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1 Future challenges for manufacturing This is the peer reviewed author accepted manuscript (post print) version of a published work that appeared in final form in: Bennett, David John 2014 'Future challenges for manufacturing' Journal of manufacturing technology management, vol. 25, no. 1, pp. 2-6 This un-copyedited output may not exactly replicate the final published authoritative version for which the publisher owns copyright. It is not the copy of record. This output may be used for noncommercial purposes. The final definitive published version (version of record) is available at: Persistent link to the Research Outputs Repository record: General Rights: Copyright and moral rights for the publications made accessible in the Research Outputs Repository are retained by the authors and/or other copyright owners and it is a condition of accessing publications that users recognize and abide by the legal requirements associated with these rights. Users may download and print one copy for the purpose of private study or research. You may not further distribute the material or use it for any profit-making activity or commercial gain You may freely distribute the persistent link identifying the publication in the Research Outputs Repository If you believe that this document breaches copyright please contact us providing details, and we will remove access to the work immediately and investigate your claim.
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3 Future Challenges for Manufacturing This is the second Editorial Viewoint I have written since taking the decision to move away from writing shorter editorial pieces for every issue of Journal of Manufacturing Technology Management. Once again, in each volume of the journal it gives me the opportunity to reflect on matters related to the editorial scope and provide a more in-depth commentary about the changes and developments I have seen. I took the opportunity in JMTM Volume 24, Issue 1 of looking back at the previous 22 years of manufacturing technology management since I become Editor of this journal (Bennett, 2013). Much had certainly changed in that time, with technology (hard and soft), production organisation and internationalisation all being identified as important areas where there have been significant shifts in the subject emphasis of published papers. Recognition of the changes and a need to keep abreast of developments in manufacturing has prompted regular reviews of the journal s editorial objective and scope. However, changes to any journal are made cautiously since publishers normally prefer to keep things as they are to avoid the risk of diverting away from the current interests of subscribers. Nonetheless, the developments in manufacturing over three decades have been significant enough to prompt not only new areas in the subject coverage of JMTM but also two changes in journal title, with only the word manufacturing still remaining from its beginnings in The last review of the scope of JMTM was around five years ago. I wrote in the Editorial for Volume 20, Issue 3 about a number of trends in manufacturing that warranted additions being made to the subject coverage. They were: energy use in production and green manufacturing / sustainability issues; production and distribution of food- and agro-based goods; resolving the complexity question in manufacturing that arises from greater customer choice and product variety; revisiting manufacturing strategy; workforce demographics; the role of the BRICs (and Africa?); the turbulent world economy and its effect on the geography of manufacturing; risk and security; manufacturing scale issues. The inclusion of many of these new subjects has subsequently been justified fully based on how much they have featured in the journal s contents. An analysis of articles published in the last five years provides some interesting observations. Eight articles about green manufacturing have been published since 2008, whereas there were none before. Thirteen articles related to sustainability have been published since 2008, compared with seven before. Eight articles have been concerned with food since 2008, compared with only one before. The results for articles on complexity, variety and manufacturing strategy are less startling, although probably because these are subjects that were already established in the manufacturing literature. But still they are being treated in new ways and the results presented in some of these articles often challenge the established view. What about the BRIC countries and Africa? Here too there has been a significant change. Brazil and China have for a long time been well represented in JMTM, but India has fast become featured among the authors and subjects of articles, with seventeen since 2008 but only four before then. Russia has not featured regularly, although Volume 21, Issue 8, contained a number of articles under the theme Emerging R&D and technology sources: a Russian perspective on the internationalisation of manufacturing technology. Only very few
4 articles have been about Africa or by African authors, with those largely coming from South Africa rather than the rest of the continent, but there is still a growing interest. Because the last review of JMTM s scope was only five years ago is there no need to undertake another review for a long while? Of course it does not. The World is for ever moving faster and so is manufacturing. With this in mind I have used two general sources in order to ascertain a consensus among the manufacturing community concerning the future of manufacturing. Firstly, I have done an analysis of the articles in JMTM, published since 2007, which have focused on future challenges for manufacturing. Secondly, I have considered the contents of two recent independent reports on the future of manufacturing; one from the USA and one from the UK. My search for articles in JMTM revealed sixty-six that were relevant; i.e. in which future and manufacturing feature in the title, abstract or keywords. Not surprisingly, those that featured most prominently were from a special issue on The Future of Manufacturing (Fleury, Gregory and Bennett, 2007). Here, a number of important themes emerged, namely the strategic roles of manufacturing, the post mass production paradigm, the manufacturing extraprise, workforce ageing, production systems evolution, China s future as a high-tech manufacturer, and dynamic capabilities in manufacturing firms. Looking at all of these themes it is hard to believe that any of them will diminish in importance. Manufacturing will become more strategic, not less; post industrialised countries are unlikely to revert to mass production; the World s workforce is unlikely to get younger; production systems will continue to evolve; China s manufacturing shows no sign of becoming lower tech; and passive capabilities will hardly become a fashionable manufacturing concept. But what of the other articles that emerged in the analysis? One of the main themes to emerge is, not surprisingly, sustainability. Although already mentioned earlier and already added to the subject scope of JMTM it still remains high on the agenda of future concerns. Others that are already in the scope, but also seen as increasingly important are; flexibility, global and extended supply chains, lean production, concurrent engineering, purchasing and materials management. There are also extensions to the current scope including six sigma in relation to quality management and TPM in relation to reliability and maintenance. The first of the two reports I have identified is by McKinsey & Company (Mankiya et al 2012) and published by the McKinsey Global Institute in cooperation with McKinsey Operations Practice. Called Manufacturing the future: The next era of global growth and innovation, it draws on the results of research in the automotive, aerospace, electronics, food, metals and pharmaceuticals industries. In particular it looks at how developing countries are moving up in manufacturing, with China moving from number 7 in 1980 to number 2 by 2010 in terms of manufacturing gross value added. In the same period India has moved from number 15 to number 10, while Germany has moved from number 2 to number 4 and the UK from number 4 to number 9. The report analyses in detail the reason for these changes, although generally it is concluded that manufacturing s share of GDP declines as countries become richer. For the future, there are a number of important observations in this report. The need for innovation and energy efficiency are evident and cannot be overstated. But there are also a number of others, most of which are strategic in nature. Outsourcing will continue but the risks must be recognised and managed; manufacturers should recognised their industry context and market requirements to determine their product and global footprint strategies;
5 agility will be important in terms of the need to move quickly and anticipate shifts in trends; manufacturers will need to adopt new approached and capabilities to enable them to work seamlessly with suppliers and partners; and they will need to invest in organisational change and talent. Perhaps most important is the need for manufacturing in more mature economies to be repositioned along the value chain. Here the example of the USA is given, where now more of the higher paid manufacturing jobs are in service-type activities such as design and purchasing in the upstream part of the value chain and customer care, marketing and sales in the downstream part. The theme of value chain repositioning leads conveniently to the second of the two reports that is also relevant to the future of manufacturing. This is a more focused study undertaken by the Royal Bank of Scotland on The Future of UK High Value Engineering (RBS 2012). It is based on desk research and a survey of 286 business leaders and decision makers in UK manufacturing. Against a background of the popular narrative about UK manufacturing being in gradual decline it identifies sectors where high growth potential is combined with high levels of R&D. These sectors are: aerospace and automotive industries; computers, electronics and optical products; electrical equipment; pharmaceutical manufacturing; metal and castings; machinery and equipment; nuclear industry. So-called High Value Engineering in the identified sectors depends on a number of game-changing technologies, i.e. micro- and nano-electronics, advanced materials, industrial biotechnology, photonics, nano-technology and advanced manufacturing systems. To reinforce its message the RBS report presents a number of R&D Case studies that illustrate the application of these game-changing technologies and the factory of the future that it is predicted will comprise machines that design themselves, high levels of automation, fabrication hubs located close to where a manufactured product will be used, and machine-tomachine cloud connectivity. To complement these technological imperatives will also be the supply chains of the future, which for successful companies would involve splintering the supply chain into smaller, nimbler configurations to build resilience against uncertainty. Taking all the evidence from JMTM itself together with these external reports, a picture starts to emerge about the journal editorial objectives and subject scope that reflects what is likely to be the reality of manufacturing in the next decade. The objective remains robust, by giving coverage to subjects relating to management of manufacturing technology and the integration of the design, production, marketing and supply functions of enterprises. But at the same time the picture reveals a number of gaps in coverage that should be more explicitly articulated. These are: - Collaborative manufacturing and extended enterprises. - Knowledge-based engineering and manufacturing. - Industrial application of rapid manufacturing techniques. - Manufacturing outsourcing and offshoring. - Servitization of manufacturing and product-service systems. - Modular design and production. - Traceability and monitoring of production (mobile, wireless & RFID applications). - Management of production in emerging and high growth industrial sectors. - High value manufacturing and value stream mapping. - R&D management in manufacturing industries.
6 - Advanced Manufacturing Technology selection and adoption. - Enterprise resources and materials requirements planning. - Assembly planning and materials flow management. Of course, as always with papers in JMTM, for articles to be relevant to its objectives they should continue to have practical application for manufacturing management issues and not be purely concerned with technology alone. References: Bennett D (2013) Tracking the Trends in Manufacturing Technology Management, Journal of Manufacturing Technology Management, Vol 24, No 1. Fleury A, Gregory M and Bennett D (eds) The Future of Manufacturing, Journal of Manufacturing Technology Management, Vol 18, No 8. Mankiya J, et al (2012) Manufacturing the future: The next era of global growth and innovation, McKinsey Global Institute, November. RBS (2012) The Future of UK High Value Engineering, Royal Bank of Scotland, October.
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