IEEE International Vacuum Electronics Conference TWTA On-Orbit Reliability of. the SSL Satellite Fleet. 4 authors, including: Presentation April 2016

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1 See discussions, stats, and author profiles for this publication at: IEEE International Vacuum Electronics Conference TWTA On-Orbit Reliability of the SSL Satellite Fleet Presentation April 2016 DOI: /RG CITATIONS 0 READS 3 4 authors, including: Eric Nicol Wei Huang Lockheed Martin Corporation 25 PUBLICATIONS 330 CITATIONS 7 PUBLICATIONS 27 CITATIONS SEE PROFILE SEE PROFILE Some of the authors of this publication are also working on these related projects: TWTA vs. SSPA View project All content following this page was uploaded by Eric Nicol on 03 March The user has requested enhancement of the downloaded file.

2 April 19-21, 2016 IEEE International Vacuum Electronics Conference TWTA On-Orbit Reliability of the SSL Satellite Fleet Eric F. Nicol Jason Robison Wei Huang Randall Ortland Grant S. Saechao (SSL Student Intern) Alexander Ayala (SSL Student Intern) Space Systems/Loral, LLC 3825 Fabian Way Palo Alto, Ca USA

3 Topics SSL On-Orbit Satellite Fleet Details Considerations Within the Analysis SSL Relative Reliability Rates for TWTAs Comparative Results to Previous Studies Conclusions 1

4 SSL On-Orbit Satellite Fleet Details (1 of 4) SSL satellite fleet has an extensive on-orbit TWTA heritage. From Mid 1990s through December 2015: 3985 TWTAs accumulated over 210 million hours on-orbit or 23,974 amplifier-years on orbit. The SSL satellite fleet has accumulated over 850 GEO spacecraft years on-orbit. 88 GEO communication satellites used for this analysis. 2

5 SSL On-Orbit Satellite Fleet Details (2 of 4) Previous similar analyses also include SSPA relative FIT rate [1-3]: The focus of this presentation is on TWTA reliability performance as compared to previous studies and will not include 2015 SSPA reliability statistics. 1. TWTA versus SSPA; A 2004 Update of On-Orbit Reliability; IEEE-IVEC May Weekly, Nicol, Mangus 2. TWTA versus SSPA; A New Look at Boeing Fleet On-Orbit Reliability Data and Comparison Factors; IEEE-IVEC April Nicol, Mangus, DePano 3. TWTA versus SSPA; On-Orbit Reliability of the Boeing Satellite Fleet; IEEE-IMS May Nicol, Mangus, Grebliunas 3

6 SSL On-Orbit Satellite Fleet Details (3 of 4) TWTAs used: TWTs from L3-ETI (Torrance) and Thales ED (Ulm & Velizy) EPCs from L3-ETI and Tesat Spacecom TWTAs are configured with: Single and dual EPCs Conduction-cooled and radiation-cooled TWTs Statistics include only M-coated cathodes (both dispenser type B and MM) 4

7 SSL On-Orbit Satellite Fleet Details (4 of 4) The majority of SSL TWTA heritage is C-Band and Ku-Band. 5

8 Considerations Within the Analysis (1 of 4) SSL records two types of hardware failures on-orbit. Hard Failures: TWTA operational service is lost or TWTA health cannot be guaranteed. Transponder must be switched to a redundant pathway. Soft Failures: Anomalous TWTA behavior which does not affect RF performance. TWTA remains operational; Operator may or may not choose to switch pathway. This analysis reports only hard failures. 6

9 Considerations Within the Analysis (2 of 4) Types of Hard Failures: Random: Failure within the unit. Known or Unknown Non-Random: Unexpected failures on units related to satellite-specific issues (i.e., manufacturing, test, integration, operational environment, etc.) 7

10 Considerations Within the Analysis (3 of 4) Reliability rates calculated in FITs Failures in Time (10 9 hours) Calculated with a 60% confidence level Created to: Assess true hardware performance Provide guidance on required redundancy Assist in insurance evaluation Identify latent trending (frequency, spacecraft, amplifier age, etc.) 8

11 Considerations Within the Analysis (4 of 4) FIT rate calculation method: Based on exponential distribution (constant failure rate) Failure rate (I) is defined as r failures over t accumulated on-orbit unit hours x10 9 or, I = (r/t)* % confidence level upper-bound estimate of I using CHIINV function in Excel: [=(CHIINV(1-0.6, 2r+2))/2t] NOTE: Inverse-Chi-Squared distribution method is a fundamental approach used throughout the space reliability industry and used in the reference papers [1-3]. 9

12 SSL TWTA Reliability (1 of 6) TWTA Failures by downlink band for SSL Fleet The majority of TWTA failures are at Ku-Band. 10

13 SSL TWTA Reliability (2 of 6) TWTA reliability performance for SSL Fleet More than 90% of the SSL Fleet sees no more than one TWTA failure. 11

14 SSL TWTA Reliability (3 of 6) Due to planned redundancy, amplifier failures have little to no long-term impact on satellite communications capability 71% of fleet satellites have no TWTA failures to date 8.4% of fleet has 2 or more TWTA failures 12

15 SSL TWTA Reliability (4 of 6) 66% of all TWTA failures occur within the first 5 years of operation. 13

16 SSL TWTA Reliability (5 of 6) Exact FIT rates are considered proprietary to SSL Relative FIT rates of TWTAs are not proprietary The majority of the data provided is considered to be random failures, with one or two non-random failures FIT rates for TWTs & EPC can be extracted from the TWTA FIT rate (when/if exact root cause of on-orbit failure is confirmed) If root cause cannot be confirmed, failure is split between TWT and EPC. 14

17 SSL TWTA Reliability (6 of 6) Relative TWTA FIT Rate for SSL Fleet Year over year continuous decrease in TWTA FIT Rate for SSL Fleet. 15

18 Reliability Rates for Single & Dual EPC (1 of 1) EPC Relative FIT Rate for SSL Fleet Note: 2009 was chosen as the beginning of FIT rate comparison as it represents enough accumulated on-orbit operating hours for Dual EPCs to be considered statistically significant. 16

19 Comparative Results to Previous Studies (1 of 9) A detailed analysis of TWTA FIT rate was performed by Nicol, et al. in 2013 [3]. The following data represents an attempt to create a composite of all available datasets. This composite accounts for: Over 420 million TWTA Operational Hours or 48,000 Amplifier Year On-Orbit. Over 188 GEO Communication Satellites Reported TWTA operating hours of both datasets are very similar: Nicol: 211M in 2012 SSL: 210M in

20 Comparative Results to Previous Studies (2 of 9) Comparison of TWTA Failures per Spacecraft 18 Failure statistics of both datasets are extremely similar.

21 Comparative Results to Previous Studies (3 of 9) Comparison of TWTA Failure Age 19 Failure statistics of both datasets are extremely similar.

22 Comparative Results to Previous Studies (4 of 9) Comparison of EPC Relative FIT Rate as of 2012 Dual and Single EPC FIT rate trends are very similar. 20

23 Comparative Results to Previous Studies (5 of 9) Comparison of TWTA Relative FIT Rate TWTA FIT rates are not similar. SSL FIT change much larger. 21

24 Comparative Results to Previous Studies (6 of 9) The previous graph shows that the SSL data has a significantly larger change in FIT than that of previous analyses. SSL relative FIT rate is based off of a large sample with fewer years on orbit than those reported in previous studies. A correction factor is necessary to accurately compare both datasets. The following plot attempts to correct this artifact and account for the younger age of amplifiers. The SSL data is scaled linear based on the Nicol, et al. reported 2012 TWTA operating years and the SSL 2012 TWTA operating years. This creates a composite Industry Relative FIT Rate and speaks to the industry trend in Space TWTA Reliability. 22

25 Comparative Results to Previous Studies (7 of 9) Relative Space TWTA Industry FIT Rate The scaled datasets show very similar trends in TWTA FIT Rate. 23

26 Comparative Results to Previous Studies (8 of 9) Space TWTA FIT Rate change per year Decreasing FIT Rate Increasing FIT Rate 24 Continuous year over year decrease in TWTA FIT Rate.

27 Comparative Results to Previous Studies (9 of 9) The combined TWTA Industry Relative FIT Rate shows an optimistic trend in commercial space TWTA reliability performance. A year over year change in TWTA FIT Rate of -7.5 FITs/year with a strong linear correlation (r 2 >0.95). The combined dataset appears to smooth out any unique lot related or rash problems which could account for any significant peaks in individual datasets. 25

28 Conclusions (1 of 2) Summary of Facts: The majority of the SSL Fleet suffers no TWTA failures over the entire mission life. >90% see one or fewer failures. SSL TWTA FIT rates are decreasing. The majority of failures are at Ku-Band. This is likely due to the high-power nature of this band rather than the specific frequency. The SSL TWTA On-Orbit Reliability matches extremely closely with similar studies [3]. 26

29 Conclusions (2 of 2) When combining the previous study s data and the SSL data, common trends are realized which give a more complete picture of Space TWTA Reliability. Space TWTA Industry FIT Rate is continuously decreasing. It is clear that the TWTA suppliers are continuously improving their manufacturing processes and FIT rates are steadily dropping over time. The combined data shows that this improvement appears to be independent of spacecraft integrator or customer unique testing and/or screening plans. Unique lot related or rash problems occur time to time and process out without significant impact on industry FIT rate. Data indicates that as one integrator may get a problem, the other integrator may avoid the same issue. A detailed comparison of each dataset is required to further determine if this is related to hardware purchasing timeframe or just coincidence. 27

30 Thank You For Your Attention! 28 View publication stats

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