Thinking outside the North Sea. When is global domination not global domination? February 2011

Transcription

1 Thinking outside the North Sea When is global domination not global domination? February 2011

2 ODS-Petrodata is recognised as the leading provider of market intelligence to the global oil and gas industry News I Databases I Consulting ODS-Petrodata is an independent market intelligence company 130+ employees - market reporters, specialists and analysts - Houston, Aberdeen, Oslo, Singapore and Dubai Our knowledge base stretches from pre-exploration through field abandonment - Well Services, Field Development, LNG, Onshore Production and Downstream, as well as Offshore Seismic, Drilling and Marine Operations Page 2

3 Thinking outside the North Sea The North Sea is still the key region for subsea work But with subsea installation competition increasing, where else can contractors look? Three vessel types: - Diving support (DP 2+) - ROV support (DP 2+) - Multiservice (DP 2+) Page 3

4 Vessel Days Rumours of the North Sea s decline are exaggerated Subsea Vessel Days By Region ( ) 80,000 70,000 60,000 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10, % 26% 22% 23% South America Russia & Caspian North America Med. & Middle East Europe Central America Asia-Pacific Africa Europe Protected by Copyright (c) ODS-Petrodata Ltd. Source: ODS-Petrodata, January 2011 Page 4

5 Vessel Days but a smaller share of an expanding global market Subsea Vessel Days By Region ( ) 80,000 70,000 60,000 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000 0 For more information please contact your ODS-Petrodata account manager 25% 24% 26% 27% South America Russia & Caspian North America Med. & Middle East Europe Central America Asia-Pacific Africa Europe Protected by Copyright (c) ODS-Petrodata Ltd. Source: ODS-Petrodata, January 2011 Page 5

6 Vessel Days Supply has increased much faster over the same period Subsea Vessel Supply By Region ( ) Africa Asia-Pacific Central America Europe Med. & Middle East North America Russia & Caspian South America Protected by Copyright (c) ODS-Petrodata Ltd. Source: ODS-Petrodata, February 2011 Page 6

7 Utilisation % European utilisation is flattening after downturn Subsea Vessel Utilisation By Region ( ) Africa Asia-Pacific Central America Europe Med. & Middle East North America Russia & Caspian South America Protected by Copyright (c) ODS-Petrodata Ltd. Source: ODS-Petrodata, February 2011 Page 7

8 Big Three dominate European subsea vessels market Subsea Vessel Market Shares (Europe ) Others 41% Subsea 7 31% Trico/DeepOcean/CTC 13% Technip 15% Protected by Copyright (c) ODS-Petrodata Ltd. Source: ODS-Petrodata, January 2011 Page 8

9 but this domination is not worldwide Regional Subsea Vessels Market Share In Vessel Days Subsea 7: 3% Technip: 3% Trico: 0% Subsea 7: 2% Technip: 3% Trico: 10% Subsea 7: 27% Technip: 6% Trico: 1% Subsea 7: 31% Technip: 14% Trico:13% Subsea 7: 17% Technip: 5% Trico: 1% Subsea 7: 0% Technip: 0% Trico: 0% Subsea 7: 1% Technip: 6% Trico: 7% Subsea 7: 3% Technip: 12% Trico: 5% Page 9

10 Russ. & Casp. SOCAR DOF N Most markets are dominated by regional players 100% Subsea Vessel Regional Market Shares ( ) Other Other Other 50% Maersk Supply Service Saipem SBM Other Other Bibby Offshore DOF Subsea Trico Other Other Toisa Fugro DOF Subsea Subsea 7 Bourbon Allied Marine Hallin Marine TSMarine DOF Subsea Technip MMM Oceanografia Condux Trico Cotemar Technip Subsea 7 Technip Trico Qatar Subsea Algosaibi Saipem Saipem Global Industries Veolia Environmental Services Algosaibi Oceaneering Sealion Subsea 7 0% 0% Africa Asia- Pacific Central America 50% Europe Med. & Middle East North America South America 100% Page 10

11 Why the gaps in global coverage? Asia-Pacific - Shallow and benign waters. DP vessels achieve higher rates elsewhere Central America - PEMEX favours Mexican contractors to meet local content requirements - Generally shallow waters in Mexican Gulf of Mexico very low day rates North America - The Jones Act US-built and US-flagged vessels owned and crewed by US citizens South America - Regulatory hurdles in Brazil for foreign companies seeking to bid - Important to establish a relationship with Petrobras Page 11

12 How can these doors be opened? Asia-Pacific - Opportunity is there if contractors are willing to accept lower day rates - Deeper waters offshore Australia will be key area going forward Central America - Hire Mexican workers for vessels, and also accept lower day rates North America - Toughest regional market for a foreign contractor to enter - Charter vessels and crew from US-based companies South America - Winning long-term contracts with Petrobras is key to becoming established - Partnering a local company to bid for work Page 12

13 Another option mergers and acquisitions ODS-Petrodata forecasts a busy year for mergers and acquisitions At least five big deals (>USD 1 billion each) in 2011 Three or more of these deals will involve offshore or services companies Technip acquired Subocean January paved the way - Acergy/Subsea 7 - Ezra/Aker Marine Contractors - Fugro/Riise Page 13

14 Which companies are potential takeover targets? Cal Dive Global Industries Trico Marine/ DeepOcean / CTC Key Subsea Regions Asia-Pacific Med. & Middle East North America Med. & Middle East North America Asia-Pacific Central America Europe Med. & Middle East 12 ROV Support Subsea Vessels Managed 1 Diving Support 1 Multiservice 2 Diving Support 2 ROV Support 1 Multiservice 2 ROV Support Newbuilds Vessel Utilisation % 64% 60% Net Profit Margin % 8% -23% Backlog Q USD million USD million - Vessel Data Source: ODS-Petrodata, February 2, 2011 Page 14

15 Buying individual vessels may be another option One Subsea 7 diving support vessel to be divested - North Sea competition concerns SBM may be considering selling Dynamic Installer - Africa entry point for new contractor? Break-up of Trico fleet could continue - Trico Sabre and Trico Star already sold to Ezra Vessels may be available at knockdown prices Page 15

16 Summary A future beyond the North Sea? The North Sea is still the world s largest subsea region - Typically between one third and one quarter of the global market each year But its share of an expanding global market is shrinking - Asia-Pacific a particularly strong market for diving work Competition is fiercer in the North Sea than anywhere else - 50 of the 126 global contractors operate in the North Sea Contractors seeking new horizons face varying hurdles - In a tight but expanding market, few will be able to rest on their laurels The North Sea is key, but the potential rewards elsewhere are huge Page 16

17 Contact information Aberdeen 2nd Floor The Exchange No. 1 Market Street Aberdeen AB11 5PJ Scotland Tel: Fax: Houston Suite Wilcrest Dr. Houston, Texas USA Tel: Fax: Singapore Nordic European Centre 3 International Business Park Singapore Tel: Fax: Oslo Postal Address: P.O.Box 1875, Vika NO-0124 Oslo Norway Office Address: Tjuvholmen allé 3, 6th fl. NO-0252 Oslo Norway Tel: Dubai Postal Address: P.O. Box Dubai, UAE Office Address: Crown Plaza 19th Floor Sheikh Zayed Road Dubai United Arab Emirates Tel: Fax: Mark Rae Senior Market Analyst mrae@ods-petrodata.com Page 17