The Coming Insurrection and how it may Transform Expected Futures.

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1 An Interes*ng Day in Amsterdam of the Dutch Future Society ( #DFS2016 ) The Coming Insurrection and how it may Transform Expected Futures. workshop, 16:15 16:55 AmsterdamConnected Jaap van Till, TheConnectivist Tildro Research, The Netherlands jvantill (CC) Jaap van *ll,

2 Summary and Introduction : Times are a-changing. That means that we also have to change our views on the future to what might lead us in a constructive way through the major structural transitions. We can see that many national elections and referenda are signals of protest against the establishment powers. These have failed to see that many seemingly solid assumptions and policies are either false or do not work anymore: abundant raw materials, scarcity of information, hierarchies, upward movement in lower/ middle classes, neoliberal market mantras. The resulting ANGER and Insurrections have been averted by the elites by blaming "others". The resulting wave of hatred and even open racism is similar to the popular fascist movements in the 1930's after the 30 Crash. We are now in a similar position: after the Crash of The only alternative to endless hate and destruction is to start a wave of constructive interconnection and online ICT collaboration I call Synthecracy which can create value, wealth and jobs for the young. 2

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4 What things are over their validity date? Increasing inequality and freezing of mobility Communism AND Kapitalism (NeoLib) do not work anymore as a total solution / out of proportions. Market disfunctions. Nation States?? Hierarchies disfunction, slow and ill-informed. Education, knowledge can not prepare for change and new insights/ patterns. Skills, Crafts Simplicity & linear & static models Everything connected Complexity (ecologies) 4

5 Present 2008 Crisis/ Recession is a Transi*on. Educa*on? Jobs? Tools Wealth crea*on?? EACH TECHNOLOGICAL REVOLUTION PROPAGATES IN TWO DIFFERENT PERIODS The first half sets up the infrastructure and lets the markets pick the winners the second half reaps the full economic and social potential INSTALLATION INSTALLATION Turning Point DEPLOYMENT DEPLOYMENT Degree of diffusion of the new technological potential Creative destruction Learning the new unlearning the old A great market experiment Led by financial capital Ending in a stock market crash Major technology bubble Uncertainty, institutional recomposition and role shift Creative construction Led by production capital Applying the paradigm to innovate across all sectors and to spread the social benefits more widely Until maturity and exhaustion big-bang 2O - 30 years??? 2O - 30 years Next big-bang Time Prof. 5 Carlota Perez University College London We are here, ICT = General Purpose Technology

6 Herstel? Wereld zit nog steeds in een Crisis, en midden in een Transitie (NL Gouden Eeuw ) Vorige = Industriele Know How: gedreven door Olie, Chemie en Electro-Mechanica als General Purpose Technology. Grote bedrijven waren de hoofd spelers. Huidige G.P.T. = ICT: Computer HW, SW en Verbindingen ertussen. Zit overal in. The Age of Infrastructure (Rifkin) 6

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8 THE NEW vs. THE TRADITIONAL PARADIGM ( Perez [12] A RADICAL AND DIFFICULT SHIFT IN MANAGERIAL COMMON SENSE (part 1) CONVENTIONAL COMMON SENSE NEW EFFICIENCY PRINCIPLES AND PRACTICES COMMAND AND CONTROL STRUCTURE AND GROWTH PARTS AND LINKS Centralized command Vertical control Cascade of supervisory levels "Management knows best" Stable pyramid, growing in height and complexity as it expands Clear vertical links Separate, specialized functional departments Central goal-setting and coordination Local autonomy/horizontal self-control Self-assessing/self-improving units Participatory decision-making Flat, flexible network of very agile units Remains flat as it expands Interactive, cooperative links between functions, along each product line STYLE OF OPERATION PERSONNEL AND TRAINING 8 Optimized smooth running organizations Standard routines and procedures "There is one best way" Definition of individual tasks Single function specialization Single top-down line of command Single bottom-up information flow Labor as variable cost Market provides trained personnel People to fit the fixed posts Discipline as main quality Continuous learning and improvement Flexible system/adaptable procedures "A better way can always be found" Definition of group tasks Multi-skilled personnel/ad hoc teams Widespread delegation of decision making Multiple horizontal and vertical flows Labor as human capital Much in-house training and retraining Variable posts/adaptable people Initiative/collaboration/motivation

9 h]ps:// ZqqZ- g The Two Phases of Lightning THE NEW vs. THE TRADITIONAL PARADIGM (Perez [12]) A RADICAL AND DIFFICULT SHIFT IN MANAGERIAL COMMON SENSE (part 2) EQUIPMENT AND INVESTMENT PRODUCTION PROGRAMMING PRODUCTIVITY MEASUREMENT SUPPLIERS, CLIENTS AND COMPETITORS Dedicated equipment One optimum plant size for each product Each plant anticipates demand growth Strive for economies of scale for mass production Keep production rhythm; Use inventory to accommodate variation in demand. Produce for stock; shed labor in slac A specific measure for each department (purchasing, production, marketing, etc.) ercent tolerance on quality and rejects Separation from the outside world: Foster price competition among suppliers Make standard products for mass customers Arms length oligopoly with competitors The firm as a closed system Adaptable/programmable/flexible equipment Many efficient sizes/optimum relative Organic growth closely following demand Choice or combination of economies of scale, scope or specialization Adapt rhythm to variation in demand Minimize response time ("Just-in-time") Use slack for maintenance and training Total productivity measured along the whole chain for each product line Strive for zero defects and zero rejects Strong interaction with outside world: Collaborative links with suppliers, with customers and, in some cases, with competitors (Basic R&D for instance) The firm as an open system Prof. Carlota Perez shows us the way out of the crises! General Purpose Technolgy (GPT): Electro / mechanical/ chemical ICT / Network Technology 9

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11 Zie: 11

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13 Pirate Party Iceland 13

14 Value of ICT Networks and Networking? The four Network Effects. I. Sarnoff s Law: Media, Broadcasting networks. Value ~ N (number of viewers/ Eyeballs) Additive. Value for advertisers. Supplyside. Exmpl: FIFA: football commercials [CableCo s] II. Metcalfe s Law: Communication networks. Value ~ N ^2 ( number of participants that can communicate with eachother). Quadratic. Value for the networkoperator. [Telco s] III Reed s Law: Number of Tribes you can be member of or not. Value ~ 2 ^ N Exponential through Internet. Value for (adspiring) people to be one of the members. IV Van Till s Law: Value for the participants for their unique contribution in network collaborative COOPERATION. Synergy by networked combinations, diversity. Value ~ N! ( N factorial = N * N-1 * N-2 * N-3 *..*1 ) New Power! Multiplicative Value for the team empowered participants with unique skills. P2P Coop s SHARING = VALUE MULTIPLICATION THROUGH NETWORKING Demandside Link : (Only valid in Dutch)

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16 Hanze Silk Route 16 Recently noticed growth pattern of prosperity Corridoria String of Cities, from mid-uk to Istanbul

17 From Galway Dublin to Shanghai Low Latency Op*c Fiber Cables Rail 17 Corridoria String of Ci*es. They are listed on [2] China is construc*ng new silkroute rail[3]

18 Core message: ( Complete opposite of what the national populists propose ) Connect diverse knowledge, specialties, people and Cooperate & Collaborate in Commons, Coops Trans-Tribal 18

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