o o ambitious systems across greater geography, and with increasing capability. increasingly smaller systems, even micro-systems, based on continually evolving technologies 2. Complexity including components & interfaces creating solutions for increasingly complex problems o motivated by an overall increase in societal need for systems of evergreater variety (scope, miniaturization, accuracy, acuity and autonomy), effectiveness, and economy. significant project failures growing recognition of the important role played by the system s architect 14

15 Systems and their Nature 3. Systems of Systems "aggregating otherwise independent systems to achieve an emergent behavior that is not evident in the individual systems" Highly networked, or net centric. System components to be o adaptive, o able to self-discover, and o utilize other components and component interfaces Greatly increased number of stakeholders across the enterprise, Complexity of the interfaces to be designed and managed. Requires a coordinating body to evolve the system architecture 4. Technology used in the system itself Advances in technology enable systems with new capabilities previously unattainable purposes but may also enable systems engineers to develop systems that accomplish previously attainable purposes in new, more efficient ways. 15

16 Systems and their Nature 4. Technology used in the system itself Increasing computation power and information storage Increased miniaturization, including nanotechnologies Increased use of biotechnology Increased connectivity and interoperability Integrated process technology within the system 5. Embedded Software and information processing Control systems: now more digital software-controlled Information technology systems o components that are increasingly decentralized and o viewed as services provided to a larger system or systems. Relative proportion of software to hardware is increasing exponentially Adopting open source software 16

17 Systems and their Nature 6. Role of Humans as part of the system systems will exhibit greater autonomy, requiring less direct human direction or intervention as the purpose, scope, and complexity of systems increase, human decision making capabilities will remain within the scope of the overall system 7. Legacy System Composition replacement costs are forcing systems to be modified and updated beyond their expected life expectancy 17

18 Systems and their Nature Vision 2020 Systems will exhibit extensive interconnectedness. Local systems are giving way to regional systems. Challenged by the ability of new and legacy systems to join the encompassing system of systems. Designed for continuous adaptation, which will stimulate greater use of off-the-shelf components Systems of the future will continue to exhibit the characteristics from present trends 18

19 Systems and their Nature Vision 2020 System architecture will be more than the technical architecture of the system. Will include: markets, customers, technology insertion, product development and deployment, and the needs of the enterprise into an integrated framework. Architectural design, will include greater clarity of architectural approaches, potentially based on a set of emerging systems engineering pattern languages and pattern structures. automation of these approaches via development, maturing, and continual evolution of languages (such as SysML ), tools and methods 19

20 Systems and their Nature Vision 2020 Technology Virtual devices with multiple sensory inputs. Human/system interfaces to become highly sophisticated and complex. integration of genetic engineering, micro- /nanotechnologies, biotechnology, and neurotechnologies Dramatic new capabilities, resulting in a broad range of new products. Automation of complex products and processes via artificial intelligence, virtual reality, adaptive systems, sensors for condition monitoring, robotics, and other technologies Embedded intelligence: Challenge: Allowing humans to complement system intelligence with human intelligence, 20

21 Global Systems Engineering Environment Current State and Trends: The present-day solution-building environment integrated product and process development where developers consider all life-cycle elements at the earliest stages major commercial and government organizations have recognized the importance and value of systems engineering. International collaboration is visible in the areas of standards and identifying and measuring the maturity of systems engineering processes Geographically distributed, multi-disciplinary teams working in collaborative environments are becoming the norm. 21

22 Global Systems Engineering Negative trends Environment No agreed set of unified principles and models to support systems engineering use over a wide range of domains No set of consistent terminology and definitions Lack of consistency in the education of systems engineers Do not consistently address and integrate factors other than hardware and software in a balanced fashion. fail to recognize the roles of people in systems fail to recognize facilities, procedures, processes and even naturally occurring entities may be significant parts of systems Core challenge: identify and deliver value to every stakeholder. 22

23 Global Systems Engineering Environment Vision 2020: The solution-building environment of the future Interoperability among systems engineering practices. Collaborative tools and virtual collaborative environments that feature sophisticated capabilities combined with simplicity in the user interface. Tools will span a broader range of applications and support people-centric interfaces that provide an environment that addresses structural, social, technical, and cultural differences in order to compress or bridge collaboration distance between all involved stakeholders. 23

24 Global Systems Engineering Vision 2020: Environment Systems Engineering capabilities will be created to support the adaptation of system engineering methodology to the agile and robust operations of extended enterprises and businesses of all sizes. Advanced systems theory application Increased use of analytical methods and tools Advances in engineering education with an emphasis on interdisciplinary integration Improved use/integration of engineering specialties Improved understanding of psychology, languages and culture Improved shared understanding of systems engineering concepts among all stakeholders Improved usability of standards with increased harmonization of engineering, project management and business processes. 24

25 Systems Engineering Processes Current State: Maturity and formalism of systems engineering processes The Good Process descriptions - evolving Standards - created Best practice and maturity codified and modeled The Bad Perception of burdensome, heavyweight efforts, leading to unjustified cost and time overheads. Application of systems engineering in small and medium-scale enterprises, where the majority of engineering is conducted, remains weak. Adoption is further impeded by a lack of lean/agile process sets and life cycle concepts. The Ugly Major need for a coherent systems engineering processes that can be applied across multi-party teams The lack of a set of lean/agile principles that could remove tasks that do not provide added-value and provide adaptability across a diversity of organizational structures. Difficult to engineer systems using sequential, requirementspredicated models of practice. 25

26 Systems Engineering Processes Core challenge: learning to deal with accelerating changes in both user needs and external environments. Vision 2020: Fully support concurrently engineered systems Allow continuous technology insertion in order to accommodate the rapid acceleration of technological change. Enable future systems to take advantage of emerging technologies by effectively integrating these technologies with legacy systems and with complementary technological advances. Success criteria will likely include the Ability of a system to interoperate with other evolving systems, or Its resilience in accommodating new technology or interfaces 26

27 Systems Engineering Processes Vision 2020: Focus on processes that produce value Intelligent engineering environments will facilitate agile and adaptable processes. Better planning and control activities via widespread workflow management tools. Improved decision-making support effective and efficient "logistics and maintenance support infrastructure. 27

28 Systems Engineering Processes Vision 2020: The state of the best practice in systems will be characterized in the following manner: Continuous process improvement will be a widespread practice. Increased coordination and harmonization of process standards, including other disciplines and business processes. Alignment with stakeholder values reduction of risk via process simulation and sensitivity analysis robust strategy for integrating cognitive-human-sociotechnical concepts 28

29 Models and Model-based Systems Current State: Engineering MBSE process and methods are generally practiced in an ad hoc manner and not integrated into the overall systems engineering processes, However, MBSE is expected to replace the document-centric approach that has been practiced by systems engineers in the past and to influence the future practice of systems engineering by being fully integrated into the definition of systems engineering processes Systems modeling standards are beginning to emerge that should have a significant impact on the application and use of MBSE 29

30 Models and Model-based Systems Vision 2020: Engineering The key characteristics of MBSE in the future will include: Domain-specific modeling languages and visualization that enable the systems engineer to focus on modeling of the user domain Modeling standards based on a firm mathematical foundation that support high fidelity simulation and real-world representations Extensive reuse of model libraries, taxonomies and design patterns virtual development environments, greatly reducing the need for physical prototypes. Standards that support integration and management across a distributed model repository Highly reliable and secure data exchange via published interfaces. 30

31 Future Considerations Heavy reliance on IT as a Service (Cloud Infrastructure) Model libraries, taxonomies and design patterns will be only on existing solution space -- how do you approach problems with no existing solutions? What about the effect of inexpensive 3-D printing on physical prototypes? 31

32 Future Innovations Anything new that will be created, needs to work within this vast interconnected man-made environment. As Niels Bohr once said: Prediction is very difficult, especially if it s about the future. Really we need a problem to arise before you can solve it. 32

33 How to Look to the Future STEP 1: Look at existing trends. STEP 2: Seek out "weak signals," or trends-to-be, STEP 3: Extrapolate them into a vision of the future. STEP 4: Assemble a scenario, STEP 5: Then "backcast" to see what has to happen for us to get there. - "Industrial Research Looks Into The Future, And You Can Too!" from the November 2013 issue of Fast Company magazine. 33

34 Future Systems Engineering Move out of the Management Realm into a Holistic Solutions Realm Taking on Large-Scale Global Problems Integrate Design Thinking 1 with Systems Thinking 1. Define the Problem 2. Create and Consider Many Options 3. Refine Selected Directions 3.5 Repeat (Optional) 4. Pick the Winner, Execute Solve the emergence problem with better Modeling 1 Fast Company - March Design Thinking... What Is That? 34

35 Mr. Paul Martin, ESEP Senior Systems Engineer SE Overview 35

36 References INCOSE Systems Engineering Vision 2020 (INCOSE-TP ) September, 2007 Why Systems Engineers are Essential to Your Organization by John Thomas, INCOSE President Professor Steven L. Goldman s course Great Scientific Ideas That Changed the World Bar-Yam, Y., 2003; When Systems Engineering Fails---Toward Complex Systems Engineering Professor Brian Collins talk on Systems Engineering from 2013 INCOSE International Symposium in Philadelphia PA. Fast Company - March Design Thinking... What Is That? 36