Mobility-as-a-Service and its effect on Toll Facilities

Transcription

1 Mobility-as-a-Service and its effect on Toll Facilities Sooner or Later? By Rick Gobeille Senior Principal, Stantec Haley Collins Transportation Planner, Stantec

2 Outline of Presentation Toll Facility Forecasting Google Glass Example When Will Core Technology Be Available? When Will A Geographic Location Be Ready? When Will The Technology Adoption Happen? Conclusion

3 Outline of Presentation Toll Facility Forecasting Google Glass Example When Will Core Technology Be Available? When Will A Geographic Location Be Ready? When Will The Technology Adoption Happen? Conclusion

4 Toll Facility Forecasting Toll Facility Characteristics Existing Facility Forecast Horizon 5 to 10 years Typically A Lot of Performance History Nearby Area Well Developed and Understood Green Field Project Forecast Horizon 30 to 40 years Typically Very Little Performance History Nearby Area Usually Not Well Developed and Not Well Understood

5 Toll Facility Forecasting Toll Facility Modeling Techniques Existing Facility Often Use Trend-Line Static Models Small Range on Socio-Economic Variables Higher Confidence of Forecasts Green Field Project Often Use Sophisticated 4-Step Travel Models Wide Range on Socio-Economic Variables Lower Confidence of Forecasts, Particularly in Later Years

6 Toll Facility Forecasting MaaS and Toll Facility Modeling Techniques MaaS Introduces Some Level of Uncertainty to All Forecasts Will it Increase or Decrease Travel? Will it Change People s Value of Time? Will it Happen Sooner or Later?

7 Toll Facility Forecasting MaaS and Toll Facility Modeling Techniques

8 CALIBRATION LATER

9 CALIBRATION SOONER CALIBRATION SOONER

10 Outline of Presentation Toll Facility Forecasting Google Glass Example When Will Core Technology Be Available? When Will A Geographic Location Be Ready? When Will The Technology Adoption Happen? Conclusion

11 Google Glass Example Technology Innovation in Technology For All Market Consumer, Worldwide Publicity Investment $ Billions Forecasted Sales (2014) 21.1 Million Sold in 2018

12 Google Glass Example Public Acceptance Product Removed January 2015 Technology New, Different Technological Uses Assisted and Augmented Reality Market Targeted Commercial (Not Widespread Consumer)

13 GOOGLE GLASSES LATER (and different)

14 Outline of Presentation Toll Facility Forecasting Google Glass Example When Will Core Technology Be Available? When Will A Geographic Location Be Ready? When Will The Technology Adoption Happen? Conclusion

15 Seat Belt Usage Patented Nash Required firstsaab Seat in First introduces belt 90% law required Adoption requiring Rate option seat racing belts on cars as cars passengers standard in all cars on wear one seat Model belt

16 SEAT BELT USAGE LATER

17 Vehicle Fleet How Long For 50% Fleet Turnover? YEAR AVERAGE VEHICLE AGE (years) VEHICLES AGED 10+ YEARS YEARS TO 50% FLEET TURNOVER % % % 9-10

18 VEHICLE FLEET TURNOVER LATER

19 Outline of Presentation Toll Facility Forecasting Google Glass Example When Will Core Technology Be Available? When Will A Geographic Location Be Ready? When Will The Technology Adoption Happen? Conclusion

20 Older Cities Developed Infrastructure (New York City) Present Horse-car Cross Bronx Brooklyn-Queens Side Streetcars Elevated Lines SubwayWest Dense, urban, Trolley Lines Expresswaymulti-modal Expressway Elevated Highway

21 DEVELOPED INFRASTRUCTURE - LATER

22 Middle Aged Cities Newish Infrastructure (Dallas) Present Horse Sprawling, suburban, Area Rapid Roadway network Horse US Dallas 75 DART Rail and Buggyto auto dependent Transit (DART) approved accommodate the vehicle and Buggy

23 NEWISH INFRASTRUCTURE SOONER/LATER

24 New Cities Brand New Infrastructure (Toronto/Sidewalk Labs)???? Source: Sidewalk Toronto, Rountable 3 Image Gallery????

25 BRAND NEW INFRASTRUCTURE SOONER

26 Outline of Presentation Toll Facility Forecasting Google Glass Example When Will Core Technology Be Available? When Will A Geographic Location Be Ready? When Will The Technology Adoption Happen? Conclusion

27 Technological Adoption Smartphones Technology Innovation in Technology For All Market Consumer, Worldwide Publicity Investment $ Billions Forecasted Sales (2014) 21.1 Million Sold in 2018

28 Technological Adoption E-ZPass Year Tappan Zee Bridge Transaction(billions) Transponders(millions) Registered Vehicles % % % % % %

29 Technological Adoption Travel Frequency Frequent Customers Matter Presented many times on this at IBTTA A high percentage of transactions are made by a small percentage of users. True for many things. E-ZPass Usage Health Clubs Memberships Cell Phones

30 TECHNOLOGICAL ADOPTION SOONER

31 Outline of Presentation Toll Facility Forecasting Google Glass Example When Will Core Technology Be Available? When Will A Geographic Location Be Ready? When Will The Technology Adoption Happen? Conclusion

32 When Will I Begin Including MaaS in My Forecasts It Depends Many Factors to Consider Sooner Greenfield Projects in Developing Areas Long Term Forecasts Later Legacy Facilities in Developed Areas Short Term Forecasts What Might the Impact Be Personally Leaning Towards More Trips

33 THANK YOU