Foresight in Europe and other Regions of the World

Transcription

1 Foresight in Europe and other Regions of the World The EFMN Annual Report Date: February 16, 2007 Authors: Maurits Butter (TNO) Michael Keenan (PREST) Anette Braun (VDI) Sylvie Rijkers-Defrasne (VDI) Matthias Weber (ARC-sys) Susanne Giesecke (ARC-sys) Patrick Crehan (CKA)

2 TABLE OF CONTENTS THE EUROPEAN FORESIGHT MONITORING NETWORK...3 INTRODUCTION TO THE SECOND YEAR OF THE EFMN...3 WHAT IS THE EUROPEAN FORESIGHT MONITORING NETWORK?...3 WHAT ARE WE AIMING AT?...3 THE EFMN APPROACH...3 HOW DOES IT OPERATE?...4 WE NEED YOUR HELP!...4 MONITORING AND MAPPING FORESIGHT INITIATIVES...5 ALREADY OVER 1400 CASES IDENTIFIED!...5 HIGHLIGHTS OF THE SECOND MAPPING EXERCISE...5 IDENTIFICATION OF EMERGING ISSUES...7 WHAT IS THIS ABOUT?...7 FIRST STEP: SELECTING A FOCAL ISSUE...7 FOCAL ISSUE FOR HEALTHY AGING: CHALLENGES AND OPTIONS FOR RESEARCH...8 ISSUE ANALYSIS WORKSHOP ON HEALTHY AGEING...8 FORESIGHT BRIEFS AS DIGESTS OF RECENT FORESIGHT EXERCISES...9 THE PURPOSE OF THE FORESIGHT BRIEFS...9 THE CONTENT OF THE FORESIGHT BRIEFS...10 THE PRODUCTION OF BRIEFS...10 STATUS ON BRIEFS PRODUCTION...11 INFORMATION EXCHANGE...11 THE EFMN PORTAL INTERACTIVE SEARCHES AND THE VISUALIZATION OF MAPPING DATA...11 THE EFMN MAILING LISTS...12 THE DYNAMO EXPERT SYSTEM...12 THE WORK THAT LIES AHEAD...13 HOW TO BECOME A CORRESPONDENT , EC page 2 of 16

3 The European Foresight Monitoring Network Introduction to the Second Year of the EFMN This is the second Annual Report of the European Foresight Monitoring Network. We started in 2004 and after the first year starting up the Network, we now feel that we are fully operational. This report shows our progress over the last two years. The communication to the foresight community is enhanced, as well as interaction. This resulted in the participation of almost 200 experts, all over the world. They helped us to identify over 1400 future initiatives, of which over 800 are now mapped in detail. This proves to present some interesting information on the developments in future initiatives. Next to this, also the second annual EFMN issue analysis has been organized on Healthy aging. Interesting subjects were discussed, providing an interesting view on our future. In the second year many briefs on future initiatives were produced, of which now over 80 are available. Feedback from users provide confirmation of the value of short summaries of new activities. New functionalities of the EFMN portal present new ways of accessing the information we collected and provide a platform for future initiatives. We hope this Annual report will inspire you to become active in the EFMN. If so, please do not hesitate to contact us if you are interested in participation. Perhaps we can be of help to each other. This report is the second in a series of publications of the EFMN to report on foresight activities in Europe and other regions of the world. It shows the work of the project and aims at inspiring the reader to join the network. What is the European Foresight Monitoring Network? The EUROPEAN FORESIGHT MONITORING NETWORK (EFMN) is a project, financed by the European Commission, to promote the use of foresight and future oriented activities in the European Union. It monitors ongoing and emerging foresight activities. It disseminates information on these activities to a network of policy professionals and policy researchers as well as foresight practitioners and stakeholders. It supports the work of policy related professionals at regional as well as the national level. The EUROPEAN FORESIGHT MONITORING NETWORK is part of the FORESIGHT KNOWLEDGE SHARING PLATFORM. This platform constitutes a coordinated series of European Commission initiatives to support the professional development of foresight practitioners in Europe. It forms an important part of a strategy to develop the European Research Area and contains three main lines of action: Monitor and disseminate information about foresight knowledge in Europe and the rest of the world, Promote mutual learning among professionals interested in foresight related issues, Conduct studies on key issues for EU research and innovation policy that provide input to RTD and Innovation related foresight activities in Europe. What are we Aiming at? There is much discussion on the definition of foresight. Some link it to traditional forecasting exercises that were common in the seventies and others use highly bounded definitions based on participation. The EFMN uses the following definition: FORESIGHT is a participative approach to creating shared long-term visions that inform short-term decision making processes. It is used by policy professionals who work at the level of the nation, the region or municipality, at the level of the research system, the industry sector, cluster or stronghold and at the level of the supply chain or production system. FORESIGHT mobilizes actors and creates broadly based support for policies that are developed in this way. The EFMN does not limit itself to future oriented activities based on this definition. Although the main focus of its work is on foresight related activities, information on other forward looking policy related activities also will be monitored and mapped by the EFMN. The EFMN Approach The EFMN approach is based on a continuous process for monitoring and collecting data on foresight initiatives conducted not only in Europe, but in other regions of the world as well. This information is collected with the collaboration of experts active in the international foresight community. The information gathered provides the raw material for the following tasks: PRODUCTION of BRIEFS: These are short 4-page descriptions of interesting, recent, or ongoing foresight exercises. We produce 40 briefs per year. MAPPING: In addition to simply monitoring on-going activities, we compile detailed data on these activities and publish an annual report that analyzes trends and developments in Europe and other regions of the world. ISSUES ANALYSIS: This analysis allows us to identify emerging issues that may be of importance to the research community in Europe. The intention is to highlight emerging issues rather than established and easily recognizable trends. A focal issue is selected and further analyzed. All of this is summarized in an annual report. TRANSFER OF INFORMATION: The EFMN portal and its mailing lists located at provides the main means of dissemination. It is updated continuously as briefs are produced and as new initiatives are identified. It provides links to the main European Commission foresight related initiatives. It provides a calendar and a distribution list that already has about 2,000 members. page 3 of 16

4 1: An international NETWORK of policy professionals, foresight experts & practitioners Elements of the EFMN initiative The EFMN organizes an annual expert workshop on emerging issues that are of importance for the future of Europe and worthy of amplification on the basis of a dedicated workshop. Experts in the field, together with policymakers from national or regional agencies and authorities as well as experts from the European Commission are invited to discuss the possible impact of these emerging issues on Europe as well as possible actions needed for the future. The results of this workshop are feed into the annual report on emerging issues. How Does it Operate? 2: CORRESPONDENTS working with CONSORTIUM members 5: A WEBSITE for information transfer 4: An annual ISSUE ANALYSIS WORKSHOP 3: Periodic provision of CONTENT Although the EFMN team comprises 11 leading organizations in the field of foresight, input from other organizations and experts is crucial to reach the EFMN objectives. Information on past and recent foresight exercises are gathered from a network of expert correspondents across the European Union, its neighbors and the world. The EFMN relies on a high level of participation of foresight experts from Europe and the rest of the world. Although the EFMN team provides a critical mass to ensure continuity and momentum, it is important that other foresight experts and policymakers are involved in the collection of data. Therefore a three layer organization structure has been set up. activities and play a role in the overall development of structure and content of the work. The second layer consists of the other consortium partners - Dialogik, Louis Lengrand & Associates, Fraunhofer-ISI, TCP - Technology Centre AS, ATLANTIS Consulting S.A, and the Malta Council for Science & Technology. The responsibility of these EFMN partners is to provide information and attract new correspondents. They are involved in the gathering and mapping of foresight exercises, issue analysis and the production of briefs. The third layer is made up of the correspondents. These are external foresight experts, policymakers and other individuals who can contribute to the identification of foresight exercises, the mapping and the production of briefs. Correspondents are invited to get involved in the Network. Anyone interested in and capable of making a contribution, can become a correpondent. If YOU are interested please get in contact with any one of the partners and join us. The monitoring and mapping of Foresight initiatives is central to the success of the EFMN and it critically relies on the efforts of correspondents. Already an international network of about 170 correspondents based all across Europe and in other regions of the world around the world is actively involved. The EFMN was set up as a service for the European foresight community and other relevant individuals and organizations that can benefit from foresight. If you are involved in foresight, in developing strategies for research and innovation, or in the use of foresight in another way, the EFMN can provide you with useful information or help you link up with experts in areas relevant to your work. To join the network it is sufficient to register at the EFMN portal We Need Your HELP! This document is intended to show some of the results obtained by the EFMN in terms of network development as well as progress in the Production of Briefs, Mapping and Issue analysis. briefs: ARC-SR transfer: CKA management: TNO mapping: Prest issue analysis: VDI Correspondents Partners Core Corepartners However, we hope to show you with this report that participation in the network is beneficial for you and for your peers. The EFMN enables you to show results of your activities within the field of foresight that others can benefit from. We hope this will stimulate greater interaction between foresight experts in Europe, with policymakers and with business in order to make better use of the capacities on foresight available to improve research, innovation, the economy and society. The inner circle, or CORE team of the EFMN is formed by TNO (Overall project coordination), PREST (Mapping), VDI (Issue analysis), ARC systems research (Briefs) and CKA (Information transfer). These organizations coordinate specific But we can not do this alone. We rely on the active participation of correspondents. Join the network by providing information on foresight activities. All contributions help, from providing information on foresight events, mailing us new foresight exercises to writing briefs to inform others about foresight activities in detail. It will help us to improve to see what trends and developments there are in foresight, as well as identify new important emerging issues to help create an page 4 of 16

5 innovative European economy. Go to join the network and get involved by helping in the monitoring, mapping and editing of briefs on Foresight related activities in Europe and other regions of the world! Monitoring and Mapping Foresight Initiatives Already Over 1400 Cases Identified! Although we got off to a slow start in 2004, the project partners have been busy collecting data. Data collected in the course of other related projects has also been transferred to the EFMN-database. Data is being collected in a systematic way and entered into a knowledge management system called Dynamo. The data can then be searched and analyzed via the EFMN portal. Compared to the 600 initiatives in 2005, the present collection has more than doubled to over 1400 initiatives. We expect that this number will exceed 2000 over the four year lifetime of the exercise. Of the 1400 initiatives, some 800 have been mapped according to a range of characteristics such as methods used, audience or type of sponsor. By 2005 only 150 initiatives had been mapped in this way. The diagram below gives an indication of the geographic distribution of all cases mapped by September In terms of country coverage the Netherlands has the highest number of exercises mapped into the Dynamo database. This is followed by the UK, USA, Finland, France, Germany, Denmark, Belgium and Austria. After two years of mapping, the collection is still incomplete. This makes interpretation based on frequency counts sometimes unreliable. It is clear that there still exsits a geographical bias in the data collected. Not all countries are covered to a level of detail that permits detailed analysis. Our estimation is that about 5000 initiatives all over the world would give a clear overview of thinking about what will happen in the future. Nevertheless this data provides participants of the EFMN with access to one of the biggest collections of data on future initiatives in the world. It is important to note that in the case of more than 80% of these initiatives, their reports have been uploaded to the Dynamo system and and can be accessed like an e-library. Though this data provides us with a first comprehensive glimpse of the foresight landscape in Europe, as more data is collected by the foresight community, an increasingly rich picture of that landscape will emerge. This should prove invaluable to both policy makers and foresight practitioners alike. An in dept analysis of the data collected is presented in the Annual Mapping report (downloadable at This provides answers to questions like: What sponsors use what methods? Is there a shift towards other methods? What is the focus of world regions? Africa Asia China India Japan South Korea Australia New Zealand Europe EU-25 EU-15 Austria Belgium Denmark Finland France Germany Greece Ireland Italy Luxembourg Netherlands Portugal Spain Sweden United Kingdom EU New member states Cyprus Czech Republic Estonia Hungary Latvia Malta Poland Slovakia EU candidates Bulgaria Romania Turkey Norway Slovenia Switzerland Ukraine Israel Moldova, Republic of Armenia America United States Canada South America Colombia Peru Brazil Venezuela Saudi Arabia International Other countries Highlights of the Second Mapping Exercise Compared to the results of the first year, the situation has markedly improved. We now can analyze: Geographical differences Content changes Methodological developments. page 5 of 16

6 In discussion with the European Commission, eight different world regions are distinguished in the mapping exercise: EU15+ 1 (495 initiatives) Europe Other 2 (38 initiatives) Trans Europe 3 (45 initiatives) Africa (14 initiatives) Asia (16 initiatives) Australia (23 initiatives) Latin America (24 initiatives) North America (112 initiatives) 600,0 500,0 400,0 300,0 200,0 100,0 0,0 Africa Asia Australia Figure 1: World regions versus methods used EU-15+ Europe other Trans Europe Latin America Northern America Expert Panels Questionnaire / Survey Literature Review Interviews Brainstorming Trend Extrapolation SWOT Analysis Modelling & simulation Megatrend Analysis Scenarios Key Technologies Futures Workshops Essays Delphi For the time being country coverage is not yet well balanced. Some countries have been mapped in detail but others need further attention. Although more data is required for an indepth analysis some interesting observations are suggested by the data: Government is the main sponsor of foresight in all world regions. The intended audience for foresight initiatives varies little in different world regions, although Africa seems to have a greater participation of NGOs. The average number of participants in initiatives differs significantly from one region to the next. Significant differences are noticeable in the methods used across the world. For example TRM is widely applied in North America whereas Delphi is very important in Asia. The combinations of methods used differs significantly across the world. Significant differences can also be observed in the nature of foresight outputs across the world. Most foresight initiatives are national in scope. Other scopes are addressed with roughly equal frequency. Some dimensions, like audience, sponsorship and outputs, differ as a fcuntion of territorial scope, but these differences are limited. An important characteristic of future initiatives is the actual content addressed. Over the years many subjects have been 1 Includes the pre-2004 EU states, plus Norway, Switzerland, and Iceland 2 Includes European states that fall outside of the category above 3 Includes exercises involving more than one European country TRM covered, although often from a more general perspective. Naturally, these subjects tend to reflect the concerns of sponsors, intended audiences and their communities. An analysis of what areas are covered by foresight exercises, whether there has been a discernible shift in areas covered, and whether there is any relation between the area covered and the process followed and/or outputs generated is of significant interest. The content characteristics of the mapped exercises are indicated using the so called NACE code, the Frascati taxonomy and the Consumer Prize Index. The NACE code is a general taxonomy used by the EC to characterize industrial economic activities within the European Communities. The Frascati Research taxonomy has been developed by the OECD to characterize research activities 4. The Consumer Prize Index is used in many countries to measure the average change in consumer prices over time in a fixed market basket of goods and services. The basic taxonomy used is therefore a good structure to characterize markets to which a foresight initiative might apply. With hundreds of classes across these three taxonomies analysis is difficult. For example it may be of interest to explore to what extent given industrial economic activities are related to Frascati areas in foresight exercises?. Therefore, to keep things simple, and in discussion with the EC, seven content areas were identified, which are considered the main subjects within policy arenas: The area of Social Sciences and Humanities was added after the data was analyzed. These areas will be used for further analysis of Foresight initiatve data in the EFMN database. Looking at the frequencies of these areas, we can see that Area Initiatives AgroFood 195 Energy 158 EnvTech 164 Health 151 Inf & Com 165 SocScieHum 307 Transport 85 Manufacuring 137 Social Science and Humanities is by far the most popular subject area covered by initiatives mapped so far by EFMN. Around 25% of exercises also cover at least one of the areas of Energy, Environmental Technologies, and Transport. Less popular but still significant are Agriculture and Food, Information and Communications Technologies and Health. About 85% of all initiatives are covered by these areas. Although data can always be improved, there is already more than enough from which to draw provisional conclusions: The main areas of future studies are: AgroFood, Environment, Energy, Health, Information & Communication Technologies, Transport, Manufacturing as well as Social Sciences & Humanities. The last being by far the most mentioned area. Manufacturing seems to be decreasing in importance though the other areas remain more or less stable. It is possible to observe significant but limited correlations between domains addressed by iniatives, but Social 4 As the OECD uses a 1 digit structure, the Frascati code used by EFMN is the more detailed elaboration by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (Australian Standard Research Classification 1998) page 6 of 16

7 Sciences & Humanities does not follow this characteristic and seems to stand alone. Areas of interest to Sponsors varies significantly depending on the kind of sponsor. Intended Audiences for initiatives are more or less stable from one domain to the next. Social Sciences & Humanities are important for subnational initiatives. Small variations in Methods used can be observed from one area to another. The same holds true for Outputs.. Figure 2: Development of content areas in the last decade 60,0 50,0 40,0 30,0 20,0 10,0 0, AgroFood Energy EnvTech Health Inf & Com SocScieHum Transport Manuf A full analysis is provided in the Annual Mapping Report The EFMN has put a lot of effort into the analysis of the methodological side of foresight initiatives. Accordingly, it has collected data on Methods used in mapped iniatives and in the nature of foresight outputs. In the second Mapping Report we explore the methods used in the mapped initiatives with a view to understanding when different approaches are used. We also seek to provide a perspective on how outputs are related to other factors such as Sponsors or Audiences, or in which regions specific outcomes are important. Of the 1400 entries in the database, 785 are mapped on Methods and 704 on Outputs. An important aspect of methodology is the nature of the Output.. In our work seven types are distinguished: Analysis of Trends and Drivers (353 initiatives) Forecasts (101 initiatives) Lists of Key Technologies (111 initiatives) Policy Recommendations (504 initiatives) Research and Other Priorities (209 initiatives) Scenarios (256 initiatives) Technology Roadmaps (86 initiatives) We have enough data to perform a relatively robust analysis and draw some provisional conclusions: It is obvious that general approaches are the most often used methods in the mapped initiatives. Future oriented methods are also highly used. The more analytical methods are used less. The main time horizon of the initiatives collected is However, some significant changes can be seen when we cross-tabulate with Methods used. Methods used vary significantly according to the type of Sponsor. The variation of Audience by Method Used is limited. In most Methods less than 50 participants are involved. Some Methods show a different view. The combination between Methods is strong. The central place of Futures Workshops and Scenarios is striking. In most initiatives 5 methods or more are combined. In general the Outputs resulting from specific Methods are stable. Some exceptions arise such as TRM. Some Outputs are highly combined with others, and some more or less stand alone. The time horizon of Technology Roadmaps and Key Technologies are mid term, whereas Scenarios and Forecastning are more long term oriented. The nature of Outputs over the last decade is stable, except in the case of Technology Roadmaps which seem to be loosing their attractiveness. Audience and Sponsors are more or less stable in terms of associated Output. Identification of Emerging Issues What is This About? The EFMN issue analysis aims at identifying and analyzing key emerging science and technology issues that are relevant for European Union policies. Each year, a selection is made of the international foresight themes, issues and activities that offer the highest potential to support European science and technology policies. The selection and choice of the most pertinent emerging (S&T) issues is mainly oriented along their potential to: Anticipate scientific and technological needs (fundamental research and technology issues); Strengthen cooperation in research and the European scientific base; Develop scientific and technological capacities (research infrastructure issues). These criteria include their potential for new approaches to multi- or interdisciplinary co-operation, their likelihood to result in major benefits to society and their potential to raise new and important ethical considerations. First Step: Selecting a Focal Issue The identification and selection of a focal issues consisted of the following steps: Development of a short list of Foresight initiatives based on Dynamo and the EFMN portal, that are considered to be of high importance, Identification of current and emerging S&T issues, Innovation issues and Social issues thematically treated in these foresight initiatives, Selection, ranking and clustering of emerging issues, and Validation of the selection on the basis of bottom-up consultation of the EFMN network. This process resulted in a list of Emerging S&T Issues page 7 of 16

8 Frequency Issues Reduction of environmental quality Over-exploitation of natural resources The information society Socio economic sustainability Ageing population Knowledge-based economy and society Climate change The changing food economy Increasing pressure on health care Sustainable mobility Involved consumers and citizens Terrorism and pervasive insecurity Expansion of European Union Changes in governance Multi-cultural society Growing regional disparities and social marginalization Pervasive globalization Sustained economic growth Transportation Personal security and safety Citizenship: interactions between research and innovation Housing Scientific and technological excellence Sustainability Urbanisation Competitiveness European regulations International competitiveness of local industrial Sanitation Focal Issue for Healthy Aging: Challenges and Options for Research Even though, the EFMN team as well as the involved experts from EC staff had rather different judgements on which major scientific advances are likely in a given area over the next five to ten years, on their likely impact, and on the extent to which these fields are likely to be a priority for EU S&T/R&D policies, the broad topic of Ageing Population in combination with its impacts on Health and the Healthcare systems was among the most frequently voted issues. Healthy Ageing was eventually selected for a variety of reasons related to: Likely impact over the next five to ten years Capacity to generates an impact for other sectors, areas and scientific developments, Need for a multi/interdisciplinary approach Ethical dimension and potential benefit to society Need for international or global collaboration and the desirability of synergies to be achieved on the basis of a consolidated European effort, Possibility for the EU to compete on an international level, European added value, Relevance for EU policy objectives and/or European research potential. EFMN findings finally resulted in the selection of Healthy Ageing as the topic for the Issue Analysis Workshop in Issue Analysis Workshop on Healthy Ageing Every year an Issue analysis workshop is organized to bring together representatives from specific issue-related S&T domains, to help consolidate the assessment of the EFMN foresight issue for European policy and to foster cooperation between Member States that have developed relevant or related relevant foresight activities. The basis for the workshop is a consolidation paper on the state-of-the-art and future initiatives on the focal issue throughout the world and in particular within the European Union. In the workshop, global and EU perspectives on the focal issue are brought together and presented with an overview of the national foresight exercises identified by the EFMN in these fields. The workshop gives the participants an opportunity to discuss the options for strategic policy support. The immediate concern is to discuss how to interlink foresights in related areas and which barriers to mutual learning might be anticipated. The 2006 workshop on Healthy Ageing was held in Brussels and both EC representatives and experts on health and ageing were present. The participants of the meeting brought together a broad range of expertise on various aspects of Healthy Ageing and demographic change and the workshop provided an opportunity for rich discussion based on and positive constructive inputs from various standpoints. page 8 of 16

9 The results of the workshop are described in the EFMN Issue Analysis Report Its main conclusions are: The 20th century was a century of redistribution of income. The 21st century may be a century of redistribution of work. Such redistribution could spread work more evenly across people and over the ages of life. Individuals could combine work, education, leisure, and child-rearing in varying amounts at different ages. As Europe ages, the proportion of people in work will decline unless older individuals remain in the labour force. Such reform could be part of a more general redistribution of work. If a greater share of the population worked, then the average number of hours worked per week could be reduced. This could particularly help younger people and increase Europe s low birth rates. The new demography poses challenges to current labour practices and policies and offers individuals opportunities for greater life-course choice. To keep dependency ratios and hours worked per week per capita at current levels, it is necessary for age-specific patterns of work to change. Europe needs to promote flexible retirement as a function of individual needs and capabilities. Part time work will become more and more important because this allows the individual to combine work with leisure. More parttime work requires more institutional flexibility and more flexibility of employers. Europe also needs to promote and organize volunteer activities, very few people decide spontaneously to volunteer, they always have to be asked. More research must be devoted to productivity and ageing, in particular to the relationship between team productivity and age diversity. Productivity is not a simple sum of individual productivity. Another important area is job satisfaction - we will only be willing to work longer if we like our work well enough. Even a simple low paying job could be worthwhile if the group atmosphere is inspiring and of high quality. The main reason for disability nowadays is mental health problems. This is a telling sign that many people feel alienated at their workplace.. Some of this research could focus on improving the productivity of older workers through better work environments and lifelong learning. Not everyone has the skills and interests to carry out particular tasks. What kinds of education and organizational arrangements are required to match the labour force with work needs? Many older workers may prefer part-time work. More studies are needed on how to organize 20- and 30-hour work weeks so that they are profitable for organizations and satisfying for individuals. Foresight Briefs as Digests of Recent Foresight Exercises The Purpose of the Foresight Briefs An important feature to facilitate the information exchange through the network is the publication of EFMN-briefs. At this moment over 80 briefs have been produced and are available on the EFMN website. These briefs were produced by both the consortium partners, as well as by the correspondents of the EFMN. Foresight briefs are meant to provide readers with concise, up-to-date overview information on the motivations, the processes and the results of recent or ongoing foresight initiatives. They are intended to be sufficiently detailed to enable the reader to assess whether it would be worthwhile to take a closer look at the original sources or contact the people involved in the implementation of an exercise. A key requirement is also that the content presented should be relevant to decision-makers in European, national and regional policy, as well as in industry. It is considered that interested stakeholders, strategists, practitioners and researchers also count as potential users of the briefs. With this audience in mind, foresight briefs should be concise and easily accessible in terms of language and style, and at the same time contain up-to-date useful information. Four main criteria can thus be formulated that should be met by a good foresight brief: Actuality: The foresight results reported should be of recent nature and certainly not older than two to three years. Intermediate results from ongoing activities are also very welcome. Relevance: The briefs should focus on issues that are likely to be of interest to policy professionals especially to RTD policy professionals and they should elaborate on issues of relevance to RTD policy. Anticipation: The reported foresight initiative should look at medium- to long-term issues and at a time horizon of 5-20 years depending on the S&T dynamics of the area under consideration. Participation: The underlying activities should be highly participatory in nature. From the point of view of potential authors, who are themselves often actively involved in the implementation of specific foresight exercises, the foresight briefs represent a unique opportunity to present their work to an international community of peers and enter into a process of exchange of information with other experts and practitioners. The success of the foresight briefs thus depends on the willingness of the foresight community to make interesting contributions to the growing list of briefs and thus jointly build up a rich contentdriven information base on the most recent foresight activities not only in Europe but in other regions of the world. page 9 of 16

10 expected from authors. In general, foresight briefs should be based on the results of particular Foresight or Foresightrelated initiatives. They may draw upon foresight experience of individual countries, regions and industries, but also on municipal, regional, cross-border and international activities. The Production of Briefs The process of preparing foresight briefs should be fast and simple in order to allow for very recent foresight results to be taken into account. At the same time, a high level of quality control must be ensured for three main reasons: The selection of foresight briefs has to take care of a good balance in terms of geographic and thematic coverage. The accuracy, interest and relevance of the content presented must be checked by a review process. Foresight briefs are supposed to follow certain guidelines in terms of structure format and style. As a consequence, a multi stage process has been designed, distinguishing between a selection, a preparation and a quality control phase. This process is led and overseen by ARC systems research, but the core partners of EFMN also intervene at different stages of the process to help the authors of foresight briefs and ensure the networked operation of briefs production: 5 Call for proposals Sent in proposals Correspondent Core partner Correspondent Selection and feedback Preparation of brief Ad hoc initiative The Content of the Foresight Briefs The decisive quality of a Foresight Brief consists of highlighting interesting results from recent foresight activities, pointing to future challenges and opportunities for policy and society. The following main types of Foresight Briefs can be distinguished: Overview Briefs covering the full range of activities within a large-scale foresight project such as a national foresight program, with the aim of giving an overview of its main activities and some key findings. Single Issue Briefs highlighting selected and interesting findings from individual foresight activities. They can cover scientific-technological issues, but equally socioeconomic aspects or concentrate on system-level considerations for STI-policy. Other Briefs highlighting other interesting findings in relation with foresight activities. In particular these may be first evaluation results of the impact of past foresight activities, or good practices as regards the integration of foresight into other policy-making processes. In some selected cases, interesting methodological inroads may be addressed. For now the foresight briefs are four-page documents that follow a well defined common structure. Those already available on the EFMN website give a good idea of what is Core partner Lay out of brief Correspondent Finalization of brief Core partner Quality control The regular calls for abstracts are issued and supervised by ARC systems research as the lead partner for the production of foresight briefs. Experts are free to propose initiatives on an ad hoc basis. Several EFMN partners are in charge of identifying and contacting potential authors, for instance based on overview information on foresight activities from the Dynamo database, in order to raise awareness and stimulate interest in the call for foresight briefs. Based on the submitted abstracts of briefs the EFMN core members in conjunction with DG RTD/K2, those briefs are selected that should be produced. Some of the proposals are retained on a rolling list of candidate briefs that could be produced at a later stage. ARC systems research - the core EFMN partner responsible for the production of briefs gives advice to authors on any questions 5 For more details on the overall process of producing briefs, see the Foresight Briefs Reference Manual on the EFMN website. page 10 of 16

11 they may have in the course of the preparation of a brief. A review process of draft briefs is foreseen which is also performed by ARC systems research. Finally, final editing, formatting and publication on the EFMN website are in the hands of CKA, the core partner in charge of dissemination. Status on briefs production After a slow start in the first year of the EFMN, resulting in the production of some 30 briefs, over 80 briefs are now available on the EFMN portal. This is more than actually planned. All are interesting and diverse in scope. In the future we will emphasize the production of briefs related to activities in non EU countries and we would like to ask our network to come up with proposals. At this moment, several proposals are already in the pipeline. Cooperation with other correspondents in the Network is beginning to take off. More and more briefs are produced by correspondents that see high added value in contributing to the work of the EFMN, as the briefs they write are downloadable on the EFMN website and notification of publication is sent to more than 2000 experts all over the world. A small financial contribution of 450 for the production of briefs also helps. In future, the type of briefs considered for publication will be extended to cover ongoing exercises, happenings and other relevant, informative initiatives. All to better inform our network on what is going on in the field of future initiatives. We will keep you informed; please also inform us! Information Exchange The EFMN Portal One of the most important interfaces to the public is the public website The goal of the website is to broadly disseminate results derived on the basis of the EFMN contract. Our ambition is that the EFMN site will be recognized as the most important and most visible reference for foresight in Europe. To make the site more generally useful and attractive to foresight professionals and policy researchers a range of functions are offered. And we are succeeding. Each month the site now receives around hits, and about 2,000 briefs are downloaded from the website. We believe that this will continue to increase after every mailing we send to the network showing the availability of new content on the website. This can be seen in the following chart. The following basic foresight related resources are provided on the EFMN portal: A description of the EFMN initiative, A description of The Foresight Knowledge Sharing Platform of which the EFMN is a part, The Country Guides to Regional Foresight, The Blueprints on regional foresight, A Calendar of foresight events in the coming months, An downloadable overview of Briefs produced by the EFMN, Access to most of the foresight exercises and other future studies identified. An important aspect of the web-site is support for the visualization of information gathered under the mapping and brief writing activities JAN05 FEB05 MAR05 APR05 MAY05 JUN05 JUL05 AUG05 SEP05 An interactive Table 2: Available resources bar-chart gives Resource Current Projected an overview of Number 2008 the resources Briefs available in the Initiatives site. For the moment this Other Documents bar chart interface provides a breakdown by country of the page 11 of 16 OCT05 NOV05 DEC05 JAN06 FEB06 MAR06 APR06 MAY06 Page view Download (x10) An interactive EU map is provided that executes a search by simply clicking on a country. An interactive World Map executes a search by simply clicking on a region. This map is accessed by clicking on the inset of the EU Map. Also now available is a new mapping interface that enables in depth analysis and exploratory searching of the data collected. Interactive Searches and the Visualization of Mapping Data The intention is that a visitor to the site should be able to execute a search in a simple intuitive way and without any initiation. This will reassure the user that the site contains useful information and encourage them to explore further. The current default is that the search lists all resources related to a given country. These resources are briefs that result from the brief writing task, initiatives that have been mapped under the mapping initiative as well as other documents. This category is quite open and could include for example the country guides, the blueprints or the reports derived from other activities of the Foresight Knowledge Sharing Platform. The briefs are contained in the database on the EFMN site whereas the initiatives reside on the DYNAMO system. The EFMN site is linked to the DYNAMO site to make all of this information online available through a single integrated portal. JUN06 JUL06 AUG06

12 number of written briefs, mapped initiatives and available other documents concerning that country. These three items are represented by 3 different colors. These bars are interactive in the sense that if you click on the yellow part of the bar for Denmark a list of the mapped initiatives for Denmark is generated. The intention is that the interactive bar-chart allows a comparison by country as well as simple and easy exploration of the detail represented by each bar. Overviews of outputs delivered, using specific methods, Downloading of reports of specific foresight exercises. A series of Quick Searches are also available simply by clicking on briefs, initiatives and other documents or new resources. At this moment about 1400 resources are currently available on the site. Our intention is that after a full four-year projectcycle the projected number of available resources will number more than 2500 and that the distribution list will comprise as many as 10,000 members.. To facilitate the gathering of data on existing initiatives, the website supports an interactive form via which any visitor to the site can inform the EFMN team. Information on additional foresight initiatives that are worthy of mapping are asked to be send to the EFMN team. The EFMN Mailing Lists To facilitate work and dissemination of information, mailing lists have been established. These mailing lists are usable by the public to get in contact with the network layers of the EFMN, but are managed so spam is filtered. The main mailing list is the news list. It contains over 2,000 members and is used to send updates of new information available on the site. The Correspondents list has 108 members and is used for general communication with the correspondent network. The DYNAMO Expert System The information management system used in the Network is the TNO Dynamo expert system. Dynamo is developed in cooperation with the Dutch Ministry of Economic Affairs and designed to systematically gather information about future developments. The basic function of Dynamo is to offer an interface to efficiently collect information about identified foresight exercises. The main feature of Dynamo is the use of several predetermined classifications such as the type of audience, methods used, time horizon and budget to name but a few. This enables quick characterization of the foresight exercises in minutes because the information is enter by simply clicking on the relevant classes. This feature also enables cross tabulation, comparing for example Methods used with type of Sponsor. Many of these cross tabulations are available online via the EFMN portal providing almost real time representation of the mapping data. Some examples are: Straight overview of foresight exercises included per country and year, Cross tabulations of Audience by. Country group, Overviews of foresight exercises focusing on specific industrial sectors, markets or research areas, Another feature is that Dynamo offers an open source structure where the entered information can be adjusted by other users of Dynamo. If other experts have additional information on specific exercises, they can easily add this information. The Dynamo system is also used to gather contact information on the correspondents. In November 2005 the number of correspondents using Dynamo was around 100, and at this moment this is increased to 170 correspondents. Topics collected as subjects for candidate briefs are managed in the Dynamo system as a Rolling List. Access to Dynamo is restricted to the EFMN team and the correspondents. Not all of the information collected in Dynamo is up to date and some checking needs to be done. Progress has been made to map all collected foresight exercises to the level that title, description, sponsor, executor, contact, website, uploaded reports, country and time horizon are available. This information is dynamically linked to the EFMN public website. As Dynamo is mainly a platform for collecting information, other projects like ForSociety and ForLearn also make use of the information present.. Subsets of information on foresight exercises are available on the EFMN portal via a link to Dynamo. This will enhance the efficiency and effectiveness of data collection. page 12 of 16

13 The Work that Lies Ahead The first year of the EFMN initiative was the year for getting things going and initiating the Network. This proved to be a complex and challenging task and we learned many things along the way. The period saw some changes, and the existence of the EFMN was broadly communicated to the existing foresight community and to other users of foresight information. The number of correspondents connected to EFMN can still be improved, although the current number of 170 experts is a strong basis. Until now their active involvement has been limited, but their participation is increasing. More and more briefs are written by correspondents and they are increasingly involved in the identification of new initiatives. Over the next year we intend to have more correspondents which are also more actively involved in gathering new foresight information and including into our database. Also the correspondents will be increasingly asked to produce briefs and gather information about emerging issues. The first EFMN Day is organized in September Active correspondents and the EFMN team will meet to discuss foresight activities in Europe and the rest of the world. This will become an annual happening. The mapping of foresight exercises will continue throughout next year. The EFMN team is aiming at collecting an additional 1000 exercises over the next period. However one of the most important aims will be to increase the quality of information on the exercises already collected. Improving this and creating a more balanced knowledge base will enable interesting analysis of high added value to the foresight community dealing with issues such as shifting focus or important new methods and outcomes. In the spring of 2007 a new Call for Exercises will be issued to the network. The data gathered will be analyzed before summer 2007 and will provide information for the third Annual Mapping Report. The issues analysis carried out in led to an interesting workshop about Healthy ageing. Next year, the connection to the mapped exercises will be further improved and we are confident that even more interesting information will be brought to the surface. A systematic overview of emerging issues is scheduled for Also a new important issue will be selected for in-dept analysis next autumn. The briefs production is well on its way and proves to bring a steady number of interesting topics. Next year some 40 additional briefs will be produced, but the input of correspondents is important. The possibility of new types of briefs will be further explored, for example to quickly describe ongoing foresight exercises. Three Calls for briefs are scheduled for the period , one in November 2006 and one each in February and May You are invited to get in contact with the Work Package Leader for briefs production if you are interested in contributing to this task. achieve a total circulation of about 10,000 subscribers. About 2,400 names have been gathered in the course of but this task will become more intensive in the next year. We have delayed mass mailings until the site is stable and contains information of interest to the foresight community. If you are interested to receive information, please get in contact with CKA - the work package leader for dissemination. To conclude the EFMN is now fully in place and will play its role as a spider in the foresight community, offering a platform for knowledge dissemination. How to Become a Correspondent If you are interested in becoming a correspondent for the EFMN, we would like to ask you to get in contact with the EFMN team. The task of facilitating the work of correspondents is divided up among the members of the team as presented in the table on the last page. To become a correspondent, it is sufficient to send an to your coordinator including name, organization, , phone number and country. These can be contacted directly by by clicking on the name in the EFMN portal. They will get in touch with you to discuss your possible role in the network. You will be send background information on the EFMN, as well as documentation on how to write briefs and fill in information on foresight exercises and TNO will provide you with a login and password for DYNAMO. As a correspondent we expect you to play an active role in the EFMN. Possible contributions are: Attracting other possible correspondents, Including new foresight exercises into Dynamo, Identifying new possible topics for briefs, Production of briefs. As a correspondent you will have full access to Dynamo including in depth information on foresight exercises and you may be invited to the annual Issue Analysis workshop. An EFMN conference is scheduled for 2006 and all active correspondents will be invited. The briefs you produce will be distributed to the foresight community giving you and our organization exposure and recognition by the greater foresight community. Becoming an EFMN correspondent is one way of getting more involved in an active global network of foresight researchers and policy professionals. The information structure will be further developed in the coming period. The EFMN website and the Dynamo system are being continuously improved and comments from the user network are always appreciated. Our ambition is to eventually page 13 of 16